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TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, December 4

What a humdinger of a day!


It was a wildly volatile day with huge moves in both the stock and bond markets. All the while, Comex gold held firm with a stronger yuan. With the US "stock market" closed tomorrow, more craziness is definitely in store for later this week.

After a lengthy general discussion, we begin today by urging you to read this week's post for Sprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/what-is-mr-palladium-telling-us-craig-h...

And now check this tweet from David Jensen and the latest palladium chart:

Next we discuss the POSX and the S&P:

And we close with updated charts of CDG and CDS:

Lastly, don't forget that it's Tuesday. If you're free at 10:00 pm EDT tonight, you can stream John Batchelor and Professor Cohen at great radio stations such as WABC in New York or WMAL in Washington. Though we'll post the recorded copy on Wednesday, I strongly encourage you to listen live if you can find the time.

More tomorrow,



Dec 4, 2018 - 5:22pm

First again

Two days in a row. I guess I should buy a lottery ticket because my investment in miners sucked this year. Today that's not true as Garabaldi was up 13%, Irving up 10% and Westhaven up 4%.

Dec 4, 2018 - 5:30pm
TF Metals fan
Dec 4, 2018 - 5:33pm


What a day!!

Dec 4, 2018 - 6:03pm


Anybody have any idea why Provident Metals would be selling 1 oz. palladium bars for $10 under spot and Canadian maple Leaf palladium coins for the same price? I thought there was a shortage causing the price rise and premiums should be high.

Thomas More
Dec 4, 2018 - 6:23pm

What a difference a day makes

Dinah Washington: What Difference A Day Makes

Good Night

Still haven't figured out how to post a song.

Stackable sakelley
Dec 4, 2018 - 6:31pm

Palladium at Provident Metals

It says they are on sale. Provident may be taking advantage of the high prices to raise some cash.

Dec 4, 2018 - 6:42pm

Provident was one of the dealers offering $100

over purchase price for the Pd coin that the U.S. Mint issued a month or so ago. I tried to buy one and it was sold out in minutes.

sakelley Stackable
Dec 4, 2018 - 6:55pm

Last week they were on sale

Last week they were on sale at spot. Makes me wonder if this is not a contrived shortage for one reason or another. if there really is a massive shortage, the premiums should be very high. Maybe I am missing something here. This is the first time I have ever seen a precious metal being sold for under spot since back about a decade ago or so when constitutional silver could be bought for under melt value. Something about this whole palladium thing just does not smell right.

Dec 4, 2018 - 7:06pm

So who's the sucker...

So who's the sucker...

1. The guy giving up his physical palladium or...

2. The guy leasing it at 22%

Possibly both

Dec 4, 2018 - 7:20pm

Debt Clock Math

After looking at the debt clock Turd posted today, I grabbed a broken pencil and a napkin. A hair over 10 years ago Bush's fiscal year 2008 ended and saw the debt at approx. 9.5 trillion. The history books were then 'doctored' years later to show 10.2 trillion in honor of his TARP loan of 700 billion even though it was all paid back to Obama (spent). Taking today's total of 21.8 trillion and deducting Bush's original 9.5 trillion we get 12.3 trillion total accumulated debt over 10 years for a yearly average of 1.23 trillion per year. Mind blowing when you realize it's only going to get worse. We are watching the train wreck, collapse, pile up in slow motion.

The you realize.....

The Power of Gold
Dec 4, 2018 - 7:47pm

I have learned...

Once something is touted by many that it is too late, e.g. Novo, First Mining Gold, First Majestic Silver, Gold when it was $1700, Silver when it was $38, and sadly Royal Nickel (which I am still hopeful for), and now .... Palladium.

PS: and lets not forget Bitcoin.

Dec 4, 2018 - 8:21pm

Re: I have learned....

We have learned how PMs act in a criminal manipulated world...we have yet to learn what their value may be in a supply/demand physical exchange based market...,

Dec 4, 2018 - 8:45pm


I agree completely. What do you think gets us to a supply/demand physical exchange/market. What needs to change?

