The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

Tuesday, November 19, 2019 - 10:22am

Just a brief post as time is short today.

I've got a busy afternoon of holiday TurdFork prep. Once this is posted, I'll begin writing my weekly article for Sprott Money and I hope to have a podcast published by 1:00 EST. In the meantime, just this short list of items.


TFMR Podcast - Monday, November 18

Monday, November 18, 2019 - 5:35pm

It was an odd day full of Trade war rumors, Hong Kong madness and an unscheduled meeting between Trump, Chief Goon Powell and Secretary SmokinHotWife. All of this combined to thwart a London Monkey pounding and allow both Comex digital metals to finish the day in the green.

For today,...

Where Will This Lead?

Concerns for Hong Kong grow by the day.

Monday, November 18, 2019 - 10:25am

A new week begins with madness, turmoil and discord spreading like wildfire around the globe.

As we've discussed here for weeks, my chief concern is for Hong Kong and the people there. Additionally, however, the situation will also have major Trade War implications should Xi soon...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, November 15

Friday, November 15, 2019 - 4:58pm

Well, we made it...we were able to finish the week green candles...but just barely. Now we turn the corner to next week and begin to concern ourselves with the pending Dec19 expirations and the open interest collapse that will come with them.

For today, these two ZH links to consider...

Shameless and Ceaseless

Eight Ball Larry strikes again.

Friday, November 15, 2019 - 10:59am

Regardless of the pitiful US economic data today, the Comex metals (and bond market) are down due to the same old shenanigans of Trade War headlines. At this rate, keeping the "stock market" juiced with daily Trade War Hopium might have to continue for years to come.

So, after the...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, November 14

Thursday, November 14, 2019 - 5:36pm

As it stands now, both Comex metals have green candles for the week. However, we must still navigate our way through Friday and there will be all sorts of economic datapoints and trade headlines forthcoming.

For today, please check these three links:

  • ...

Something New To Watch

What the heck is "pledged gold"?

Thursday, November 14, 2019 - 10:55am

On the surface today, it's the same old, same old. Impeachment proceedings, Hong Kong and SEVEN Fed Goon speeches. SEVEN! So let's talk about something else, instead.

Beginning Tuesday and through the day yesterday, a potential issue kept bouncing up in front of me. I first caught it...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, November 13

Wednesday, November 13, 2019 - 6:03pm

As we inch closer back to UP on the week, it's time to ponder whether IF we can actually finish Friday with green candles on the weekly chart.

It was a busy day full of news and trade headlines and...when it was finally done...both Comex digital metals had turned in strong performances...

Some Objectivity From Batchelor and Cohen

Wednesday, November 13, 2019 - 4:50pm

With the start of the impeachment hearings and the attendant rumors, allegations and innuendo, we're happy to post last evening's "Cold War Update" from John Batchelor and Professor Stephen F. Cohen. Though they've been recording these hours for nearly six years now, their content remains vital...

CPI, CGP, Impeachment & Hong Kong

Wednesday, November 13, 2019 - 10:44am

None of these four are directly related but all of these four are moving the markets today.

Let's start with the latest US inflation data. The headline number came in "hotter" than expected at +0.4%...holy cow, that's almost 5%/year!...but that exaggerates the true picture. More than...

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales


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