argentus maximus's Contributions

The Ballad of Turdville

Wednesday, April 5, 2023 - 8:00am

In Turdville town, at the foot of the hill,

Lived folks with hearts full of goodwill.

But atop the hill, in a shadowy lair,

Lurked the Cabal-Grinch, with a covetous stare.


The villagers had gold and silver so bright,

That shone in the sun...

Silver - Are Long Term Cycles Real and Practical?

Tuesday, October 4, 2022 - 10:45am

A review of silver cycle forecasts of the past, with a look forward.

Whatever size you have in mind, think bigger!

Saturday, June 12, 2021 - 8:45am

I want to talk about EMPIRE, state of empire, end of empire, and change within empire. There may be a pulse ,a timing, a rhythm in these matters and I'm going to look into this aspect of empires, im particular the one in which we ourselves live.

Five hundred years ago THE HOLY ROMAN...

Silver and those Long Cycles

Sunday, December 13, 2020 - 7:02pm

A look at some long term silver price cycles to see how they have survived the crazy times we currently live in. Or just possibly, are the crazy times because of these long cycles ?

Trump offers leadership, then sells the masses..., by Argentus Maximus

Sunday, May 17, 2020 - 7:32pm

This post originally appeared in the free forums of TFMR ( ) . Many thanks to longtime contributor, Argentus Maximus, for all his efforts to keep...

Where is that Gold cycle now?

Monday, January 20, 2020 - 3:44pm

Several years ago, and before the December 2015 low, I posted here about one particular gold cycle.

To be frank about this subject, there is open dissent about whether time cycles exist in financial markets at all, or if there are quasi time cycles. Or if alternatively this markets...

Popular Sentiment - Psychology of The Zeitgeist.

Divide your enemies and conquer them. What is happening today in politics fits this adage. Sovereigns are playing their big game again.

Saturday, April 13, 2019 - 2:56pm

Popular sentiment - psychology of the zeitgeist.

I called it "psychology of the zeitgeist", but I considered calling something like "When Everyone Has Their Own MKUltra" instead just for a minute. Just considered it for a moment, but state of the art as at that particular post WWII...

If You're Planning Dinner While On The Way Home, Who Is Driving the Car?

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 - 5:35pm

Winning at trading is one of the pinnacles of achievement and the majority of trader-investors try and fail in their attempt. But some of those we use the term "Master Traders" talk to us in terms of Zen, Inner Mind, Psychology, and Sentiment. Why are they talking like this instead of using news cycle terminology, or economics terminology? What are they trying to tell the beginner? And ..when they do tell it, why is their message so difficult to accommodate into our financial worldview? Why do beginners embrace bad information and keep going back to the same sources?

Some ideas on this from Argentuis Maximus.

Sentiment Naturally Changes With Each Skirmish, As The Financial War Proceeds

Monday, July 3, 2017 - 8:38am

As every bear market passes certain milestones, or landmarks, defining its phases, we should expect to see sentiment alter, indeed change in certain ways to confirm that the bear is still moving on its discerned course towards the next big price swing's birth.

- Argentus Maximus

Do Gold Mining Stock Prices Follow Cycles?

Saturday, June 24, 2017 - 10:15pm

Argentus Maximus writes: Newmont is due to make a cycle low between 2015 and 2017. It might have already done so, but if it hasn't, there might be a buying opportunity during the latter part of this year, say the coming 12-18 months. Do your own due diligence!

On the Nature of Cash, Bonds, Digital Cash, and the Derivative Market

Tuesday, May 23, 2017 - 1:26pm

What factor(s) specifically give(s) a Federal Reserve Dollar Note it's value? A Pound Sterling coin it's value? A five Euro note? A T-Bond or Bund? How about a Venezuelan Bolivar?

What gives a currency longevity overcoming the attacks from external powers? Power? Faith? Reputation? The alternatives currently available, or lack of alternatives possibly? And when a new alternative becomes available, from where does it truly get it's value? From where does it derive it's value ..... ?

Perspective and Scale are The Hardest Things In A Short Term Market Environment

Saturday, February 18, 2017 - 10:20am

How many lows does it take to end a four years minimum bear? How much separation does a secondary low, before or after the main low, have to nave to qualify as a bottoming consolidation? There are no fixed answers, just experience, some reluctance to follow false storytellers, and musing upon the facts as they appear at the time. Here are Argentus Maximus's weekend thoughts.

Cycles, Mindsets, Where Some Mindsets Come From, Reaction to Shock

Friday, July 15, 2016 - 3:08pm

Ever hear the phrase "disaster capitalism". Not yet?

In that case, read on ....

Does "600" Plus or Minus Matter When We're Talking Tonnes of Gold?

Monday, June 6, 2016 - 8:22am

The Global Gold Supply Data Saga flies back into our radar in it's latest newest iteration.

This time it's only 600 tonnes of gold that is "coming and going". Only 24 billion bucks of vagueness ......

A2A with Pining For the Fjords and Argentus Maximus

Thursday, May 26, 2016 - 11:30am

Two of TFMetalsreport's independent contributors got together today and had a 3/4 hour conversation about markets, the times we live in, questions from many Turdites and a few things more. They recorded their conversation for this week's A2A podcast.

Would You Recognize a Slow Motion Collapse If One Was Right In Front of You?

Monday, May 16, 2016 - 1:36pm

The human eye, and intellect, senses motion with great acuity. Predators sneak in slowly at first and then when within striking distance they rush the last part. Events can work in a similar way. If something like an economic event moves slow enough it's approach may become invisible, except by periodic comparison with the stationary background. At the end comes the rush. So comparisons with events that crept up on other people unnoticed are a worthwhile exercise for the prepared.

I give you the fiat currencies of Venezuela and the US. Nothing in common? OK so. Move on then - there's nothing to see here.

The Golden Bear of 2011 (continued)

Wednesday, December 16, 2015 - 11:25am

Two and a quarter years ago Argentus Maximus wrote a gold forecast in his Blog. Here is the look back at how it worked out.

The LBMA, Thomson/Reuters GFMS, and The 2000 Tonnes of Gold that Just Appeared in 2013

Tuesday, September 8, 2015 - 9:49am

A comparison by Ronan Manly at BullionStar between an LBMA report pdf file and the earlier saved version of the same named file suggests that 2000 tonnes of gold in 2013 was shall we say "redefined" by way of explanation as to where it may have originated?

Taxpayers and gold ETF stockholders might like to have an audit of their central bank vaults and/or ETF vaults completed ASAP, as well as of their accounting books relating to gold transactions during 2013, just to be absolutely sure everything is present and correct and nothing fishy was going on. Simple reassurance will surely be issued, but audits seem appropriate given the amounts of capital involved.

Poker Meets Dominoes Played on Rickety Tables

Wednesday, August 26, 2015 - 8:49am

Can we assume it's not the stock market? Given the week's crashy style of markets I mean! Hah! But let's play a game of assume it's not the stock market . And I have Central Bankers going crazy in October, so if it's not the stock market what else might it be? Calling Japan ... come in Japan .... Japan, are you there? Japan! ........ California, Illinois ... Greece ... Ukraine .... Anybody in bondland.... please answer ... How did we land inside this zombie movie?

What else might it be? Let me consult my current issue of " Trusty Doomster's List of Worries ". Ah, here we are .....

Monthly Gold Cycles

Sunday, August 9, 2015 - 12:11pm

Monthly Gold Cycles by Argentus Maximus

This is pretty much presented without comment, except to suggest that you might like to look up the various cycle period lengths found, and go try them out for yourself to see how well they do or don't fit the fresh events gradually becoming included into the valuation of gold.