x3rs of the pm

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Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 10:34am
billhilly
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more JNUG...

added a third tranche at 6..83 (dca now 7.11) . Totally tapped out now so it's time for the big move UP ! It would cost me 2 out of 3 day trades if I were to sell before the close now so it seems I'm long for the weekend...unless extraordinary events take place today.

Best wishes !

Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 11:07am
tonym9
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out of JNUG at 7.02 for a

out of JNUG at 7.02 for a small scalp, back into JDST at 13.43

Billhilly showing the brass!

i'm still focused on dawn patrol. once the waves calm i'll thunk it out on the hold vs not jnug vs jdst conundrum

EDIT: broke out the ginsu knives again...instead of continuing the damage I'm back in JDST at 13.52 and am walking away. Time to focus on some other things while this sorts out. My chips are on gold taking a hit.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 2:01pm
tonym9
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sold the JDST 13.52 at 13.45,

sold the JDST 13.52 at 13.45, got back in JDST at 13.33....just to get in a little lower on a fade. 

not sure where this is going on the tick by tick, but USD/JPY keeps getting dragged back to 108 land and just cant seem to shake 109low for an upside move when it gets there....seems to be pressured back down. 

pretty sure this JDST position is gonna be held over...rare that i hold 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 5:48pm
billhilly
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Tony's day !

The day belonged to you friend...congrats. 

It looks like I'll roll the dice and hold my (over)full position this weekend. I absolutely feel the same as you about Sun/Mon if nothing happens this weekend but I am just not willing to switch tack at this point. Even with the move gold and $/Y have made this week, I can still see them going in my favor, especially if something happens. 

Tough close to a decent week. 

Happy weekend all !

Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 7:06pm
tonym9
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thanks Billhilly, but poor

thanks Billhilly, but poor execution limited the cha ching for me. still up on the day in real terms so I can't complain. i have to stop the ginsu knife cutting....it's killin my trading

i'm flat right now but am seriously considering the JDST weekend hold....an hour to decide

so many random thoughts about it....add to the pile a big glaring 10% up day in JDST....I try to avoid buying into the x3s in the direction of a double digit move, it usually comes back down. 

the bottom line is I see a huge opportunity here. limited upside with large downside potentials in gold....but if something happens.....

did i say i am tired of ginsu knife cutting...i have to stop 

new ira

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 4 13 2017
"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 7:26pm
tonym9
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BILLHILLY !!!! This effects

BILLHILLY !!!! 

This effects your weekend hold JNUG. I'll be real candid here....I'm not sure what it means for share price. It's 620, 40 mins until a/m close. Hope you see this

https://www.direxioninvestments.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Direxion-Suspends-Creation-Units-for-Daily-Junior-Gold-Miners-Index-Bull-3X-Shares.pdf

NEW YORK—April 13, 2017—Direxion announced today that effective immediately, daily
creation orders in the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares leveraged
exchange traded fund (Ticker: JNUG) are temporarily suspended until further notice. The
suspension is due to the limited availability of certain investments or financial instruments used
to provide requisite exposure to the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. Redemption
orders for the Fund will not be affected, and will continue to be accepted in the ordinary course
of business.
Should demand exceed supply during the period that creation units are limited, the fund could
trade at a premium to its net asset value (NAV). This suspension does not impact the ability of
investors to trade shares of the fund on stock exchanges.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 7:41pm
tonym9
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in DUST at 24.68 for the

in DUST at 24.68 for the weekend hold

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 10:56pm
billhilly
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Tony...

I see your post but cannot understand what you mean/meant about 620. I looked at the after hours action and the high/low was 684/674. You scared the hell out of me brother !!!!

I've been watching the threads and went in search of news regarding this stuff and it is very scarce. I went to the direxion website and couldn't even find this "suspension" news. I don't know. Well it's too late for me to do anything about it now, and I am too tired to do anymore searching tonight. I'll look for more over the weekend and let you know if I find anything.

BTW, I did a google search on "Jnug suspension" and guess what was the third listing ??? It was a link to this thread !!!! You are now a google celeb !

Sleep now. Enjoy the weekend ! 

ps. thanks for putting together this thread...I'm liking it !

Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 12:04am
tonym9
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sorry Billhillly I should

sorry Billhillly I should have added the pm to 620...i was talking about the time...didn't mean it to sound like that

i went to direxion's site and it's listed on bottom left under headlines or recent newsreleases iirc...but that text above is the jist of it.

not sure what it will mean for shareprice

3d on google....that tells me there isnt much out there...wow not many know the impact then

the thread will live or die based on you guys....i hope it flourishes...we shall see

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 9:05am
tonym9
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As of 8am cst USD/JPY at

As of 8am cst

USD/JPY at 108.62

USD at 100.49

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 9:25am
tonym9
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Thinking on this JNUG

Thinking on this JNUG situation, it would seem that if the fund cannot use the financial instruments that it uses to achieve x3 movement, then shareholders and wannabe shareholders will be 100% causation of price change. This will be true price discovery based upon the B/A. Decay has always been a question for me about these x3 funds...it will be interesting to see what happens with it. Honestly I have no idea which way it'll go. But if the issue is not enough jr shares to write on, in a bull market that seems good for JNUG holders.

There is a rebalance of GDXJ, might it all be related?

Billhilly you might be comfortably seated in the JNUG train while others want on.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 9:35am
tonym9
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IMO this is the trigger to

IMO this is the trigger to watch. If Pence deviates from his planned trip Gold should fly. If Pence's schedule doesn't change gold should fall. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/14/us-vice-president-mike-pence-heads-to-se...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 9:39am (Reply to #53)
tonym9
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tonym9 wrote:IMO this is the

Dup

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 9:58am
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Tony

First off, thanks for establishing this thread- Kudos! I too have been working these instruments regularly (though not daily, as you do- I swing trade on longer timeframes) and the news I am seeing appears to me to be, on the surface, quite disconcerting for JNUG as a vehicle. Now it is entirely possible that I am not interpreting this right, so I'll post some thoughts here for critique- any and all, please fire away, I am more than genuinely curious. This is serious business.

First, a few facts:

(1) We have the 1 for 4 reverse split coming up in JNUG... given the history of bleed in this vehicle, this appears to be Direxion giving themselves room for even more bleed. I.E., we can forget the "of gold returns to it's summer 2016 highs, JNUG will be 30 again". They are doing a 1 for 4 share split to make up for the bleed over time, it seems... not great, and the event itself could be the catalyst for more value bleed, thus keeping people out of the shares. JNUG negative.

(2) JNUG yesterday just announced a strange, and unprecedented in the history of the instrument, suspension of issuance of new shares. Though they claim this "may mean it trades at a premium to NAV", ov course they would say this... more likely, they are responsing to this. Given the new rebalancing that GDXJ just announced (negative, see below), they are trying to limit shares in circulation to try and blunt the wave of shorting that is starting... JNUG negative.

(3) GDXJ already is 25% GDX, and owns other companies that are not in any way juniors, such that something like 40% is not "junior miner exposure" already... and now they announce this big funky 'rebalancing' that they are discarding a ton of small miners and adding a handful of majors/bigs. They are getting much less "junior". So if the only reason people choose JNUG over NUGT is that it provides more juice through the juniors, and they are willing to take the extra bleed to get the extra juice in return, what happens when you greatly lessen the 'juniors exposure' part of that equation? You make it a much less attractive vehicle, right? So why trade JNUG when you can just do NUGT and not have as much volatility to the downside, as much bleed, etc.? Plus, why would anyone buy a company from the long list GDXJ just gave of companies that they are going to be selling/ not buying anymore? This will hurt share price for months... JNUG negative.

(4) This is a biggie- https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/12/how-an-etf-gets-too-big-for-its-index.html This article mentions that, due to all the swaps, etc., some people estimate that as much as HALF of the 5.3 billion of GDXJ is because of JNUG... so when/if traders flee JNUG for other instruments? Isn't GDXJ going to get killed? 

All this seems to me to portend some serious turbulence- we just saw on Wednesday gold and GDX up/flat, JNUG down 10% on the day. That is a huge difference, and is directly related to all the above. This seems to me it will get worse not better over the coming weeks/months as what I discussed above plays out ... am I wrong? Is my logic mistaken?

