The Fog of War

25
Sun, Mar 1, 2015 - 3:14pm
Quote:
War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.

-- Carl von Clausewitz

Vault subscribers know that I've been writing about events in the Ukraine for a while now. I've also been doing a lot of digging and reading, trying to make sense of exactly what's going on there as well as what's happening between the U.S. and Russia. I've found a lot of things that are worthy of your consideration, regardless what you already think about the war in Ukraine or which side you feel is morally "right". None of this is inside knowledge--anyone can find this information if they ask the right questions and look in the right places. Neither are these things some crazy conspiracy theory which requires huge leaps of the imagination. And so, based on a suggestion by JY896, Turd has graciously allowed me the opportunity to present these things in a semi-regular blog format for the consideration and discussion for all of Turdville.

This is also the umpteenth time I've tried to write this article. The problem is, that the full magnitude of what is happening is too big--too sophisticated--to cover in one, brief article. As I've joked before, it's a VERY big rabbit hole. To say that I've agonized as to what and how to present these things would be a gross understatement. There's also the delicate matter the conflict's nature. This is because we are in the middle of a very real information and psychological war between two of the world's largest powers. And as I understand the conflict, BOTH sides view the war as an existential struggle--and both sides are playing deceptively and unethically.

Please understand that a large-scale, well-organized information war has no clearly-delineated battlefields and the targets in such a war are the hearts and minds of everyone on the planet. The world has never seen this type of warfare--on this scale--with these technological resources. In this type of war, words and ideas are the new bombs and bullets and can be more effective than a hundred laser-guided bombs delivered perfectly to their targets. Traditional, alternate, and social media become the territories where battles are fought and attacks are launched. Counterfeit realities and their development in popularly-accepted memes are the new "campaigns." Both sides employ counter-measures against attacks which results in twisted, half-truths and partial realities that take on lifes of their own. Thus, it's critically important that you take great care in discussing the war, the attacks, the strategies, lest you become a proxy fighter who unwittingly furthers one side or the other's objectives.

Again, both sides are already engaged in this new war. As an example from the "innocent" Russian side, consider the following quote from one of the most popular Pro-Russian/Novorussian bloggers, "Colonel Cassad" (a.k.a. Boris Rozhin):

Quote:
“I think in the future [the Kremlin] will slowly reveal other details of the invisible but effective work of Voentorg, when the northern wind brought junta forces to a severe military catastrophe."

“I hope now my post from August will be more clear. Then I could only speak in those terms, today I can say more, and in a few months and even years even more will be told. It is difficult to keep quiet, when you know about such things and people are asking – where did the new [armored fighting vehicle] come from or “what is that in the background of that video?” But you have to understand, that one has to keep quiet until the time comes, due to information war and military secrets. In reality those who fought in Donbass, and those who helped with logistics sooner or later learned about Voentorg and its functions such things which are not shown on TV or online. This is part of ‘hybrid’ and ‘web-centric’ (net-centric) wars, which Russia is learning today, when information cover becomes one of the important parts of military planning. Americans are pros in this, but Russia for the most part is learning from them, and the war in Georgia, and Crimean spring, and Voentorg in Novorossia show that from a purely military perspective, our army is learning fast, although there are mistakes, problems and shortcomings. And the main thing – officially there was never a Russian army on the territory of DPR and LPR.

So in addition to my usual “Ukraine Updates”, my intent with this blog is to objectively explore the “Who? What? Why? How? and To what end?” of this war. Some of the topics that I already plan to cover (in no particular order):

  • The U.S. and Russian geo-strategies that have inevitably clashed in Ukraine
  • Eurasianism and the spiritual and esoteric foundations of this fascist movement
  • The not-so-innocent beginnings of “Novorussia” and the Donetsk/Lugansk Republics
  • Hybrid, psychological, information and net-centric warfare and how both sides use these
  • The “arab spring/color revolution” tactic

I'm not trying to withhold information from you, tease you or make you dependent on me or this site for information. I have a young family and a day job that are my priorities. So, please, feel free to read-ahead and follow some of the following breadcrumbs: Look into the Rasputin-esque Aleksandr Dugin and read what Russian military officers studied in Dugin's 1992 book "The Great War of Continents" or his 1997 book "Foundations of Geopolitics". Do a word-search in the last book as well as Brzezinksi's 1997 book "The Grand Chessboard" for the word "Ukraine". Check into the ultra-nationalist, neo-fascist, and cult-like underpinnings of the Eurasian movement. Combine some of the early Novorussian leaders names with Dugin and see what Sergeant Google will return. Just guard yourselves. Resist the temptations to choose a side. Heed my warning above about being a proxy fighter.

My desire is to objectively present the things that I've found. I don't want to convince anyone. I'm not "pro" either side. I just want to relay what I see from this corner of the watchtower.

Quote:
"But if the watchman see the sword come, and blow not the trumpet, and the people be not warned; if the sword come, and take any person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood will I require at the watchman's hand."

What you do with this is up to you.

Welcome to the fog of war.

