Monthly Gold Cycles

Sun, Aug 9, 2015 - 12:11pm

This is presented without much comment, except to suggest that you might like to look up the various cycle period lengths found, and go try them out for yourself to see how well they do or don't fit the fresh events gradually becoming included into the valuation of gold.

So you might say the table contains the meat and the price chart is a conversation piece.

I enclose below a list of the monthly gold cycles found in gold prices from 1924 to the present.

There's plenty of material there for readers willing to compare probability scores with the cycles being talked most widely about on the internet blogosphere. You might get a surprise or two if you look hard enough.

For those who consider September 2015 is a vital time for various reasons: In the graph at top I plotted two 60+ month cycles in combined form and these two appear to make a turn about that time, but I caution against a simplistic interpretation because the other cycles have not gone away.

Better to look at how those interacted at their last turns and see what they accounted for and failed to account for back then, add a load of doubt about today's markets being "different" possibly too if you think that may be the case.

Then look up the other potentially interesting periods in the list below, and check to see if they are worth further investigation.

That's it for today!

Best of luck to all.

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice. The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.

About the Author


Aug 9, 2015 - 12:14pm

Thanks, AM!

Always appreciated.

gold slut
Aug 9, 2015 - 12:45pm


Now two read!

Just a second, I am as well!

Mr. Fix
Aug 9, 2015 - 1:15pm
gold slut
Aug 9, 2015 - 2:16pm

Great article AM

If this cycle event is as powerful in effecting markets as it would appear, then all the efforts of TPTB to control the PM prices can only make short term differences to the markets. Put me in mind of when, as a child, we used to build the biggest and strongest sand castle we could. When the tide got up to us, we would sit inside and watch the first few waves strike the walls. We would throw more sand on and repair as quickly as we could, and for a little while, with huge efforts, we hold back the tide, but always ended up under five feet of water!

Your article cheered me up no end AM. Do your worst JPM, here comes the tide!

Aug 9, 2015 - 4:12pm


Why does your sine wave amplitude get shorter over time. Thanks for giving us some meat to chew on today, argentus.

P.S. Got me some new plumbing supplies in the mail this week!

- H.

Aug 9, 2015 - 4:40pm

Amplitude can vary over time.

Amplitude can vary over time. Sometimes the variation is cyclical, like as in a wave and a carrier wave as used by analogue broadcasting.

This could be from three causes, I usually expect the first of these to be the cause:

Two cycles of similar but not identical lengths are together. Slowly the shorter wave "gets ahead" of the longer wave, and when it gets into opposite polarity it begins to have a cancelling effect on the amplitude of the longer wave. When you add these waves together the amplitude of one varies according to the wavelength of the other as the move into or out of phase for while. In technical analysis this causes triangles and megaphone formations.

A carrier wave is modulating it's amplitude in response to an embedded other wave.

A single cycle is expanding or constricting amplitude due to the cause increasing in power, or a damping effect (traders trading the cycle) in absence of repeated input. Best example I can give is the bell gradually gets quieter if you stop striking it. Figuring out the fundamental cause underlying a cycle is sometimes easy and sometimes impossible, but if you can figure out original cause it may be possible to see if that cause is ended or growing weaker.

In this case the first applies. We apparently have a 64 and a 67 together.

Safety Dan
Aug 9, 2015 - 8:11pm

Important To Understand Big Lie of Economics

King of the Paupers: Big Lie of Economics: Inflationgate hides Shift B Inflation

The Banking Systems Engineer's Miracle Equation proving interest does not fight inflation. Inflation is not more money chasing the goods, Shift A, it's Shift B, the same money chasing less goods after foreclosure caused by interest. Banking on Earth as it is in Heaven.

Watch this 10 minute video till the end and understand the lie; rising interest rates will stop inflation. Interest does not fight inflation, see why....

Great cycle info AM. Thanks for your posts.

Aug 9, 2015 - 10:51pm

Thanks Argentus

Thanks Argentus for the discussion of cycles, which are imbedded in Mother Nature, and even the dart throwing monkeys at the Fed cannot delay indefinitely the arrival of cycle and sentiment shifts and changes via the uneconomical purchasing of Propaganda Index futures, as the bearish divergences are building under the surface in our beloved Equities Casinos, which are stress cracks that are developing, that indicate that seismic market changes are in the offing. Richard Russell was on KWN recently and remarked that it is as if the Fed is only inhaling, and will only allow inhaling, as this relates to running the Equities Casinos straight up for over six years, but inhalation without subsequent exhalation is just not possible in the realm of reality, over the passage of sufficient time.

Some people smarter than me think that sentiment will shift back to the positive in the Gold Casino when "Stalks" finally crack, which makes perfect sense to me. Banker mouse click bullion that is dumped on to the electronic floor of the tungsten casino has successfully blunted every single rally since the Obama Gold Sale of April 2103, and in my opinion, this "manipulation" has only been successful because of the concurrent inflation of "approved by the establishment" equities pixels, which has allowed the narrative to play out among the big price setting players in the market (not little hoarders) that we don't need gold any more because everything is okay and we can all just play patty cakes with these Truman Show markets, and do what we're told.

A grand reversal in the GLD/SPX ratio may possibly be getting set up here, and we just don't know if the next gold rally will be the one or not. Holding just the right amount of dry powder is a good idea--not so much that you will kick yourself if the next rally fools everyone and keeps on going, and not too little powder to where you are remorseful about going "all in" right now, and then need a major diaper change when we dip down to 980-1030 on a final puke job, which has been the knife catching case all the way down for so long now, that the pain endured by such behavior exceeds the ability of most human beings to stay the course after all "we" have been through.

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