Catching Up With Ned Naylor-Leyland

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On Wednesday, we had a chance to get caught up with our old pal, Ned Naylor-Leyland of Old Mutual Investors in London. Ned's job as fund manager puts him in front of institutional investors worldwide so it's always extraordinarily valuable to hear from him directly.

Over the course of this 40-minute call, Ned and I discuss a variety of topics, including:

  • overall sentiment in the precious metals sector
  • the growing interest in the sector from asset allocators and money managers
  • any sign or signal in London of a pending crisis of confidence in the LBMA system
  • how the level of real interest rates affects asset allocation decisions
  • the technical picture in the metals and why it appears that a new bull market is underway
  • and much, much more!

It was great fun to connect again with Ned as we've both been quite busy lately. I think you'll find this call to be very informative and well worth the wait. We promise to speak again soon on these subjects.

TF

p.s. My apologies for the audio quality as Ned and I were plagued by some Skype issues through the call.


35 Comments

Danforth Coxwell's picture

#1

yea!

Markedtofuture's picture

2nd

Edit: 2nd

North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile Which Passes Over Japan

Just under three weeks after its last ballistic missile launch, North Korea fired another missile on Friday morning eastward from Pyongyang, which flew over Japan just after 7am local time.

Ned Braden's picture

In Honor of Ned's Appearance.......

Time for yet another Pining Classic !

EDIT: For any newbies..Ned is on the far-right. Craig on far left. Not sure who, exactly is in the center....

Danforth Coxwell's picture

Zerohege

has put up an article that North Korea has launched yet another rocket over Japan. This might account for a sudden rise in the price of DCG.

Given the amount of back and forth between Russia, China etc. this cannot be a good thing! So sad.

Turd Ferguson's picture

From this morning's post

MODERATOR

chocolatechiphorses's picture

Harvey - Irma - and - Knox

Knox (Fort): Officially Fort Knox in Kentucky holds 147 million ounces of gold. PRETEND that official story is true, the gold is physically there, unencumbered, not leased out, and not stolen. The 147 million ounces of gold are worth $200 billion dollars – about the losses from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. That shows how low gold is valued at current prices.

In less than 30 days two hurricanes cost about one Fort Knox Gold Unit – the value of the gold supposedly stored there. There has been no independent audit since the 1950s.

The INCREASE in U.S. national debt – before hurricanes and a Korean War effort – will be around one $ trillion for this year. That is equivalent to five Fort Knox Gold Units for only this year. We spent many other Fort Knox Gold Units every year for decades. The total national debt at $20 trillion is about 100 Fort Knox Gold Units.

https://deviantinvestor.com/9246/harvey-irma-jeopardy-and-knox/

Noteriety's picture

The Above Article by AE

Is why I've taken all coins off the exchanges during this clear offensive by TPTB against the Bit-Con. It also helps to explain why I believe in the technology. It is becoming increasingly clear that FIAT and the entities that perpetuate the system hate Bit-Con.

(I will no longer say Crypto, only Bit-Con - Maybe it is part of a give/take that can lessen the friction on TFMR)

Fred Hayek's picture

AE, there's some serious BS in that story

The video says that North Korea's hacking teams have been linked to serious events including the 2014 Sony hack.

What the F***!?!

That was a ridiculous Obonzo administration pushed angle which EVERYONE now knows is false.  It was a disgruntled former Sony employee.  But that stupid ass article has the nerve to cite it as though the bizarre initial story pushed by Obonzo was shown to be a complete fabrication!

happycamper515's picture

Cyber warfare to take out Nork missiles

This article reminds me of the model rockets I used to fly as a kid when my dad would take me to the park and we loaded a powdered rocket engine into a home made model rocket then pushed a button to launch it into the sky.  Norks would be forced to hard wire missiles and Dough Boy sitting next to the launch pad with a long cable and button to push LOL.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/18/asia/cyber-missile-defense-north-korea/index.html

Mickey's picture

Chocolate Chip

Lets say China wants to trade in the perhaps 4 trillion dollars its stuck with, err holding.

They expect gold or yuan. If we need to buy yuan we have no choice but to use gold, or just send them the gold.

But our 8300 tons (yada yada) currently worth 375 billion give or take would need to be valued at 11 times higher, but then we screw ourselves and everybody else as we are out of gold.

In that situation the Yuan accelerates to upside and the Eagle "shits". Regardless of how you deal the cards we are holding we are in trouble.

Gold has to get to ~75k just to pay off debt, and we know there is much more out there, including the never discussed $3.5 trillion of unfunded amounts due Federal Workers pensions.

I do not have a clue how much things wil cost with gold over 100k, but I know we will be in better shape than most of the US, ya know, the ones that roll their eyes at us.

Danforth Coxwell's picture

Just some crazy talk about North Korea,,,,,,

The rocket launch that took place earlier today, was to be expected. The recently placed sanctions on Korea are just a bunch of bluster. The U.S. had to do something but they are unable to do anything that is meaningful. Here is why.....

