More Trouble for Chief Goon Powell

Time is running out for CGP and his rate hike scheme.

Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 9:56am

We wrote two weeks ago about CGP painting himself into a corner. That corner got even tighter today and it will soon close, leaving him with zero remaining options.

It's coming at CGP from multiple directions today. First, Trump in all his glory, pounded away in an interview posted late yesterday. Click the link and see how Trump states that he's "very unhappy" with CGP and his Fed. Hilariously, he also states that he thought Mother was "too short" for the job!

But the economic news for CGP was just as bad today. The US economy is clearly slowing and the inflation boogeyman that he claims to be fighting is shrinking away. So, other than enriching his owner banks through higher rates, what justification does CGP have left for his rate hike scheme?

So can you see how this is all coming together for us in Q1 and all of 2019. Once we get through the December FOMC, it will become abundantly clear that The Fed will NOT be hiking four times next fact, they may not be able to do it more than once! As this reality sets in, Comex precious metal prices will turn and we'll be on course for a MUCH better year than 2018. Rates will tumble, not soar. The POSX will fall, not rise. And CB balance sheets will grow, not shrink.

But, again, don't expect this to all of a sudden manifest itself on Thursday. Turning the battleship of sentiment and expectation is going to come slowly. Even in 2016, when the first half of the the year saw gains of 30% in CDG and 50% in CDS, the event unfolded slowly at first. Price jumped out of the Dec15 FOMC and then ground higher through January. So we're likely going to need to remain patient and watch for dips to trade/buy.

Also complicating the matter is the persistent "peg" of CDG and the yuan. All of this potentially bullish news for Comex gold today and yet price has barely budged. Why? Because all of the concern regarding The Trade War and this weekend's G-20 has kept the CNY in check and, thus, Comex gold, too.

We'll need to watch for a resolution of this trade war stuff in Q1 or sooner. Once that's behind us...and my hope is that Trump will be willing to negotiate given the weakening US economy...perhaps the pair will decouple and CDG will get back to trading more traditional drivers.

In other news...

The situation in Ukraine continues to grow more confusing and concerning. Here are a couple of links you should be sure to see:

This new post from SRSrocco is worth reviewing:

And yesterday's open interest numbers are in and total Comex gold OI fell by another 8,000 contracts. This brings the drop over the just the past three days to more than 67,000 contracts or about 13%. That's nearly 280 METRIC TONNES of digital gold obligations that have simply disappeared and closed out by The Banks.

Again, what SHAM this all is. Nowhere was any actual physical gold ever exchanged and thus valued/priced. Instead, trading of this make believe "gold exposure" is what determines the physical price, and this gold exposure can be created and destroyed through a few, simple keystrokes by the market-making Comex bullion banks! In yesterday's podcast, I forgot to include the link to the Econ 101 post that we wrote in 2017. Here it is again in case you need a refresher of how this all works and why it such a crime/sham/scam versus how other "markets" operate:

OK, so now it's time to stop and get this posted. The moving truck has arrived and MamaFerg needs me to supervise and assist. It's going to be a long day and it will likely be late evening before I can make it back to Turdfork. If I can get back early enough, then I'll attempt to record a quick podcast. If not, then this will be the only post of the day. Regardless, regular TFMR service will resume tomorrow...provided I don't end up hospitalized with back spasms!

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 28, 2018 - 10:03am

Even more trouble for CGP:

Even more trouble for CGP:

Nov 28, 2018 - 10:04am

Thanks for the early morning

Thanks for the early morning post!

silver66 TF
Nov 28, 2018 - 10:26am

Turd a question, how is a 5%

Turd a question, how is a 5% drop an implosion?

I agree that rate hikes are nearing the top end of what the FED can do, however, I have been wrong so often on what I think the FED will do people should not listen to me.

It seems to me that ZH, which I read daily has gone full Doom Pron in their reporting


Nov 28, 2018 - 10:38am

Columbia SC Press Conference

Columbia SC Press Conference

Live, starts at 10:30

Edit: Wow looks at the depts. involved. Now that all the elections are finished, will the shit hit the fan?

EDIT EDIT, what a waste of time, just local nudes with the miliary. Why not go after the real shits!

