The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Comex Gold Sleeps With The Fishes

Thursday, February 25, 2021 - 10:56am

Another day of surging interest rates is another day of selling pressure on Comex gold. It's as if the bond market is a pair of cement shoes holding price to the floor of the sea. It won't be this way forever and any hint of Yield Curve Control from The Fed will finally bring to an end this...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, February 24

Wednesday, February 24, 2021 - 5:41pm

Ole Turd has been doing this long enough now that, every once in a while, he gets a spidey-sense feeling of deja vu or something close to it. Sort of an agitation but not in a negative sense.

And that ends up being the focus of this podcast today. But there's still a lot to cover and,...

More Of The Same

Wednesday, February 24, 2021 - 11:00am

Bonds are down (rates up) and the POSX is up. This is almost always a toxic brew for Comex gold and it is again today. However, also in the more of the same category, the commodity board is mostly green as that train is now out of the station and headed down the tracks.

The most...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, February 23

Tuesday, February 23, 2021 - 5:30pm

The only good thing about today is that we were able to put the Mar21 option expiration behind us. Now the focus turns to tomorrow and appearances by both CGP and Goon Chlamydia, all while open interest in March silver continues to roll into May.

We begin today with another focus on...

Option Expiry and CGP

Tuesday, February 23, 2021 - 11:12am

I've been out all morning and dealing with my annual physical exam. So it's a bit of a late start but we'll try to cobble together this post as quickly as possible.

Of course the main item today is the option expiration for the Mar21 silver. If you've been around TFMR for any length of...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, February 22

Monday, February 22, 2021 - 5:15pm

The week began with a bang as the entire commodity complex continues to soar on expectations of significant inflation in the months ahead. But don't forget that tomorrow is Mar21 Comex silver option expiration day.

For today, we mainly focus upon that building inflation story and the...

Expiration Week Begins

Monday, February 22, 2021 - 10:47am

We've finally arrived at Mar21 Comex silver option and contract expiration week. What will the week bring and where will price be by Friday's close? Those are very good questions and they are worthy of discussion on this fine Monday morning.

There was great interest in silver again...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, February 19

Friday, February 19, 2021 - 5:57pm

The week drew to a close with a failed Cartel raid allowing us to finish with an up day. However, with March expirations pending...and the March FOMC still three weeks away...we will likely feel more bumps in the road in the days ahead.

Just a lengthy general discussion today as we...

The Weeknd

Friday, February 19, 2021 - 10:48am

So I watched the Super Bowl. At halftime, I couldn't figure out why the dancers were wearing their jocks on their faces and if the dude performing went by the name "The Weekend" or "The Weakened". I'm reminded of this today because, after a week like this, I'm certainly ready for the weekend...

Thursday Conversation - Josh Phair, CEO of Scottsdale Mint

"There is no silver grain in existence in the U.S. at this moment".

Thursday, February 18, 2021 - 2:00pm

With the ongoing #SilverSqueeze movement exhausting all available supply of physical silver, I figured that it was time to check in with Josh Phair of Scottsdale Mint. As a major producer of blanks, rounds and bars, who better to explain the situation on the ground than Josh? So please take...

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Key Economic Events Week of 3/1

3/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 1:00 ET Goon Brainard
3/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
3/3 12:00 ET Goon Bostic
3/3 2:00 ET Goon Evans
3/4 8:30 ET Unit Labor Costs
3/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/4 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell
3/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 2/22

2/22 10:00 ET LEIII
2/23 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/23 10:00 ET CGP at US Senate
2/24 10:00 ET CGP at US House
2/24 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
2/25 8:30 ET Jobless claims
2/25 8:30 ET Durable goods
2/25 10:30 ET Goon Bullard
2/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
2/26 8:30 ET Core inflation
2/26 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/26 10:00 ET UMich sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/15

2/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/17 8:30 ET PPI
2/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
2/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
2/17 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/18 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/18 8:30 ET Import price index
2/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/19 9:45 ET Markit Feb flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/8

2/8 12:00 ET Goon Mester speech
2/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
2/10 8:30 ET CPI
2/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
2/10 2:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
2/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/1

2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
2/3 8:15 ET ADP employment report
2/3 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
2/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
2/4 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/4 10:00 ET Factory orders
2/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 1/25

1/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/26 1:30 ET Comex option expiration
1/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/27 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
1/27 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
1/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
1/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
1/20 12:00 ET POTUS Inauguration
1/21 ECB meeting and rate decision
1/21 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
1/22 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 1/11

1/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
1/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
1/13 8:30 ET CPI
1/13 1:00 ET Goon Brainard speech
1/13 2:00 ET Beige Book
1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/4

1/4 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
1/4 10:00 ET Construction Spending
1/5 Georgia U.S. Senate election
1/5 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
1/6 US election certification
1/6 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
1/6 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
1/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/8 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
12/22 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/22 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
12/23 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/23 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
12/23 8:30 ET Core Inflation


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