Thursday Conversation - Steve St. Angelo

A discussion of energy, production costs and precious metal prices.

Thursday, December 6, 2018 - 4:28pm

Longtime friend of TFMR, Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report, joins us today for an insightful and informative Thursday Conversation.

As is the usual format, I primarily asked Steve to address three specific concerns:

The crude oil market and how this current price plunge may...

Global Mayhem

Our stacks of precious metal look shinier by the day.

Thursday, December 6, 2018 - 10:53am

There's so much going on today that I'm not sure where to start. Stocks plunging. Bonds rallying. Brexit talks. Economic data. Trade war. The list seems endless so where do we begin?

I guess we'll start with the "stock market". It has been under pressure since full trading reopened...

A Vital Batchelor-Cohen Update

Please be sure to take the time to listen to this podcast.

Wednesday, December 5, 2018 - 11:44am

It turns out that Professor Cohen was actually in Moscow when the events in the Kerch Strait transpired ten days ago. He's back in the US now and provides some essential background information on this latest crisis within the New Cold War.

In lieu of a regular TFMR podcast today,...

Wednesday Wake

Market closures make for a dull day.

Wednesday, December 5, 2018 - 11:07am

With the public funeral for president George HW Bush today, most of the major US markets are closed. This means no stock market and no bond market. However, Comex is trading so let's take a look and see where we are.

For Comex gold, it has been a rangebound day with an overnight low of...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, December 4

What a humdinger of a day!

Tuesday, December 4, 2018 - 5:19pm

It was a wildly volatile day with huge moves in both the stock and bond markets. All the while, Comex gold held firm with a stronger yuan. With the US "stock market" closed tomorrow, more craziness is definitely in store for later this week.

After a lengthy general discussion, we begin...

Inversion Immersion

After years of warning, yield curve inversion is finally here.

Tuesday, December 4, 2018 - 10:21am

We've been writing and warning about an inverted yield curve for years now. It took a little longer than expected to get here but the moment has come, nonetheless.

If you've been around here for a while, you may remember this post from 2015. My primary mistake in this podcast was in...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, December 3

Monday, December 3, 2018 - 5:03pm

A cooling of The Trade War sparked a decent rally today. However, there are still multiple milestones we need to reach before we can fully conclude that the ship has turned.

We begin today by asking you to review these two links:...

Trade War Ceasefire

The yuan-gold "peg" works in our favor for once.

Monday, December 3, 2018 - 9:44am

News over the weekend pointed to a rally today in the precious metals and commodities...though it took a while for it to kick in.

Of course, the source of this rally is the "ceasefire" in the Trade War announced by Trump and Xi back on Saturday. This sent the yuan surging from the open...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, November 30

Friday, November 30, 2018 - 5:46pm

The week ends and now we look ahead to Monday where all eyes will be on the reaction to the G-20 and a 10-year note yielding less than 3.00%.

After a lengthy general discussion, we begin today with another mention of palladium and this concocted bullshit that the Comex wants to shove...

End Of Month Beatdown

All commodities are being smashed again today.

Friday, November 30, 2018 - 10:54am

The entire commodity sector is getting smashed again today as the POSX once again bounces from its primary, short-term trendline.

I'm not even sure of where to start this morning but let's begin with WTI crude. It just traded under $50 for the first time since August of 2017 and it's...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, November 29

Thursday, November 29, 2018 - 5:33pm

As we move into month end, let's take stock of where we stand at present and then look ahead.

We begin with a general discussion of CGP/Fed, the yield plane, Comex gold open interest and the pending CoT report. We also ask you to note that there will likely be over 10,000 Dec18 gold "...

2019 Comes Into Focus

CGP's capitulation sets the stage.

Thursday, November 29, 2018 - 11:08am

Let's start by thanking everyone again for your patience and understanding with my schedule yesterday. MamaFerg is now safely moved to her new home and all is well, except for my aching back and shoulders. It was a thoroughly busy day and I didn't return to Turdfork until about 10:00 pm...which...

More Trouble for Chief Goon Powell

Time is running out for CGP and his rate hike scheme.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018 - 9:56am

We wrote two weeks ago about CGP painting himself into a corner. That corner got even tighter today and it will soon close, leaving him with zero remaining options.

It's coming at CGP from multiple directions today. First, Trump in all his glory, pounded away in an interview posted...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, November 27

Tuesday, November 27, 2018 - 6:59pm

It was a day of plain old option expiry shenanigans combined with yuan weakness. Put it together and you get CDG down $10. With the Dec18s going off the board on Thursday and the G-20 meeting pending for this weekend, it's likely that we'll see more of the same as the week rolls along....

Random Tuesday Observations

A list of items you should be sure to see today.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018 - 10:14am

It's Dec18 option expiration day and, so far, it's pretty quiet. Maybe that's because, as we first noticed a week ago, there's not the usual open interest or clear "sweet spots". Whatever it is, this has sure begun as a listless day, despite the circumstances.

There are, however, a...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, November 26

Monday, November 26, 2018 - 5:14pm

The Comex metals finished mostly unchanged in the day as global markets shrugged off the latest developments regarding Ukraine, Brexit and China. Tomorrow brings option expiration for the Dec18 contracts so expect some volatility overnight and into Tuesday.

For this podcast, let's...

Expiration Week

The Dec18 options and contracts head off the board.

Monday, November 26, 2018 - 10:08am

First of all, welcome back. I hope that everyone enjoyed at least some measure of relaxation through what was essentially a four-day, US market holiday. Yes, there was some trading on Friday but it's back to full desks today with a charge into year end.

For us, the most important...

Red Friday

It's a sea of red on this Black Friday.

Friday, November 23, 2018 - 9:14am

It's a sea of red on this Black Friday. The Comex metals are getting whipsawed ahead of next week's Dec18 option expiration and it's primarily being driven by another crash in crude.

So let's start with crude because it's simply amazing. I've yet to find a comprehensive analysis of WHY...

Your Holiday Weekend Jackass

Jim Willie gets us ready for year end and 2019.

Thursday, November 22, 2018 - 9:46am

We'll speak with Jim again in a few weeks for our annual year-in-review and look ahead. For today, however, I thought we should mainly focus upon the three main subjects that have Jim's attention into the end of 2018.

And those three, primary topics are:

The ongoing issues at...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, November 21

One more podcast before the Thursday holiday.

Wednesday, November 21, 2018 - 5:41pm

The "stock market" failed to maintain a bounce today while both Comex metals staged decent rallies. The US markets will now be closed on Thursday and then we'll finish the week with a low-volume, holiday-shortened session on Friday.

For today, we begin with a general discussion and a...

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12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
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Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
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