The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

FOMC Day One

And another day of POSX AlgoHell.

Tuesday, September 15, 2020 - 10:19am

Well, here we go. The September FOMC begins today and concludes tomorrow with Chief Goon Powell presenting his Fedlines and holding his presser. What will come of it? Will there be anything at all of substance given the US election pending in seven weeks? I guess we'll find out soon enough....

TFMR Podcast - Monday, September 14

Monday, September 14, 2020 - 5:31pm

It's going to be a crazy week and no one can safely predict what will happen as the major deciding factor will be what the FOMC says...and doesn't say...come Wednesday.

The week began with a nice UPtick as a falling POSX prompted Machine bids for CDG and CDS. But don't get too attached...

Walking The Pig

Monday, September 14, 2020 - 10:49am

As a consequential FOMC week begins, the POSX is sharply lower and this, as per the current usual, is leading to higher Comex digital metal prices today. But it's going to be a long flippin week so don't go getting too excited just yet.

You're going to hear this a lot this week so we...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, September 11

Friday, September 11, 2020 - 5:16pm

Though it may not feel like it, we actually had an UP week with green candles across the board as both Comex metals and the major mining share ETFs posted weekly gains. But now we turn our attention to the FOMC meeting next week and, with the US election looming, no one can be certain as to...

The First Hints of Stagflation

Friday, September 11, 2020 - 9:33am

With yesterday's Producer Price Index and today's Consumer Price Index, the US is beginning to see its first hints of the coming stagflation. If we're right about this, the long-term impact on the precious metals and the mining shares will be significant so this is something we need to closely...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, September 10

Thursday, September 10, 2020 - 4:02pm

It was a tough day as the POSX staged a massive reversal and sent almost every other "market" reeling...even the "stock market". So now, with nearly everything linked to The Pig via algo, what will happen next?

That's suddenly the question. It's one thing to have just Comex gold and...

Going My Way

Thursday, September 10, 2020 - 10:44am

The economic data and other news flow today has been just what we needed to continue to rallies that began late Tuesday. And now, since it's already Thursday, we can begin to hope for some pretty green candles when we update the weekly charts tomorrow.

So what are those news items and...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, September 9

Wednesday, September 9, 2020 - 5:59pm

The Comex metals and mining shares continued to rally today ahead of what will be an interesting Thursday. Please be sure to give this podcast a listen.

For today, a general discussion that includes a look ahead to tomorrow's PPI as well as some early calculations of the average prices...

Inflation Data Pending

Wednesday, September 9, 2020 - 10:34am

Tomorrow brings the Producer Price Index and Friday brings the Consumer Price Index. Will either of these show the beginning stages of the stagflation that we expect in the months to come?

Of course, neither of these will even come close to approximating the true level of price...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, September 8

Tuesday, September 8, 2020 - 6:03pm

It was a fascinating day as initial weakness was turned around and became a beautiful reversal. However, late day dumping of stocks led to further strength in The Pig and this, in turn, led to renewed algo selling on Comex metal.

Regardless, had you promised my $1939 and $26.84 earlier...

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits


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