The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, March 26

Thursday, March 26, 2020 - 5:18pm

The first week of life with overt QE∞ is nearing the end so today we take time to assess the events of the week and look ahead at levels to watch into the Friday close.

For today, just these two links. I'll add a third if Cory publishes out KER audio later today.

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Two Recent Interviews

Thursday, March 26, 2020 - 5:05pm

There's A LOT going on and so much is happening very quickly. To that end, I know it's hard to keep up. So I thought I'd put together this public thread of two recent interviews.

The first was recorded Tuesday evening at the end of a very long day where the LBMA/COMEX actually walked...

Collapsing Comex Open Interest

A very interesting trend.

Thursday, March 26, 2020 - 10:55am

Even though Comex Digital Gold is back to multi-year highs, the total contract open interest continues to decline. While this may be mostly due to the pending "expiration" of the Apr20 contract, the drop from alltime highs is remarkable. Even more remarkable is the utter collapse in the total...

Thursday Conversation - Willem Middelkoop

Wednesday, March 25, 2020 - 3:00pm

Here's another "Thursday Conversation" that is recorded and posted on Wednesday. Maybe it's time to rename these weekly podcasts? Either way, if you're interested in what might happen next...aka The Big sure to listen to this discussion as Willem literally wrote the book on this...

The COMEX/LBMA Teeters

Wednesday, March 25, 2020 - 10:46am

It now appears that there were, in fact, major issues with several bullion banks yesterday. Though trading is "back to normal" today, cracks in the facade have been exposed and more people than ever are coming to terms with the realization that gold and silver are priced through a fraudulent,...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, March 24

Tuesday, March 24, 2020 - 6:15pm

It was another epic day for the Comex digital metals as CDG surged by more than $100 and CDS rallied $1.13. Reports are circulating of extreme physical tightness...even at the wholesale level...and this is prompting all sorts of new trading/hedging issues and "sell-only" restrictions.


$200 In 24 Hours

Tuesday, March 24, 2020 - 10:32am

Well, this has certainly been a week to remember....and it's only Tuesday.

Not really sure where to start this morning but I guess we'll go with this chart:...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, March 23

Monday, March 23, 2020 - 5:18pm

QE∞ is laid bare for all to see and the Comex digital metals posted some of their largest one-day gains ever recorded. So where do we go from here?

Short-term? That's pretty hard to say. Long-term? Well, we've been planning for that case for almost a decade now....


Please read and forward this free public thread.

Monday, March 23, 2020 - 10:47am

What's the old adage about how "first they laugh at you, then they criticize you", that whole thing? Well, ten years on, all of our talk about The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment is seemingly playing out before your eyes. I hope you prepared accordingly.

Every Sunday, MrsF and I...

Let’s Pause for a Moment and Reflect

Friday, March 20, 2020 - 9:22pm

Hysteria: behavior exhibiting overwhelming or unmanageable fear or emotional excess."

Here we are, Spring, 2020, and from all quarters, all at once, hysteria abounds....

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/24

2/25 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/26 10:00 ET New home sales
2/27 8:30 ET Q4 GDP second guess
2/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
2/27 11:30 ET Goon Evans speech
2/28 8:30 ET Pers Income and Spending
2/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
2/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/10

2/11 10:00 ET Job Openings
2/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
2/12 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
2/13 8:30 ET CPI
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
2/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/3

2/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/5 8:15 ET ADP Employment
2/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
2/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod


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