Cycles, Mindsets, Where Some Mindsets Come From, Reaction to Shock

79
Fri, Jul 15, 2016 - 3:08pm

Understanding of cycles demands a detached, non-emotional point from which "things" are observed. Often there must also be a moment of introspection, looking for gut reaction, a triggered response. You see that triggered response might just transfer your money, via bad investments, into the hands of another. So the introspection must be honest in self examination. After a while you start to feel your strings being tugged by ... something or someone somewhere.

You do not want to play their game by their rules on their turf.

No way - if you wish to retain your money and financial freedom.

So this week we have something happening. A cycle arrives, and nobody here knows precisely what that means, but you know it arrived because I let you know of this.

And about the same time, among the usual cluster of cycle synchronized events - a terrorist disaster happens in France.

So there is a choice. You can react like this:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=zwp4znSQ3WM

or decide to not react yet, and before reacting, learn a little more about this:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=hA736oK9FPg

If you are not presently of time to watch the second video, I suggest watching the top link, that's the reflexive reaction - the triggered response which takes just 5 minutes. You'll get the point by half way.

Then instead of the 2nd video, learn about THE SHOCK DOCTRINE, The Rise of Disaster Capitalism by Naomi Klein. Summary of the book HERE.

Here is the associated website : https://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine

Of course, when I tried to go to the above link I got a red warning screen about the safety of visiting this website. Always a good sign if you have a curious enquiring mind. But I went there anyway and my computer didn't explode or die, revealing the warning itself as very fishy, and then I got to read stuff like this:

Exposing the thinking, the money trail and the puppet strings behind the world-changing crises and wars of the last four decades, The Shock Doctrine is the gripping story of how America’s “free market” policies have come to dominate the world-- through the exploitation of disaster-shocked people and countries.

At the most chaotic juncture in Iraq’s civil war, a new law is unveiled that would allow Shell and BP to claim the country’s vast oil reserves…. Immediately following September 11, the Bush Administration quietly out-sources the running of the “War on Terror” to Halliburton and Blackwater…. After a tsunami wipes out the coasts of Southeast Asia, the pristine beaches are auctioned off to tourist resorts.... New Orleans’s residents, scattered from Hurricane Katrina, discover that their public housing, hospitals and schools will never be reopened…....

These events are examples of “the shock doctrine”: using the public’s disorientation following massive collective shocks – wars, terrorist attacks, or natural disasters -- to achieve control by imposing economic shock therapy......

The book traces its origins back fifty years, to the University of Chicago under Milton Friedman, which produced many of the leading neo-conservative and neo-liberal thinkers whose influence is still profound in Washington today. New, surprising connections are drawn between economic policy, “shock and awe” warfare and covert CIA-funded experiments in electroshock and sensory deprivation in the 1950s, research that helped write the torture manuals used today in Guantanamo Bay.......

Most interesting.

... (An aside point : That warning screen ... how ... why ... who was named in the webpage again? ... in the paragraphs I reproduced for you just above) ...

So how detached are you when you experience shock and disaster? Can you be led? No? "No!" Ok then: Do you react contrary to the direction of being lead and oppose-fight the first motivation? If either is true, you have just been recruited by someone, something. Now you are a puppet. A tool of one of two "sides" in their nasty game. You are "their asset" acting independently, but still doing "their" work. Your money, if you trade, is toast, you just don't know it yet.

Today I see news appearing like these items:

Nice attack forces London’s Mayor Sadiq Khan to review ‘safety measures’

French Unity Cracks as Opposition Slams Nice Security Response

Did you know ...

... when a prisoner goes into shock, they go into regression, and a window opens. They may form a bond and place trust in their interrogator .....

...... Milton Friedman mentioned the phrase "economic shock" in letters to Pinochet .....

So what if a whole society is put into shock? Will they do or accept things they will regret later? How many shocks are required if the society is resilient? How many shock and awe attacks will do the job? Will a spontaneous disaster, great fire, or other shock work as well? What is the purpose? Who will get what they want?

How can I avoid being played and trade the fresh bubble about to be created?

Wait ... what bubble? Well I mean the reaction taxation-spending bubble.

A despicable way to think? Really? Only if you just got emotional. If you are in the markets, there is no "right" side. It's go long or short or do nothing. You are evaluating, calculating, who will win, who will lose, and why, and what to do about that.

This is nothing new. Peace is a threat to certain ... investments ...

Be detached.

Let the fear go. While you are letting it go, identify where it come from. Who it came from.

Avoid falling for the "either with us or against us" tactic to eliminate opposition to the scheme. Cast aside the "you aren't courageous and brave" patriotic jingoistic recruitment tactic. Those are cheap tricks intended to subvert the ignorant and bully their minds away from a middle way, a balanced and direct other response to the shock stimulus from those provided for discussion.

