Talking Gold with Andrew Maguire

58

The dollar is sinking like a stone. Paper gold and silver are rallying and above their major moving averages. Physical metal demand continues to accelerate worldwide. What a perfect time to get an update from our friend, Andrew Maguire.

This was recorded Friday morning US time, between 11:00 amd and 11:30 am EDT, so it's about as current as you can get. Over the course of this discussion, Andy addresses:

  • the changes to the London Fix process
  • unallocated London gold still affects price but the coming Allocated Bullion Exchange will have a significant impact
  • how London is still able to settle physical trades and the news this morning that England showed a net export to Switzerland of nearly 100 metric tonnes for the month of March
  • in the absence of published GOFO, how Andy computes tightness and/or backwardation in the gold market
  • his current price targets and projected resistance levels

I think you'll find this podcast to be great fun and quite informative. Today's action in the metals and the dollar sets us up for a very interesting end of the month. This "interview" could not have come at a more opportune time.

TF

www.tfmetalsreport.com/freetrial

  58 Comments

texmex66
May 15, 2015 - 12:12pm
CPE
May 15, 2015 - 12:15pm

Excellent

Thanks Turd and Andy!

philly
May 15, 2015 - 12:18pm

Another THURD!

Two THURDs in two days! At least my timing for checking out Turd posts is good! Now if I can only turn that into something useful!! TGIF Turdville!

wildstylechef
May 15, 2015 - 12:25pm

4th

and yes!

Blythesshrink
May 15, 2015 - 12:26pm

Fantastic - that's why I love

Fantastic - that's why I love this place. :-)

May 15, 2015 - 12:35pm

The "Nemesis Line"

Since May 2013, The Banks have worked diligently to maintain this downtrend in order to suppress price and sentiment.

AJwhiteshirt
May 15, 2015 - 1:06pm

Nice surprise interview..

Great on the fly surprise for us all. Thanks. Really feeling the optimism on Andy's side regarding ABX. Did they post a new start date yet?

SS121
May 15, 2015 - 1:09pm

unedited notes from AM chat

andrew maguire podcast
tf- intro
conversation with andrew, known throughout metals world
am- thanks always good to be with you
tf- how are things going over there? they've tried to make fixes more transparent, its still unallocated how does it work
am- lets start with the fix and work backwards, nothing has changed. farce is same dress in different dance, lbma is irked by being forced to show bids, lbma still controls venue but buyers have advantage. the offers almost always exceed bid by 2,3, 5 times. so they just pluck this out of the air. the guy just picks the number under the price if they want, we call it fix paintin as most know. it's about the 7 bullion banks and the chairman. the daily production is sold at market so they just put a number in at market and use weight to push market lower. bullion banks are capping derivative positions, thats what's going on in a general way, the producers have no input to the number picked.
... how come they don't just keep bidding? there no need to chase prices, people forget that massive volume occurs off london.
this price is ok for aggregating bids if you're a jeweler but your not going to get size at this price. that's why people are saying "why not just pay fix" but the difference would be big relative to what is cleared, esp relative to derivatives.

last time we spoke, went through jeff christian cpm explanation, how leverage is involoved collateraling forwards is acceptable but not at 100 times.

i know you wanted to talk about the new exchange, but this info is why it is going to have such an impact on this whole london fixing process.
these off loco transactions are going to channel through abx and is going to reflect the real price sort for physical in all 11 global hubs
producers will offer production, remove liquidity from lbma, small dealers can bid..
orders are already streamed to a central limit order book
all people get the same data.
no matter what size you're after you can find somebody who can provide it. ensures transparency and fairness
tom eloquently explained that existing exchange accesses wholesale market directly, people already want us to trade for them, this will break the grip on the cartel. ...this procedure that is underway now and working is going to plug into the coming abx and add further liquidity
to this lbma
people say "where the hell is it"
per tom there are really good reasons to delay its coming. i wish i could share latest big news, i have a seat on abx. going to be a comex breaker, this merry-go-round will end.
tf- all are excited for this, timing couldn't be better. there's been a downtrend since 2013 w/ the banks keeping it down to control sentiment and demand.
koos tweeted 99 metric ton export. lbma just moves within where is 99 metric tons coming from.
ken said the vaults were empty, where is switzerland getting the real gold.

am- thats about 5 tons a day. have to remember, related to forward contracts... related to derivatives one thing and another. massive dilution, 100 tons cleared every day. bottom line, one thing can be drawn... when they turn up for delivery it has to come from somewhere. the bank of england flywheels, we know the central bank loans into market. simple word 'rehypothecated bullion' insiders say it's normal business. but this demand wasn't anticipated. central banks aren't lending real gold into market. so it falls on bullion banks, so people get cash settled on unallocated bullion with a keystroke but it's just digital. so you bail out the banks... so the physical is coming out of the bullion banks, it's being flywheeled to keep the ponzi scheme going.
bnk
and what about the off-market stuff. we absolutely know china is buying dory bars from mines, we're talking about a vast amount of phyzz flowing east that isn't flowing thru the refineries.

tf- they conned argentina, if bank of england is sending out there own gold, when does that end?
am- there are 6 primary bullion banks, the onus is on them
tf- what does bank of eng say once its all gone.
am- big problem as well as for the FED. it's standard practice to hypothecate. central banks are eyeing skeptically so we're seeing these repatriations. how much is left???
tf- one other thing.. gofo rates?? paper/phyzz connection is strained, what do you reference sim gofo?
am- yes, the lbma was talking of putting otc market on exchange then stopped and brought back gofo. these were always diluted. where is cash gold, the real spot price that gets fixed twice a day. seeing backwardation here is tempting but none done. shows tightness in size. the co-basis has been screaming backwardation. people should see this, everything screaming tightness.
tf- usd looks double topped and dropping. silver is above all averages and gold is almost over 200 dma etc.. where are we going?
am- slight change in footprints, cot reports show commercials setup for a good rinse to the upside. all the hot money is set. 20 is in the cards for silver. options exp on 27, holiday on 25, what are we going to see, a little bit of going thru 100 and 150 the commercials took short side to protect huge derivatives on 27. a second close above 200 will force delta hedge future buy. tech damage has been done, 1224.70 key level. maintaining 17 in silver a lost cause. commercials don't want to be short.
tf- weekly chart clearly shows w bottom. above the 18.20 line is looking good.
am- co-basis was screaming 1300 when we were in the 1280s. 1320 is in the cards.
tf- hey good info, appreciate the time
am- yes, it's cocktail hour
tf- will cut this and post it.
am- thanks, wish everybody a good weekend.
bye
bye
end

good chat, thanks gents!

snarf55
May 15, 2015 - 1:33pm

Got my vote

Vote is up to : 446

Not getting any chirp about buying some new gold Maples last week. Down right peaceful around here.

Go Andy GO!!! Let the panic begin!!!

Chuck Diesel
May 15, 2015 - 1:35pm

Re The "Nemesis Line"

All of those blue arrows point (more or less) to a series of lower highs. Until gold can put in a new high, then the longer-term downtrend is still in place (in my opinion). If gold can close above $1308, then it's off to the races

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, Oct 14, 2019 - 9:10pm
by Trail Trekker, Oct 14, 2019 - 8:32pm
by Trail Trekker, Oct 14, 2019 - 8:27pm
by NW VIEW, Oct 14, 2019 - 8:01pm