Riding The Line - Update

150
Thu, Sep 4, 2014 - 10:23am

This post was written on July 14...nearly two months ago. I'm reposting it today for public distribution. I'm not doing this to pat myself on the back or to inspire new subscriptions. Instead, I offer this post as even further proof of the degree to which the paper metal "markets" are manipulated and controlled by the bullion banks, at the behest of the central banks. It also should give you optimism that this current beatdown scheme has nearly run its course.

"Now There's A Big Surprise"

By, Turd Ferguson

Monday, July 14, 2014 at 9:58 a.m.

It took almost a month but, to no one's surprise, The Cartel Banks have finally come after gold today. Apparently the weekly close above $1331 was too much for them to take, much like the $1380+ close back on March 14. So, now what? How far will price fall before The Leg Hounds finish their business?

If you've been around here for a while, you know about The Mississippi Leg Hounds. As Cousin Eddie says, "once they lay into ya, you'd best let 'em finish their business." As mentioned in Friday's podcast, The Cartel Banks added over 100,000 contracts NET SHORT in just five weeks...all in a vain attempt to contain a measly 7% price rally. In just plain old, naked short, fresh paper, they added over 79,000 contracts or nearly 250 metric tonnes of paper metal! WHY?!? Because they had to contain the rally before the charts turned decidedly bullish....and if the charts turned bullish, investment demand would return...and if investment demand returns, from where will the gold come?

After the huge rally of June 19, The Banks were left playing defense. It played out as you can see below:

With the Friday close solidly above the critical 31 breakout level that had been defended so ardently for over three weeks, it was clearly decided over the weekend that the RAID would begin today. There is absolutely no doubt about it and this is standard Cartel operating procedure. The most recent example of this was back in March when, after having failed at defending the 80 level on 3/14, The Cartel pounced almost immediately on Sunday 3/16 and the proceeded to work over price for the next two weeks. By the end of the first week, here's what they had managed to do to the charts:

After applying steady pressure for a second week, they'd managed to drop price over 0 and back to the always-important 80 level:

So how does this relate to today? I've been warning since late June that The Bad Guys would be coming. Getting price back below the main trendline was too important and that is clearly their goal now. Where is that line today? See for yourself:

I don't think there's any doubt (and I would be totally surprised if it didn't) that gold is headed to 80 and the primary downtrend line that we've been following all year. In fact, I wouldn't even be surprised by a dip to the 60 area. If you are looking to trade/stack, that's what I would be waiting for.

As this relates to silver, the main line on the daily chart is way the heck down near .75. It's going to tale a lot of work for them to get it there but it's not out of the question. IF they pull this off, I would be all over it! The main, weekly trendline is even farther down, near , and below most miners' cost of production. In my opinion, the long-term trend in silver has undeniably flipped and any dip back toward the old trendline is a buying opportunity.

OK, it's almost 11:00 EDT so I'm going to stop right here. You key takeaways should be these:

  • This is completely and 100% expected and predictable.
  • The selling will continue until price gets back near or below the main trendline.
  • The Criminal Bastard Cartel Banks remain 100% in charge of the paper market. Anyone who denies "gold manipulation" is either a silly, inexperienced fool or a paid shill and disinfo agent.

I will, of course, have a complete summary of the day's events with a podcast later today and I'll be adding comments to this thread in between. Please be sure to check back often.

TF

September 4, 10:00 AM EDT UPDATE:

As you can see below, since this article was originally posted, price indeed has fallen back toward the main trendlines. Not only that, price is "riding the line" as support for both metals, just as we said it would:

Gold has indeed bottomed between $1260 and $1280 as I have a low this week in the Dec14 contract of $1262. Silver has fallen past $19.75 to $19.20 only because the decline has taken so long to play out. With time, the long-term trendlines keep falling so silver had to fall an extra 50¢ just to catch up with it.

Ultimately, what does this mean going forward? Will prices continue to fall from here, as some are quick to suggest? I say no! This entire, manufactured decline from July 14 has now nearly run its course. Prices will reverse soon and begin to recover. The first level to watch in gold is $1320. After that, $1345. For silver, $20.60 remains a key pivot point.

Again, it is important that you understand this...If the selloff from $1345 was predictable, then the rally into year end is predictable, too. Keep the faith and persevere. Recognize this latest Cartel action for what it is and position yourself for the higher prices ahead.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  150 Comments

SilverX3
Sep 4, 2014 - 11:53am

The longer we stay stuck in 1200-1400 range

We will ride out of and above any down trend lines you can draw because we simply can't go any lower - whether due to floor being set by paper traders or physical off take. Eventually we fight out of this range as traders and institutions see the tremendous value in the Gold sector and this thing takes off and creates the virtuous cycle that Turd often alludes to. The only way this thing lasts forever is if you have lower prices year after year. However, as we've witnessed in the last 3 years that there's a limit to the downside. There's myriad reasons why we haven't gone to new lows. No need to enumerate them all as we're all well acquainted with each and every single one.

Remember this - Any physical commodity market that has run out of sellers with strong fundies will attract value buyers and the tide turns eventually. It's just a matter of time.

1200 was the floor in 2013

1300 is the floor in 2014

You get the idea going forward

Mickey
Sep 4, 2014 - 12:00pm

Nenner

financial survival.com has a piece by Nenners guy Gurwitz.

Says we are close to a tradable bottom.

He too has been calling, and delaying a big turn up--TA and cycles work when you do not have a Central bank or group of central banks working to manage all markets.

ancientmoney CPE
Sep 4, 2014 - 12:01pm

CPE re: trendline slope . . .

