Talking Gold with Andrew Maguire

58

The dollar is sinking like a stone. Paper gold and silver are rallying and above their major moving averages. Physical metal demand continues to accelerate worldwide. What a perfect time to get an update from our friend, Andrew Maguire.

This was recorded Friday morning US time, between 11:00 amd and 11:30 am EDT, so it's about as current as you can get. Over the course of this discussion, Andy addresses:

  • the changes to the London Fix process
  • unallocated London gold still affects price but the coming Allocated Bullion Exchange will have a significant impact
  • how London is still able to settle physical trades and the news this morning that England showed a net export to Switzerland of nearly 100 metric tonnes for the month of March
  • in the absence of published GOFO, how Andy computes tightness and/or backwardation in the gold market
  • his current price targets and projected resistance levels

I think you'll find this podcast to be great fun and quite informative. Today's action in the metals and the dollar sets us up for a very interesting end of the month. This "interview" could not have come at a more opportune time.

TF

www.tfmetalsreport.com/freetrial

  58 Comments

texmex66 · May 15, 2015 - 12:12pm

First

1

CPE · May 15, 2015 - 12:15pm

Excellent

Thanks Turd and Andy!

philly · May 15, 2015 - 12:18pm

Another THURD!

Two THURDs in two days! At least my timing for checking out Turd posts is good! Now if I can only turn that into something useful!! TGIF Turdville!

wildstylechef · May 15, 2015 - 12:25pm

4th

and yes!

Blythesshrink · May 15, 2015 - 12:26pm

Fantastic - that's why I love

Fantastic - that's why I love this place. :-) 

· May 15, 2015 - 12:35pm

The "Nemesis Line"

Since May 2013, The Banks have worked diligently to maintain this downtrend in order to suppress price and sentiment.

AJwhiteshirt · May 15, 2015 - 1:06pm

Nice surprise interview..

Great on the fly surprise for us all. Thanks. Really feeling the optimism on Andy's side regarding ABX. Did they post a new start date yet? 

SS121 · May 15, 2015 - 1:09pm

unedited notes from AM chat

andrew maguire podcast
tf- intro
conversation with andrew, known throughout metals world
am- thanks always good to be with you
tf- how are things going over there? they've tried to make fixes more transparent, its still unallocated how does it work
am- lets start with the fix and work backwards, nothing has changed. farce is same dress in different dance, lbma is irked by being forced to show bids, lbma still controls venue but buyers have advantage. the offers almost always exceed bid by 2,3, 5 times. so they just pluck this out of the air. the guy just picks the number under the price if they want, we call it fix paintin as most know. it's about the 7 bullion banks and the chairman. the daily production is sold at market so they just put a number in at market and use weight to push market lower. bullion banks are capping derivative positions, thats what's going on in a general way, the producers have no input to the number picked.
... how come they don't just keep bidding? there no need to chase prices, people forget that massive volume occurs off london.
this price is ok for aggregating bids if you're a jeweler but your not going to get size at this price. that's why people are saying "why not just pay fix" but the difference would be big relative to what is cleared, esp relative to derivatives.

last time we spoke, went through jeff christian cpm explanation, how leverage is involoved collateraling forwards is acceptable but not at 100 times.

i know you wanted to talk about the new exchange, but this info is why it is going to have such an impact on this whole london fixing process.
these off loco transactions are going to channel through abx and is going to reflect the real price sort for physical in all 11 global hubs
producers will offer production, remove liquidity from lbma, small dealers can bid..
orders are already streamed to a central limit order book
all people get the same data.
no matter what size you're after you can find somebody who can provide it. ensures transparency and fairness
tom eloquently explained that existing exchange accesses wholesale market directly, people already want us to trade for them, this will break the grip on the cartel. ...this procedure that is underway now and working is going to plug into the coming abx and add further liquidity
to this lbma 
people say "where the hell is it"
per tom there are really good reasons to delay its coming. i wish i could share latest big news, i have a seat on abx. going to be a comex breaker, this merry-go-round will end.
tf- all are excited for this, timing couldn't be better. there's been a downtrend since 2013 w/ the banks keeping it down to control sentiment and demand.
koos tweeted 99 metric ton export. lbma just moves within where is 99 metric tons coming from.
ken said the vaults were empty, where is switzerland getting the real gold.

