Argentus' Golden Quarter

I'm an analyst of market rhythms. At basic level this would be looking at market cycles, but there are other rhythms which are intermittent, or once off, or even created by weather events, or created by market manipulators behind the scenes, and that is the kind of thing I specialize in.

The Setup For The Big Trade forum at TFMR contains a single stream of my research relating to gold and silver in particular, freely available in text form. Approximately every 4th week I post a more macro article which can be found in my blog at TFMR, in Argentus's Golden Quarter. My subscription video newsletter is released several times a week with this and similar information about other markets too. It's called Rhythm 'n Price (RNP) and is both long term and short term in nature with specific trading ideas.

If You're Planning Dinner While On The Way Home, Who Is Driving the Car?

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Winning at trading is one of the pinnacles of achievement and the majority of trader-investors try and fail in their attempt. But some of those we use the term "Master Traders" talk to us in terms of Zen, Inner Mind, Psychology, and Sentiment. Why are they talking like this instead of using news cycle terminology, or economics terminology? What are they trying to tell the beginner? And ..when they do tell it, why is their message so difficult to accommodate into our financial worldview? Why do beginners embrace bad information and keep going back to the same sources?

Some ideas on this from Argentuis Maximus.

Sentiment Naturally Changes With Each Skirmish, As The Financial War Proceeds

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As every bear market passes certain milestones, or landmarks, defining its phases, we should expect to see sentiment alter, indeed change in certain ways to confirm that the bear is still moving on its discerned course towards the next big price swing's birth.

- Argentus Maximus

Do Gold Mining Stock Prices Follow Cycles?

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Argentus Maximus writes: Newmont is due to make a cycle low between 2015 and 2017. It might have already done so, but if it hasn't, there might be a buying opportunity during the latter part of this year, say the coming 12-18 months. Do your own due diligence!

On the Nature of Cash, Bonds, Digital Cash, and the Derivative Market

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What factor(s) specifically give(s) a Federal Reserve Dollar Note it's value? A Pound Sterling coin it's value? A five Euro note? A T-Bond or Bund? How about a Venezuelan Bolivar?

What gives a currency longevity overcoming the attacks from external powers? Power? Faith? Reputation? The alternatives currently available, or lack of alternatives possibly? And when a new alternative becomes available, from where does it truly get it's value? From where does it derive it's value ..... ?

Perspective and Scale are The Hardest Things In A Short Term Market Environment

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How many lows does it take to end a four years minimum bear? How much separation does a secondary low, before or after the main low, have to nave to qualify as a bottoming consolidation? There are no fixed answers, just experience, some reluctance to follow false storytellers, and musing upon the facts as they appear at the time. Here are Argentus Maximus's weekend thoughts.

Cycles, Mindsets, Where Some Mindsets Come From, Reaction to Shock

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Ever hear the phrase "disaster capitalism". Not yet?

In that case, read on ....

Does "600" Plus or Minus Matter When We're Talking Tonnes of Gold?

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The Global Gold Supply Data Saga flies back into our radar in it's latest newest iteration.

This time it's only 600 tonnes of gold that is "coming and going". Only 24 billion bucks of vagueness ......

A2A with Pining For the Fjords and Argentus Maximus

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Two of TFMetalsreport's independent contributors got together today and had a 3/4 hour conversation about markets, the times we live in, questions from many Turdites and a few things more. They recorded their conversation for this week's A2A podcast.

Would You Recognize a Slow Motion Collapse If One Was Right In Front of You?

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The human eye, and intellect, senses motion with great acuity. Predators sneak in slowly at first and then when within striking distance they rush the last part. Events can work in a similar way. If something like an economic event moves slow enough it's approach may become invisible, except by periodic comparison with the stationary background. At the end comes the rush. So comparisons with events that crept up on other people unnoticed are a worthwhile exercise for the prepared.

I give you the fiat currencies of Venezuela and the US. Nothing in common? OK so. Move on then - there's nothing to see here.

The Golden Bear of 2011 (continued)

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Two and a quarter years ago Argentus Maximus wrote a gold forecast in his Blog. Here is the look back at how it worked out.

The LBMA, Thomson/Reuters GFMS, and The 2000 Tonnes of Gold that Just Appeared in 2013

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A comparison by Ronan Manly at BullionStar between an LBMA report pdf file and the earlier saved version of the same named file suggests that 2000 tonnes of gold in 2013 was shall we say "redefined" by way of explanation as to where it may have originated?

Taxpayers and gold ETF stockholders might like to have an audit of their central bank vaults and/or ETF vaults completed ASAP, as well as of their accounting books relating to gold transactions during 2013, just to be absolutely sure everything is present and correct and nothing fishy was going on. Simple reassurance will surely be issued, but audits seem appropriate given the amounts of capital involved.

Poker Meets Dominoes Played on Rickety Tables

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Can we assume it's not the stock market? Given the week's crashy style of markets I mean! Hah! But let's play a game of assume it's not the stock market . And I have Central Bankers going crazy in October, so if it's not the stock market what else might it be? Calling Japan ... come in Japan .... Japan, are you there? Japan! ........ California, Illinois ... Greece ... Ukraine .... Anybody in bondland.... please answer ... How did we land inside this zombie movie?

What else might it be? Let me consult my current issue of " Trusty Doomster's List of Worries ". Ah, here we are .....

Monthly Gold Cycles

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Monthly Gold Cycles by Argentus Maximus

This is pretty much presented without comment, except to suggest that you might like to look up the various cycle period lengths found, and go try them out for yourself to see how well they do or don't fit the fresh events gradually becoming included into the valuation of gold.

Looking Forwards from 7 Months Back May Help Clarify the Fog

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Argentus Maximus talks about the current July 2015 gold price break and releases his Rhythm and Price video newsletter of November 2014.

Sales and Power: Fear, Reassurance, Criticism, Acceptance, and the "What's That" Moment

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Personal balance and an enquiring curious critical mindset are essential for making successful investments in financial markets. Personal balance ia also required to deal with bad or partial information, and also to contain inner tendencies for making a tilted inner evaluation of a neutral external situation.

Then there are the manipulating strings connected to us which make us act as puppet, jumping and dancing to the pull of those ever so tenuous and totally invisible "strings".

After a while of looking hard we begin to notice some of the strings, and eventually we trace them back and discover that many people, organizations, random events or even nature itself are all pullers of our strings. We are a part of our environment, gifted with intelligence, and it is better for us if we use it.

Argentus Maximus, May 2015.

randomness