The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Friday, March 20

Friday, March 20, 2020 - 6:06pm

It was the worst week for the "stock market"since 2008. However, did you know that Comex Digital Gold was only down $14 on the week or less than 1%? And after the terrible beating of last week, most of the mining shares managed small gains. I figured I'd better tell you this because, of course...

Free Audio and Video

Friday, March 20, 2020 - 4:24pm

Since the entire world is basically on lockdown this weekend, I just thought I might consolidate this week's media and interviews into one handy thread.

If you've made all your preparations to "shelter in place" for a while, then you'll likely need something to keep your mind occupied...

Into Week End

For the Comex metals, the week ends better than it began.

Friday, March 20, 2020 - 11:06am

There's not a lot to say this morning so let's just update the charts and look for some levels to watch into the close.

First of all, don't forget that the coronavirus does not change the calendar so today brings the once-per-quarter "quadruple witching". Again, what is this?...

Thursday Conversation - David Morgan

Thursday, March 19, 2020 - 3:37pm

With Comex Digital Silver prices crashing to 12-year lows, I figured that it would be an excellent time to get David Morgan in for his perspective on the madness.

I hope you find this discussion helpful. Over the course of this call, I ask David to address:

  • the forces
  • ...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, March 19

Thursday, March 19, 2020 - 3:37pm

Just a brief recap of the day's events.

It was another crazy day. On the bright side, possible therapeutics for coronavirus victims are now being discovered. This gives us hope that doctors may soon be able to mitigate the mortality risk and manage the outbreak. On the downside, the...

Crashing Economies

Thursday, March 19, 2020 - 10:52am

This is hardly news but we should make note of it today, regardless. And it's not just the US, Europe, Canada and the rest. The damage being wrought upon the emerging markets due to the ongoing, incredible spike in the US$ will be long-term and impactful, as well.

Here's are ZH links...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, March 18

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 - 4:57pm

Just another day of extreme volatility where I've begun to feel like the proverbial frog in the pot.

For today, a general discussion of the steps we should all be continuing to take in preparation for the weeks ahead and then a discussion of the eye-melting moves in some of the global...

Gonna Need A Bigger Boat

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 - 11:07am

For the past couple of weeks, we've discussed how the coming "fiscal and monetary stimulus" is going to be the largest ever seen...and far larger than any of the ideas currently being floated. Therefore, you should continue to ignore the COMEX prices. Those current paper prices only matter if...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, March 17

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 - 5:37pm

Comex gold and the mining shares continued to bounce back today after Trump and his staff announced the pending airdrop of true "helicopter money" for the masses. And if you think today's rally on this news was exciting, wait until sanity and rational thought return in a few weeks. You ain't...

The Deepening Crisis

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 - 10:59am

As the global coronavirus siege worsens, the economic toll also worsens by the day. And though there may be some slivers of good news on the public health front, the damage to the global economy may be severe and permanent.

Clearly, we've all seen the wild equity and bond market...

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/24

2/25 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/26 10:00 ET New home sales
2/27 8:30 ET Q4 GDP second guess
2/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
2/27 11:30 ET Goon Evans speech
2/28 8:30 ET Pers Income and Spending
2/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
2/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/10

2/11 10:00 ET Job Openings
2/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
2/12 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
2/13 8:30 ET CPI
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
2/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/3

2/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/5 8:15 ET ADP Employment
2/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
2/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod


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