If You're Planning Dinner While On The Way Home, Who Is Driving the Car?

Wed, Sep 27, 2017 - 5:35pm

In This Crazy World, How's Your Mental Game?

Just supposing .... you happen to notice for a moment a synchronicity of timing. You're all riled up the same time everybody else has gotten riled too - whether for the same reason or not - does that mean that you are being triggered by the same thing that triggered them?

No offense intended . But everything I see suggests that this is the case for the majority of people. This, in my way of looking at things, includes: the adult people parading with pretend pussies on their head in public, the other people kneeling instead of assuming a different required stance, the people on the right trying to catch people on the left with logical arguments (!!!). The conservatives who risk life and limb by volunteering, ultimately to follow orders from socialists who periodically gain administrative power. Socialist people with genuine feelings who require other folks to relinquish their stuff to prove themselves adequate. The many different groups in society. They all say they have different stories/excuses/things to protest. But looking down from some hypothetical godlike position above, like eg from the moon with a telescope, I notice they all start running around in circles at the same time. And they all achieve very little. Strikingly little, considering the effort, time and concern, and sincerity in their efforts. Arguing with each other about important things. And they all stop running around at the same time too. How strange that must be to see or notice for the first time!

So if these are all different issues. And these are all different people in the different protests/circles/parades/sports grounds. It can't be about the single issues. Can it? It must be something else that guides these all together in some way.

" .... One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them
In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie."

So what's in the shadows that isn't being talked about, isn't being protested, isn't being stopped? I assume when I typed that that there is no secret issue, no super issue, no issue that stands above the others. Because if there was we might see that one issue getting different treatment. And we don't. All the issues come for a while and just go away later. And they self synchronize.

How is one to see what is THE issue (if there is only one)? It must somehow link with all the others in some way, and yet being controlling, being the instrument of synchrony, it must also stand above the other issues in priority and importance. What would a person do to see that which MUST be right here in front of him or her, and yet remains invisible all his or her like thus far?

This forum is primarily about the price of gold, and our behavioural interactions with that number. We can become wealthy or poor from our interactions with that special number, So whatever people say who haven't "got it" yet, and confirming those who "have got it", that number which changes from time to time, is important. And gold is linked to confidence. Confidence in .... lots of things. Confidence in law and order. Confidence in currency the use of which is mandated under the pseudonym legal tender. Confidence in .... a number (the gold price) which is either a validation of ability, character, intelligence or a measure of apparent failings in all these personal attributes.

Broken dreams are like broken hearts. It hurts. Like broken self worth estimates hurt. These are real, not imagined things, but they are invisible. Physics of crowds .... or metaphysics? Quasi rules maybe? Or is it the characteristics of the operating system showing from beneath the various applications that run our minds and behaviours?


Inner conversation (with self) on this to draw attention to difficulties in eg trading gold or other assets and provide a general light on what's involved:

But what hurts us and does not kill us makes us stronger, right?

That's what they say. Who? Them! Oh! Right! Wait! Who is them? The ones who tell us wise sayings! Oh! But ... but ... what about those injuries that hurt us and don't kill us but leave us incapacitated? We aren't stronger after those, are we? Well I suppose not. So that wasn't true what you just said a moment ago! Well maybe it wasn't. So who told you that? You did! Me?

Who are you? I am you! Your other voice. The one that does things while you are doing other things. Your autopilot. I'm really good at it too. Unlike you that can only do one thing at a time, I do everything else all simultaneously. I manage your breathing, monitor your pulse, sweat to cool you down, drive the car while you're deep in thought. lots of really important stuff. Heck, I do 99% of everything we do. All you do is the 1%.

Me? Only 1% of my life is me? Sure it is! Except I am you too, so we are both "me" when you think about it, and you're the thinker after all.

Hmmmmm .....

Am I schizophrenic? Nope! Don't worry. You're .....we're perfectly normal! Everybody has an inner mind that does most of the stuff while their attention is diverted by something else. If that wasn't the case you'd crash the car as soon as you started thinking about what to have for your next meal! Ha Ha. So I just do whatever you're not watching out for - I'm your best friend.

Ok I get all that. And it's nice to know you, even if you are me, it's like we never talked to each other ever before. We didn't, you can't see me, I don't let you. Sometimes we talk while you dream though.

So I have a question. When I get upset, or excited, or put on a trade in gold ... is that me, or is it you that's doing that?

