Silver and those Long Cycles

Sun, Dec 13, 2020 - 7:02pm

Every couple of years I refresh the long wave view for precious metals with a big cycle review.

It's been a few years since I updated the big picture of silver cycles, so here are some new views for readers to pore over and accept, or dismiss, or modify, their implications depending on how convincing they look, or fail to look!

So let's get started:

Is there a thirty year cycle in the price of silver?

We only have one wave back to consider if there is, so number of comparisons with the present day is limited. that's unfortunate.

But we can still have a look at the one past wave, and at now, and make tentative conclusions, can't we?

Since I prefer slightly longer than thirty exactly, and this is my work, I made the necessary fine tuning adjustments. Here is a 31.5 year possible wave:

Some observations about the above chart.

1. That's a lot of price data history, so it's a quarterly bar chart.

2. If there is a 31.5 year cycle, the Hunt Brothers top overlaps the recent silver highs, and that's very interesting to see.

3. For easy reference I redrew the 30 year ago prices on top of today in blue. it makes it easier to compare the two for likeness, or correlation.

4. I put vertical lines in blue and red on. The period of time in-between them encloses the hard part of the bear 30 years ago, and allows a comparison with how long it would be if that were to repeat (or take the same amount of time) this time around.

5. If this wave is a thing - did it flicker into opposite or inverted at the start of 2020 or not? This wouldn't affect the timing, but the direction looks like this is a possibility.

Next big wave....

Is there a sixteen year cycle in silver?

Let's have a look with a quarterly chart:

I make the following observation about that. You'd want to consider the possibility that if there is a sixteen year repetitive wave in silver, it could just be running inverted, or upside down this time round.

Again I redrew the 16 years ago on top in blue to a comparison can be made easier. I also noticed a wiggle in the not too far future and in case that matters I added a date which we can take a note of. In case it becomes important.

Next let's examine eight years for possible cycles in silver.

I have put the eight year vertical lines in, and also added red lines a little bit offset from the half way points between the former datelines.

So this enables me to check for a possible eight years wave, but also have a study to find if there might a four wave cycle hiding in-between the eight year turns.

Now you can count forwards from any significant top or bottom or turn to get a date of interest. But I added the date of the next vertical line for convenience. It could matter when it arrives. We have to decide for ourself, and watch and wait.

Just a note about eight years. A US president who serves two terms is in power for eight years. but not all presidents get the honour to serve twice, so, an eight year wave could be something that comes and goes away, and comes back agian. if that were to be the cause I mean.

if something else is the cause, then the US president just got to to add their name to this wave but really it is something else that the real cause. So, does it come and go, and sometimes skip four years before restarting or not?

The four year intrigued me enough that I wanted to see if there might be two year cycle in silver.

Here is a chart showing a possible two year cycle. Look and see for yourself if this is convincing or not:

I like that one quite a bit.

Now the above possible cycles in silver are all sort of related. In a certain way the form a family. Each wave is half the size of the previous wave, and two smaller ones fit inside one of the next bigger of the same. This is called "nested" cycles in my vocabulary about these.

I pointed that out because the next possible silver cycle is unrelated, and not a part of the above cycle periods.

Here is a possible five year cycle in silver:

that planted some datelines on plenty of significant silver pivots.

But it also missed other important pivots. So I did this one a second time, but shifted the vertical lines to locate other turns in silver with a five years apart synchrony.

Here is the second different view, of the same five year cycle:

I noticed that in this possible view there seemed to be a tendency for silver to do something interesting just after getting past the red date line. Sharp trends seem to occur around those points in time for whatever reason.

So there you are.

Have as much of a look as you wish for as long as you want, and see if you find something interesting or helpful in them.

Best regards,

Argentus Maximus


The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmAndPrice. The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.

About the Author


Dec 15, 2020 - 2:32am

@Jpoher: It seems appropriate

@Jpoher: It seems appropriate.


Dec 14, 2020 - 10:04pm

Sheesh, Sorry for being Obtuse . . .

