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Thursday Conversation - Rob Kirby

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Our old pal Rob Kirby is back on his feet and ready to take on 2020. The year is off to a wild start and it's only going to get more crazy as things progress so please be sure to give this podcast a thorough listen this weekend.

To deal with the ongoing madness, you need as many trustworthy and objective sources of information as possible. You'll be able to find this at Kirby Analytics and I encourage you to check out all that Rob provides through his service: https://www.kirbyanalytics.com

As usual with these Thursday Conversations, we try to limit the discussion to three primary points. For this week, I ask Rob to address:

  • the changes since we last spoke in August, specifically the REPO & Liquidity Crisis
  • how The Fed will respond to growing economic and monetary pressures in 2020
  • the reports of $21T in unaccounted U.S. government spending over the past two decades

But, as usual, this conversation is not limited to just the points above. So please be sure to carve out some time this weekend in order to give it a listen.

Thanks again to Rob for sharing his time and insights!

TF

  155 Comments

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Noteriety
Feb 3, 2020 - 1:14am

zman

First, there is inflation. Perhaps you have not experienced it, but I have.

Second, the 21 Trillion has huge implications. As you admit, they are planning to cut social programs. Catherine Austin Fitts repeatedly states that we should go: 'What are you talking about we need to cut? Give us the 21 Trillion back and we have plenty of money."

So pessimistic...

streber
Feb 2, 2020 - 11:46pm
streber
Feb 2, 2020 - 11:39pm

Au reports on ChiCom Chicken Virus

news.com.au

February 3, 2020 6:32am

China has detected an outbreak of bird flu near the epicentre of the deadly coronavirus.

The bird flu outbreak was reported Saturday in Hunan, which borders the province of Hubei where the coronavirus broke out in December.

“The outbreak occurred in a farm in the Shuangqing district of Shaoyang city,” officials from China’s Ministry of Agriculture said. “The farm has 7850 chickens, and 4500 of the chickens have died from the contagion.”

The fatal illness, known as H5N1 virus, causes “a highly infectious, severe respiratory disease in birds,” according to the World Health Organisation.

The Chinese government said it culled 17,828 chickens as a result of the H5N1 outbreak, according to Reuters.

https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/world/china-detects-outbreak-o...

Blackwatersailor
Feb 2, 2020 - 11:04pm

Mr Martenson

Coronavirus Continues Spreading Fast -- How Bad Will It Get?
happycamper515
Feb 2, 2020 - 10:57pm

Hunt Bros.

I this the same Hunt Bros. that tried to corner the silver market

Bard the Bowman
Feb 2, 2020 - 10:27pm

Congrats Chiefs!

Craig must be stoked! So great when the Hunt brothers come into view, this time little bro Lamar!

AGXIIK
Feb 2, 2020 - 10:25pm

KC wins

On 0202 2020

Blackwatersailordryam
Feb 2, 2020 - 10:21pm

Huh

Did I say it counted as a study? Why are you putting words in my mouth bud. Just reporting whats posted.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Gasivs ButtoxJoseph Warren
Feb 2, 2020 - 8:54pm

That's it! Paul Craig Roberts is on the right track

In his final paragraph referencing the dark forces in the US he writes "This extraordinary arrogance is easily capable of using a false flag engineered pathogen to produce turmoil within a country that collapses a government".

Exactly! This novel virus could very easily be an act of war perpetrated by the CIA. We'll never know.

ps. If the CIA is responsible, it was a hell of plan with super execution and follow-through.

zman
Feb 2, 2020 - 8:44pm

"Inflation is the increase in

"Inflation is the increase in money supply" I'm sorry you think this is true, but it isn't. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/111/inflation/money-supply-inflation/

Increasing the money supply does nothing if the real economy remains in recession. You need to see strong credit growth in the real economy, we don't have that anymore. You also need to see the velocity of money move higher, today the velocity of money continues to move even lower. We have massive wealth and income inequality today, that's why the money supply makes no difference at all. The peasants are loaded with debt and weak wages, that's all very deflationary.

We have the commodity indexes barely above the 2016 low and we are close to new all time lows on yields on the long end. That isn't manipulation, it's reflecting the real economy.

All I can say is that many are going to be very disappointed when the Fed starts buying trillions of debt in the years ahead and there's still no inflation. Do you know what's inflationary? A big change in Fiscal and Tax policy, but that's NEVER going to happen.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
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8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
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8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
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8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
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7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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