The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, July 8

Wednesday, July 8, 2020 - 5:55pm

It was another terrific day in the metals and miners and now we await to see if the usual pullback appears tomorrow...which it might. But that's OK. It has already been a great week and we mostly look forward to seeing how the weekly charts get painted.

For today, an important...

Surging Prices

July seems to be playing out as forecast.

Wednesday, July 8, 2020 - 10:36am

With little Bank interference and a continued favorable interest rate environment, spot gold ha surpassed $1800 today for the first time since 2011 and it is dragging Comex silver along for the ride, too.

Where do you start today? I guess with where we left off last night. In the...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, July 7

Tuesday, July 7, 2020 - 5:40pm

It was another solid day for the Comex precious metals and some late day gasoline was poured on the fire by a couple of Fed Goons....which leaves us wondering...what might be in store for tomorrow?

To that end, please be sure to see these two links:

  • ...

Monkey Jam

But real rates continue to fall.

Tuesday, July 7, 2020 - 9:41am

Tuesday begins with prices walked back in London and then shoved lower at precisely 8:30 ET. But the day ahead is going to be a long one and this week is all about the Friday close, regardless.

So we'll see where we go from here. The action was fine most of last evening but once The...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, July 6

Monday, July 6, 2020 - 5:45pm

It was a very good start to the week and we have much to discuss today so please carve out the time to listen to this podcast.

I have no links or general discussion today as there's simply too much to cover. I don't like to start the week with a lengthy podcast that's full of charts...

New Week, Same "Markets"

Monday, July 6, 2020 - 10:43am

After a three-day weekend, it's always challenging to get your head screwed back on. So we'll ease into it today as we look ahead to what should be a relatively quiet week of news and datapoints.

Should be ...THAT is the key phrase. There are a lot of things in 2020...

Fireworks with The Jackass

Friday, July 3, 2020 - 10:00am

It's another three-day, U.S. market holiday weekend so you know what that means...a visit from our friend, The Golden Jackass himself, Jim Willie.

Much has changed since we last spoke with Jim a month ago...but much has stayed the same, too. If you want a reminder of where we left off...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, July 2

Thursday, July 2, 2020 - 4:59pm

It's the start of a three-day holiday weekend here in the U.S. and that can only mean three things....some relaxation, a chat with The Jackass and a new Hat Contest!!

OK so here's the deal. It's going to be a very interesting and volatile month of July and, as you know, I expect strong...

Just Your Typical BLSBS

Thursday, July 2, 2020 - 10:48am

Once again, the MSM and their pundits go crazy over one single datapoint while failing to put it into context. As you might imagine, we might be able to add a little context here at TFMR.

If you want to read all about it from a "mainstream" perspective, knock yourself out:


TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, July 1

Wednesday, July 1, 2020 - 6:34pm

Sorry for the delayed podcast but there was a lot going on late in the day and I was trying to make this recording as up-to-date as possible.

So where do we begin today?...with a discussion of the selloff today and the "rationale" behind it. From there we discuss the FOMC minutes. Here...

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories


Donate Shop

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by paybyphonecasinouk, 1 hour 50 min ago
by 11IMIX, 7 hours 11 min ago
by 11IMIX, 7 hours 14 min ago
by ClimbingPanther, Jul 13, 2020 - 10:23pm
by Saxon888, Jul 13, 2020 - 4:28pm