More Trouble for Chief Goon Powell

Time is running out for CGP and his rate hike scheme.

47
Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 9:56am

We wrote two weeks ago about CGP painting himself into a corner. That corner got even tighter today and it will soon close, leaving him with zero remaining options.

It's coming at CGP from multiple directions today. First, Trump in all his glory, pounded away in an interview posted late yesterday. Click the link and see how Trump states that he's "very unhappy" with CGP and his Fed. Hilariously, he also states that he thought Mother was "too short" for the job! https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-slams-fed-chair-questions-...

But the economic news for CGP was just as bad today. The US economy is clearly slowing and the inflation boogeyman that he claims to be fighting is shrinking away. So, other than enriching his owner banks through higher rates, what justification does CGP have left for his rate hike scheme?

So can you see how this is all coming together for us in Q1 and all of 2019. Once we get through the December FOMC, it will become abundantly clear that The Fed will NOT be hiking four times next year...in fact, they may not be able to do it more than once! As this reality sets in, Comex precious metal prices will turn and we'll be on course for a MUCH better year than 2018. Rates will tumble, not soar. The POSX will fall, not rise. And CB balance sheets will grow, not shrink.

But, again, don't expect this to all of a sudden manifest itself on Thursday. Turning the battleship of sentiment and expectation is going to come slowly. Even in 2016, when the first half of the the year saw gains of 30% in CDG and 50% in CDS, the event unfolded slowly at first. Price jumped out of the Dec15 FOMC and then ground higher through January. So we're likely going to need to remain patient and watch for dips to trade/buy.

Also complicating the matter is the persistent "peg" of CDG and the yuan. All of this potentially bullish news for Comex gold today and yet price has barely budged. Why? Because all of the concern regarding The Trade War and this weekend's G-20 has kept the CNY in check and, thus, Comex gold, too.

We'll need to watch for a resolution of this trade war stuff in Q1 or sooner. Once that's behind us...and my hope is that Trump will be willing to negotiate given the weakening US economy...perhaps the pair will decouple and CDG will get back to trading more traditional drivers.

In other news...

The situation in Ukraine continues to grow more confusing and concerning. Here are a couple of links you should be sure to see:

This new post from SRSrocco is worth reviewing: https://srsroccoreport.com/investment-demand-still-the-largest-growth-se...

And yesterday's open interest numbers are in and total Comex gold OI fell by another 8,000 contracts. This brings the drop over the just the past three days to more than 67,000 contracts or about 13%. That's nearly 280 METRIC TONNES of digital gold obligations that have simply disappeared and closed out by The Banks.

Again, what SHAM this all is. Nowhere was any actual physical gold ever exchanged and thus valued/priced. Instead, trading of this make believe "gold exposure" is what determines the physical price, and this gold exposure can be created and destroyed through a few, simple keystrokes by the market-making Comex bullion banks! In yesterday's podcast, I forgot to include the link to the Econ 101 post that we wrote in 2017. Here it is again in case you need a refresher of how this all works and why it such a crime/sham/scam versus how other "markets" operate: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8252/econ-101-silver-market-manipula...

OK, so now it's time to stop and get this posted. The moving truck has arrived and MamaFerg needs me to supervise and assist. It's going to be a long day and it will likely be late evening before I can make it back to Turdfork. If I can get back early enough, then I'll attempt to record a quick podcast. If not, then this will be the only post of the day. Regardless, regular TFMR service will resume tomorrow...provided I don't end up hospitalized with back spasms!

Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

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  47 Comments

Nov 28, 2018 - 10:03am

Even more trouble for CGP:

Even more trouble for CGP:

Stackable
Nov 28, 2018 - 10:04am

Thanks for the early morning

Thanks for the early morning post!

silver66TF
Nov 28, 2018 - 10:26am

Turd a question, how is a 5%

Turd a question, how is a 5% drop an implosion?

I agree that rate hikes are nearing the top end of what the FED can do, however, I have been wrong so often on what I think the FED will do people should not listen to me.

It seems to me that ZH, which I read daily has gone full Doom Pron in their reporting

Silver66

Orange
Nov 28, 2018 - 10:38am

Columbia SC Press Conference

Columbia SC Press Conference

Live, starts at 10:30

https://www.wistv.com/2018/11/28/watch-live-us-attorney-military-investi...

Edit: Wow looks at the depts. involved. Now that all the elections are finished, will the shit hit the fan?

EDIT EDIT, what a waste of time, just local nudes with the miliary. Why not go after the real shits!

Represented at the press conference will be members of the Naval Criminal Investigative Services (NCIS), U.S. Army Criminal Investigations Command (CID), Air Force Office of Special Investigations (AFOSI), Department of Defense Criminal Investigative Services (DCIS), Internal Revenue Service – Criminal Investigations (IRS-CI), United States Marshals Service (USMS), the South Carolina Department of Corrections (SCDC), the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division (SLED), and the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

Libero
Nov 28, 2018 - 10:51am

I don't think anyone thinks

I don't think anyone thinks that the fed will keep hiking interest rates four times next year. And remember, the more they can hike rates now, the more they can lower rates next.

The housing market is feeling the effects of mortgage rate hikes right now. We've been spoiled with low rates for so long. A 5% mortgage rate is almost twice what it was at its low, and take into account that the gubmint will be paying twice as much in interest on massive rising debt. We are doomed!

Just when do the PMs reclaim their historic flight to safety though?

Marcus
Nov 28, 2018 - 11:32am

Meaningful or not?

Meaningful or not?

Gold & Silver Bullion: BANNED By Canada Post! What's Next?

Gold & Silver Bullion: BANNED By Canada Post! What's Next?

canary
Nov 28, 2018 - 11:46am

@Libero...Just when do the

@Libero...Just when do the PMs reclaim their historic flight to safety though?

When Trump takes over and becomes a Fed chair.

Ozymandias
Nov 28, 2018 - 11:59am

Will DOJ Finally Hold Bullion

Will DOJ Finally Hold Bullion Banks Accountable for Market Rigging?

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/11/26/bullion-banks-market-rigging...

The DOJ plays differently than the CFTC

Blackwatersailor
Nov 28, 2018 - 12:00pm

Here is something to read by

Here is something to read by a great man to another. Too bad it will never make it to the second party.

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/364?idioma=2

Wizdum
Nov 28, 2018 - 12:10pm

ya'll dontcha understand ??!?

ya'll dontcha understand ??!?!

They need to raise the raise the rates so they can LOWER the rates...
makes 984% sense..!!

Herfy Derfy Big Macs and Cheese

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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