Dec 4, 2018 - 10:16pm

Cash only debt

Makes no sense comparing absolute dollars of debt per time without the exponential math function that models the debt curve. The dollars of additional are simply a function of the mathematical function. I agree something has to give but the question is how long can they keep it together as the dollars required for the steep "ski slope" are very predictable from the mathematical function.

Dec 4, 2018 - 11:25pm

It is almost bedtime in the NW but my daydream jumped up:

Daydreamer: I was sitting by the creek, fishing for that huge salmon run, fish jumping everywhere. Then, out of nowhere, a time traveler appeared. He said: "The days will come, in your lifetime, when you will not be allowed to play cowboys and Indians. No bows and arrows or cap guns to shoot. People will be using "F" bombs in public, even the women, and the movies will be filled with vile languages that you have never heard before. Witchcraft will take control of Hollywood and Disney. Millions of abortions will plague the land and they will be legal. You will not be allow to take your hunting rifles to school during hunting season. Illegal drugs will flow like water, from our schools and even within our once safe cities. You will be robbed of giving an opinion, learning what political correctness is about and you will need to be quiet about perverts and degenerates. Reprobates will fill the political offices and also have the news media hiring them as news castors. Rock bands will take over the worship hour in many steeple houses as degenerates become the head pastors of many divided systems of men. Politicians will attack anyone who runs against them and the days of "I Like Ike" will never return". Oh what an impossible daydream from 1950's.


"I Like Ike" 1952 Eisenhower Presidential Campaign Commercial; Roy Disney Cartoon

Dec 4, 2018 - 11:31pm


First of all, no one here is advocating that anyone immediately go out and buy a bar of palladium. The only reason I care about palladium is the potential consequences it could pose to the system.

And please don't make the mistake of equating a few retail coins at spot with the lease rates for wholesale bars in London. The two are NOT mutually exclusive and thus have ZERO connection.

Dec 4, 2018 - 11:55pm
Dec 5, 2018 - 1:06am

The cute looking blond woman in the podcast picture....

Is she Hillary Clinton?

@Thomas More...Here is my fave version of that song.

PAULINE LONDON - What a difference a day makes (with lyrics)
Thomas More
Dec 5, 2018 - 3:57am

posting for Dr J

Very Brazilian Canary.

Taxes - or should I say Death and Taxes

At what point is enough, enough? And maybe that is one of the tricks of governing - Machiaveli - the Prince - knowing when to stop. I am not going to run a blog on this topic, but les gilets jaunes seem to represent the moment of Truth when beggaring Peter to pay Paul - the rubber meets the road - has its' moment of awakening.

I mentioned that in my town there is a farmer's market. I was buying sausages, pork, etc when I overheard someone complaining that Macron should tax the rich - he took off the tax ISF, a tax on your wealth above a certain level - the S stands for solidarity, the F for fortune, the I for impôt or tax. To which I started grumbling - That's right, it's OK to tax someone else - as long as it's someone else that pays. This seriously reminds me of "Prisoner's dilemma" that I studied in psychology 101 while taking an engineering degree.

Anyway Dr J - feel free to take the ball and run with it:


cashonly linz47
Dec 5, 2018 - 5:51am

Cash only debt

Linz47, To think it took 220+ years to accumulate 9.5 trillion in debt and 12 trillion was needed to advance another 10 years, one can surmise in their mind's eye what the exponential would look like: "gradually then suddenly".

Thank goodness our banks see U.S. Government debt as an asset and will monetize it: https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-rules-of-the-bond-game_2600435.html

Dec 5, 2018 - 8:37am


Sure hope that palladium physical demand hurts the crimex criminal banks.

Who's to say that Russia isn't buying from the London market, you know, to get physical pricing disconnected from the fake paper pricing.

It would make sense for the coin shops to make a little quick fiat on palladium coins, while the big companies are trying to secure tons for their manufacturing on the London market.

Dumb question, how fast do the London criminals invent an EFP for palladium with an added fiat bonus?

Dec 5, 2018 - 9:02am

Novo vote...

December 5th Novo had the Annual General Meeting...How did the vote go?...Did they left things unchanged?

Dec 5, 2018 - 9:20am


If I did the math correctly, we are all 67K in debt, thanks to our government. Every year, we all go another 4K in debt...

