I've been stacking physical for awhile now but finally decided to step my game up and get into options trading. Executed my first trade today, bought a JPM Sept 40 Put and a SLV Oct 40 call in hopes of capitalizing on bleak economic news (credit Max Keiser for the suggestion). Over the summer with debt ceiling/QE2 ending as I'm sure there will be some spikes. Also I'm pretty sure Jim Rogers was refering to JPM when he said he was shorting a very large bank stock (has to be JPM or GS)
Anyone else buying SLV calls or shorting bank stocks?
from what I have seen/learned/concluded it appears the markets are rigged to a certain degree. It makes entering the casino and betting against the house a true contrarian play and I wish you all the best in your endeavors.
I am content to stack physical metals and to add to my nat gas position since my investment preference is to buy and hold for the long term.
This also has to do with my being new to investing and wanting to specialize before moving on to level 2 :)
I watched that interview w/ Jim Rogers & he never said which bank.
He just said... he didn't want to say, because he had a lot of friends that
worked there (which is why he claimed, he didn't want to say anything).
And... I kind of think he was referencing B of A.
And here's my rationale. If, the three arms of monetary policy are:
Fiscal Policy = Congress
Monetary Policy = Federal Reserve (utilizing JP Morgan)
U.S. Treasury = Interest Rates (utilizing Goldman Sachs)
So, if the fed & the treasury are in-fact attached @ the hip of
Sachs and JP Morgan, then... that would lead me to believe,
Jim Rogers may of been referencing B of A.
Especially knowing how many mortgage's are in foreclosure, etc.
or are right on the brink and are being pushed off/ deferred. So, my
opinion would be shorting B of A would produce more results, than JP Morgan.
(please click the cowboy hat, if you liked my post)
I don't think it can be BAC. He said "I'm shorting a large bank that hasn't fallen as much as the others," which in my mind has to be either Goldman Sachs or JPM. Bank of America was trading around 60 prior to 2007 and is hovering around 9-10 now, doesn't strike me as a bank that hasn't fallen as much as the others.
Now consider JPM, trading comfortably around 45-50 pre-2007 and not really much has changed, they were at 41 when I bought the puts. To me when I look at the charts of Citigroup, BAC, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, JPM, and Goldman, the only one still trading at their pre-2007 levels is JP Morgan.
@DonPaulo - Completely agree, markets are truely rigged in favor of certain banks so perhaps I'm throwing my money away. Sometime you have to take a shot in the dark. What's your play on Natural Gas I'm curious?
Any thoughts on shorting Wells Fargo? I am shorting WFC with OTM July Puts. However, the charts seem to be telling me this is one of the stronger banks. Maybe I should be shorting BAC or Citi instead. I think Citi has negative exposure to the Greek debt.