Silver and those Long Cycles

Sun, Dec 13, 2020 - 7:02pm

Every couple of years I refresh the long wave view for precious metals with a big cycle review.

It's been a few years since I updated the big picture of silver cycles, so here are some new views for readers to pore over and accept, or dismiss, or modify, their implications depending on how convincing they look, or fail to look!

So let's get started:

Is there a thirty year cycle in the price of silver?

We only have one wave back to consider if there is, so number of comparisons with the present day is limited. that's unfortunate.

But we can still have a look at the one past wave, and at now, and make tentative conclusions, can't we?

Since I prefer slightly longer than thirty exactly, and this is my work, I made the necessary fine tuning adjustments. Here is a 31.5 year possible wave:

Some observations about the above chart.

1. That's a lot of price data history, so it's a quarterly bar chart.

2. If there is a 31.5 year cycle, the Hunt Brothers top overlaps the recent silver highs, and that's very interesting to see.

3. For easy reference I redrew the 30 year ago prices on top of today in blue. it makes it easier to compare the two for likeness, or correlation.

4. I put vertical lines in blue and red on. The period of time in-between them encloses the hard part of the bear 30 years ago, and allows a comparison with how long it would be if that were to repeat (or take the same amount of time) this time around.

5. If this wave is a thing - did it flicker into opposite or inverted at the start of 2020 or not? This wouldn't affect the timing, but the direction looks like this is a possibility.

Next big wave....

Is there a sixteen year cycle in silver?

Let's have a look with a quarterly chart:

I make the following observation about that. You'd want to consider the possibility that if there is a sixteen year repetitive wave in silver, it could just be running inverted, or upside down this time round.

Again I redrew the 16 years ago on top in blue to a comparison can be made easier. I also noticed a wiggle in the not too far future and in case that matters I added a date which we can take a note of. In case it becomes important.

Next let's examine eight years for possible cycles in silver.

I have put the eight year vertical lines in, and also added red lines a little bit offset from the half way points between the former datelines.

So this enables me to check for a possible eight years wave, but also have a study to find if there might a four wave cycle hiding in-between the eight year turns.

Now you can count forwards from any significant top or bottom or turn to get a date of interest. But I added the date of the next vertical line for convenience. It could matter when it arrives. We have to decide for ourself, and watch and wait.

Just a note about eight years. A US president who serves two terms is in power for eight years. but not all presidents get the honour to serve twice, so, an eight year wave could be something that comes and goes away, and comes back agian. if that were to be the cause I mean.

if something else is the cause, then the US president just got to to add their name to this wave but really it is something else that the real cause. So, does it come and go, and sometimes skip four years before restarting or not?

The four year intrigued me enough that I wanted to see if there might be two year cycle in silver.

Here is a chart showing a possible two year cycle. Look and see for yourself if this is convincing or not:

I like that one quite a bit.

Now the above possible cycles in silver are all sort of related. In a certain way the form a family. Each wave is half the size of the previous wave, and two smaller ones fit inside one of the next bigger of the same. This is called "nested" cycles in my vocabulary about these.

I pointed that out because the next possible silver cycle is unrelated, and not a part of the above cycle periods.

Here is a possible five year cycle in silver:

that planted some datelines on plenty of significant silver pivots.

But it also missed other important pivots. So I did this one a second time, but shifted the vertical lines to locate other turns in silver with a five years apart synchrony.

Here is the second different view, of the same five year cycle:

I noticed that in this possible view there seemed to be a tendency for silver to do something interesting just after getting past the red date line. Sharp trends seem to occur around those points in time for whatever reason.

So there you are.

Have as much of a look as you wish for as long as you want, and see if you find something interesting or helpful in them.

Best regards,

Argentus Maximus


The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmAndPrice. The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.

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