The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Monday, January 24

Monday, January 24, 2022 - 5:22pm

If today was any indicator of the week that is to come, then we definitely chose the right week to have another Hat Contest. The stonk market fell over 1,100 Dow points before rallying all the way back into the green.

The stonk rally only commenced after rate hike expectations fell. So...

A Wildly Unpredictable Week Ahead

Sunday, January 23, 2022 - 11:14pm

You've heard me state the the year 2022 is going to be wildly unpredictable and volatile. Well, the week ahead promises to be a microcosm of that premise. So, you know what that means? It's time for another Hat Contest!

If you listened to Friday's podcast then you know that I'm going...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 21

Friday, January 21, 2022 - 4:47pm

Well, we knew this day would be interesting and volatile, particularly as it pertained to the stonk market...and the day did not disappoint. So now we head into the January FOMC week with stonks teetering into correction territory so it looks like next week will be crazy, too.

So what...

Like A Bat Out Of Hell

Friday, January 21, 2022 - 10:49am

So as your Friday begins I see that bonds are up, the POSX is down but the Comex metals are down, too. But don't be sad, because two out of three ain't bad.

Of course, you had to know that we'd begin the day with a Meat Loaf reference. As you may know, the big man passed away overnight...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, January 20

Thursday, January 20, 2022 - 5:45pm

It was a very interesting day. I had a pretty good idea and plan for this podcast and then the final hour of trading on the NYSE brought a sharp selloff. A miserable earnings report from Netflix then accelerated the losses and now, all of a sudden, we have a very interesting Friday ahead....

Floating Higher

Thursday, January 20, 2022 - 10:56am

Commodities are floating higher again today and extending the gains that have already been posted this week. While this is nice, unexpected and very fun, we must remain vigilant for another price slam of the sort we experienced back in November.

It's a Happy Thursday as prices in...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, January 19

Wednesday, January 19, 2022 - 5:28pm

It was a second, consecutive day of strong gains across the commodity sector following the surprise Chinese announcement of a rate cut early Monday. So what comes next? Are we now due for a period of consolidation or are more gains possible? Come on in and have a listen.

For today, a...

Commodity Surge - Day Two

Wednesday, January 19, 2022 - 10:40am

Hmmm. Well what do we have here? We noted yesterday that, despite some serious strength in the POSX, commodities generally moved higher. And now here we are again today with the full board in the green. What an interesting development.

I hope that you had a chance to listen to last...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, January 18

Tuesday, January 18, 2022 - 5:34pm

What a wild way to start the week! The bond market sold off sharply and stonks tanked. The POSX soared and yet, commodities rallied with crude oil and Comex silver both up 2.6%. What the heck is going on here?

While it's hard to say for certain, what appears to be going on is a trend...


Tuesday, January 18, 2022 - 10:06am

It always feel odd to start the week on Tuesday and here we are again after the US market holiday yesterday. It also feels odd to see prices move higher in a short squeeze rather than the usual smash lower. But again, here we are.

So happy Tuesday everyone and I hope you enjoyed the...

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/24

1/24 9:45 ET Markit Flash PMIs for January
1/25 9:00 ET Case-Swiller home prices
1/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/26 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
1/26 2:30 ET CGP presser
1/27 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
1/28 8:30 ET Core PCE
1/28 10:00 ET UMich 5-yr Inflation Expectations


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