Poker Meets Dominoes Played on Rickety Tables

Wed, Aug 26, 2015 - 8:49am

If a little bird whispered in your ear "SPX 1500 by 12 October" would that seem outrageous?

It just seems too big to make the call, doesn't it? Can we assume it's not the stock market? I think it's more than possible. But let's play a game of assume that it's not the stock market. And I have Central Bankers going crazy then, so if it's not the stock market what else might it be? What are they most worried about?

Calling Japan ... come in Japan .... Japan, are you there? Japan! ........ California, Illinois ... Greece ... Ukraine .... Anybody in bondland please answer ... How did we land inside this zombie movie?

What else might it be? Let me consult my current issue of "Trusty Doomster's List of Worries". Ah, here we are .....

What else? How dare you! Robotics will create wealth, not kill jobs! Next .....

War! Not a chance. The weapons are all safe back at home in the various armouries. No lunatics, warmongers or aspiring global dominators in power anywhere right now! Anyway broken windows create growth says Kruggie & his pals. Hah! Wait till they see the number of windows the military industrial complex can break .... there'll be "growth" for decades when they're done!

Politics? UK? Labour party are now throwing out the voting members for one candidate before a leadership election. What's wrong with that? The Blairite right kicked out the (Labour?) left years ago with great rancour and are not about to get removed themselves by such a thing as a members vote! Cure - boot out the "wrong" members! Nobody is taking desperate measures!

Everywhere else is sweet and happy too! That little thing of shelling between NKorea and SKorea is nothing, neither is Yemen and SA, Ukraine Russia and NATO, the empire skirmishes in Africa, Afghanistan and etc that fail to make the consumer news, those crazy random chemical factory fires with big bangs in China and subsequent Japanese/US munitions fires in Japan are nothing to get alarmed about and communicate nothing immediate or urgent.

FX? Nah! A currency would have to be ma$$ively overbought to provoke such a fa$t unwinding. What could that be? No chance it's FX will do the breaking! Nothing has been going vertical for recent year$ without the slightest economic ju$tification .... no big currency would ever do that....

Hmmmmm. I have often said here that everything is connected like you find hard to believe. Consider connections. they are like dominoes sometimes the connection is only there for that instant of contact when energy passes from the last falling domino to the next apparently steady one. This domino analogy of weakness transferred into what was just before standing solid and steady might be a very good one to describe the situation we are in. What's their word? Systemic fragility. I prefer dominoes!

The setup for the big trade thread contains by now hundreds of before the fact timing forecasts that worked out ...... but past performance is not a guarantee of continuation of same in the future. Anyway if I was better I would have bought zero precious metals before last year ( big lows are back a bit for EU folks) instead of picking away at twice a year lows and itty bitty swing trades at quarterly swings. So what do I know about anything? It's all a grey area and everything could have been done better. Or much worse. The well known market timers have either been repeatedly wrong or are putting it all on September, or gone quiet. At this time not being modest it's fair to say I have nailed shakeout after shakeout and continually describe a global sequential process with impact damage at certain times instead of "the collapse" scenario. If there is a collapse it's a 30 year collapse phase But collapse is renewal in that thing that dies and is replaced at that moment so remember that renewal is also in progress!

So after Friday/Monday of 20-24 August and next week 28-31 AUGUST, there's plenty in September too to be sure, then we arrive at 2nd week of OCTOBER . The punctuation and print size conveys a priority. And so far this is working out. And it's a sequence of geopolitical-economic-violent impacts with November, December, Feb and April, then May, July all containing their part of the action. It's a process!

My pension fund assets are fully hedged and have been for a lot of this year. I put the hedges back in place on the 2 July but they screwed up and implemented my instructions on 9th July. This one expires 9 October ... a bit too soon possibly .... I kind of wish it had a couple days more in it. Oh well. Maybe the markets will explode higher.

We're living in a game of Poker Meets Dominoes played on a rickety table with bankers, money, politicians, generals and ordinance for the domino playing pieces. The players are a bunch of liars cheats and bullies. Nothing to be concerned about, life will go on - it always does - and next year the sky will be still blue! Just avoid becoming acceptable losses in their 2015 power games. You see friends- the players in the great game have not noticed that somebody set up their dominoes in a circle leading back to themselves!

That's it for today!

Best of luck to all.

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.

About the Author


silver66 · Aug 26, 2015 - 8:52am


Good point, the end of one thing is the beginning of another

This may not be the place but I would be very curious as to how your pension assets are invested and hedged.


BIGNASTY · Aug 26, 2015 - 9:05am


Here we go!

· Aug 26, 2015 - 9:06am

@Mr FixIt's actually good if

@Mr Fix

It's actually good if you look at it from metals miners point of view.

If stocks are up and miners are down, why buy mining stocks?

But if stocks are down and mining stocks are down more, and down for longer, then miners "become stocks once again".

.... only they are now better value stocks .......

Mr. Fix · Aug 26, 2015 - 9:06am

Another day, another slam down… this IS getting old.

Silver & Gold Slammed As Dollar & Bond Yields Surge

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/26/2015 - 08:09

As the USD levitates along with Treasury yields, so Precious Metals are coming under significant pressure once again...

Could it really just be a circular firing squad? If so, nothing to do, but sit back, watch, and stack! smiley

· Aug 26, 2015 - 9:08am

This is unbelievable. Horrible. Awful.

Mr. Fix · Aug 26, 2015 - 9:12am

@ argentus maximus

I know what you're saying, but since I'm expecting this to bring a complete end to the current system, I wouldn't be sitting on any paper promises to deliver anything. Looking at it from a metal miners point of view, just screams "We are so screwed".

But what do I know?

· Aug 26, 2015 - 9:27am

Today is final day options

Today is final day options and tomorrow final day futures for the month. Lots of "defensive" trading going on by the big boys.

It will pass.

@ Mr Fix:

The complete end to the current system you await is half way completed already. It is not a single event much more a generation or twenty five year period. The 1999 metals low might be characterized as a beginning, the 2011 metals high as a 33% milestone, we might be half way now. Empires take a long time to fall. I could be mistakenly compressing the process to a 10th ! But I have some reasons to place more milestones at the end of the next business cycle whenever that comes. Change happens when money runs out, as it presently has done.

But that's an opinion of course.

Orange · Aug 26, 2015 - 9:35am


Here is the video of the journalist. I had to hit pause as soon as she screams. 

edit: what a totally f'd world we live in

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Recent Comments