The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

On with Reluctant Preppers

Please listen to the FREE and timely audio.

Wednesday, August 7, 2019 - 10:22pm

Early Wednesday evening, I had the opportunity to visit again with my old friend, Dunagan Kaiser, of Reluctant Preppers. Given the timely nature of the discussion, I'm grateful to Dunagan for his quick turnaround in getting the video posted.

Over the course of this interview, Dunagan...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, August 7

Wednesday, August 7, 2019 - 5:30pm

What a wild Wednesday as Comex Digital Silver posts its largest one day gain in over four years. Will it be enough to cement a breakout through 17? And what should we expect this evening and overnight? We have some answers so come on in and have a listen.

A lengthy general discussion...

Comex Gold Surges Past $1500

And/but the week is only half over.

Wednesday, August 7, 2019 - 11:04am

It was a crazy overnight and the madness has extended into the US trading day. Comex precious metal prices are soaring so we need to take time to assess where we are and what to watch for in the hours and days ahead.

Today's action actually began last evening when the PBOC set their...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, August 6

Tuesday, August 6, 2019 - 4:38pm

Comex Digital Gold showed remarkable strength again today and now appears set for a direct challenge of the first major resistance level at $1485. Will it smash through and, when it does, what will be the next target?

For today, we first discuss these four links:

  • ...

Surprisingly Stable

Though a turbulent week continues.

Tuesday, August 6, 2019 - 10:57am

Given the rally in stocks and POSX, some selling in bonds and the fact that price is near significant resistance, it's quite interesting that prices are stable this morning.

Seriously. Check some of these moves:

  • The USDCNH has plunged by over 1% from 7.13 to 7.05...this
  • ...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, August 5

Monday, August 5, 2019 - 3:22pm

Not enough time for a full podcast summary and review today so just this quick podcast to discuss the day's events and then look ahead to where things may head from here.

Today is a general discussion regarding what has transpired and then a review of these seven charts:...

USDCNH Surges Through Seven

How important is 7:1? We're about to find out...

Monday, August 5, 2019 - 11:18am

For the past several years, we've watched the dollar-yuan exchange rate with keen interest, often wondering if gold was directly correlated or simply moving with it in tandem. Often, though, the discussion turned to the potential significance and market impact of a move through seven yuan per...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, August 2

Friday, August 2, 2019 - 6:49pm

It was a great week with Comex gold posting its highest weekly close since May of 2013! And more gains look likely in the days ahead som come on in and have a listen to your Friday podcast, chart and CoT review.

Not much time to mess around today so, after a general discussion of the...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, August 1

Thursday, August 1, 2019 - 3:45pm

Our Summer Sabbatical is interrupted by all of the news and events of the past 24 hours. Please take time to listen to this podcast, consider all that you've seen and then prepare for another BLSBS Friday.

Please be sure to read these two links from ZH:

  • ...

A Few Post-FOMC Thoughts

2010+9 proceeds along.

Thursday, August 1, 2019 - 11:38am

As hard as it was to watch "the market" reaction yesterday, there really wasn't much actual news that we didn't anticipate. And now today is playing out as expected, as well.

First of all, here's a comment I added to the Wednesday podcast case you missed it....

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories


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Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 2 hours 17 min ago
by sierra skier, Aug 17, 2019 - 7:14pm
by sierra skier, Aug 17, 2019 - 8:30am
by Boggs, Aug 16, 2019 - 7:46pm