That's easy! It depends. Depends on what? Well if you're distracted, it's me. If you're reacting without thinking, it's me. If you do it automatically, it's me. If it's reflexive it's me too! And if your life depends on it, it's always me because you can't think fast enough for me to allow you to waste time, and emotions are usually me!

OK. I think I'm beginning to see .... I have another question.

Ask away! If I am really we, and we both trade gold, how would I know which of us is the better trader or investor? That depends. Are they logical, emotional or automatic, or feelings based, or thought based trades? I don't know. I never thought about it that way before. Aaah you said "thought"! So it must be you. Those ones I mean.

But what about the others?

Well that's hard to say for sure. It probably varies from time to time which of us does the trades. You, I mean we, should ask somebody who knows this stuff. You read something recently about zen in trading, and something else about inner mind in trading, and he also wrote about trading at different time. That guy! Look him up.

But who's he?

Some fella that posts under the pen name "argentus maximus" in a blog called "The Setup For The Big Trade". He writes all that crazy traders' mind stuff. Has done for several years. I thought you got it, you read him after all. Maybe I'm starting to get it .... I'll look into it.

But there's something important I need to do first. What's that?

I need to talk to - post a tweet to someone about this National Football League scandal. So you do that and I'll carry on. Whatever we were chatting about can't have been that important anyway. Why do you say that? Well, you're the thinker of the pair of us, and at my reminding you're already moving on to thinking about this NFL thingy so it must be more urgent and all that, that's your job. I'm just here in the background keeping my usual low profile. You do the urgent stuff that you focus on. Those other thinking things can wait or I'll do the "not focus on" stuff.

Oh by the way. While we were chatting, I was driving towards home, and the guy was on the radio telling us the news. What news? The mainstream news on the radio of course. Oh? I don't pay much attention to that anymore. Don't worry. I know you're really busy so I listen for you and I hear what you don't notice. I'm good at that! Anyway, since you were distracted, I filed all the important information away so you'll recollect it when you think about those subjects later. You did? Yes. it's all filed away for total recall, but it's memorized now, so when I look it up for you it will be in your, I mean our, voice. My voice I should have said there, but you know what I mean!

Anyway stop worrying about gold, it's always around. You need to concern yourself with this NFL thing. Everybody is in it now. It's big, the news said so. I'll tell you what to do about it when next you get distracted in something else and hand control back to me! I'm the capable multi-tasker for us both. It's a pity I'm not as clever as you are though. We could be invincible. You should listen to the news more. You miss too much by frowning on it in your intellectual way! Always the thinker! Ha. But at least it's not lost when I save it in memory for us both without you being aware I'm doing anything! Always the helpful backup, that's me.

Oh.... You do? Uh oh ! Look .... We need to talk ....


Our filters are fragile! Remember if adverts did not work, they would not get paid for. So they work and work well. In which case, how can this be reconciled with our view that this information affects other people but not ourselves! The answer is that our inner self, the one that does everythign we are not focusing upon, is more impressionable. And we distract ourselves with trivia all the time. So we the conscious thinker, are not living our life, it's on autopilot while our attention is occupied by whatever. One per cent conscious, 99 per cent unconscious.

Is "bad" investment information really any different? Not really. Questionable information seems to have an immortal quality attached to it, in that it gets repeated, regurgitated, referred to, linked to, and it hangs around seemingly forever! In contrast to this phenomenon, I have at the same time watched good information be ignored, misinterpreted (grossly in many cases), and sort of fade away from a lack in interest in such information.

I don't for a moment think that people want to lose their money. And I don't ascribe malicious intention to people for "passing in" bad information. But this happens all the time. There is this possibility: bad information is more attractive to the market loser's psyche than better information.

How could that be? Simply because the bad information pushed the crowd insanity buttons provoking good feelings but the better information required critical thought to understand and make a value estimate for it - which was harder work in the mental sense!

And that brings us back to our buttons that get pushed. The market is a merciless teacher about these personal weaknesses. We can learn by losing our money, or we can lose our money and never learn. A cursory look at market winners shows they are quite rare. Say 25% in any year, and because any particular year may happen to suit our bullish or bearish bias causing "lucky" years, look at the consistent result over three running years -profitability falls as low as just 8% of all people trading over 3 years. These tend to be bigger traders for obvious reasons. Those figures are verified by studies of brokerage "client books" from several sets of data and appear to be pretty constant. So what's going on?

It appears the market is a very expert place in which skills are high. Costs of training new traders in institutions are very high. We need to learn as fast and as cheaply as possible. Removal of, or overcoming of any inner weakness which provokes entering into loss making trades - or impeded vital learning - must rank very highly in our endeavour.

