More Trouble for Chief Goon Powell

Time is running out for CGP and his rate hike scheme.

Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 9:56am

We wrote two weeks ago about CGP painting himself into a corner. That corner got even tighter today and it will soon close, leaving him with zero remaining options.

It's coming at CGP from multiple directions today. First, Trump in all his glory, pounded away in an interview posted late yesterday. Click the link and see how Trump states that he's "very unhappy" with CGP and his Fed. Hilariously, he also states that he thought Mother was "too short" for the job!

But the economic news for CGP was just as bad today. The US economy is clearly slowing and the inflation boogeyman that he claims to be fighting is shrinking away. So, other than enriching his owner banks through higher rates, what justification does CGP have left for his rate hike scheme?

So can you see how this is all coming together for us in Q1 and all of 2019. Once we get through the December FOMC, it will become abundantly clear that The Fed will NOT be hiking four times next fact, they may not be able to do it more than once! As this reality sets in, Comex precious metal prices will turn and we'll be on course for a MUCH better year than 2018. Rates will tumble, not soar. The POSX will fall, not rise. And CB balance sheets will grow, not shrink.

But, again, don't expect this to all of a sudden manifest itself on Thursday. Turning the battleship of sentiment and expectation is going to come slowly. Even in 2016, when the first half of the the year saw gains of 30% in CDG and 50% in CDS, the event unfolded slowly at first. Price jumped out of the Dec15 FOMC and then ground higher through January. So we're likely going to need to remain patient and watch for dips to trade/buy.

Also complicating the matter is the persistent "peg" of CDG and the yuan. All of this potentially bullish news for Comex gold today and yet price has barely budged. Why? Because all of the concern regarding The Trade War and this weekend's G-20 has kept the CNY in check and, thus, Comex gold, too.

We'll need to watch for a resolution of this trade war stuff in Q1 or sooner. Once that's behind us...and my hope is that Trump will be willing to negotiate given the weakening US economy...perhaps the pair will decouple and CDG will get back to trading more traditional drivers.

In other news...

The situation in Ukraine continues to grow more confusing and concerning. Here are a couple of links you should be sure to see:

This new post from SRSrocco is worth reviewing:

And yesterday's open interest numbers are in and total Comex gold OI fell by another 8,000 contracts. This brings the drop over the just the past three days to more than 67,000 contracts or about 13%. That's nearly 280 METRIC TONNES of digital gold obligations that have simply disappeared and closed out by The Banks.

Again, what SHAM this all is. Nowhere was any actual physical gold ever exchanged and thus valued/priced. Instead, trading of this make believe "gold exposure" is what determines the physical price, and this gold exposure can be created and destroyed through a few, simple keystrokes by the market-making Comex bullion banks! In yesterday's podcast, I forgot to include the link to the Econ 101 post that we wrote in 2017. Here it is again in case you need a refresher of how this all works and why it such a crime/sham/scam versus how other "markets" operate:

OK, so now it's time to stop and get this posted. The moving truck has arrived and MamaFerg needs me to supervise and assist. It's going to be a long day and it will likely be late evening before I can make it back to Turdfork. If I can get back early enough, then I'll attempt to record a quick podcast. If not, then this will be the only post of the day. Regardless, regular TFMR service will resume tomorrow...provided I don't end up hospitalized with back spasms!

Have a great day!


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


Nov 29, 2018 - 4:40pm



I recommend clearing your browser cache and cookies. See how to do so on the FAQ page under the "Why is the page wonky when I visit the site?" section:

Regarding comments, I'm assuming you missed the previous comments I wrote to you, and the comments TF and others have posted:

Nov 29, 2018 - 4:22pm



On the old site I could just click to the new comments since my last visit.

Now I have to scroll through everything every time to try and find where I was...

Am I missing something?

Nov 29, 2018 - 3:22pm



I'm just an(other) idiot with a macbook (OS10.14.1) using firefox (63.0.1), who can't play videos here when I click on them (they just disappear), and other inserted images show up as tiny broken link icon.

Nov 29, 2018 - 10:51am

Good thoughts on Irving

Good thoughts on Irving compared to other options. Who knows what the banks will do with metals but Irving has had a good run already this year where others have been caught up in the artificial suppression.

Tough call to decide which cookie to pull out of the jar. So many look tasty.

CC Horses
Nov 29, 2018 - 10:50am



November 15, Ernst & Young and other private firms that were hired to audit the Pentagon announced that they could not complete the job. Congress had ordered an independent audit of the Department of Defense, the government’s largest single cost center—the Pentagon receives two of every three federal tax dollars collected—after the Pentagon failed for decades to audit itself. The firms concluded, however, that the DoD’s financial records were riddled with so many bookkeeping deficiencies, irregularities, and errors that a reliable audit was simply impossible.

Please send more tax dollars. lol

Angry Chef
Nov 29, 2018 - 10:14am
Nov 29, 2018 - 8:50am

If anybody is sleepy, just

If anybody is sleepy, just listen to what I heard while walking our dog. We certainly are not rural, however do have marshy woods surrounding the various sub divisions.

Certainly got my adrenalin going.

Wild boar sounds
Nov 29, 2018 - 8:43am

Good morning, Katie Rose! 

Good morning, Katie Rose!

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Nov 29, 2018 - 7:34am

My last comment last night...

My last comment last night....and first comment this morning.....I'd like to add to Irving Resources, but the price keeps running away. ..So many small cup miners are so cheap, almost for free...How they managed to survive, have no idea.

Nov 29, 2018 - 12:28am

I think that the December

I think that the December rate hike is baked in...and one or two hikes next year should be good for gold, at this moment.....And the commercials are well positioned for that.

And the real driver of softer Powell stand is the slowing domestic and global economy (imo).

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

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9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
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7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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