The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Batchelor and Cohen Return

The latest on The New Cold War.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 - 3:30pm

Our friends John and Steve returned last evening for another discussion on the perils of The New Cold War.

The big story last week was the failed Russian cruise missile test that seemed to cause a small-scale nuclear/radiation disaster. Why would the Russians be developing these new...

The Curve Of History

Inversions abound and recession looms.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 - 9:55am

Let's see. How many times have we written about the yield curve since 2015? Twenty?? Thirty??? Well, it sure is interesting to watch the entire world catch on...seemingly all at the same time!

Here's what might have been post #1 on this subject from January 28, 2015:...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, August 13

Tuesday, August 13, 2019 - 5:59pm

It was a wild and volatile day but, in the end, is was just that...a day. By the end of this week, we will look back upon it as either a bump in the road or a possible, short-term peak. However, that's "by the end of the week" and the end of the week is still 72 hours away and God only knows...

A Banker Victory

Trade headlines spark a mass rush for the exits.

Tuesday, August 13, 2019 - 10:10am

In yesterday's podcast, we discussed the idea that global turmoil would lead to a continued surge in bond prices which, in turn, would drive another breakout in CDG and CDS. Up until about 6:00 am EDT, it looked like we were well on our way.

Unfortunately, the global bond market then...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, August 12

Monday, August 12, 2019 - 5:45pm

Oh boy, are we ever on our way to another crazy week! Did you see the bond market today? And how about the events in Hong Kong and Argentina?

Though The Banks are obviously still attempting to restrain price below $1520, if shit spins out of control again overnight (sort of like last...

A Clear and Obvious Cap at $1520

At least The Banks have given us a clear level to watch!

Monday, August 12, 2019 - 10:35am

For months, we've discussed the price target area of $1480-1520. And now, here we are...a few weeks ahead of schedule, actually. Regardless, the price action over the past few days makes it clear that The Banks understand the importance of this level, too.

Again and as a reminder, the...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, August 9

Friday, August 9, 2019 - 5:29pm

It was a fun and volatile week with Comex gold painting its best weekly close since mid-April of 2013. Comex silver appears to be finally breaking out, too, so please be sure to prepare for Monday by listening to this podcast over the weekend.

No links to discuss today as there was...

Closing The Week

Fake gold is dumped in a clear attempt to manage the weekly close.

Friday, August 9, 2019 - 10:57am

We'll try to keep in brief this morning as it's getting late and, really, not much matters other than where prices finish up the day.

And The Banks clearly know this. They came after BOTH gold and silver HARD as soon as London opened for business at 1:00 am CDT...or 7:00 am London....

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, August 8

Thursday, August 8, 2019 - 4:25pm

Wow, it's going to be a real interesting 24 hours so buckle in, look sharp and pay attention.

For today, just this link:

Waiting For Friday

The week is far from over.

Thursday, August 8, 2019 - 10:49am

As expected, prices are back down today after the PBOC pegged the yuan mostly unchanged and just a hair above 7 last evening. But as we discussed in yesterday's podcast, let's see what this evening brings and then get ready for an important weekly close tomorrow.

Again, after pegging...

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories


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by NW VIEW, 1 hour 40 min ago
by sierra skier, Aug 17, 2019 - 7:14pm
by sierra skier, Aug 17, 2019 - 8:30am
by Boggs, Aug 16, 2019 - 7:46pm