Represented at the press conference will be members of the Naval Criminal Investigative Services (NCIS), U.S. Army Criminal Investigations Command (CID), Air Force Office of Special Investigations (AFOSI), Department of Defense Criminal Investigative Services (DCIS), Internal Revenue Service – Criminal Investigations (IRS-CI), United States Marshals Service (USMS), the South Carolina Department of Corrections (SCDC), the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division (SLED), and the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

Nov 28, 2018 - 10:51am

I don't think anyone thinks

I don't think anyone thinks that the fed will keep hiking interest rates four times next year. And remember, the more they can hike rates now, the more they can lower rates next.

The housing market is feeling the effects of mortgage rate hikes right now. We've been spoiled with low rates for so long. A 5% mortgage rate is almost twice what it was at its low, and take into account that the gubmint will be paying twice as much in interest on massive rising debt. We are doomed!

Just when do the PMs reclaim their historic flight to safety though?

Nov 28, 2018 - 11:32am

Meaningful or not?

Meaningful or not?

Gold & Silver Bullion: BANNED By Canada Post! What's Next?

Gold & Silver Bullion: BANNED By Canada Post! What's Next?

Nov 28, 2018 - 11:46am

@Libero...Just when do the

@Libero...Just when do the PMs reclaim their historic flight to safety though?

When Trump takes over and becomes a Fed chair.

Nov 28, 2018 - 11:59am

Will DOJ Finally Hold Bullion

Will DOJ Finally Hold Bullion Banks Accountable for Market Rigging?

The DOJ plays differently than the CFTC

Nov 28, 2018 - 12:00pm

Here is something to read by

Here is something to read by a great man to another. Too bad it will never make it to the second party.

Nov 28, 2018 - 12:10pm

ya'll dontcha understand ??!?

ya'll dontcha understand ??!?!

They need to raise the raise the rates so they can LOWER the rates...
makes 984% sense..!!

Herfy Derfy Big Macs and Cheese

Nov 28, 2018 - 12:10pm

...and dont forget the Cheese

...and dont forget the Cheese !!!
Clarki Stomias
Nov 28, 2018 - 12:44pm
Nov 28, 2018 - 12:58pm

Powel whisper means more to

Powell whisper means more to the financial markets than all the tension around the world....and he looks just like a nice, ordinary man.

Nov 28, 2018 - 1:12pm

As a pilot ( retired now) I

As a pilot ( retired now) I get operations bulletins occasionally and saw this recently. I don’t remember seeing PMs being specifically mentioned before. Things, they are changing!

UUZZ/Russia New rules are in effect for all passengers departing/arriving Russia or the countries of the Customs Union (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan). You must now declare to Customs if you are carrying any precious metals or stones - and if the total value is over 1 million Rubles (approx $15k USD) they will tax you at a rate of 30% for everything above that threshold. Local handlers advise passengers to carry with them some kind of pre-written confirmation of the value of whatever jewellery they are planning to travel with; as if Customs have any doubts, they may seize the jewellery and send away for valuation.

Nov 28, 2018 - 1:34pm

In my haste this morning, I

In my haste this morning, I forgot to mention that CGP was speaking at a luncheon today. Well, it's old news now but be sure to see this:

Angry Chef
Nov 28, 2018 - 1:34pm

US Military Says It Can’t

US Military Says It Can’t Take Out Remaining ISIS Fighters Because They’re Hiding In Tunnels

If the American Military can't get rid of ISIS. A proxy force that they created. Maybe they should get out of the way and let the Syrians, Russians, Iranians, Turkey, and soon to be Iraq Military take care of them for you.

Unless...maybe...this has something to do with it.

Angry Chef
Nov 28, 2018 - 1:42pm

The World Is At a Showdown

The World Is At a Showdown Moment — A New Paradigm vs. the Entire Geopolitical Apparatus in the West

Angry Chef
Nov 28, 2018 - 2:16pm
Angry Chef
Nov 28, 2018 - 2:19pm

Putin: "We Aren't Aiming To

Putin: "We Aren't Aiming To Ditch The Dollar, The Dollar Is Ditching Us" He does have a point.

Nov 28, 2018 - 2:26pm

I can't wait for for the

I can't wait for for the podcast so we can all hear Turd say "Boi-yoi-yoi-yoi​​​​​​​-yoing" ... if gold can hold these gains.

Angry Chef
Nov 28, 2018 - 2:43pm
Joseph Warren
Nov 28, 2018 - 2:56pm

People are Nuts

People are Nuts

(From an email by Tom Woods):

I thought arguing with SJWs was maddening and pointless.