Argentus, please accept my apologies for confusing you with Andrew Maguire. Thank you for your contribution of making and sharing the charts. Much appreciated.

Dec 14, 2020 - 8:56pm

Ramsland errors were corrected

I was aware of the original affidavit confusing Michigan and Minnesota precincts. Those errors were corrected and numerous anomalies remain, including absurd voter turnout.

As I have written before, I don't really care who wins elections. I'm not a big fan of Trump either, although I think his administration is slightly less evil than Biden's would be. I want the rule of law to apply equally to everyone. I want crimes to be prosecuted without prejudice or favor. I'm tired of being lied to and then being called a kook when I don't believe the lies.

You an I are living in parallel alternate universes, so I am not sure you will ever agree with me.

CrawtestdadAngry Chef
Dec 14, 2020 - 8:14pm

Hyperpartisan site?

You certainly don't get a wide range of views. Why pretend otherwise here?

Dec 14, 2020 - 8:08pm
Dec 14, 2020 - 8:00pm


I think you mean TSLA call options.

Dec 14, 2020 - 7:59pm

Ragsdale the absolute CLOWN

This is the same guy who cited data from Minnesota in the Michigan case, too stupid to even get the right state. He's also the clown who claimed ~780% turnout when the actual number was 78%. Only an idiot wouldn't be extremely skeptical of this report, particularly given Trump's incredible losing streak of election rechallenges, not not mention all the defectors who say he is shit, the Americans he has gotten killed by COVID, etc.

We'll see but I suspect this report will be throughly debunked, like all the cesspool conspiracies, quack cures, etc.

CrawtestdadTexas Sandman
Dec 14, 2020 - 7:55pm

Ivermectin can kill

Hopefully you don't give anyone some lethal advice. Has it been studied at the relevant IC50 concentrations. Do you even know??

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Dec 14, 2020 - 7:54pm

Thanks Argentus

I just want to say thanks for stepping up to the plate and pitching in for Turd.

CrawtestdadRonnie 666
Dec 14, 2020 - 7:34pm

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Become member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 3/1

3/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 1:00 ET Goon Brainard
3/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
3/3 12:00 ET Goon Bostic
3/3 2:00 ET Goon Evans
3/4 8:30 ET Unit Labor Costs
3/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/4 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell
3/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 2/22

2/22 10:00 ET LEIII
2/23 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/23 10:00 ET CGP at US Senate
2/24 10:00 ET CGP at US House
2/24 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
2/25 8:30 ET Jobless claims
2/25 8:30 ET Durable goods
2/25 10:30 ET Goon Bullard
2/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
2/26 8:30 ET Core inflation
2/26 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/26 10:00 ET UMich sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/15

2/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/17 8:30 ET PPI
2/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
2/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
2/17 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/18 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/18 8:30 ET Import price index
2/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/19 9:45 ET Markit Feb flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/8

2/8 12:00 ET Goon Mester speech
2/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
2/10 8:30 ET CPI
2/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
2/10 2:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
2/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/1

2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
2/3 8:15 ET ADP employment report
2/3 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
2/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
2/4 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/4 10:00 ET Factory orders
2/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 1/25

1/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/26 1:30 ET Comex option expiration
1/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/27 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
1/27 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
1/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
1/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
1/20 12:00 ET POTUS Inauguration
1/21 ECB meeting and rate decision
1/21 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
1/22 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 1/11

1/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
1/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
1/13 8:30 ET CPI
1/13 1:00 ET Goon Brainard speech
1/13 2:00 ET Beige Book
1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/4

1/4 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
1/4 10:00 ET Construction Spending
1/5 Georgia U.S. Senate election
1/5 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
1/6 US election certification
1/6 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
1/6 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
1/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/8 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
12/22 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/22 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
12/23 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/23 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
12/23 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by Solsson, 10 hours 18 min ago
by UncleFester, Mar 1, 2021 - 2:01pm
by Pete, Feb 28, 2021 - 5:17pm
by Solsson, Feb 28, 2021 - 10:58am
by argentus maximus, Feb 28, 2021 - 8:22am