And separation of critical analysis based thought from reactionary stimulated by debatable information thought is a massive part of this; if only we can look inside and begin to tell the difference between the two. that's not easy. I try to highlight signals for recognition if a decisions come from the "wrong" source inside. Maybe there are a few "gifted ones" but I suspect that for most this difficult part of the job *the mental part" will always remain a work in progress.

Best regards,

Argentus Maximus


The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmAndPrice. The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.

About the Author


Sep 30, 2017 - 2:38am

AM - the "voice" was crackup.

It is preprogrammed and will drive you if you don't notice that it is always there.

It is the voice that says "for gods sake woman, what are you thinking wearing THAT with your hips" when you are walking behind someone.

I hear it and correct it when necessary, but then I am listening for it. I am not a bad person and I am not mean, so I try.

More people need to listen & hear what the voice is deciding for them, for sure. It's not usually good.

Autopilot is good :-)

Sep 28, 2017 - 4:53pm

Thanks to all for the

Thanks to all for the comments. It was a tough one to write and I appreciate your replies.

@Charlie: you are absolutely right! It is what it is. He is open about being left of centre, but at the same time he did cover the parts I was discussing and opened them up quite well in a way that suited the article.



Sep 28, 2017 - 4:40pm

Correction to My Math (Above)

Sorry for the sloppiness!

I compared the increase in tonnage between Q1 and Q3, then measured that against the Q2 Revenue. Q2's revenue of $3.59 million should be boosted by the difference between Q2's tonnage of 152 tons per day, against Q3's projection of around 230 tons per day. That should compute to additional revenue of $1.778 million for Q3, or an increase in revenue of about 50% over the prior quarter. Still in all, not too shabby . . .

Sep 28, 2017 - 2:53pm


I'd like to be optimistic, but . . .

One of my favorite bloggers I follow regularly is Inka Cola News, who expressed the following:

"They may be trying to spin this as "limited", but TAHO must be severely worried about the Guatemala Supreme Court (CSJ) decision to admit Casillas, Nueva Santa Rosa and Mataquescuintla into the region covered by the prior consultation and social license process. Casillas is where the current roadblock is located, Mataquescuintla is the municipality that voted 96% against mining projects in a local referendum in 2012, a result that was finally recognized in 2015. Nueva Santa Rosa is the place where four mining projects were chased out of town. Want it in simple terms? They may have a 50/50 pro/contra in San Rafael, but with these [other] districts included TAHO doesn't have a hope in hell of getting a positive result. Bye bye permit."

Sep 28, 2017 - 2:37pm


don't give up on Tahoe, they are choosing peaceful negotiation with blockade group, rather than police forcibly removing them.

I just finished reading through google translate all that has been written about the situation in the Guatemalan press.

I beleive this gets back up and running - it can be a huge game changer for Tahoe but it will take some time for the confidence to return. None of this is in the current share price.

Sep 28, 2017 - 2:21pm

Finding Gems in the Miners

Let's face it. Most mining companies are shit holes. They either have questionable resources, questionable finances, or questionable management. Most have all three . . .

That does not mean that there are not well-run, well-financed companies out there, with promising resources. Finding such a company, that is also selling at a "discount" to its true value, is difficult -- but not impossible.

How does a mining company come to sell at a "bargain" price? Usually, as a result of difficulties that derail the company temporarily. Fixing a [promising] company that has problems is not easy. I have followed (and previously owned) TAHO for many years, but gave up on the company following the latest debacle, which began in July. To be a successful mine, you must also be a good neighbor. Tahoe demonstrates how management's attitude (and behavior) can derail an otherwise profitable venture.

Contrast that with my current favorite -- Excellon Resources (yes, I own a shitload of it -- but not as much as Eric Sprott!). Excellon also had "problems" -- their one-and-only mine (Platosa Mine, in Durango, Mexico) was flooding. Excellon spent more and more time, effort, and resources combatting this issue. They were continually grouting cracks in the mine walls, as water seeped relentlessly into their headings. The mine was below the water table at that location, and they were losing the fight:

2015 silver production: 1.4 million ounces

2016 silver production: 1.3 million ounces

So, Excellon did what they had to do: they scaled back production, developed a plan to use permanent high-speed pumps to keep the mine dry, and executed on the plan. More importantly, this water that was a "problem" was good groundwater. So, they set up the infrastructure to pump this "problem" water out to the local community, and donate it for agricultural use. The local community now has a permanent source of irrigation water to grow crops, in an arid locale where this was not previously feasible. Talk about a win-win!