I'd forgotten about what the so-called right wing can be like.

Last night David Stockman posted the following:

Here's a sample comment and my response:

Now look: I understand people who find Trump entertaining, who are creeped out by his Deep State opponents, who appreciate his occasional deviations from foreign-policy orthodoxy, his deregulation, etc.

But for heaven's sake, be reasonable: Trump is a pragmatist, not an anti-state ideologue. Is that even debatable?

And that's all Stockman is saying. He's saying that Bush, Obama, and Trump alike have a pro-state bias to their thought and economic policy. None has come close to cutting spending or getting a handle on the severe unfunded liabilities problem.

Trump didn't even campaign on those things, so it's not even that we're accusing him of breaking a promise. You can't break a promise you never made.

The rest of Stockman's point is that the real problem here is the Federal Reserve, which has hurt Americans of all classes. Who can argue with that?

Trump supporters, evidently.

The entire thread consists of people calling Stockman a "liberal" -- as if liberals criticize the Fed and demand sound money!

These folks don't even understand what they're supposed to believe.

Oh, Woods, go easy on them. Teach them!

I'm trying!

But I have zero sympathy for people who ignorantly denounce David Stockman -- who's 98% sound on economics and monetary policy in particular -- for being, of all things, a left-liberal!

His point is that Trump is a statist. He used that exact word. Now you may disagree with that description of Trump, but it obviously isn't something a liberal would say. To call Stockman a "liberal" (in the American sense, obviously) is as uncomprehending as it gets. He would be the first liberal ever to criticize Trump for favoring too much government.

Stockman criticizes "the state's central banking branch," and the MAGA folks in the comments can't come to the central bank's defense fast enough.

All right, all right, most of them know nothing about the central bank.

So maybe shutting up might not be a bad idea?

Shouldn't their instinct be that a government-established central bank with monopoly privileges is probably a bad idea?

Instead, a critic like Stockman gets lambasted as a "liberal" -- as if liberals are known for their criticisms, rather than instinctual defenses, of the Fed.

Here's more cancer, if you can take it:

On and on it goes. That's just a sample.

Thanks, conservative movement: this is the knowledge you've managed to convey to these people over the past 50 years.

Someone comes along and says spending needs to be slashed, the government's role in the economy needs to be radically diminished, and a lid needs to be put on the Fed, and all they can do is scream, "Socialist!"

This is intellectual malpractice.

A socialist favors the exact opposite of all these positions, as you already know.

A great antidote to the insanity: the folks in my private group -- some of whom helped me fight back in that cancerous thread.

I'll see you in there, and we'll Make the Fed our Enemy Again:

Tom Woods

Nov 28, 2018 - 2:58pm

ac, trump's latest

ac, trump's latest go..

what did it say please?

Libero Joseph Warren
Nov 28, 2018 - 3:06pm

Joseph warren:  At least we

Joseph warren: At least we can agree that David Stockman is a smart fellow, but being a responsible, balanced budget advocate is no longer possible. We have gone past the point of no return in our debt explosion, -that is why we? (I) invest in the PMs.

Angry Chef
Nov 28, 2018 - 3:27pm

Bolsheviks Tricked the

Bolsheviks Tricked the Russians 100 Years Ago - the Same People Are Bamboozling Americans Today

Nov 28, 2018 - 3:35pm
Nov 28, 2018 - 3:55pm

Amazing, I actually hat

Amazing, I actually hat tipped ( I mean star) Libero.

Katie Rose, I agree with Libero, take your full name off. Not that we can't trust Turdites, it is just better if you don't.

I have the Nest cameras at our home. Just be aware, they screw me by charging $200 per year to save 10 days worth of video. This can be saved and transferred to your computer, but it can't go direct and skip the $200.

Joseph Warren Libero
Nov 28, 2018 - 4:20pm

@Libero - we actually agree

@Libero - we actually agree on several points.

A miracle !

TF Metals fan
Nov 28, 2018 - 4:34pm

I Found A New Recession

I Found A New Recession Indicator That Says LOOK OUT BELOW

A new indicator from Mike Malloney ;-) This time based on corperate income tax. The waves correlate very nicely with recessions. And where are we now?

Nov 28, 2018 - 4:55pm

If only I had the ability to

If only I had the ability to make the worldwide exchange price of gold increase $10 in 10 minutes by sounding "dovish" at lunch.


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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
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TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
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