These structural flaws may means price of gold/metals may not matter as much as the above, and it might be time to trace USLV/ UGLD , DSLV /DGLD for your juice for a while until these shake out... Just saying. 

Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 10:24am
tonym9
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Pining  that was one hell of

Pining 

that was one hell of a 6 year weekly chart of gold in the other thread, thanks

To be honest I don't know. This Jnug deal is odd, and creates uncertainty. 

I think your thought process is logical and well presented. The question that jumped in my mind is how much does NUGT go up based upon demand? Could be quite a bit. X3rs are gun shy (or should be). Stampede? I honestly don't know and it may have the opposit effect like a contagion. 

What troubles me is how little direxion put in the release. I copied it exactly from the notice. Very little info with the NAV comment???

Billhilly said he searched and this was third in google??? That screams no one knows for sure in my mind. 

My read of the statement was they can't use the "exotic" financial vehicles to get x3 daily??? IDK....that's the problem, not clearly stated.

Does JDST take off based solely on a JNUG fall that isn't related to GDXJ x3 daily? IDK that either.

i no touched JDST when I read that notice since I didn't understand what it really said and couldn't figure movement...that's why I went DUST vs JDST for this weekend.

I have more questions than answers...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 10:58am
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Yeah, me too

I have same response, so maybe we aren't alone and others will just stay away too. And we know what that would do. 

I just can't figure all this out- is it as simple as "People will just move into GDX / NUGT" and thus those will outperform? Maybe, but it is this very uncertainty we are talking about that I think will have to have a negative effect on jnug and therefore gdxj... and therefore, all the miners in that basket. If people leave jnug in droves, for precisely the reasons we are talking about here, then price of gold may almost be irrelevant to what that thing does (like on Wednesday), and the junior sector as a whole, will do too over the coming months. And if we don't see a pop in metals from here, look out below... it could be essentially calling a top and signaling that it is time to play this from the short side, or not at all? I'm just not sure...

Maybe if we want to be long, be long the metals instruments. If we want to be short, be short the miners. Perhaps it's that simple. A 50% UGLD, 50% JDST would be interesting if I trusted jdst not to bleed out over a month's time. Again, if I'm wrong, somebody please post opposing thoughts, I would welcome the feedback and clarity!

Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 11:59am
billhilly
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chimming in...

I did some more research this morning and have not found anything new to add to the discussion. The lack of clarity is indeed disconcerting and gives me pause. Unfortunately, or fortunately, I am hell-long the JNUG this weekend...time will tell.

Of interest to me is that I have not been able to find the sourcing for the list that has been posted here on the main page about the reallocation of the holdings of GDXJ. I'd love to see the source of that. Also, other than the short communique put out yesterday afternoon on JNUG and its halting of certain new shares, I find the lack of broad internet discussion concerning. 

And of course, there is the price action yesterday that is most troubling. 

I am also curious how/why Direxion determined to make a 1 for 4 split (for 8 different etf's) two months ago. How did they determine that it would be needed so far in advance. My impression was that these events took place as needed rather than long planned events. 

I can come to no decent conclusions regarding the JNUG, even with the seemingly sound opinions of the voices here on this thread. It will be an interesting Sun/Mon to be watching. 

I am dismayed that the information put out by Direxion is so vague. You would think that they would offer a more in-depth discussion about their policy changes rather than leave it up to the market to decipher. This may very well cause me to rethink my trading their products in the future.

Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 12:04pm
tonym9
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A healthy discussion

A healthy discussion indeed...

The thing that I didn't understand and what made me very quizzical / skeptical about the announcement was no mention of JDST. My initial reaction was to no touch both of them.

In theory JDST should be experiencing the same difficulties as JNUG, since the 'exotic' financials used for JNUG are simply the opposite side for JDST....both based on the juniors. Direxion's goal isn't price moving up or down in either JDST or JNUG, it is to achieve x3 movement of the underlying ticker (GDXJ), no matter the direction on a daily basis....Direxion says this in the prospectus. So assuming the share amounts of the jrs are an issue, which is not a settled causative fact right now, wouldn't it be just as difficult if not more to write negative price movement action as it apparently is for positive price movement action? ....especially in a market where the gold miner bulls are just licking their collective chops?

