The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, October 27

Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - 5:47pm

The good news is we are officially one day closer to putting this US election behind us. Let's celebrate that and then begin to look ahead with a reminder of The Big Picture and how it will dominate our discussion, possibly as soon as next week.

For today, your usual general discussion...

Into The Corner

Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - 9:58am

Well, here we are. Prices have been painted as far as they can into the corners of the pennants we've been watching for weeks. So what comes next? way or the other.

At least it's something to watch this week. With the US election pending for a week from today, there...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, October 26

Monday, October 26, 2020 - 4:56pm

It's only Monday and I'm already exhausted.

Thank heavens that the US election is now just eight days away...but while you're at it, pray that there's a clear-cut winner declared within a few hours of counting the votes. The last the US...or this website some sort of...

Signs of Encouragement

Monday, October 26, 2020 - 10:40am

As we first noticed about ten days ago, the price of Comex gold is slowly being pried away from the grips of the HFT algos. For two months, all that mattered was the day-to-day and tick-for-tick of the POSX but it's clear now that those days are coming to an end.

And you can clearly...

Beer with TF - October 2020


It's time once again for our monthly Happy Hour and Cocktail Party. Please try to join us for all the fun on Friday at 5:00 pm ET.

As long as you all find this fun and informative, then we'll continue to host it each month. The format begins with the recording of your regular Friday...

Will It Ever End?

Friday, October 23, 2020 - 10:58am

The answer is "YES" but that's clearly not happening today. So instead we will look forward to next week with a word of caution.

It has been a LONG time since August 6. We've tried to explain to you how this year is playing out almost identically to last year but that's of little help...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, October 22

Thursday, October 22, 2020 - 5:42pm

Time has gotten away from me this afternoon as I had a few things out of the office that needed to be accomplished.

And it was a good day to ne out of the office, too. The POSX rallied and rates CDG and CDS were in the tank. So today seemed like a VERY good time to discuss...

It Is What It Is

Thursday, October 22, 2020 - 10:25am

Yesterday, we caught what was obviously Bank capping and price manipulation designed to keep Comex gold from moving above its 50-day moving average. Having a decade of experience now, it's pretty easy to spot when you see it and it goes to show...again...that as of yet, nothing has changed....

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, October 21

Wednesday, October 21, 2020 - 5:11pm

It was a very constructive day where the collapsing Pig deflated the hopes of even the most ardent dollar bull. Should/could have the Comex metals had a better day? Yes. But that's OK. Things are definitely moving in our direction now and carbon-based traders begin to assert themselves....

The Plunging Pig

Is this year's autumn PM consolidation coming to a close?

Wednesday, October 21, 2020 - 10:17am

Where'd all the dollar bulls go? Just three weeks ago, they were everywhere! But now I click around on Twitter and there's hardly a peep. Maybe those smarty-cats aren't so smart after all?

Which makes me think of this. I recall posting this link two weeks ago when it appeared. While I'...

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI


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