The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Hanging Tough

Though it appears that we're still in the two-steps-back mode.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019 - 12:06pm

Today's CPI was mild and bland and this has helped to spur the Comex metals slightly higher. Remember, the official "dual mandate" of the Fed includes 2% price inflation so anything below that level leads their fuzzy-headed academics to conclude that monetary conditions are too tight.


TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, February 12

Tuesday, February 12, 2019 - 7:20pm

The week heats up tomorrow with the CPI due in the morning and the PPI due on Thursday. In between, we'll watch the POSX closely to see if we can begin to get the Comex metals rising again.

For today, just this one link from your conspiracy theory-loving Fed:...

Tackling Tuesday

Another day in the barrel.

Tuesday, February 12, 2019 - 9:22am

(For newsletter subscribers, this is a free public post.)

We've got a lot to do today so it all begins with an early start. And that's just fine because there's a lot going on.

Let's dive right in as the Comex just opened and already the digital versions of the metals are...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, February 11

Monday, February 11, 2019 - 4:51pm

It was another difficult day as the POSX continued its relentless advance from the post-FOMC lows late last month. Could this computer-generated rally be about to run its course and, if so, what would that mean for Comex digital gold and silver.

To begin today, we ask you to review...

Slow Death By Pig

The relentless rise since the FOMC is taking its toll.

Monday, February 11, 2019 - 9:45am

I had hoped that a return of Chinese markets would help to reverse the non-stop uptrend that The Pig (POSX) has sustained ever since the FOMC two weeks ago. Nope. At least not today.

We discussed this relentless bid for The Pig last week and it's actually quite curious. In a small way...

Special Podcast: Lutz, Rubino and TF

This public podcast is very helpful and informative. You should be sure to listen.

Saturday, February 9, 2019 - 4:38pm

Last Thursday, Kerry Lutz invited John Rubino and I to discuss the important trends in the markets and the economy for 2019. It went quite well so I thought it deserved its own thread.

This thing clocks in at about 42 minutes but it's definitely worth your time. I'd never met John...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, February 8

Friday, February 8, 2019 - 5:39pm

We all breathe a sigh of relief to put this week behind us and now we can focus upon the week ahead and where prices are headed from here.

First, though, you've got to see this:...

Friday Finish

Glad to get this week behind us.

Friday, February 8, 2019 - 10:53am

We look to end the week on an interesting note as the Comex metals bounce back while the bond market continues to rally and the "stock market" continues to back off. What will next week bring and how will a return of China affect things?

For today, things are mostly quiet as there have...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, February 7

Thursday, February 7, 2019 - 4:59pm

It was a busy day and there's a lot to discuss so come on in and let's get started.

I have no extra links today so just a lengthy general discussion followed by a review of these charts. First, note that the 30-year Long Bond is back to just 3.00%. No inflation ahead? More QE coming?...

The Pullback Continueth

Even when you know it's coming, it's always frustrating to watch play out.

Thursday, February 7, 2019 - 10:56am

A quick scan of the homepage reveals multiple references late last week to an impending pullback. And here we are. However, the Chinese New Year holiday ends soon and multiple technical signals are providing support in the short-term so perhaps this current decline has nearly run its course....

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, February 6

Wednesday, February 6, 2019 - 7:00pm

In what can only be considered comical and ridiculous, both Comex digital metals are now DOWN versus their price when Chief Goon Powell paused all rate hikes last Wednesday.

If anything, this only serves to prove once again the time-tested TFMR adage: "If you're going to...

Distaste of The Union

CGP's speech tonight will be far more important.

Wednesday, February 6, 2019 - 9:02am

Now that Trump's meaningless SOTU address is behind us, we can begin to focus upon much more important speeches that are coming in the hours ahead.

First, this evening brings Chief Goon Powell with a speech in Virginia at 7:00 pm EST. Tomorrow morning brings his right hand man, Goon...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, February 5

Tuesday, February 5, 2019 - 5:21pm

It was another quiet day and that's just fine with your host as tomorrow may be a different story where we'll have to deal with the aftermath of Trump's SOTU and the anticipation of a speech from Chief Goon Powell.

For today though, please just be sure that you've see this link:...

Checking In Again With Mr. Palladium

Could this be a magic metal?

Tuesday, February 5, 2019 - 10:51am

It has been three weeks since we focused upon palladium...and it has been an eventful three weeks for our new friend. He's been punched lower but has crawled up off the mat each time. And now, he appears ready to make another batch of new alltime highs!

If you've been following along,...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, February 4

Monday, February 4, 2019 - 5:45pm

It was kind of a dull day and it my be a blah week, too, as the Chinese holiday has helped to decrease volume and interest.

Even the NYSE saw its trading volume shrink nearly 50% below its average today. So, when you see the metals moving it fits and starts, you should know that this...

Happy New Year

Another busy week begins.

Monday, February 4, 2019 - 9:43am

Chinese New Year is this week and, as with Golden Week in October, you never know precisely how the Comex metals will respond to the Chinese markets being on holiday.

Already last evening, the USDCNH rose sharply...meaning a weakening versus the dollar. Whether this is some follow-...

Super Bowl Weekend Thread

Saturday, February 2, 2019 - 11:50am

Short on time this morning and there's no sense in discussing the CoT so just a few quick charts to start your weekend.

First of all, check the beauty of the weekly chart for CDG. We're probably due for some temporary weakness and maybe the week-long Chinese holiday will do it. We'll...

With A Straight Face

How the BLS manages to create their monthly reports without laughing is beyond me.

Friday, February 1, 2019 - 10:51am

Today's BLSBS...and the 35% reduction reported for January...leaves us laughing. And it appears that many others are starting to catch on to the BLS' monthly shenanigans.

Recall that the January number of jobs was reported to be 314,000 and this "robust" number was used as cover to...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, January 31

This is a free public podcast. Given the circumstances, you should take time to listen.

Thursday, January 31, 2019 - 5:25pm

It was a decent day as a follow-up to the fireworks of yesterday. And now we await the BLSBS tomorrow, aware of the fact that we've had a pretty nice 5-day run and we may be due for a brief pullback.

But for today, we simply assess where we've been, where we are and where we're heading...

This Is Only Step One

This is a free public post. Given the circumstances, you should take time to read it.

Thursday, January 31, 2019 - 11:54am

If you've been following along since late last year, then you know there is nothing about the current action, economic climate or Fed policy that is unexpected. Therefore, it's very important to note that this is still just the initial rally of 2019 . There will always be...

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Sprott Money
Key Economic Events Week of 2/11

2/12 12:45 ET GCP speaks
2/13 8:30 ET CPI and three Goon speeches
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales (December)
2/14 8:30 ET PPI
2/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
2/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 2/4

2/5 8:30 ET Trade Balance
2/5 9:45 ET Service PMIs
2/5 9:00 pm ET Trump SOTU
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
2/6 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
2/7 9:30 ET Goon Clarida speech
2/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/28

1/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
1/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
1/31 8:30 ET Personal Inc, Cons. Spending and Core Inflation
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
2/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending

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