Perspective and Scale are The Hardest Things In A Short Term Market Environment
Next time is the one according to Adam Hamilton of Zeal Intelligence.
It's an interesting, if technical, read into the volume of gold stocks traded during the 2016 rally, and worth a few minutes imo. Adam's work usually is, and I like the way he creates what might be called fresh- ways-to-look-at-it charts.
This matches with my long expressed views that we need to see a longer term retest of lows (end 2015) before the long term bear can be assaulted successfully.
So ... was end of 2016 it? I'm not sure about that. A retest needs to be some cyclic period later after the original high or low. If I chose a business cycle (as it remains after coordinated central bank attempts to overcome it) then the retest would be 3-4 years after the first low. If alternatively the dual political cycle (parties dominate propaganda and money so well that they get two terms instead of one before the public wakes up and chucks their asses out) is the dominant one, then a period of eg 8 years may be required after the first low to create the retest and/or possibly divergent second low. There's that eight year period coming up again.
But the attention span of gold trading people is so short that eg a four year rise followed by eg a four year fall will always be designated as a bull market followed by a bear. In fact, the observable tendency is to lose perspective after less than twelve months. Which means that the rally off the 2015 lows gets to be a bull swing. But inside I'm, like, "Hmmmm, that's a nice bear market pullback there".
And so it all goes back to perspective and scale, as it always does. I can't remember who said it but the gist of the old market saying was "When you're in doubt, throw your chart on the floor and get up and stand on your desk. Then look down at the chart to see what you couldn't see before."
Which in my view is bearish for gold for a little longer (for the short of attention span) and bullish then bearish then very bullish for gold (for those who are in my particular timescale or preferred groove in Setup For The Big Trade). But since we all make mistakes, it's unwise to sell all at the tops in case it takes off (on a bigger scale). For the same reason it's also unwise to decide there will be no more bottoms where good value can be found (in which case we go crazy and sell the house/car/wife/kids to buy gold immediately as the bullion dealers (and their article-writing-podcasting-bull-analysts) perpetually provide motivation for us to do .
So what is "acceptable" perspective? Well, the last big gold bull took 11-13 years depending on which low you count from. And we got two major highs depending upon which currency you prefer to use to value gold. I know 95% of everybody out there uses the dollar only but I think that's myopic. Say we use 2011 for the high. An 11 year bull. Now if we add (only 2/3 of that) eg 7-8 years down, that would take us to 2018-9. So if both a four and an 8 year cycle had been, shall we say "cancelled" by the central bank alliance, when might their battles with reality be expected to next occur? Well our attention might fall upon 2011 + 4 = 2015 (check, gold low visible) and also 2011 + 8 = 2019 (not there yet, be patient and don't panic).
And what we also see is the dollar index playing games with alternate fiat currencies for breakout or not. But that is a see-saw mechanism. - fiat USD one side:fiat other FX other side- I have proposed that the dollar is merely half of the equation vs gold. The other non-dollar USDX currencies are the other half not to be put opposite the dollar, but to be added to the dollar and all fiat together to then be weighed vs gold (and other commodities).
Now the Freegold people say we should look at gold vs oil. That is the gold:oil ratio is persuasive for them. This is implying that oil = all fiat currencies, and in particular the dollar, while they are strong and = gold when FX strength fails. Or it will revert to that every "x" many years. Hmmmmm. Methinks this is dependent upon military might enforcing reserve currency-ness. So it's historical and/but may or may not be presently applicable. I have referenced a few Freegold proponents here at Setup, interviewed BelangP on Youtube for this blog, but I never endorsed the thesis unconditionally, while considering it always worth considering. I watch that ship closely but haven't yet stepped aboard, you might say. I have consideration for it.
You see I never forget that gold is a commodity as well as a currency. Freegold focuses upon the FX side a little too much for my preference, while admittedly not denying the commodity side. I find my thoughts drifting to military strength, territory controlled, territory recently acquired or recently lost, state of empire and such matters at this stage within a Freegold discussion.
But Freegold will assert itself in some newly invented fashion when currency crises arise. Ideas of certain types return to the fore when situation requires it. And Bretton Woods is now 2017-1945 = 72 years ago. What periods matter around that cyclic duration? Seventy two, seventy four, seventy five and seventy six in my view. So: 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021. OK then.
Back to the gold and the best times to buy some, or not buy some: I posit that these times will be at two year anniversaries of the gold high for the currency you prefer to use, and also at an anniversary at which gold is observed to be making lows with accompanying low sentiment. End of 2015 followed by end 2016 are only one year apart. As 2011 and 2012 were. A double top followed by a double bottom? There is a kind of symmetry there...
Scale. Fractals. Symmetry. Asymmetry. Perspective. If I throw a gold chart, metaphorically, on the floor and climb, also metaphorically speaking, upon my desk and look down. That's a single top and a single bottom. Where is the retests? There's no big retest of the top (so we may go back up someday to see how high that is) and there's no retest of the 2015 bottom (uh oh, early gold bulls may get spanked by the various market bear factions out there).
So it's back to bottoming pattern construction, upon a big scale. And let's not get overly choosy about which spike downwards must be designated at "THE ONE" . Go back to that 8 year pattern, and never forget the presence of one year cycles (stocks and bonds) while doing it. I posted on the eight year cycles many times, with extended descriptions here already in the AM blog. For example this one: Gold & 2nd Term US Presidents posted 2 1/2 years ago August 2014. It's still worth a look. Look at the average shape it forms. Different every time. But average. Note the tendency for late pullbacks well after the idealized low.
Those proposed paths forwards for the gold price, set out back then, are currently being followed approximately. In particular, multiple lows usually required to see an eight year gold weak price period through. Think in 2, 4, 8 year periods and range trade accordingly. There's more to it than that of course. But it may help to keep a person out of trouble.
For readers enjoying a long weekend this week. Have a nice break. See you all next week.
The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmAndPrice. The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.