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Thursday Conversation - Rob Kirby


Our old pal Rob Kirby is back on his feet and ready to take on 2020. The year is off to a wild start and it's only going to get more crazy as things progress so please be sure to give this podcast a thorough listen this weekend.

To deal with the ongoing madness, you need as many trustworthy and objective sources of information as possible. You'll be able to find this at Kirby Analytics and I encourage you to check out all that Rob provides through his service: https://www.kirbyanalytics.com

As usual with these Thursday Conversations, we try to limit the discussion to three primary points. For this week, I ask Rob to address:

  • the changes since we last spoke in August, specifically the REPO & Liquidity Crisis
  • how The Fed will respond to growing economic and monetary pressures in 2020
  • the reports of $21T in unaccounted U.S. government spending over the past two decades

But, as usual, this conversation is not limited to just the points above. So please be sure to carve out some time this weekend in order to give it a listen.

Thanks again to Rob for sharing his time and insights!



Feb 3, 2020 - 1:14am


First, there is inflation. Perhaps you have not experienced it, but I have.

Second, the 21 Trillion has huge implications. As you admit, they are planning to cut social programs. Catherine Austin Fitts repeatedly states that we should go: 'What are you talking about we need to cut? Give us the 21 Trillion back and we have plenty of money."

So pessimistic...

Feb 2, 2020 - 11:46pm
Feb 2, 2020 - 11:39pm

Au reports on ChiCom Chicken Virus


February 3, 2020 6:32am

China has detected an outbreak of bird flu near the epicentre of the deadly coronavirus.

The bird flu outbreak was reported Saturday in Hunan, which borders the province of Hubei where the coronavirus broke out in December.

“The outbreak occurred in a farm in the Shuangqing district of Shaoyang city,” officials from China’s Ministry of Agriculture said. “The farm has 7850 chickens, and 4500 of the chickens have died from the contagion.”

The fatal illness, known as H5N1 virus, causes “a highly infectious, severe respiratory disease in birds,” according to the World Health Organisation.

The Chinese government said it culled 17,828 chickens as a result of the H5N1 outbreak, according to Reuters.


Feb 2, 2020 - 11:04pm

Mr Martenson

Coronavirus Continues Spreading Fast -- How Bad Will It Get?
Feb 2, 2020 - 10:57pm

Hunt Bros.

I this the same Hunt Bros. that tried to corner the silver market

Bard the Bowman
Feb 2, 2020 - 10:27pm

Congrats Chiefs!

Craig must be stoked! So great when the Hunt brothers come into view, this time little bro Lamar!

Feb 2, 2020 - 10:25pm

KC wins

On 0202 2020

Feb 2, 2020 - 10:21pm


Did I say it counted as a study? Why are you putting words in my mouth bud. Just reporting whats posted.

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Gasivs ButtoxJoseph Warren
Feb 2, 2020 - 8:54pm

That's it! Paul Craig Roberts is on the right track

In his final paragraph referencing the dark forces in the US he writes "This extraordinary arrogance is easily capable of using a false flag engineered pathogen to produce turmoil within a country that collapses a government".

Exactly! This novel virus could very easily be an act of war perpetrated by the CIA. We'll never know.

ps. If the CIA is responsible, it was a hell of plan with super execution and follow-through.

Feb 2, 2020 - 8:44pm

"Inflation is the increase in

"Inflation is the increase in money supply" I'm sorry you think this is true, but it isn't. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/111/inflation/money-supply-inflation/

Increasing the money supply does nothing if the real economy remains in recession. You need to see strong credit growth in the real economy, we don't have that anymore. You also need to see the velocity of money move higher, today the velocity of money continues to move even lower. We have massive wealth and income inequality today, that's why the money supply makes no difference at all. The peasants are loaded with debt and weak wages, that's all very deflationary.

We have the commodity indexes barely above the 2016 low and we are close to new all time lows on yields on the long end. That isn't manipulation, it's reflecting the real economy.

All I can say is that many are going to be very disappointed when the Fed starts buying trillions of debt in the years ahead and there's still no inflation. Do you know what's inflationary? A big change in Fiscal and Tax policy, but that's NEVER going to happen.

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Key Economic Events Week of 3/1

3/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 1:00 ET Goon Brainard
3/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
3/3 12:00 ET Goon Bostic
3/3 2:00 ET Goon Evans
3/4 8:30 ET Unit Labor Costs
3/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/4 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell
3/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 2/22

2/22 10:00 ET LEIII
2/23 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/23 10:00 ET CGP at US Senate
2/24 10:00 ET CGP at US House
2/24 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
2/25 8:30 ET Jobless claims
2/25 8:30 ET Durable goods
2/25 10:30 ET Goon Bullard
2/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
2/26 8:30 ET Core inflation
2/26 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/26 10:00 ET UMich sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/15

2/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/17 8:30 ET PPI
2/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
2/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
2/17 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/18 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/18 8:30 ET Import price index
2/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/19 9:45 ET Markit Feb flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/8

2/8 12:00 ET Goon Mester speech
2/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
2/10 8:30 ET CPI
2/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
2/10 2:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
2/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/1

2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
2/3 8:15 ET ADP employment report
2/3 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
2/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
2/4 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/4 10:00 ET Factory orders
2/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 1/25

1/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/26 1:30 ET Comex option expiration
1/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/27 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
1/27 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
1/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
1/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
1/20 12:00 ET POTUS Inauguration
1/21 ECB meeting and rate decision
1/21 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
1/22 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 1/11

1/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
1/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
1/13 8:30 ET CPI
1/13 1:00 ET Goon Brainard speech
1/13 2:00 ET Beige Book
1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/4

1/4 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
1/4 10:00 ET Construction Spending
1/5 Georgia U.S. Senate election
1/5 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
1/6 US election certification
1/6 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
1/6 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
1/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/8 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
12/22 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/22 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
12/23 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/23 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
12/23 8:30 ET Core Inflation

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