Now you should see those who play you. Tugging at you subconscious emotions with a subtle "fear reaction string". You can see them for who and what they really are. Who was ... behind or piggybacking on ... the shocking news that reached out to you.

When I am trading, I get excited, but that feeling now rings an inner alarm. I had to learn that. When the inner alarm goes off I pull myself together, imagine I am a spider watching my web, and wait for the trade to come to me and catch itself. That a pretty unemotional attitude. It's necessary, if you want to make money trading. You need a totally independent attitude to trade.

Of course it would be better to not have the reaction. No rewarding bubble for the insiders. You need a resilient society for that. Evaluate the resilience of your society and be realistic, not emotive, in your trades. And try to show your friends how it works. Remember to be gentle with people. Reasonable and understated rather than pushy. As I try to be here. People need time to adjust their worldview.

And my deepest sympathy goes out to the victims and their families for this terrible atrocity in France.

Argentus Maximus

.

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmAndPrice. The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.

EDIT: 16 July 2016. the Youtube video link to Naomi Klein speaking was replaced with another link of the same speech. The replacement link is a single continuous video, whereas the original was the first one of the same speech cut into ten video clips

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Joseph Warren
Jul 17, 2016 - 4:32pm

Screw Klein . . .Here's a Real Rant

Stefan Molyneux -

What Pisses Me Off About The Bastille Day Terrorist Attack | Nice, France
James Crightonargentus maximus
Jul 17, 2016 - 12:35pm

Thanks AM

jc (still aim to be all out the market by end of August - and might trade a little on the side after that - following trends when they develop)

Jul 17, 2016 - 12:25pm

When it collapses ..... That

When it collapses ..... That it will collapse is not a given. Something must happen for that to occur - otherwise it would already be collapsed, right? What if that thing doesn't happen?

Not saying it won't collapse, just pointing out an assumption which implies there is a condition awaiting action.

So how about this: can the market maintain it's current valuation? I do believe there is a way.

Now, will it find that way or not? Depends ..... upon who owns it, in my opinion. You see, I don''t think it will be let collapse unless the right people can be persuaded to own it first.

Until that arrives, or if it doesn't arrive, the market can be made to fluctuate within wide ranging swings during which the insiders front run the masses both up and down. In this way the same value can be abstracted and "given" to some people as if they had sold and the market collapsed.

Which is already going on for quite a while.

The question would then appear to be "If there is a trading range, and the market may collapse, where is the top of the range at which I should be positioned for a downswing which might turn out to be a very big downswing? Or it might not ...extend, but I would still be short and right?"

My answer, which is partial, and surmise, guesswork, and analysis of the past tendencies of the hand on the other side of the gaming table is that the existence of money in retirement funds is the reason for continuance of the game and until it's gone the market won't rise appreciably, and hold that level. Until then all rises, like the current on/the one just seen will be followed by counterswings of varying size. If there is a visible upwards tilt to the "trading range" whatever shape it takes, then that upwards underlying trend is the loss of the value of the money in which the market is priced - long term.

A short answer might be that the range trading could continue for another decade or two. But people might not see a neat rectangular pattern on their charts if they looked for one - it would be more likely irregular, erratic. If the public go in hard at any time it may then crash in short order. If they don't the central banks will print and hold it up for the other ... owners ... of it. In which case it goes net sideways and loses 60% value while doing so over a decade - in purchasing power terms. And they get their money frontrunning the swings through range both ways.

Move - countermove - reaction rather than plan. Their data dependent policy. They're not about to give up yet. Who is long or short matters much. A crash, if it happens could be a retest down, then a crash up into a spike and then a swift counter cash down. That is a scenario I consider quite likely actually.

James Crightonargentus maximus
Jul 17, 2016 - 10:59am

@Argentus

Thanks for the explanation AM - and I am grateful for your insights - and, from a trading point of view, I understand them and do try and follow that philosophy.

I too am against decadence - though, hopefully, am not too much of a prude.

My opposition to banksters and dishonest politicians is perhaps a little a little less practical than your approach. I am forced into "action" by my conscience - I just cannot help it. This however does not interfere with my - realistic - trading methods.

By the way (I hope you don't mind my asking): what do you think will happen to the PM stocks when the market collapses?

thanks

jc

Jul 17, 2016 - 8:41am

@ James Crighton

>>> >... Hmmmmm, Argentus, I hope I have misunderstood you but this statement implies to me that your philosophy is one of "go with the flow" - and take advantage of whatever situation exists. How does this stand gel with Einstein's observation that the cause of the next World War will not be the evil ones but those that stand by and say and do nothing to oppose them (or words to that effect)? Personally, I try to fight evil when I see it - in whatever way that I realistically can. I know that this may sometimes be futile - but my conscience tells me that it is the more moral alternative - even if it makes one unpopular. .... jc <<<

My trading - investment philosophy is exactly as you understand.