"Your assumptions don't take into account that physical Au and Ag, not paper, must still be available at "market prices".

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, they do.

I said they will contain prices until comex/paper PMs fail. When phyzz is gone, they fail. Until then, they control the price.

That having been said, they do not want to hasten the loss of phyzz until they are "ready" to take off the paper shackles. That is why they don't smash prices to zero.

However, when the paper PMs fail, then the value of holding SLV, GLD, comex PM options, etc. all will go to ZERO.

CPE
Sep 4, 2014 - 12:14pm

@ancientmoney

I'm glad we agree then, but to be clear a downward sloping trendline eventually reaches zero. Because the mines are/will shut down long before then, the physical market is underpinning price along with Chinese and other Central Bank buying.

Since we've reached a point where it's difficult to take it lower because of physical availability I would say Au & Ag are at the point where they are now a free call option on the failure of this seeming Omnipotence of paper manufacturers...

In other words, little downside, unlimited upside.....

Dr. P. Metals
Sep 4, 2014 - 12:23pm

Gold in euros

I wonder if that chart is telling us anything?

Mr. Fix
Sep 4, 2014 - 12:41pm

Just riding the train to the end of the line:

I know I'm not stating anything new here, but I don't read the charts, I gave it up when I realized the extent of the manipulation. We are range bound at approximately the cost of digging it up until the system implodes, and then, initially speaking “of course”, it will fall off a cliff, because paper promises will be deemed worthless.

The Western banks are losing their grasp on power, I'm beginning to think that their grand plans for a “New World order” are starting to come apart at the seams, as their printing press is only valuable for as long as people will accept their worthless notes.

Even for the vast majority of “government goons”, their loyalty will last as long as their last paycheck.

I think the Western banking cartels attempt at diverting attention from themselves for the crimes they have and are committing, isn't working as well in “the electronic age” as it did in the past.

They used to be able to pull their scams with “no one waking up”, this time it's different.

Admittedly, most of the populace is pretty brain-dead, but most of the worldwide intelligence agencies know exactly what's going on, and who is to blame, which is why most of the world is aligning against the Western banking cartel.

I know they can make a mess of things, as they will inevitably adopt a “scorched earth” policy,

but in the end, they can be defeated, they are outnumbered.

Sep 4, 2014 - 12:43pm

Ivars

You make too much sense sometimes. Bankers rule the world--hidden bankers that answer to nobody. The Rocks and Roths are as simple a theory as any out there. what was Occums razor? ... the principle of parsimony or elegance or simplicity? "among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better." It doesn't get much simpler that--Rocks vs Roths. West vs East. But in this case, it is not good vs evil, but evil vs evil, hidden from view, struggling for control of all. But the evidence is in the news every day. That gets my bible thumping impulse in gear, but you have all heard the Armageddon story before.

kardnul
Sep 4, 2014 - 12:53pm

@ancient money

I said they will contain prices until comex/paper PMs fail. When phyzz is gone, they fail. Until then, they control the price.

That having been said, they do not want to hasten the loss of phyzz until they are "ready" to take off the paper shackles. That is why they don't smash prices to zero.

However, when the paper PMs fail, then the value of holding SLV, GLD, comex PM options, etc. all will go to ZERO.

_________________________________________

MULTIPLE HAT TIPS!

TasSTL
Sep 4, 2014 - 1:06pm

Silver

$18.75 here we come. Probably not today, but likely tomorrow.

Unholy Dalliance ancientmoney
Sep 4, 2014 - 1:18pm

'However, when the paper PMs

'However, when the paper PMs fail, then the value of holding SLV, GLD, comex PM options, etc. all will go to ZERO.'

This has been my argument, at least as far as COMEX futures contracts are concerned. There will come a day, possibly a day in the near future, when CME will announce no gold and silver futures available. Spot only contracts: but there will not be metal available for which those contracts can be 'stopped'. It will all have 'gone'. This is not my prediction but one made by Jim Sinclair on 23 July 2013 - over a year ago! I have posted his email to subscribers twice now on TFMR. I won't do it a third time. Instead, you'll have to find it yourselves on his website (www.jsmineset.com).

There is an inevitability to all this which Turd doesn't overtly talk about but it can be gleaned from the language of his post above. It is the language of patience and the language of believing the 'paper-pushers' cannot trade an basket empty of gold and silver specie forever. We are forever being told about the so-called 'Ruben doctrine' of putting off the inevitable (catastrophe) for one more day, one more week, one more month. Well, here you see it in action every day and yet… the inevitable (catastrophe) is nearly upon them!

I think they wanted to make a huge fool of Jim Sinclair who has been 'a thorn in their side' (an expression they love to use about those whom they don't control) for a long time. That doesn't make his prediction silly or wrong. There are many strands of deduction which will lead you to the conclusion that the days of PM futures trading, perhaps on ALL commodities exchange are numbered.

We know that real 'spot' exchanges/markets are springing up in China, Indonesia, Hong Kong (as a separate entity to mainland China) and elsewhere in the far east. Trading 'spot' contracts will be the new norm (actually an old norm whose practice is being revived). That is how gold and silver were traded, to my personal knowledge, here in London up until the late 1960s. Silver was traded using spot contracts and most metal was shunted round a vault somewhere in 'The City' day after day. Most of it never left - BUT IT WAS ACTUAL METAL TRADED - NOT paper contracts. I have mentioned this before but I bet no one has taken any notice. Spot contracts will now become the norm once again - slowly to begin with - but gaining momentum as more exchanges switch: the western exchanges will be dragged into switching from futures kicking and screaming but the choice for them will be simple: change to 'spot' or go out of business.

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