Turd's Blog

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets".

You can reach The Turd by visiting the Contact page and selecting "Speak to The Turd" or you can simply send him an email at turd[at]tfmetalsreport[dot]com. If you are polite and not belligerently arrogant, he will probably answer you in short order. If he does not answer you, do not be offended. He's a busy guy and there are only so many hours in a day.

Floating Higher

Thursday, January 20, 2022 - 10:56am

Commodities are floating higher again today and extending the gains that have already been posted this week. While this is nice, unexpected and very fun, we must remain vigilant for another price slam of the sort we experienced back in November.

It's a Happy Thursday as prices in...

Commodity Surge - Day Two

Wednesday, January 19, 2022 - 10:40am

Hmmm. Well what do we have here? We noted yesterday that, despite some serious strength in the POSX, commodities generally moved higher. And now here we are again today with the full board in the green. What an interesting development.

I hope that you had a chance to listen to last...


Tuesday, January 18, 2022 - 10:06am

It always feel odd to start the week on Tuesday and here we are again after the US market holiday yesterday. It also feels odd to see prices move higher in a short squeeze rather than the usual smash lower. But again, here we are.

So happy Tuesday everyone and I hope you enjoyed the...

Clown World

Friday, January 14, 2022 - 10:55am

If you need an example of just how utterly screwed up the financial markets are in 2022, today provides a perfect example. The data doesn't matter. Only the HFT algo reaction matters.

So happy Friday to everyone. We've finally come to the end of what we knew was going to be a long and...

PPI Piles On

Thursday, January 13, 2022 - 10:48am

The latest reading on producer (wholesale) prices was released today and not only was it at another record high, it indicates no relief in sight for the still-surging consumer price index.

You can read all about today's PPI through various links and websites so here's just the raw data...

Not Transitory

Wednesday, January 12, 2022 - 10:32am

Really, all you can do is laugh. For months in 2021, all we heard from The Fed and their sycophant media was that soaring inflation was "transitory" and now here we are, into 2022, and CPI inflation remains at its highest level in forty years. FORTY YEARS!

And even at 7.0%, it's still...

Here Comes A Doozy

Monday, January 10, 2022 - 10:48am

Oh, boy. This is going to be some kind of crazy week. I hope you're ready for some volatility. Round and round we'll go and where we'll stop, nobody knows.

So I hope you had a nice weekend. And again, for all of us interested in the long term, weeks like this one are just theater...and...

Macrocast 2022: Reality Bites

Friday, January 7, 2022 - 12:11pm

Oh, boy. Here we go again. It's the start of a new year and that means it's time for another adventure in long term price forecasting. Around here we call it a "macrocast" because we figured out long ago that, in a world dominated by computers trading derivatives, if you can get the...

BLSBS Friday

Friday, January 7, 2022 - 10:16am

A lousy first week to 2022 finally ends today after the most recent BLSBS was released. And it's the same old BS...prompting discussions of a rate hike in March. Sometimes all you can do is laugh.

So what was the BS this time? The unemployment rate is now under 4.0%. But the gain of...

Metal Misery

Thursday, January 6, 2022 - 10:36am

Yesterday at this time, prices had fully recovered from Monday's beatings and it appeared that we might be able to escape the week. But then here came the doctored FOMC minutes and now we are right back into misery with our captors still holding us hostage.

On mornings like this, when...