The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 8

Friday, January 8, 2021 - 2:18pm
23

As discussed earlier this week, there won't be the usual podcast today. Instead, this week we've been collecting your questions for this special Q&A session and your weekly summary podcast will be recorded tomorrow, instead.

Over the course of the week, thirty of you sent in...

Just Another Deliberate Smash

Friday, January 8, 2021 - 10:35am
By
24

As we've seen a several times over the past few months, prices were suddenly and brutally smashed in London today and that set the stage for a down open on Comex and a further smash this morning in the U.S. It's always disheartening to see these smashes and today is no different.

We...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, January 7

Thursday, January 7, 2021 - 5:18pm
16

The end of the week draws near and the only thing standing in the way of a green finish is the market reaction to tomorrow's BLSBS. So come on in and have a listen and let's get ready to wrap up the first week of 2021.

For today, a general discussion that includes references to these...

2021: A Gold Odyssey

Please read and consider our 2021 macrocast.

Thursday, January 7, 2021 - 12:11pm
By
37

Well, here we go again. It's January so that means it's annual forecast time...that time of year when I walk the plank knowing full well that I may end up plunging into the sea. And for what reason? I'm not sure. The screenshot below is taken from the opening paragraph of our 2020 macrocast and...

Bond Market Bumps

Thursday, January 7, 2021 - 10:54am
By
12

The crazy week continues with bonds continuing to sell off and today brings a rally in the POSX, too. On the bright side, however, the Comex metals are hanging in there...at least so far.

With the madness of yesterday behind us, perhaps there is some clear thinking returning today. At...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, January 6

Wednesday, January 6, 2021 - 5:53pm
21

Oh my gosh. In what was one of the craziest days in recent memory...and that's saying something!...the Comex metals managed to stage a rebound with many of the mining shares actually posting gains on the day. What, if anything, does that signal for tomorrow? You'd better come on in and give...

Pity Poor Powell

Wednesday, January 6, 2021 - 10:50am
By
22

If there's one guy who definitely NOT excited about the results of the election yesterday, it's Chief Goon Powell. That poor bastard has really got his work cut out for him in the weeks and months ahead.

What do I mean? Have you seen the yield on the 10-year treasury note today,...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, January 5

Tuesday, January 5, 2021 - 5:48pm
20

The day featured some nice follow-on price action to the big rallies of Monday. However, now it gets interesting as we await the election results from Georgia and watch for the impact on the POSX, the bond market and then, by extension, the Comex precious metals.

So today's general...

A Day of Consequence

Tuesday, January 5, 2021 - 10:06am
By
18

There will be an election in the U.S. state of Georgia today and the outcome will determine whether or not the D-republocrats will control both chambers of the U.S. Congress for the next two years. To say that the outcome might have an impact in the precious metals is an understatement....

TFMR Podcast - Monday, January 4

Monday, January 4, 2021 - 6:00pm
23

2021 begins on a major UPtick. However, it's going to be long, volatile and unpredictable week so please be sure to listen to today's podcast.

There's so much to cover today that we dispense with the news and links to review. Instead, just a lengthy discussion of the day that was and...

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
1/20 12:00 ET POTUS Inauguration
1/21 ECB meeting and rate decision
1/21 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
1/22 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 1/11

1/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
1/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
1/13 8:30 ET CPI
1/13 1:00 ET Goon Brainard speech
1/13 2:00 ET Beige Book
1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/4

1/4 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
1/4 10:00 ET Construction Spending
1/5 Georgia U.S. Senate election
1/5 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
1/6 US election certification
1/6 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
1/6 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
1/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/8 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
12/22 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/22 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
12/23 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/23 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
12/23 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/14

12/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/15 8:30 ET Empire State Index
12/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/16 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
12/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/18 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
12/18 10:00 ET LEIII

Key Economic Events Week of 12/7

12/8 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
12/9 10:00 ET JOLTS jop openings
12/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
12/10 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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