TF Metals Report

The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Friday, December 4

Friday, December 4, 2020 - 5:24pm

BLSBS Friday

Friday, December 4, 2020 - 9:50am

By TF

Thursday Conversation - Alasdair Macleod

Thursday, December 3, 2020 - 3:56pm

With TF

A Frustrating Thursday

Thu, Dec 3, 2020 - 11:14am

By TF

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, December 2

Wed, Dec 2, 2020 - 5:27pm

Withering Green Shoots

Wed, Dec 2, 2020 - 10:22am

By TF

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, December 1

Tuesday, December 1, 2020 - 5:40pm

In yesterday's podcast, we discussed the likelihood of a bounce and the possibility of finally establishing the bottom and low for this seemingly endless consolidation phase. Lo and behold, look at what happened today.

So, in today's podcast, we discuss what to watch from here and how...

More Like It

Tuesday, December 1, 2020 - 10:36am

By TF

I hope you listened to yesterday's podcast as the signs were certainly present that foreshadowed today's bounce. And the question is...Is that it? Is this just an oversold bounce or is this the start of the Comex metals finally rushing to catch back up with everything else?

Again, the...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, November 30

Monday, November 30, 2020 - 4:54pm

The week got off to a better start than it might seem so let's wrap up November and begin to look forward to what promises to be an important month of December.

To that end, just a lengthy general discussion today and then a review of these charts in order:...

Putting November Behind Us

Monday, November 30, 2020 - 10:26am

By TF

What a terrible month November ended up being. After looking great on November 6, the Pfizer news of November 9 was used as cover to completely reverse the break out and now we're down $200 in Comex gold and $4 in Comex silver in the three weeks since. I've seen reports today that this will...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, November 27

Friday, November 27, 2020 - 1:08pm

210

What a day. What a week. What a month. But all three are almost over so please take a few minutes to listen to this podcast over the weekend.

Today has been nothing like what I had hoped it would be. Since early this morning when prices were smashed, it has been madness on this end as...

Desperate Times

Friday, November 27, 2020 - 9:45am

By TF

It's the day after U.S. Thanksgiving. It's a Friday with holiday-shortened trading hours. Generally light volume as traders take a 4-day weekend and most folks are out shopping or watching football. The dollar index is down a few pennies and still under 92. The bond market is rallying a little...

Gobble Up Some Jackass

Wednesday, November 25, 2020 - 6:32pm

With TF

100

Whether you enjoy your holiday Jackass baked, smoked or deep fried, it's always a treat.

My old pal Jim and I will, of course, record our year-in-review in just five weeks. So, for today, I asked Jim to focus upon just one topic...this notion of a pending "Global Reset".

Well...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, November 25

Wednesday, November 25, 2020 - 5:15pm

Gosh, what a day. Long and busy. Tomorrow brings a U.S. market holiday and I'm all for it as I could really use a day off. But first, we have a podcast to record.

This was such a busy day that I feel that most of the news of the day has passed me by. I've tried to play catch up but...

December To Remember?

Wednesday, November 25, 2020 - 10:14am

By TF

Every year at this time, I begin to see television commercials for the car company Lexus. Their annual sale is called "The December To Remember" and the commercials run through the entire football bowl season. Will we have our own "December To Remember" in regards to Comex delivery stress?...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, November 24

Tuesday, November 24, 2020 - 5:32pm

Another day, another price smash designed to coerce and dissuade all parties from standing for December delivery. If you don't quite understand what I mean, please be sure to give this podcast special attention today.

As discussed this morning, that highly unusual purchase and delivery...

Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders