The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Banks In Charge

Mr. Potter would be proud.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019 - 10:54am

The Banks are continuing their fight against price and momentum as yesterday saw another massive increase in total contract issuance. And now today, any sort of gold-positive news is being aggressively sold.

But it is what it is and it's not as if it has never been this way. What's...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, December 3

Tuesday, December 3, 2019 - 6:08pm

It was a busy day and it saw both Comex metals rally substantially. While this is all well and good, we know that most of the gains can be taken back on a Trump tweet or Kudlow mumble. So let's assess where we are and then get ready for a volatile remainder of the week.

For today, just...

On With The Jackass

From Jackass lips to your ears.

Tuesday, December 3, 2019 - 3:20pm

As you may have noticed, we did not have our annual Thanksgiving visit from The Golden Jackass. One of the reasons why is this recording today.

Jim has joined his own podcast network and I encourage you to check it out. And it was for this network that Jim and I recorded this...

Trade War Giveth

And it's leading to a breakout in gold that might actually hold this time.

Tuesday, December 3, 2019 - 9:58am

We've certainly had to deal with our share of "trade war taketh away" lately. So, when Trump suddenly began to squawk overnight about the likelihood of no deal with China, we got ourselves a bit of a rally.

So now the only question far can we rally before Kudlow or some such...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, December 2

Monday, December 2, 2019 - 5:48pm

After an early selloff, some truly lousy US economic data allowed the bond market to rally and drag the Comex PMs along for the ride.

For today, just a discussion of the day that was and then we ask you to review these two links:

  • ...

Down Early, Up Late?

What's that old adage again?

Monday, December 2, 2019 - 9:52am

Could this be another one of those weeks where prices fall early in the week, only to completely reverse by late in the week and finish with a green candle? Let's hope so because we've certainly got the down early part going today.

And why are we down today? About all I can find is the...

Small Business Saturday and Cyber Monday

A holiday shopping special for TFMR members.

Saturday, November 30, 2019 - 12:23pm

Due to the extraordinary generosity of one of your fellow TFMR members, we have a holiday shopping special offer to share with you. Please be sure to have a listen to this brief podcast.

As discussed in this podcast...Yes, this is a great way to grow the membership base here at TFMR....

TFMR Podcast - Saturday, November 30

Saturday, November 30, 2019 - 11:53am

It was a long, strange trip but the month of November (and all of its expirations) is finally behind us. So now we begin December with the expectation that even a small rally in price will fulfill our goals for 2019 and set the table for a tremendous 2020.

There's a lot to cover this...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, November 27

Wednesday, November 27, 2019 - 4:55pm

It's time for the U.S. holiday of Wine-Drinking...err, I mean, Thanksgiving! But first this podcast with a few charts to watch through the remainder of the week.

Just this one link today. Since the motto of this site has always been "The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us...

Pre-Holiday, Pre-Expiry

Wednesday, November 27, 2019 - 10:47am

We've finally reached the point where the Dec19 contracts go off the board and the process of liquidating and rolling will come to an end. So let's get through today, enjoy a US holiday tomorrow, deal with the annual BS of "Black Friday" and then get back to business on Monday.


Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit


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