Turd's Blog

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets".

You can reach The Turd by visiting the Contact page and selecting "Speak to The Turd" or you can simply send him an email at turd[at]tfmetalsreport[dot]com. If you are polite and not belligerently arrogant, he will probably answer you in short order. If he does not answer you, do not be offended. He's a busy guy and there are only so many hours in a day.

Fed Week

Hippity, hoppity. CGP is on his way.

Monday, March 18, 2019 - 10:55am

Here comes Chief Goon Powell, in all his glory. Between now and Wednesday there will be some ups and some downs but the real action won't get going until we see those mid-week Fedlines.

In the meantime, I guess it's nice to see green prices on a Monday morning. That's better than the...

The Ides of St. Patrick

Beware of Triple Witching and too much green beer.

Friday, March 15, 2019 - 10:30am

"Beware Triple Witching Expirations" would be a modern warning to Julius Caesar. But, with the economic data continuing to be miserable, all of us here have nothing to fear as the week looks to end on an UP tick.

After the shenanigans of yesterday, we discussed the idea that a rebound...

More Than Expected

Three steps forward...

Thursday, March 14, 2019 - 10:53am

In yesterday's podcast, we discussed the likelihood and necessity of a short term pullback ahead of next week's FOMC. Well here we are. We weren't expecting $15, however, but I guess that's not surprising, either, given the massive increase in open interest this past week.

And The...

This Week's Batchelor-Cohen

An honest discussion of Russiagate and the New Cold War.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019 - 4:12pm

Your weekly podcast is once again a must listen episode.

A slightly different format this week as Monica Crowley and Christopher Cox join John Batchelor in questioning Professor Cohen and discussing the dangers of "Russiagate" and the New Cold War.

This is a very helpful and...

Rolling Rebound

But don't be surprised if The Banks soon fight back.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019 - 10:44am

Prices continue to recover from last week's lows and CoT wash. We hope to extend further from here in preparation for next week's FOMC and CGP press conference.

Isn't it nice to check your prices first thing in the morning and see green instead of red? It always feels like good things...

More Comex Games

The outrage of fake gold and digitial derivative pricing.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019 - 11:16am

After successfully capping silver through the issuance of 35,000 Comex Digital Silver contracts in February, The Banks are now attempting the same trick in Comex gold. Will they be successful in keeping price below $1300?

"Probably not" is the answer. Even though The Banks have now...

Fighting The Fight

It's going to be a long week.

Monday, March 11, 2019 - 10:42am

A new week begins and the fight continues. We had a decent bounce back on Friday but, as we expected, The Banks are continuing to stymie price near $1300. This sets up a long week of economic data and other news, all while we struggle for every up tick.

The economic data today was the...

BLSBS Never Disappoints

Your once-a-month clown show strikes again.

Friday, March 8, 2019 - 10:45am

Whether it's an upside or downside surprise, the monthly BLSBS never fails to confound all of the big-time economists of Wall Street. And why? Because it's all just a massive scam of statistical assumptions and guesswork!

So today, with everyone on CNBS predicting a "jobs number" in...

Dovish Draghi > Dovish Powell

What a mixed-up, crazy world this is.

Thursday, March 7, 2019 - 9:54am

Let's see if we have this straight...

So Count Draghi emerges from his crypt today to proclaim that the EU economy is slowing rather dramatically. He trimmed his 2019 growth and inflation estimates and the result was a sharp drop in the euro as more ECBQE is now expected:...

Another History Lesson From JBSFC

Another history lesson from Batchelor and Cohen.

Wednesday, March 6, 2019 - 10:13pm

Batchelor and Cohen took time to provide another terrific, objective history lesson last evening. This is the kind of honest dialogue you won't find anywhere else so please make time to listen.

With all of the talk about Russian "meddling" in US affairs, perhaps it would be healthy to...

Here Comes Political Risk

Discord in Washington will lift gold higher.

Wednesday, March 6, 2019 - 10:31am

You may recall that Political Risk was a key component of "The Three Themes for 2018". This was centered around what would take place if the Democrats were to take some control of the US Congress. Well, here we are in March 2019 and it's all beginning to appear, right on cue.

The first...

Bottom Fishing in Comex Silver

Another tradable rally is coming.

Tuesday, March 5, 2019 - 11:06am

In Comex Digital Silver, this latest Spec wash is nearly three full steps back to go with the most recent three steps forward.

You know the drill. Price rallies. Price breaks key technical level. Banks increase float. Price stalls. Price crashes. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

On the...

Monday Lows?

Overbought has become oversold. (A public post.)

Monday, March 4, 2019 - 9:58am

Comex Gold is down again this morning in follow-through selling on the heels of Friday's smash. But the POSX and bonds are stable so the action today may mark a low for now.

For now. I repeat that because this is going to be a long week. There will be no shortage of news and datapoints...

A Discussion of Gold, Silver and Palladium

Some terrific free audio with Bill Murphy of GATA.

Friday, March 1, 2019 - 1:27pm

It's always fun to do these live shows with Phil Kennedy and this segment, recorded Thursday morning, was no exception.

What made this particularly compelling was the opportunity to visit with my old friend, Bill Murphy. He and Chris Powell have been the tip of the spear in the fight...

Leghounds Doing Business

Once they lay into ya, you'd best just let em finish.

Friday, March 1, 2019 - 11:02am

Wow, what a brutal and no-fun week this has been. Every brief rally has been heavily sold as this has no doubt become our first Spec wash-and-rinse of 2019.

Of course, we have no idea of just how much The Banks had gotten over-short by last Wednesday. I guess we'll get some idea later...