Silver - Are Long Term Cycles Real and Practical?

Note: "Argentus" was kind enough to write up this post and I want to give it the attention it deserves. Therefore, this post will be featured today. At the bottom, you see that I've added some additional charts as the first comment of the thread. TF


This is a short review of silver cycle forecasts of the past, I list various cycles to be checked out, and end with a look forward.

I have written about silver cycles in TFMR before and looked at their persistence over time, and how they might have changed since they were originally discovered.

By the way, its always good to check out if somebody has a track record or a record of mistakes, or they just arrived at the party fresh and innocent. Digging is good exercise for the body and brain alike. So if you wish to do some digging to see more, here are handy links:

Silver Market Cycles written 1 June 2014 can be read here:

A later article Where the long term silver cycles are now written 21 Sept 2014 is here:

My review when i looked back at them from now, eight years later, is that I'm ok with them but would write them differently now.

I did a search for silver market cycles and notice this subject seems to be less talked about now. Has interest waned? Did the impatient to make a gigantic score move to crypto leaving silver inhabited by more patient players? I'm not sure.

I sense that the people who populate the silver market, retail side, tend to be mixed in many ways but also tend to have a common idea that the conventional financial system is less trustworthy that it ought to be.

Given the events of the last few years it appears possibly that distrust of "official" and "authoritative" information sources, etcetera, would be about to collapse. My posts in TFMR have looked for example at the collapse of support for Disney (DIS) and proposed that my idea that this is a leading edge example, a case study if you like, of a bigger collapse in general everything "official" would be proved as time passes. The coming twelve months will see how that idea works out. Shocking for many, I suspect.

But silver investors are the few, not the many. Are silver investors "prepared" for what is in the pipeline (not natgas if you're in Germany!) coming our way? Maybe some are. And, has this happened before?

If it did, cycles might show how something similar worked out before now. Looking back to see forwards better ... is this a practical idea?

That's what this article/essay is about.

So to get stuck in if I search for cycles in silver, long term cycles in silver I get certain results. ITS REALLY STRANGE HOW MY OWN ARTICLES IN TFMR USING THESE EXACT TITLES DON'T COME UP IN THE SEARCH. But, you know, distrust of sources and all that.

++: Assuming you want TFMR to thrive? Start passing links to it around. There is friction being applied from ... somewhere ... by some authoritative leader types .... and you the reader have to overcome that scuzzy search filtering by doing some extra marketing for our host who provides this site for us.

So try a few searches for some of your own comments, use word for word for the search, and if they have failed to appear on the search engine start passing round those links. Do the passing links on bit regularly to overcome algorythm suppression of our speech. Encourage friends to join in and amplify us.

So what did I find in my search for silver cycles?

This is a summary :

Gertrude Shirk of Foundation for The Study of Cycles described 30 yr, 9 yr and 5 yr/6 1mth cycles

Tim Wood described 5 yr/61.3 mth and 10 yr/120.6 mth cycles in silver.

Argentus Maximus (myself) in the above linked articles not found by the internet searches described 1 yr, 2 yr, 4yr, 5 yr, 7-8 yr, 8 yr, 8.6 yr, 9, 15, 31 year cycles.

And, in the article I suggested that some of those had evolved or adjusted a little and they 5 was closer to a 6, the 9 was closer to a 10, the 15-16 was closer to a 20, and the 31 was still there ... as at Q3 2014 with the time I had to work it up.

I didn't mention I suspect there is also a 58 to 60 year bigger cycle. The very long term has less relevance to reader who get sucked into short term trades by the market's fluctuations. But those longer term cycles, if you can only get them right which isn't easy, those are the sources of the larger than usual shorter term price swings.

Below is the 31 year cycle, as at 2 years ago, so walk forward testing can be done by YOU:

Below 15-16 year cycle (as at 2 years ago for walk forward verification)

Below eight year cycle as at 2020 for a 2 year walk forwards test:

Here is the 5 year cycle (could be 5, 5 1/2, or even 6 years so allow for that, with a 2 years walk forward gap on the right hand side of the chart. The dates are shown by red vertical timelines or datelines rather than echoing the past alongside it:

And below is the two year analysis as at 2 years in 2020, six years after my TFMR Argentus Maximus Blog articles in 2014.

Six years on the chart to verify, 2 years since then to also verify or not as you wish:

If these snapshots from 24 months ago worked, even partially, I'll mention that their updated versions will be posted - along with the usual attempt at interpretation of them in the forum "Setup For The Big Trade" during the coming days and weeks.

It's just under ten years since Setup forum was started. Time flies, doesn't it?

Have a great day!

argentus maximus

a.k.a. Norman Greene

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