Edit: Just saw your post Thomas... haven't had enough coffee to think deeply yet.

I was approached at a public park and asked to support a proposition to raise teacher salaries just before the last election. I'm a teacher. "Sure" I said. The I asked the girl gathering signatures "How are we going to pay for this?" She said ... wait for it ... "We will tax the rich."

These young socialists (like my daughter) do not yet understand that the rich do not pay enough tax to support the rest of their country. Hell, I am not rich, and I don't pay any tax 4 out of 5 years due to cushy real estate laws in the US.

(Wait a minute... maybe I really am rich if I don't pay tax...)

Need more coffee

Dec 5, 2018 - 10:12am

more gains today

Palladium futures up another 1.5%. Spot is up more than 2%!

Dec 5, 2018 - 10:43am

Garibaldi and Novo

Garabaldi has a Vancouver presentation tomorrow afternoon but no NR as of yet. However the stock is up 23% today on top of yesterdays 13%. Anybody know if there is substantive news coming or is this just a short covering squeeze. Anyways Eric must be happy as I know I am. Novo resources is having their AGM this morning in Vancouver. News probably not until 3PM today. Moriarity of 321 Gold has implied that it could be important in Sprott trying to control the company

Dec 5, 2018 - 1:12pm


What we need is a 3x palladium ETF for options and daytrading so we can all get rich quick. I'd go broke for sure!

Thanks for the head's up Turd, though you should probably take the day off.

I have a friend who’s a retired anthropology teacher. Years ago, he is to take students down to some country in South America to dig around in ancient ruins. He and his students would take a helicopter to get into the dig site. On one of the trips the helicopter pilot mentioned to him that they are to keep their eyes open for platinum nuggets in the creek and around the edges of the creek. So they did. My friend found a couple of nice nuggets and sold them to the helicopter pilot at something under spot price. But it was a significant amount of money, enough to pay for their transportation in and out of the dig area via helicopter with some left over to cover other expenses.

Frankly, I don’t see any reason why the cartel isn’t going to get control of the price of palladium and platinum using the same means they have for silver gold and bitcoin. They just have to make it through this palladium delivery disaster first. Then my guess is they’ll bring the hammer down on some speculators, buy their way out of the problems, and set up some pretty severe manipulative price control mechanisms.

Call me cynical.

But I still hold some hope with Turd that this current situation might expose Comex, and could possibly lead to a delivery failure, lawsuits, forcing a federal judge to look into the criminal dealings at the Comex exchange.

Dec 5, 2018 - 2:35pm

It is not just the Yellow Jackets that are singing this song.

This sentiment is growing around the world and is reshaping the world, slowly at first and then suddenly!

Do you hear the people sing? Singing the songs of angry men?
It is the music of the people who will not be slaves again!
When the beating of your heart echoes the beating of the drums
There is a life about to start when tomorrow comes!

Sung in 17 different countries.

Les Miserables: Do you hear the people sing: Sung by 17 Valjeans from around the world
Dec 5, 2018 - 2:51pm

RE: Yelllow Jackets

I give up. Can't make it play Grrr!! Keep Stacking
Dec 5, 2018 - 9:35pm


You can fly a Bonanza, (IFR?) and you can't figure out a little 'puter problem?

I know, I know. Flying is easy compared to this stuff.

From Network: Mad as hell and not gonna take it anymore!

I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore! Speech from Network (1080p)
Dec 5, 2018 - 9:37pm


Why don't you switch search engines? The more people that do switch, the less powerful gurgle becomes. duckduckgo.com Just sayn'


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Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
3/20 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
3/20 2:30 ET CGP presser
3/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
3/22 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
3/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
3/22 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
3/11 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Dec)
3/12 8:30 ET CPI (Feb)
3/13 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Jan)
3/13 8:30 ET PPI (Feb)
3/14 8:30 ET Import Prices (Feb)
3/14 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Jan)
3/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
3/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
3/5 10:00 ET New home sales (Dec)
3/6 8:30 ET Trade Balance (Dec)
3/7 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
3/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/8 8:30 ET Housing starts (Jan)