(1) North Korea has a large "Black Export Economy". That is to say, the country produces "two goods" that most governments would consider to be illegal to export abroad. These are fake U.S.$100.00 bills and shall we say, non prescription recreational drug...and I don't mean weed. These two products have contributed to the purse of North Korea. The proceeds of the sale of the aforementioned goods have been used to purchase gold. In turn this gold has been used by the North Koreans to purchase arms, oil etc. Red China has been the middle man and the supplier of arms . Iran has been the supplier of oil. Oil is then transferred to North Korea via a pipeline from China. As a note, Iran has a long history of cooperating with North Korea in the development of nuclear weapons! Iran has a long history of selling oil for gold.

(2) Todays rocket launch was slated to occur Friday/Saturday. When the launch did not take place, many observers took a deep breath. No doubt feeling that LIl Kim got the message and backed down. Todays launch should come as no surprise. The launch was delayed by the CME that were experienced late last week. (I think Craig did an excellent job keeping us up to date by posting articles on the subject) Reports that I have read, indicate that the North Koreans were afraid that the solar flares might affect with the guidance system of the rocket, with the end result of a test failure. The optics would not be good if that were to occur, and the rocket landed in Japan!

Just a thank you for having Ned on the show today. As a note, Ned's reporting on the business of gold has always been honest  and straight forward. Something that I like. I know he is a busy guy, but I would like to see him as a featured guest more often.

Thanks again Craig. Keep up the good worksmiley

abundance's picture

Joseph Farrell 9/14..he reviews Russia and

Saudi Arabia and what they are doing..the Silk Rd and Israel

14 min...quite interesting

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Always a great privilege to hear from NNL, staunch PM advocate

This will Ned when gold and silver finally fly:

happycamper515's picture

PMs could be red shortly

The criminals hard at work trying to turn the latest Nork missile into a gesture of world peace and prosperity.  

happycamper515's picture

$/Y headed to 111

Because the world is in a better place after Nork fired a missile. If that missile actually hit something Dow would probably spike up 10 percent. 

On a serious note the Bengals need to get rid of Andy Dalton he is horrible. 

happycamper515's picture

$/Y blast off

111.20

lolWotEvA's picture

$/Y pop nothing compared to

cable, £/$ is up 4 cents since this time yesterday, allegedly because Carney ("hockey puck to the head", as Max calls him)

was slightly more hawkish yesterday!!! Nothing actually has changed, but Lol, what eva!

Blythesshrink's picture

Yes - here in the UK gold in

Yes - here in the UK, gold in sterling ain't great today! 

I think we are stuck (in terms of a new rally) until the Fed meeting is out of the way and options expiration - so that means until early Oct. We've seen the Yen sell off along with Gold approximately every 2 months so far this year, so perhaps this is official BOJ intervention at scheduled periods to drop their currency - and then all the HFTs pile in. 

Implied lease rates have indicated for the last week that the paper price had got ahead of the physical market - so will be interesting to see what gold price causes those lease rates to start rising again - should be in the 1300-1320 range from what I took from Maguire's last interview - so will be interesting to see if that plays out or not.

Save cash for now and buy in Oct - or are we just going to sell of like recent years all the way into Dec  - hope not and if Maguire is at all right, then that shouldn't even be possible - especially with the dollar under strain. Couple that with Craig and Ned's thoughts too and Oct would seem like a good buy time. 

lolWotEvA's picture

I'm tempted to hold on,,,

GBP looks to be rallying beyond any reasonable support, so could dive bigly when it runs out of technical buying, short covering or what eva else is causing this crazy rally. I would appreciate Craig's thoughts if he has time to take a look at cable. 

matt_'s picture

Bitcoin price support levels

From the charts, it looks like support at ~$4300 and ~$3300 have been decisively broken.  The next test level is ~$2700, then ~$2500, and then ~$2000. 

I'd expect the current decline to stop, and least temporarily, around $2500, based on my PhD degree in technical analysis that I bestowed upon myself. smiley

If $2000 is broken, there is a real risk of a return to prices below $1000.

My advice to anyone buying and selling Bitcoin: It is better to take a small loss than a big loss.  It is better to look at the price direction and act on it (even when it is moving lower) than to stubbornly hold onto only a long position come hell or high water.  It is not a good idea to try and catch the falling knife.  I learned all these things by losing a lot of my life savings buying and holding stock in gold miners.

If I were into Bitcoin, I'd look at a price trend indicator like TRIX and listen to what the indicator is telling me.  Anybody who did that with the GDX or SPY would have missed the worst of the market crashes.  Yes, you would have to accept some losses, but a small loss is better than a big loss.  That is my free advice.  Take it for what it is worth.

simjojim's picture

Global Instability

Turd Ferguson's picture

Eric's back this week

MODERATOR
scoremore's picture

-.2% retail sales? Negative?

POSX took a beating too.

Poundwize's picture

Options Expiration Today

May explain the weird correlations we see today

canary's picture

I feel like Optin Exparation comes every Friday...

And every Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday...when the COT is loaded.

canary's picture

3 out of 4 economic data disappointed this morning...

Besides Harvey....And they keep pushing stocks up and gold down...Maybe I'm not smart enough...finished only three grades in Siberia.

lakedweller2's picture

@Canary

Three grades in Siberia: BA, MBA and PhD?

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