am- thats about 5 tons a day. have to remember, related to forward contracts... related to derivatives one thing and another. massive dilution, 100 tons cleared every day. bottom line, one thing can be drawn... when they turn up for delivery it has to come from somewhere. the bank of england flywheels, we know the central bank loans into market. simple word 'rehypothecated bullion' insiders say it's normal business. but this demand wasn't anticipated. central banks aren't lending real gold into market. so it falls on bullion banks, so people get cash settled on unallocated bullion with a keystroke but it's just digital. so you bail out the banks... so the physical is coming out of the bullion banks, it's being flywheeled to keep the ponzi scheme going.
bnk
and what about the off-market stuff. we absolutely know china is buying dory bars from mines, we're talking about a vast amount of phyzz flowing east that isn't flowing thru the refineries.

tf- they conned argentina, if bank of england is sending out there own gold, when does that end?
am- there are 6 primary bullion banks, the onus is on them
tf- what does bank of eng say once its all gone.
am- big problem as well as for the FED. it's standard practice to hypothecate. central banks are eyeing skeptically so we're seeing these repatriations. how much is left???
tf- one other thing.. gofo rates?? paper/phyzz connection is strained, what do you reference sim gofo?
am- yes, the lbma was talking of putting otc market on exchange then stopped and brought back gofo. these were always diluted. where is cash gold, the real spot price that gets fixed twice a day. seeing backwardation here is tempting but none done. shows tightness in size. the co-basis has been screaming backwardation. people should see this, everything screaming tightness.
tf- usd looks double topped and dropping. silver is above all averages and gold is almost over 200 dma etc.. where are we going?
am- slight change in footprints, cot reports show commercials setup for a good rinse to the upside. all the hot money is set. 20 is in the cards for silver. options exp on 27, holiday on 25, what are we going to see, a little bit of going thru 100 and 150 the commercials took short side to protect huge derivatives on 27. a second close above 200 will force delta hedge future buy. tech damage has been done, 1224.70 key level. maintaining 17 in silver a lost cause. commercials don't want to be short.
tf- weekly chart clearly shows w bottom. above the 18.20 line is looking good.
am- co-basis was screaming 1300 when we were in the 1280s. 1320 is in the cards.
tf- hey good info, appreciate the time
am- yes, it's cocktail hour
tf- will cut this and post it.
am- thanks, wish everybody a good weekend.
bye 
bye 
end 

good chat, thanks gents!

snarf55 · May 15, 2015 - 1:33pm

Got my vote

Vote is up to : 446

Not getting any chirp about buying some new gold Maples last week. Down right peaceful around here.

Go Andy GO!!! Let the panic begin!!!

Chuck Diesel · May 15, 2015 - 1:35pm

Re The "Nemesis Line"

All of those blue arrows point (more or less) to a series of lower highs. Until gold can put in a new high, then the longer-term downtrend is still in place (in my opinion). If gold can close above $1308, then it's off to the races

Goldencross · May 15, 2015 - 1:36pm

Best wishes ABX adventure

I hope the ABX open's in a few weeks.

Is the Comex, London LMBA the bullionbanks the BIS the Fed etc letting this happen?

People have bin hurt for less in the PM industrie.

For everyone involved I wish them all the best and hope they can pull this ABX adventure off.

wildstylechef · May 15, 2015 - 1:48pm

Gold closes COMEX $1225.5

above 200 day wow big surprise and green for the day

waxybilldupp · May 15, 2015 - 1:57pm

Voting and bonds ...

Just rang up #450. Rock on Turd!

