The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, May 17

Tuesday, May 17, 2022 - 5:28pm

Today may have finally pushed your host over the edge and into the sanatorium. I hope they have nice rooms there. Do you suppose they have ice cream? I really like ice cream.

OK, maybe I'm not ready to be institutionalized just yet...but...this past month has worn me out. So, for today...

To Recess or Not To Recess

Tuesday, May 17, 2022 - 10:24am

That is the question. For yours truly, the end result has always been stagflation and the US (and world) is definitely headed in that direction. But today's economic data seemed to forestall the recession talk for now and that has helped to drive the Comex metals backward...again.


TFMR Podcast - Monday, May 16

Monday, May 16, 2022 - 5:42pm

In what may go down as a trend change and reversal day, Comex Digital Gold fully recovered from an overnight London Monkey raid to post a high that was $41 above the low. Could it be that the lows for this brutal, four-week downtrend are in? Ask me again tomorrow at this time.

And why...

Tell Me Why

Monday, May 16, 2022 - 10:52am

I don't like Mondays. I want to shoot the whole day down.

Let's hope that this week will be different from last week...or the week before that...or the week before that. It didn't start out particularly well. Did you catch this little beauty overnight? Nothing to see here, of course....

TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 13

Friday, May 13, 2022 - 4:50pm

It was another dreadful and dreary week, making four weeks in a row where the Comex digital metals have been pounded lower. Some small glimmers of hope have begun to appear, however, so let's wrap up this week and begin to look forward.

No links today. No screenshots of tweets, either...

Aw, Screw It

Friday, May 13, 2022 - 10:46am

Don't you feel that way, too? I mean, come on. The Comex precious metals have done nothing but go straight freaking down for weeks and, at some point, you feel like none of it even matters anymore. Which is precisely why we are now likely at an intermediate low.

In fact, I wouldn't be...

Thursday Conversation - Larry Lepard

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - 3:34pm

Larry Lepard is a Boston-based money manager and sound money advocate. He's also a longtime member of this site, going back to The Watchtower days so I think it's safe to say that you're going to enjoy this podcast.

Larry's day job is a money manager at Equity Management Associates in...

Powell's Black Hole

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - 10:49am

Unwittingly or not, The Fed has created a black hole of rising nominal rates and a rising POSX and this beast is now consuming nearly all "markets".

I'm a little late getting started because I spent some time this morning watching a press conference where some astronomers and...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, May 11

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - 5:45pm

The CPI has come and gone and now we await tomorrow's report on inflation at the producer/wholesale level. In between, the action in the PMs and mining shares was pretty uninspiring so the concern still exists that the lows are not yet least for Comex silver, the GDX and the GDXJ....

All Eyes on CPI

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - 10:26am

The investment world eagerly awaited today's latest US inflation update and it did not disappoint as price inflation continues to rage, destroying savings and incomes in its wake.

But I'm sure a few fed funds rate hikes will fix this... <eye roll>

Your latest CPI came in...

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/16

5/16 8:30 ET Empire Fed Manu Idx
5/16 9:00 ET Goon Williams
5/17 8:00 ET Goon Bullard
5/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
5/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
5/17 2:00 ET Chief Goon Powell
5/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
5/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/19 10:00 ET LEIII


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