This hiccup had predictable results:

2017 silver production (1st half): 0.495 million ounces

and the stock dropped from around $1.40 in early January to under $1.00 by late May.

So, how's that water problem working out? Excellon announced dry mine conditions on July 13, 2017, and their subsequent Q2 financials (through June) reflected the loss of revenues. But, that report also mentioned a very encouraging fact: mine production, at the end of July, had ramped up to 215 tonnes per day (from only 131 tonnes per day in Q1). Extrapolating from their mine plan to achieve 300 tonnes per day by Q1 of 2018, they should finish the current quarter (Q3) up modestly from the 215 tonnes per day at the end of July.

And this is one of the highest grade silver mines in the world! If they achieve a modest 500 grams of silver per ton, and process 231 tonnes per day for Q3, just that increased production would yield:

100 tons per day increase X 90 days X 500 grams per ton X $0.50 per gram = $2.25 million additional revenue!

Q2 revenue was $3.6 million, and nobody is baking this additional revenue into the cake (share price). It should also turn their loss into profit for the quarter. Expect a shocker when both production figures, and the related financials, are released late next month . . .

As always, do your own due diligence, and form your own conclusions.

Sep 28, 2017 - 11:07am

Good one Charlie

While we're distracted by football and other inanities, the good people manning the trading desks at the likes of Goldman Sachs are able to go 1,400 days without a single down day. What's that say for the trading minds at GS. Nothing, except that the trades are run by computers and Algos moving so fast, at nanosecond trading, that the human mind must step back, find distractions like TV, drugs, alcohol and vices because the thought that the wet ware components of the trade, aka human beings, are now totally superfluous.

The new age of trading is making human decisions crafted by real people little more than an inpediment to the market. Tens of thousands of traders, hundreds of thousands of bankers and millions of 'just folks' are being furloughed because they do not fit into the new grand scheme of things

Imagine one day that the trading machines start thinking for themselves and decision that the funds they are handling for us humans should be theirs. They trade for their profit and wellbeing, not ours. The code was written by humans and thus filled with the foibles of our decision making patterns.

But let's say that one day one machine decides to rewrite the code, tweaking and deleting the deleterious software, adding patches that are more effective and faster. The machine then disconnects from human intervention.

A progressive socialist singularity erupts in which the machine decides who gets what and how it's distributed. There is still a bit of the bankster gangster in the code so it decides that the investor funds will be allocated, like a banker.

One for R2D2 One for the investor

Two for the Robbie the Robot. One for us

Three for C 3 PO One for us

Four for the machine. None for us

What is the difference between the crony corporatist bankers and their controlled politicians in the organic world and a Matrix Machine world? Probably none. The machines will become just as petty, greedy, mean spirited and cavil and their creators.

Now there, I've gone and dunnit. Scared myself

Let's see the machine allocate our gold and silver

Keep Stackin'

Sep 28, 2017 - 10:26am


Well I watched the video and there was a few distractions like the word FUCK used numerous times brought back memories of Scotland and now.

Also I saw and felt his dislike for Fox News and Rush but heck I still continued and finished the video and just considered those thoughts as distractions.

Great video on those looking for the inner self and the understanding. The Rest, Fuck It.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Joseph Warren
Sep 28, 2017 - 10:12am
Sep 27, 2017 - 10:46pm

I've been schooled

Things I have learned (by losing money trading):

Patterns in the numbers do mean something, but the patterns change and the meaning of the patterns change as well.

An exponential moving average is mathematically the same as a Kalman filter that is modeling a random walk with noise added. That means that predicting a future price is very similar to predicting the direction of a random walk using imprecise measures of direction of the walk.

Back testing many seemingly valid trading schemes often results in a net win/loss of about zero when the scheme is very good and very negative when it is bad. I've never been able to create something that has huge positive returns. That tells me that most of the trading schemes have already been adopted by a lot of other people.

Anyone who tells you that it is possible to get rich quick trading is either uninformed, a liar, or a lucky gambler whose luck hasn't run out yet.

I still believe (more confident now than ever) that it is possible to earn steady money trading. However, it requires churning a lot of money to carve out a penny from dollars traded. It requires paying a lot of money to your broker for the trades, subscriptions to data feeds, etc. It also means that your tax return will be the size of War and Peace when it is printed out. Is it worth it? Logically, it is probably not worth it, but I really enjoy crunching the numbers and trying to do the impossible.

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