I am emphasizing the importance that personal opposition to "the flow" or "progress" must never, ever be allowed to diminish the absolute requirement that trades always be "with the flow".

Investment is not a mission, it's a profession. I expect many precious metal stackers have been learning this during the past five years at great cost. I also am proposing that just because PM prices have recently been rising, this lesson in trade direction objectivity must not be forgotten. But unfortunately I see many signs of it being forgotten.

Personally I oppose decadence (which is a wide definition for me). Being anti political and anti religious, I do it actively in less frequently used ways. I'm here to educate those who got financially screwed by bad trading discipline during the PM bear and help where I can to let people like me achieve greater skills to compete in markets against the decadent that I dislike and oppose. I don't like political insiders and financial racketeers taking the money off of people like me that I identify with. That's the prime reason I am here by the way. To make a contribution to stopping that.

So you could say I'm doing something for the side of honesty. If you wish to put it that way. Going with the flow in investment IS the way to do that - for me.

James CrightonJoseph Warren
Jul 17, 2016 - 5:19am

@JW - re: 1:01am post

JW wrote: "I've talked to men who are less frightened to face hostile gunfire (and that is part of their job description) - than to face their long time conditioning & beliefs. There are men more afraid of losing a paycheck & their pension, and the respect of their peers - than losing their country. (When it comes down to it, they have a rather vague and even naive/romantic notion of what 'their country' is.) "

Joe - I am not one of these men - and have paid the social price. However, I derive great solace from the fact that I know I am right. Added comfort comes from the fact that, of late, there is a new-found respect from my wife as even she sees what is unfolding in both the USA and in the World.

jc (friendless on the banks - but not for lack of trying to help ......................... )

James CrightonJoseph Warren
Jul 17, 2016 - 5:14am

@JW - re: "the internet" etc - 9:29 post

Joe - Big Bruv (the US govt.) never had a choice - Tim Berners-Lee ensured that when he made what was the greatest and most generous gift (yes, he GAVE it away) ever to mankind - the World Wide Web ...........................

Tim Berners-Lee - the man who changed the World ..............

jc (view from the banks getting very interesting................

James Crightonargentus maximus
Jul 17, 2016 - 5:07am

@ Argentus - "Embrace the change"

AM: "Embrace the change by first seeing it for what it is"

Hmmmmm, Argentus, I hope I have misunderstood you but this statement implies to me that your philosophy is one of "go with the flow" - and take advantage of whatever situation exists. How does this stand gel with Einstein's observation that the cause of the next World War will not be the evil ones but those that stand by and say and do nothing to oppose them (or words to that effect)? Personally, I try to fight evil when I see it - in whatever way that I realistically can. I know that this may sometimes be futile - but my conscience tells me that it is the more moral alternative - even if it makes one upopular.

jc

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Joseph Warren
Jul 17, 2016 - 1:12am

Prison for Your Mind

I've talked to men who are less frightened to face hostile gunfire (and that is part of their job description) - than to face their long time conditioning & beliefs. There are men more afraid of losing a paycheck & their pension, and the respect of their peers - than losing their country. (When it comes down to it, they have a rather vague and even naive/romantic notion of what 'their country' is.) But events like the recent farce of an investigation & 'clearing' of Hillary Rodham take a chisel to their beliefs. Puts a few cracks in it. In the collapsing Soviet Union the point was reached when no Russian believed anything those in the government said. The average Soviet citizen was far more sophisticated in his world outlook than the average American is today. But, memes can spread extremely fast. And when they do, empires can fall very quickly.

A Prison For Your Mind - The Matrix

P.S. - you can view the battery as an allegory for peoples' life energy & productivity stolen from them.

Kuchek
Jul 16, 2016 - 10:44pm

AM

The corruption of Free Market Capitalism is what has lead to the Facism of today. Oh us imperfect humans. What a silly Matrix we have contrived. I loved your visual of the road side spinning. I do indeed see the repetitive cycle. I guess I am just foolish enough to think that we can manifest our way out of it. What may lay ahead and the duration of it could be pretty grim. One question that came to mind. Does there always have to be a form of Government for a monetary policy to exist? Be the change you want to see. I am a hippy dreamer who sees free energy, healthier lifestyles and a higher consciousness in the not too distant future. Erdogan is playing both sides, but for how long? Love the banter chaps...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=900keoFkqOk

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