The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Beer with Turd - 2022 Begins


Since we failed to have our monthly cocktail party last week on New Year's Eve, let's celebrate the new year today with the January edition of BwT. This is your chance to kick back, relax, enjoy an adult beverage, interact with your fellow members and ask me anything you'd like.


Macrocast 2022: Reality Bites

Friday, January 7, 2022 - 12:11pm

Oh, boy. Here we go again. It's the start of a new year and that means it's time for another adventure in long term price forecasting. Around here we call it a "macrocast" because we figured out long ago that, in a world dominated by computers trading derivatives, if you can get the...

BLSBS Friday

Friday, January 7, 2022 - 10:16am

A lousy first week to 2022 finally ends today after the most recent BLSBS was released. And it's the same old BS...prompting discussions of a rate hike in March. Sometimes all you can do is laugh.

So what was the BS this time? The unemployment rate is now under 4.0%. But the gain of...

Thursday Conversation - 2021 into 2022 with Jim Willie

Thursday, January 6, 2022 - 3:00pm

As you know, it's tradition to have The Golden Jackass stop by in December to give us his thoughts on the year that was and the year to come. Internet connectivity issues precluded us from having this conversation last week but we finally got it done yesterday.

So here's a full hour of...

Metal Misery

Thursday, January 6, 2022 - 10:36am

Yesterday at this time, prices had fully recovered from Monday's beatings and it appeared that we might be able to escape the week. But then here came the doctored FOMC minutes and now we are right back into misery with our captors still holding us hostage.

On mornings like this, when...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, January 5

Wednesday, January 5, 2022 - 5:21pm

LOL. So now we're supposed to believe that The Fed stands ready to not only taper QE and hike the fed funds rate, they're going to start "aggressively" drawing down their balance sheet, too. Oh my goodness. Here they are...playing the same mind tricks that they played five years ago...and yet...

The Week Turns Around

Wednesday, January 5, 2022 - 10:42am

As we reminded you back on Monday, the year 2021 began with a rally that was reversed a few days later, setting the tone for a difficult year. The year 2022 began with a smash that has also now been reversed. Is this a good sign for the year ahead?

Well, I wouldn't go that far. However...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, January 4

Tuesday, January 4, 2022 - 5:29pm

It was an interesting day and I think you'll find this to be an interesting podcast. So come on in and have a listen as we have a number of things to discuss.

For today, a general discussion of inflation and a mention of these three links:

  • ...

A Better CoT Tuesday

Tuesday, January 4, 2022 - 10:39am

Tuesday begins with a bit of a rally, even though interest rates and the POSX are higher again today. The possibility remains that some of the data scheduled for later this week will provide the impetus for a recapture of yesterday's losses.

So here we are on a Tuesday and the Comex...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, January 3

Monday, January 3, 2022 - 5:22pm

It was a dreary way to start the new year but, in all honesty, it could have been worse. So let's watch to see what happens overnight and then try to build back some of what was lost today as we progress through the week.

For today, a recap of the day's events and an explanation of how...

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/17

1/18 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
1/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts/Permits
1/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed Manu Survey
1/21 10:00 ET LEIII


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