So after some beating down and looking at the chart, I still see very strong support in the $98 to $100 range. It only went lower briefly. What about the next month or so - where do people see crude going? Is anyone bearish or bullish at these prices?
First Energy Post - WTI
To know where Crude is going, simply look at Brent, it is a leader and unmanipulated. If it continues to hold or tread higher, then WTIC will follow.
Short Brent, Long WTI
If you are real bullish double up on the WTI or drop the Brent short.
I got short UCO just before the OPEC meeting last week, and my shit is sitting 90% worthless at the moment -- although I may be green by Friday?! $3.50 in 2 days all over again would do it.
Just curious as I am of the impression that the recent "softening" in WTI was tied to the feelings of impending doom in the S&P and the Dow, end of POMO, "austerity" coming, etc. No doubt the economy is in deep shit (thanks McDs for the jobs!), but while the fundamentals of Oil indicate higher prices (OPEC disintegration, weaker USD leads to higher Oil via inflation, MENA a disaster) it seems like the "market sentiment" has been driving this week.
So here's a thought experiment: is our conception of "the norm" for WTI and Brent premised on QEx? That is, if we're "not printing money anymore", is the real market value closer to 75 or something?
Alternatively, is this squeeze on Crude prices a result of the Mandat de Fearless Leader that oil speculators would be punished? Haven't we seen that before? Our foes have limitless capital -- something I forget from time to time. Maybe prices will jump again after OpEx?
I didn't even look at the Crude price this morning (shame on me) and it looks like the FED is getting what it wants. Big drops in Crude, small in equities. nearly 5% drop in oil today only 2 in stocks. Looks like 85 is the target? Anybody else have some thoughts?
You can't turn your back for 5 mins on this market. The EE is having its way with oil, I just hope PM don't follow the miners down ;)
Major breech today. Nothing but down from here.
Well if may be bad for the Longs but sounds good for those on Social Security limited income.