And speaking of BONDS, what the hell is going on? Just got back from a busy morning making some fiat and made my usual rounds, checking the status of PMs, equities, portfolio, weather forecast and bonds. Holy crapolini! Bonds have had quite a ride this week. Can't remember the 10 and 30 year making up/down moves like that in a long time. Things getting a bit unstable out there in bankerland? Just seems a bit odd and omenish. What say you Turdites?

wax off

Scooter · May 15, 2015 - 1:57pm

Good podcast

Eric errrr I mean Turd ! lol Fast on getting it posted as well.

Wondering if Andrew started happy hour about 45 minutes ago.....

Dont forget to vote. I had to refresh the page to be able to vote again.

https://wallethub.com/blog/best-investing-blog/12634/?user

wildstylechef · May 15, 2015 - 1:57pm

And also above the Fib lines

And also above the Fib lines and other points he mentioned smiley

tbryan · May 15, 2015 - 2:22pm

Voted

#459

lund175 · May 15, 2015 - 2:37pm

465

and rising

smidgeofnaut · May 15, 2015 - 2:52pm

I Don't Know

I love Andrew Maguire but I am tired of hearing about the delays of the launch of the ABX ... He broke the news a couple months ago ... maybe more than that - of the imminent launch - like within 2 weeks ... and here we are months later and both he and Tom tell us the same thing - so, basically, what they are really saying is they weren't ready to launch it like they said bec all of these "really good reasons" have "come up" which will be much better for everyone in the long run if they delay the launch in the short term. But these guys are really smart and had thought of everything already ... supposedly ... so what the HELL is going on?

Well ... I DON'T KNOW ... 

regards,

Smidge

· May 15, 2015 - 3:10pm

Sincere thanks to Andrew and Turd!

What an outstanding podcast! It was especially interesting to hear Andrew's perspective as a board member of the new exchange- I would love to hear what his "bullish information" is that he is not yet at liberty to mention. My guess is that the new exchange is proving out in terms of being able to bleed the Comex. Regardless, great information from a VERY well-placed perspective and a pleasure to listen to. Many thanks to Mr. AM for spending some of his valuable time with us at TFMR!

Turd, we here are very fortunate to have you bringing such A+ content. By far, the best 10 bucks a month on the interwebz. Go get a well-earned beer on a beautiful Friday!

CPE · May 15, 2015 - 3:29pm

Obummer

Video unavailable
tyberious · May 15, 2015 - 3:39pm

Obummer

Wow! Like a wet food stamp, LOL!

Underdawg · May 15, 2015 - 3:53pm

Vote

#485

waxybilldupp · May 15, 2015 - 3:57pm

Obummer ...

From a couple years ago but it sure made me chuckle. I'm thinking it would be no different today. Not much of a legacy of "fence mending" for Barry.

wax off

Ubik Kosmil tbryan · May 15, 2015 - 4:26pm

Voted

#542

Libertybella · May 15, 2015 - 4:28pm

Voted

#543

mike97 · May 15, 2015 - 4:48pm

COT looks like a wash this week

Not much to see in the COT. Slightly more negative from the Commercials point of view.

J.P. Cubish · May 15, 2015 - 5:19pm

Good Interview Eric

Has a really comfortable feel to it. This new exchange is really exciting.

"A comex breaker." -Andrew Maguire. I really hope you are right buddy. I've been on this ride long enough to not get my hopes up too much, but I'm definitely rooting for it. It's a gold bugs wet dream. It reminds me of an old song...

"Sometimes I think it's a sin, when I feel like I'm winnin when I'm losing agin.

Sundown, you better take care, if I find you been creepin' 'round my back stairs.

Sometimes I think it's a shame, when I get feeling good and I'm feeling no pain." -Gordon Lightfoot

Gordon Lightfoot Sundown
BarnacleBill · May 15, 2015 - 5:43pm

thank you tf

For such an informative interview with Andrew.

G-Rod · May 15, 2015 - 6:25pm

USD

Check the weekly charts.

It's performing like June/July 2010.

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1

And we know what happened after that.

Marchas45 · May 15, 2015 - 6:34pm

Just Finished Listening

Thanks for the double treat. Very informative guys. Job well done, great listen.

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