Turd's Blog

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets".

You can reach The Turd by visiting the Contact page and selecting "Speak to The Turd" or you can simply send him an email at turd[at]tfmetalsreport[dot]com. If you are polite and not belligerently arrogant, he will probably answer you in short order. If he does not answer you, do not be offended. He's a busy guy and there are only so many hours in a day.

What's Left Unsaid

Thursday, September 28, 2023 - 10:47am

What's left unsaid regarding the current state of the precious metals? Really, nothing. It just is what it is. Prices head lower as rates and the POSX head higher and, until something changes economically to force the hand of The Fed, we're just kind of stuck here.

The good news today...

Dreadfully Durable

Wednesday, September 27, 2023 - 10:41am

Today's durable goods data came in slightly better than expected, though nothing to get excited about. However, it was enough to extend the relentless rally in the POSX and force even more selling and shorting in the Comex PMs.

Wow, this is some nasty stuff. Just one week ago today,...

Temeritous Tuesday

Tuesday, September 26, 2023 - 10:38am

It's another weak day on Comex which is pretty much what we expected after reviewing the option open interest yesterday. But it's just a day and it will be over soon enough and then we can turn our focus to the news and events pending for later this week.

If you missed it yesterday,...

Rates Keep Soaring

Monday, September 25, 2023 - 11:10am

The yield on the 10-year note is soaring again today with the rate now exceeding 4.50% and pushing higher. This has led the POSX higher and so, of course, the Comex PMs are down as the new week begins.

So I guess we might as well start there. The selloff in bonds began when trading...

Ripley Can't Believe It

Friday, September 22, 2023 - 10:59am

In a stunning development, the Comex precious metals are actually poised to paint green weekly candles...again...for the second week in a row! Now, it's early and there's still plenty of time left in the day but, after the debacle of the FOMC, it just seems sort of surprising that the week is...

More Ugly By The Day

Thursday, September 21, 2023 - 11:22am

While it's no fun to wait out the economy and the Goons, the situation sure gets to get more ugly by the day...in all facets of society.

I don't even know where to start on a day like today. For fun, let's start here. Did you know that there are people who "identify" as dogs? Further,...

FOMC Wednesday

Wednesday, September 20, 2023 - 10:40am

The POSX is down and the Comex PMs are up today ahead of the September fedlines and presser. Is this a sign of things to come or is it just a trap set to wrong foot traders ahead of the action this afternoon and tomorrow?

Of course, that's difficult to answer. It always feels...

FOMC Tuesday

Tuesday, September 19, 2023 - 10:37am

The September FOMC begins today and, while no news is scheduled until tomorrow, there's still plenty to discuss as the markets prepare for the Fedlines and Jerry's presser.

Today has begun rather quietly, however. The precious metals rallied overnight on a weaker POSX but then, of...


Friday, September 15, 2023 - 10:11am

What? Green candles?? Inconceivable!!!

" You keep using that word. I'm not sure it means what you think it means ." - Inigo Montoya

But it does seem inconceivable that the Comex PMs would have green candles...particularly on a Friday...particularly when a Friday rally can turn...

As Thursdays Go

Thursday, September 14, 2023 - 10:25am

It's just another down day for the Comex metals as a perfect storm for HFT algo selling persists and worsens.

The Comex metals are being impacted by a double whammy today. First, the ECB did issue another rate hike but they seemed to strongly signal that it would be the last. So,...