The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, May 10

Tuesday, May 10, 2022 - 5:54pm

We are now very close to making the lows of 2022...though it's not like we should get any bonus points for stating the obvious. But we did warn in this year's macrocast that the lows for 2022 would come during the first third of the year and, since we're only going to be off by a few days, I...

Goon Avalanche

Tuesday, May 10, 2022 - 10:42am

As mentioned yesterday, today brings five...count em, FIVE!!...publicity-seeking Fed Goons to the microphone. We've already gotten a few laughs from the first two and can only imagine the comedic stylings that the remaining four will bring.

Let's start with the list, however, Goon...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, May 9

Monday, May 9, 2022 - 5:08pm

With Friday's breakdown in the S&P, we worried that today would bring another surge of general liquidations where everything with a bid...and especially with a trading gain...gets liquidated in order to avoid margin calls in other sectors. And here we are.

And it's far from over....

Red Monday

Monday, May 9, 2022 - 10:35am

As expected, the week has begun downward. Let's just hope it doesn't turn into Red Week.

So here we go. Much angst and chagrin over the weekend at how bad things might get across all markets in the week ahead. It's still hard to believe it was just three weeks ago today that CDG was $...

TFMR Podcast - Saturday, May 7

Saturday, May 7, 2022 - 12:07pm

It was a day of celebration for the for MrsF and I yesterday but it's back to work, doom and gloom today. You may think of me as a contrary indicator and that's fine. However, I'm beginning to feel like Sarah Connor and, if you know the movie reference, this podcast will make clear why I feel...

Where To Start As The Week Ends?

Friday, May 6, 2022 - 10:55am

What a crazy week this has been, punctuated today by an insanely ridiculous BLSBS and accompanying reaction. And where does it all go from here?

So where do we start on another day like this? At least it's Friday so we don't have to do this again for 72 hours! I guess we should begin...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, May 5

Thursday, May 5, 2022 - 5:18pm

I don't even know what to say...but I managed to fill up 21 minutes, regardless.

At least it's Cinco de Mayo so, if you feel like it, no one is going to look at you sideways if you go out and get stinking drunk. And who could blame you? This is madness. Absolutely crazy.

So we...

Post Powell Thursday

Thursday, May 5, 2022 - 9:43am

The Comex precious metals have continued higher this morning following the rally of late Wednesday. Powell's press conference comments, combined with some additional stagflationary data, have even allowed the continued rally in the face of bouncing POSX. OK, I'll take it.

So let's...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, May 4

Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 5:21pm

The May FOMC has come and gone and, with it, any remaining sense of Fed credibility.

What a joke. What a painful joke. As your friendly host, it's always incumbent upon me to pay attention and monitor events like today's "press conference" and, what did I hear today? Not much, but this...

May FOMC Day Two

Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 10:20am

OK, here we go. The fun begins at 2:00 pm ET with the Fedlines and is quickly followed up by Chief Goon Powell and his "press conference" at 2:30 pm. It should be quite entertaining to watch so you know what that means....Hat Contest!!

Oh, gosh. I actually hate this stuff. Back in the...

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/9

5/9 11:00 ET 1-3 year inflation expectations
5/10 7:40 ET Goon Williams
5/10 9:15 ET Goon Barkin
5/10 1:00 ET Goons Waller and Kashnkari
5/10 3:00 ET Goon Mester
5/11 8:30 ET CPI
5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic
5/12 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 8:30 ET Import Prices
5/13 10:00 ET UMich inflation expectations
5/13 11:00 ET Goon Kashnkari
5/13 12:00 ET Goon Mester


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