Poker Meets Dominoes Played on Rickety Tables

If a little bird whispered in your ear "SPX 1500 by 12 October" would that seem outrageous?

It just seems too big to make the call, doesn't it? Can we assume it's not the stock market? I think it's more than possible. But let's play a game of assume that it's not the stock market. And I have Central Bankers going crazy then, so if it's not the stock market what else might it be? What are they most worried about?

Calling Japan ... come in Japan .... Japan, are you there? Japan! ........ California, Illinois ... Greece ... Ukraine .... Anybody in bondland please answer ... How did we land inside this zombie movie?

What else might it be? Let me consult my current issue of "Trusty Doomster's List of Worries". Ah, here we are .....

What else? How dare you! Robotics will create wealth, not kill jobs! Next .....

War! Not a chance. The weapons are all safe back at home in the various armouries. No lunatics, warmongers or aspiring global dominators in power anywhere right now! Anyway broken windows create growth says Kruggie & his pals. Hah! Wait till they see the number of windows the military industrial complex can break .... there'll be "growth" for decades when they're done!

Politics? UK? Labour party are now throwing out the voting members for one candidate before a leadership election. What's wrong with that? The Blairite right kicked out the (Labour?) left years ago with great rancour and are not about to get removed themselves by such a thing as a members vote! Cure - boot out the "wrong" members! Nobody is taking desperate measures!

Everywhere else is sweet and happy too! That little thing of shelling between NKorea and SKorea is nothing, neither is Yemen and SA, Ukraine Russia and NATO, the empire skirmishes in Africa, Afghanistan and etc that fail to make the consumer news, those crazy random chemical factory fires with big bangs in China and subsequent Japanese/US munitions fires in Japan are nothing to get alarmed about and communicate nothing immediate or urgent.

FX? Nah! A currency would have to be ma$$ively overbought to provoke such a fa$t unwinding. What could that be? No chance it's FX will do the breaking! Nothing has been going vertical for recent year$ without the slightest economic ju$tification .... no big currency would ever do that....

Hmmmmm. I have often said here that everything is connected like you find hard to believe. Consider connections. they are like dominoes sometimes the connection is only there for that instant of contact when energy passes from the last falling domino to the next apparently steady one. This domino analogy of weakness transferred into what was just before standing solid and steady might be a very good one to describe the situation we are in. What's their word? Systemic fragility. I prefer dominoes!

The setup for the big trade thread contains by now hundreds of before the fact timing forecasts that worked out ...... but past performance is not a guarantee of continuation of same in the future. Anyway if I was better I would have bought zero precious metals before last year ( big lows are back a bit for EU folks) instead of picking away at twice a year lows and itty bitty swing trades at quarterly swings. So what do I know about anything? It's all a grey area and everything could have been done better. Or much worse. The well known market timers have either been repeatedly wrong or are putting it all on September, or gone quiet. At this time not being modest it's fair to say I have nailed shakeout after shakeout and continually describe a global sequential process with impact damage at certain times instead of "the collapse" scenario. If there is a collapse it's a 30 year collapse phase But collapse is renewal in that thing that dies and is replaced at that moment so remember that renewal is also in progress!

So after Friday/Monday of 20-24 August and next week 28-31 AUGUST, there's plenty in September too to be sure, then we arrive at 2nd week of OCTOBER . The punctuation and print size conveys a priority. And so far this is working out. And it's a sequence of geopolitical-economic-violent impacts with November, December, Feb and April, then May, July all containing their part of the action. It's a process!

My pension fund assets are fully hedged and have been for a lot of this year. I put the hedges back in place on the 2 July but they screwed up and implemented my instructions on 9th July. This one expires 9 October ... a bit too soon possibly .... I kind of wish it had a couple days more in it. Oh well. Maybe the markets will explode higher.

We're living in a game of Poker Meets Dominoes played on a rickety table with bankers, money, politicians, generals and ordinance for the domino playing pieces. The players are a bunch of liars cheats and bullies. Nothing to be concerned about, life will go on - it always does - and next year the sky will be still blue! Just avoid becoming acceptable losses in their 2015 power games. You see friends- the players in the great game have not noticed that somebody set up their dominoes in a circle leading back to themselves!

That's it for today!

Best of luck to all.

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice. The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/28

11/28 12:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/28 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/30 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
11/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/30 10:00 ET JOLTS
11/30 1:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
12/1 8:30 ET PCE and Core PCE
12/1 8:30 ET Consumer Inc and Spend
12/1 9:30 ET Goon Bowman
12/1 9:45 ET S&P Manu PMI
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 8:30 ET BLSBS

Forum Discussion

by Titus Andronicus, Nov 26, 2022 - 10:18pm
by Island Teal, Nov 26, 2022 - 2:54pm
by Titus Andronicus, Nov 14, 2022 - 10:32pm
by argentus maximus, Nov 14, 2022 - 3:19am