Economy

Q4 GDP Crushes Bounce

Day Six of the latest siege.

Thursday, February 28, 2019 - 10:37am
By

Gold and silver were both bouncing back and headed higher earlier today. And then the Comex opened. And then the Q4 GDP came in stronger than expected. And now we're back in the tank.

Here's the story on the Q4 GDP which purports to show that 2018 was the best year for the US economy...

2010 + 9

A guide to 2019 and beyond.

Monday, January 14, 2019 - 9:22am
By
13

For each of the past several years, we've written January posts that helped to serve as a road map for the year ahead. Though crystal ball-gazing is an inexact science, on balance we've done a pretty good job with these forecasts. As 2019 dawns, we thought we should give it another try today...

Thursday (Friday) Conversation - Dave Collum

A look back at 2018 and a look ahead into 2019.

Friday, January 11, 2019 - 3:01pm
With

It's with great pleasure that we introduce a new guest to TFMR, Dr. Dave Collum of Cornell University. Though Dave is professor of organic chemistry by day, he's also a terrific analyst and commentator regarding the global financial system. His annual "Year In Review" column is always a must...

BLSBSLOLHAHAHA

We don't call it the BLSBS for nothing.

Friday, January 4, 2019 - 10:41am
By
11

From seemingly out of the blue and against all odds, the BLSBS today came in with the largest "job gains" since June of 2016...just in time to send the "stock market" surging and Comex gold crashing. As if we've never seen this movie before...

You know, when CDG tapped $1300 last...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, December 21

Friday, December 21, 2018 - 5:21pm
11

It was another brutal day for the stockroaches as the global markets continue to contract faster than the Fed contracts its balance sheet. And it looks like next week may hold more of the same.

So we begin today with these two charts. The first is a weekly S&P and the second is a...

Thursday Conversation - Grant Williams

A discussion of the US$ and the gold standard.

Thursday, December 20, 2018 - 4:19pm
With
11

With all sorts of uncertainty ahead in 2019, what a great time to check in with Grant Williams, sound money advocate and co-founder of Real Vision.

Grant and I recorded this on Wednesday, just after the release of the FOMC Fedlines. And what a great time to visit! Over the course of...

CGP's Big Day

What to expect at 2:00 EST today.

Wednesday, December 19, 2018 - 10:17am
By

Here comes Chief Goon Powell. The day revolves around him. Thus this brief post to help you kill the time.

Again, all the fun begins at 2:00 pm EST. As we discussed yesterday, I fully expect a 25 basis point fed funds rate hike followed by a set of fedlines that suddenly seem "dovish"...

Thursday Conversation - Brandon Smith

Words of wisdom and warning for 2019.

Thursday, December 13, 2018 - 4:12pm
With
11

I've been an admirer of Brandon Smith since about the time we stared TFMR in 2010. And now finally, in 2018, we get a chance to visit.

This is mainly a discussion of three things:

  1. How the world got into this position
  2. What is going on at present
  3. The
  4. ...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, December 4

What a humdinger of a day!

Tuesday, December 4, 2018 - 5:19pm

It was a wildly volatile day with huge moves in both the stock and bond markets. All the while, Comex gold held firm with a stronger yuan. With the US "stock market" closed tomorrow, more craziness is definitely in store for later this week.

After a lengthy general discussion, we begin...

Trade War Ceasefire

The yuan-gold "peg" works in our favor for once.

Monday, December 3, 2018 - 9:44am
By

News over the weekend pointed to a rally today in the precious metals and commodities...though it took a while for it to kick in.

Of course, the source of this rally is the "ceasefire" in the Trade War announced by Trump and Xi back on Saturday. This sent the yuan surging from the open...

More Trouble for Chief Goon Powell

Time is running out for CGP and his rate hike scheme.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018 - 9:56am
By

We wrote two weeks ago about CGP painting himself into a corner. That corner got even tighter today and it will soon close, leaving him with zero remaining options.

It's coming at CGP from multiple directions today. First, Trump in all his glory, pounded away in an interview posted...

Chief Goon Powell's Conundrum

CGP has painted himself into a corner.

Thursday, November 15, 2018 - 10:35am
By

What to do if you are an overpaid, ivory-tower Fed Head? You want to keep raising the fed funds rate in order to benefit your owners but, at the same time, your higher rates are driving your stock market lower. Again, what to do, what to do?

Below you can see El Problemo. When the...

Election Doldrums

It's not quite like the summer doldrums but today's action is similar.

Tuesday, November 6, 2018 - 9:59am
By

It's not quite like the summer doldrums but today's action is similar. We'll likely sit and wait with prices in a range, all the while subject to sudden spikes and selloffs due to random headlines about turnout and exit polls. So, why not a Hat Contest?!?

Ummm, let's see...What can we...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, November 5

Monday, November 5, 2018 - 4:55pm

It was a relatively quiet day and tomorrow may be, too. But the US midterm elections should send the "markets" either reeling or soaring by Wednesday.

But we begin today with a discussion of these two links and then the tweet below:

  • ...

Politcal Mania

Tuesday's US elections will have a major impact on gold.

Monday, November 5, 2018 - 11:00am
By

The week begins with a U-turn on the chart. Is that what we have to look forward to this week?

In case you missed it earlier, here's a 5-minute chart showing the action/reaction to the Iran sanction news and other headlines:...

Guest Post: The Fourth Turning & The War of The Worlds, by Jim Quinn

Please be sure to read this today.

Monday, November 5, 2018 - 10:58am
4

Please be sure to take some time to read this today. Ahead of Tuesday's US elections, our friend Jim Quinn accurately and eloquently summarizes where we are relative to "The Fourth Turning".

...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, November 2

A slightly positive week has us looking ahead to year end.

Friday, November 2, 2018 - 5:18pm

It was a relatively quiet day considering that it was a BLSBS Friday. However, with the 10-year note back above 3.20%, it will be interesting to see if volatility returns as soon as Monday.

It's your normal Friday podcast so, after a general discussion, we dive right into the charts....

Compost BLSBS

Comex gold prices rally following the latest garbage of the BLSBS.

Friday, November 2, 2018 - 10:44am
By

Well, all things considered, when Comex gold and silver can shrug off a "strong and robust" BLSBS, then maybe things are indeed beginning to turn.

If you missed the news from earlier, here's the official summary from ZH:...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, October 22

Monday, October 22, 2018 - 6:02pm
13

The Comex metals began the week on a down note but there were definitely some interesting developments that caught our eye today.

First of all, after rolling over late Friday, the "stock market" fell again today and the S&P finished the day below its 200-day MA again. It will be...

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