The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, September 22

Tuesday, September 22, 2020 - 5:00pm

It was another challenging day for the Comex digital metals. However, there were some late day reasons for hope and, with more Fed Goon appearances slated for tomorrow, maybe we can catch a sustained enough bid to recapture some of yesterday's losses.

For today, we discuss the day's...

Moving Along

In the end, it's just another Tuesday.

Tuesday, September 22, 2020 - 10:58am

With Fed Goons everywhere today, we wait to see if follow-on selling envelopes the Comex digital metals. As it stands now, Comex gold is back over $1900 and maintaining a base there so our hope is that a solid move back above $1920 is pending for later this week.

But "later this week"...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, September 21

Monday, September 21, 2020 - 4:42pm

It was a very frustrating day to watch as the same algos that have recently linked Comex gold to the S&P went into overdrive and smashed prices down through some important support levels. But the week is far from over and, as we've warned, there's record amount of Fed Goon appearances on...

SPECIAL PODCAST: Marc Levy of Norsemont Mining

Monday, September 21, 2020 - 2:30pm

Earlier today, I had the opportunity to make an acquaintance of Marc Levy, the CEO of Norsemont Mining. Marc has had a very successful career developing companies and greatly increasing shareholder value so it certainly caught me eye when he recently turned his attention back to the mining...

The Red Sea


Monday, September 21, 2020 - 11:01am

It's never fun to start the week with a sea of red on your screen...yet here we are. And while it's always nice to console yourself with the notion that it's a long way to Friday, this is looking pretty ugly today.

And where did this come from? After a lousy "not dovish enough"...

Beer with TF - September 2020


It's time for our monthly Happy Hour & Cocktail Party. If you've not joined us before, you should give it a try. It's very easy and always a lot of fun.

As usual, we'll begin with the weekly summary. We'll take a look at the charts and the latest CoT reports. But once that's done,...

A Little Bit Of Green

A better week than it may seem.

Friday, September 18, 2020 - 11:35am

Anytime you can finish the week with a green candle, you're making progress toward your ultimate goal. And though it may not feel like it, we're currently working on green candles for both digital metals and the major mining ETFs. I'll take it!

And this was an FOMC week, too! So, all...

Thursday Conversation - Andrew Maguire

Thursday, September 17, 2020 - 4:02pm

It has been a couple of months since we've spoken with Andy and there have been all sorts of interesting developments over the intervening weeks. So please carve out some time to give this podcast a listen as Andy had some very interesting things to share when we spoke earlier today.


"Not Dovish Enough"

Thursday, September 17, 2020 - 9:59am

If $120B/month in QE and a promise of ZIRP through 2023 is now considered "not dovish enough", then our old pal CGP has a very significant problem on his hands.

And I'm not kidding. You could use the metaphor of a heroin addict...always needing a stronger and stronger hit until finally...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday , September 16

Wednesday, September 16, 2020 - 5:47pm

Chief Goon Powell has now assured the world that his Fed will be looking to maintain ZIRP all the way through 2023. That's 3.5 years from now! And yet, somehow, Comex metal prices fell as the active POSX algos remain in control...for now.

It's hard to underestimate how bullish this is...

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July


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