About the Author

  25 Comments

  Refresh
Nick Elway
Mar 24, 2015 - 10:46am

Sniper summary in the Fog Of War

Quote:
With so many unanswered questions, the truth about who was responsible for the killings remains far less clear cut than many commentators claim.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/rbth/politics/10857920/ukraine-mur...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/05/ukraine-bugged-call-cather...

Nick Elway
Mar 24, 2015 - 10:41am

MH17 summary

The Fog of War should have MH17 tracking, the best I found was

https://www.corbettreport.com/what-really-happened-to-mh17-an-open-sourc...

and the video

Video unavailable
ivars
Mar 3, 2015 - 3:50am

Unfortunately there is

Unfortunately there is nothing we can do to avoid the war continuation and spreading into e.g. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Baltics etc. Very close to home, and pushing forward with unstoppable historic certainty. Slowly but surely tensions will increase as declining empire (Russia) clashes with expanding one (USA) whose existence depends on expansion, so yes this is existential contest from both sides with China on the sidelines so far looking to grab part of Russia and Central Asia and become a balancing power on par with the USA ..for some time, looking forward to take control from the USA in next decades. For that, they only need to ensure control over reserve currency which will come later, after some period where the USA and China, and may be Europe and India will share reserve currency status, broaden its base until China is ready to take over 100%.

braincramps
Mar 2, 2015 - 9:40am

@SS

Thank you for your contributions in advance as I know it will be a personal struggle to get it right...

Chuck

Mar 2, 2015 - 9:16am

How about this poor guy?

Mar 2, 2015 - 9:13am

Thanks

Keeping tabs and being more informed on this conflict may be critical to our own decision making as the future unfolds. I appreciate your efforts.

SilveryBlue
Mar 2, 2015 - 6:23am

No photos

of the massed Russians slavering at the border?

Does that mean retired Generals don't get satellite privileges? Or do they lose them after the first 10 years of retirement?

What did the Gen RT do to be dragged out - make a bad investment? Hmm.

Has NATO not got any serving generals to do this or are they all busy elsewhere? <darting looks all around/>

Ah. I get it. Budget thingy right? Good for the old fella to get right back on that horse when called. And a bonus to the super. Rock on Grampy

Edit in case you are NOT sure of the sarcasm: This is a sideshow. Look elsewhere for the real action.

flyinkel
Mar 2, 2015 - 1:15am

The Fog of War

I don't normally hattip the articles, I don't know why. In the past year and half or so the number would fit easily on one hand (I think), but I hattipped yours.

Please post what keeps you and yours safe, it's the only thing I ask of you. Be strong, be well.

P.S. Boomer Sooner article above is hilarious.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

boomer sooner
Mar 1, 2015 - 11:36pm

Thanks SS

The "Fog of War" is definately a a pain in the arse. Which side is the correct side is blurred beyond recognition. I'm guessing both/three/four sides are lying in some form.

The following was found buried in the sakers comments section. I have read the IHS site in the past, but now look at the info as containing a form of the truth.

UPDATE: Russia's hybrid war in Ukraine 'is working'

Key Points

A conference attended by influential Ukrainian and US officials has concluded that Russia's hybrid warfare campaign in eastern Ukraine is working

Ukrainian forces continue to be outmatched, not only by the hardware they face but also the sophistication of the offensive they face

A significant forum focusing on the current situation in eastern Ukraine and the future of the country in terms of its relationship with the EU and NATO has revealed that Russia's 'hybrid warfare' campaign in its former Soviet vassal state appears to be achieving Moscow's desired results.

At a 14 February conference in the southern city of Dnepropetrovsk, Lieutenant General Ruslan Homchak, the head of the Ukrainian military's Operational Command South, and others involved in the combat in the eastern regions of Lugansk and Donetsk, along with a team from the Potomac Foundation, a Washington, DC-based private defence and foreign affairs think-tank, briefed the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, and two defence attaches from the US Embassy in Kiev.

The Potomac team was led by its director, Dr Phil Karber, a former senior official within the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and General Wesley Clark (rtd), who served as NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) from 1997-2000.

The main points made by the briefers were as follows:

- There are currently 14,400 Russian troops on Ukrainian territory backing up the 29,300 illegally armed formations of separatists in eastern Ukraine. These units are well equipped with the latest main battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, plus hundreds of pieces of tube and rocket artillery. There are also 29,400 Russian troops in Crimea and 55,800 massed along the border with eastern Ukraine.

More at link---

https://www.janes.com/article/49469/update-russia-s-hybrid-war-in-ukrain...

Now I am cracking up. Getting the Russian Lovely's in the side column. Have to keep the page skewed when wifey is around, otherwise the "fog of war" may get closer to home!

SteveW
Mar 1, 2015 - 7:47pm

False flags

It's often much easier to see who won't benefit compared to who will, and always a problem to determine motive.

One thing I do know is that only once in the history of civil aviation has the result of an enquiry into a crash not been made public. So this marks the global descent into a monstrous evil where the grieving relatives of those who were collateral damage can never have closure.

SS, I've enjoyed your commentaries and look forward to more. I trust this involvement will not take away too much from your job and family. Best wishes.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

randomness