Turd's Blog

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets".

You can reach The Turd by visiting the Contact page and selecting "Speak to The Turd" or you can simply send him an email at turd[at]tfmetalsreport[dot]com. If you are polite and not belligerently arrogant, he will probably answer you in short order. If he does not answer you, do not be offended. He's a busy guy and there are only so many hours in a day.

Another Risk-Free Friday

A crazy and volatile week draws to a close.

Friday, August 16, 2019 - 8:28am

On Twitter this morning, I saw where Sven Henrich labeled today as another "risk free Friday", and he's correct. How many times this summer have we seen the "markets" suddenly stabilize and rally into the Friday close? It's magic!

Here's Sven's tweet from a couple hours ago:...

Beware The Ides Of August

Tricky Dick's inglorious legacy endures.

Thursday, August 15, 2019 - 10:39am

August 15 is always an auspicious anniversary as it was 48 years ago today that US President Nixon removed any sound money backing of the US dollar by "temporarily" suspending the convertibility of dollars into gold.

So let's start the day with Tricky Dick, himself. Here's the old...

A Silver Roundtable Discussion

Bill Murphy, Rick Rule, David Morgan and some dope with a MacBook.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 - 3:31pm

Earlier today, it was my distinct pleasure to join Bill Murphy, Rick Rule and David Morgan for a live roundtable and Q&A forum on Philip Kennedy's website. The discussion focused upon the precious metals with a particular emphasis on silver. If you can find the time, you should be sure to...

Batchelor and Cohen Return

The latest on The New Cold War.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 - 3:30pm

Our friends John and Steve returned last evening for another discussion on the perils of The New Cold War.

The big story last week was the failed Russian cruise missile test that seemed to cause a small-scale nuclear/radiation disaster. Why would the Russians be developing these new...

The Curve Of History

Inversions abound and recession looms.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 - 9:55am

Let's see. How many times have we written about the yield curve since 2015? Twenty?? Thirty??? Well, it sure is interesting to watch the entire world catch on...seemingly all at the same time!

Here's what might have been post #1 on this subject from January 28, 2015:...

A Banker Victory

Trade headlines spark a mass rush for the exits.

Tuesday, August 13, 2019 - 10:10am

In yesterday's podcast, we discussed the idea that global turmoil would lead to a continued surge in bond prices which, in turn, would drive another breakout in CDG and CDS. Up until about 6:00 am EDT, it looked like we were well on our way.

Unfortunately, the global bond market then...

A Clear and Obvious Cap at $1520

At least The Banks have given us a clear level to watch!

Monday, August 12, 2019 - 10:35am

For months, we've discussed the price target area of $1480-1520. And now, here we are...a few weeks ahead of schedule, actually. Regardless, the price action over the past few days makes it clear that The Banks understand the importance of this level, too.

Again and as a reminder, the...

Closing The Week

Fake gold is dumped in a clear attempt to manage the weekly close.

Friday, August 9, 2019 - 10:57am

We'll try to keep in brief this morning as it's getting late and, really, not much matters other than where prices finish up the day.

And The Banks clearly know this. They came after BOTH gold and silver HARD as soon as London opened for business at 1:00 am CDT...or 7:00 am London....

Waiting For Friday

The week is far from over.

Thursday, August 8, 2019 - 10:49am

As expected, prices are back down today after the PBOC pegged the yuan mostly unchanged and just a hair above 7 last evening. But as we discussed in yesterday's podcast, let's see what this evening brings and then get ready for an important weekly close tomorrow.

Again, after pegging...

On with Reluctant Preppers

Please listen to the FREE and timely audio.

Wednesday, August 7, 2019 - 10:22pm

Early Wednesday evening, I had the opportunity to visit again with my old friend, Dunagan Kaiser, of Reluctant Preppers. Given the timely nature of the discussion, I'm grateful to Dunagan for his quick turnaround in getting the video posted.

Over the course of this interview, Dunagan...

Comex Gold Surges Past $1500

And/but the week is only half over.

Wednesday, August 7, 2019 - 11:04am

It was a crazy overnight and the madness has extended into the US trading day. Comex precious metal prices are soaring so we need to take time to assess where we are and what to watch for in the hours and days ahead.

Today's action actually began last evening when the PBOC set their...

Surprisingly Stable

Though a turbulent week continues.

Tuesday, August 6, 2019 - 10:57am

Given the rally in stocks and POSX, some selling in bonds and the fact that price is near significant resistance, it's quite interesting that prices are stable this morning.

Seriously. Check some of these moves:

  • The USDCNH has plunged by over 1% from 7.13 to 7.05...this
  • ...

USDCNH Surges Through Seven

How important is 7:1? We're about to find out...

Monday, August 5, 2019 - 11:18am

For the past several years, we've watched the dollar-yuan exchange rate with keen interest, often wondering if gold was directly correlated or simply moving with it in tandem. Often, though, the discussion turned to the potential significance and market impact of a move through seven yuan per...

A Few Post-FOMC Thoughts

2010+9 proceeds along.

Thursday, August 1, 2019 - 11:38am

As hard as it was to watch "the market" reaction yesterday, there really wasn't much actual news that we didn't anticipate. And now today is playing out as expected, as well.

First of all, here's a comment I added to the Wednesday podcast thread...in case you missed it....

Aug19 Option Expiration Day

The Casino claims a few more victims.

Thursday, July 25, 2019 - 9:41am

Comex option expiration day dawns with the usual shenanigans. However, if you're waiting for a dip to buy, you might want to cheer on The Bad Guys.

If you've been following along for a few days, you might recall the chart below. For whatever reason, the $1430 level was clearly chosen...