Turd's Blog

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets".

You can reach The Turd by visiting the Contact page and selecting "Speak to The Turd" or you can simply send him an email at turd[at]tfmetalsreport[dot]com. If you are polite and not belligerently arrogant, he will probably answer you in short order. If he does not answer you, do not be offended. He's a busy guy and there are only so many hours in a day.

Machine Shed

Tuesday, August 16, 2022 - 10:02am

The bounceback in the POSX continues this morning and The Machines are again taking us to the woodshed with Comex Digital Silver now down a full dollar, or nearly 5%, on the week.

And this is what can happen in August. We've been warning about this type of BS and here we are. The POSX...

A Monday Sea Of Red

Monday, August 15, 2022 - 10:34am

So, after a strong finish to the week and a weekend full of bullish talk about gold's "impending breakout", along comes a global commodity smash. Like we've never seen that happen before...

And though we've endured this countless times, it never gets less frustrating. Just when things...

It Was Almost A Fun Friday

Friday, August 12, 2022 - 10:46am

After an overnight bounce and early Comex session rally, the digital metals were poised to notch a strong finish to the week IF the latest UMich numbers were soft...and, of course, they weren't.

LOL. What can you do. Just another day in the barrel. Apparently, all you need is for the...

The Pressure Eases

Thursday, August 11, 2022 - 10:41am

Today's PPI followed yesterday's CPI in indicating an easing of the relentless price increases seen over the past 18 months. And while inflation and stagflation will remain a problem for months/years to come, the ease is enough to slow and pivot Powell's Fed, regardless of what any assorted...

A Frustrating Morning

Wednesday, August 10, 2022 - 10:17am

After the CPI printed below expectations, bonds rallied and the POSX sharply sold off. This initially led to a surge in the Comex PMs but The Machines have prevailed since and prices have slid all the way back to unchanged on the day.

And that's pretty frustrating. As you know, I was...


Tuesday, August 9, 2022 - 10:54am

Prices are sort of idling today as the gains of yesterday are digested and preparations are made for a volatile Wednesday ahead of the latest CPI report.

Comex gold is higher as I type but Comex silver is down and taking the GDX along with it. This is not surprising, however, and we...

Inflation Week...Again

Monday, August 8, 2022 - 10:22am

Jeezo-weezo, the months go by fast, don't they? Here we are again, staring down the barrel of another CPI report on Wednesday. Didn't we just go through this a few days ago with the report for June? But time it goes so fast when you're having fun...

OK, so now that song is stuck in my...


Friday, August 5, 2022 - 10:20am

Once again, you've been reminded of why we call it the BLSBS. We spent yesterday's podcast explaining again the birth-death adjustment to the BLS methodology and warned that this statistical guesswork would likely provide a significant "head start" to the official BLSBS data today. And boy, did...

A Pre-BLSBS Bounce

Thursday, August 4, 2022 - 10:48am

It has been a busy day for the precious metals. Up all day on physical buying in Asia and London, immediately smashed backward on paper selling in NewYork, only to recover and move back toward the highs as I begin this post.

And again, this has been the prevailing trend as of late....

Goon Wednesday

Wednesday, August 3, 2022 - 10:25am

After yesterday's debacle of three Fed Goon speakers, today brings a total of FIVE more. Goodness, gracious. What a scam world we live in.

Before we begin, did you notice a slightly different layout for the homepage when you arrived today. I've worked with Ron on this for several weeks...