Assuming the above is true, why was JDST not mentioned?

That question might be addressed by your above writing. Direxion is indeed trying to avoid an avalanche of shorter's action.

But in the overall scheme of things does one week's shorting action as large/irregular as it may be when compared to historical norms, cause Direxion to make a move like this? IDK. Seems very very odd to me. 

It makes me wonder what is the next shoe to drop. I'm not saying there is a shoe btw, just that it makes me wonder.

None of it makes sense. Looking at it from a retail investor's perspective, I'm confused. I'm guessing many others are too.

The other thought in my head is I remember reading negative writing months back about all the derivative action in Direxion's x3 miner funds and that someday it would blow up.....is it? I'm not trying to pile on, but is this the first sign of that action. Is someone out there being seriously squeezed by rates or something else, and are starting to limit other exposures? Both sides have to have a dance partner....hmmmm

Confusion = avoidance

Forgetting geo-politicals for a moment, I see a few scenarios for monday/tuesday:

-traders move away from GDXJ based on the rebalancing issue alone, into GDX based on GDXJ's changes

-traders exit JNUG and JDST, due to Direxion's actions and the fear of confusion

-traders pile into NUGT DUST

This could get very ugly very fast and isn't just idle musings over a holiday weekend. We could be looking at an exodus of traders...and it may not be limited to JDST/JNUG...contagion would effect all of it. I don't think DUST/NUGT based upon GDX will be hurt here....but if you follow the logic, one must look at the possibility. 

Add back in Geo-politicals....whew...

Like I said, more questions than answers

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 12:42pm
tonym9
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Honestly someone much smarter

Honestly someone much smarter than me/us needs to make a statement of clarification before markets open on Monday. The only source of that has to be Direxion. I wouldn't hold your breath. 

The share movements of JDST/JNUG and possibly NUGT/DUST on Monday morning could indeed ignore gold's movement, in whatever direction.

This could be a reallocation of trading funds event.

OR....it could be nothing. Said with emphasis!!!!

The one thing I can tell you that I do know, is at 445am cst Monday i'll be checking movements. If I get even a small wiff of heading for the exits by traders, I'll exit myself...no matter the share price. 

The question is, how many are thinking the same thing?

This may be the one time us little guys have an advantage over the big guys...the big guys have to be careful of creating a stampede vs reacting to one.

Is it possible this causes JDST/JNUG to be placed on a hold/stop trading? I'm not trying to be alarmist here, but you have to carry out the logic of a stampede, as remote as the possibility may be. Is there a way to find out if Direxion requested a halt? I've never tried to research that. 

Again, I'm not saying a stampede occurs or even a halt to trading...I want to stress that....But you have to explore the thought process for yourself to be ready Monday morning. That question must be answered before the event happens. 

For me, I had a trading plan before I bought the DUST.....if Geo-political blow up this weekend I'm out of DUST at premarket open and flipping to NUGT. If Geo-political is quiet over the weekend, I watch and see what USD/JPY, USD, Rates do...then decide on how long I ride DUST. 

BUT TRADING VOL AT 5AM WILL DICTATE NOW.

I strongly urge the retail small fish who are here to be sharp at 5am and watch vol in JDST/JNUG/NUGT/DUST. If it is abnormally high in JNUG with downside emphasis, then you are possibly seeing the beginning stages of a stampede to the exits. At that point you have no choice but to no touch all of Direxion's x3 miner funds.

JNUG down on bad NoK/Trump/China news with gold up = get the hell out of JNUG fast. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 14, 2017 - 1:01pm
tonym9
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note to self, this is just

note to self, this is just for me to remember...things to check as x3 alts. some of the stuff i used to play with several years ago, and haven't even looked at in a while...i was knee deep in silver only back then

AGQ 

ZSL

SLV

PSLV

and 2 from other's posting

​​​​​​​SDGM

SDGJ

Maybe we should compile a list of good x2 and x3 alternates to Direxion??? just thinking out loud here. If a trader wants the x3 juice from Direxion without the new questions risk, where do I go? Finding that answer if there is a stampede could prove to be very rewarding...something for me to look at tonight. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

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