The Latest from Batchelor and Cohen

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Last night's show didn't disappoint. The discussion began by addressing the Ukrainian gold situation (did you know that some people thought that Yanukovych stole it when he fled the country?) and then proceeded to bring us vital updates on all facets of the Ukraine Crisis.

Please be sure to give this podcast a thorough listen and keep in mind that John Batchelor hosts Professor Cohen every Tuesday evening at 10:00 pm EST. You can always find more information here:

On your way out, you should also check these latest links:



CPE's picture


Is there an ETF to get long the cold war yet?

Psychopaths everywhere

ArtL's picture

time to stack more

the drums of war keep beating.

InsAndArts's picture

Had To Take This 3rd Slot In The Postings

I will resist corny wordplay.

Looks like the PM markets have come alive, or 'they' took their boot off the throat of the metals.

China and Iran are doing military drills now? Sheesh. The Persians and the Middle Kingdom. Wow.

realitybiter's picture


lmt, rtn, lll, ba, they didn't call him daddy warbucks for nuthin.

It is ironic that in days of old, the Romans would use soldiers, swords, arrows, and horses, attack enemies, then transfer the enemies wealth to Rome.  Today, we use REALLY expensive munitions, bomb our enemies, then transfer the wealth from our taxpayers to the military industrial complex.......what am I missing?

Dyin aint much of a livin', Boy.

CPE's picture


at least folks are concerned about the real issues.

The one in the middle should run for president.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Be sure you listen from 25:00 on


And then read the last link I gave you from

cashonly's picture

US Army Sends 100 Tanks To Eastern Europe

US Army Sends 100 Tanks To Eastern Europe To Deter Russian Aggression

How anyone can't see that this is going to go hot is beyond me.  Then again they don't see the ponzi either.

Owtovit's picture

St Louis Turdite meetup

Off subject,

A couple of us Turdites are meeting up in St Louis in 26 Dec for a few brewskis should any other local (or not so local) Turdites fancy joining us PM me for details

Klingon's picture


You know things are getting bad (ala Dave from Denver) when you get an email from The Villages advertising 5% off on any of their 275 unsold houses. I live about 30 miles frm there and we looked before we purchased elsewhere and I calculated that houses there were at least 30% higher than similar about 1/2 hour away.

G-Rod's picture

At realitybiter ...what am I missing?

When an empire takes over a country it then extracts tribute from the defeated inhabitants.

What you are missing is who is the Empire, which country was taken over, and who are the defeated now paying tribute.

Sad isn't it.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Again, that ZH link is based


Again, that ZH link is based upon the original story from that I linked in this post. Please read either doesn't matter. What does matter is that you then listen to the podcast, beginning at about the 25:00 mark.

ivars's picture

Since war is inevitable

Since war is inevitable anyway ( whoever has caused provoked it) , I am very pleased with even 100 tanks on our side. Will delay first defeat for a few days..but in war it matters how you lose..otherwise you are not able to turn the tide later.

cashonly's picture

sorry Turd

I missed that link you posted when I posted the ZH article.  

I like the term "creeping escalation" from the podcast.  Exactly what is taking place.   Good post.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Trip wire


Notice the use of the term "tripwire" too...

Response to: sorry Turd
Turd Ferguson's picture

4thID moving into Poland


Great analogy to Pershing in Paris in 1917, too. This is NOT LOST on Russian historians.

ivars's picture

Get transcript or listen

Get transcript of or listen live Putin's speech tomorrow in Soviet Federacii. Speech will begin at 10 a.m. GMT. 

Somehow I feel though it will be robust for domestic audience, it won't be challenging enough to bring ruble lower and gold higher. Putin needs some time to prepare. Military bluffing ( knowing the weakness of democracy - same tactics as Hitler used) is not enough when economy is collapsing. Something needs to be done, and fast, but in those kind of changes ( e.g. monetary system) You do not tell about them in advance.  

SamSchlepps's picture

Very Interesting View on Southstream

The Importance Of The Cancellation Of South Stream by Alexander Mercouris

The reaction to the cancellation of the Sound Stream project has been a wonder to behold and needs to be explained very carefully. In order to understand what has happened it is first necessary to go back to the way Russian-European relations were developing in the 1990s.

Briefly, at that period, the assumption was that Russia would become the great supplier of energy and raw materials to Europe. This was the period of Europe's great “rush for gas” as the Europeans looked forward to unlimited and unending Russian supplies. It was the increase in the role of Russian gas in the European energy mix which made it possible for Europe to run down its coal industry and cut its carbon emissions and bully and lecture everyone else to do the same.

However the Europeans did not envisage that Russia would just supply them with energy. Rather they always supposed this energy would be extracted for them in Russia by Western energy companies. This after all is the pattern in most of the developing world. The EU calls this “energy security” - a euphemism for the extraction of energy in other countries by its own companies under its own control.

It never happened that way ....

James Crighton's picture

As usual...

a very interesting podcast from these two.



Nick Elway's picture

I didn't know of the Polar Bear Expedition

Sure enough, 


United States Army troops[1] that landed in Arkhangelsk, Russia as part of the Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War and fought the Red Army in the surrounding region during the period of September 1918 through July 1919.

I knew from Andrew Sutton that Wall Street (and Woodrow Wilson in particular)  supported the bolsheviks in the Russian revolution and caused Trotsky's release from Canada and gave Trotsky an American passport to get into Russia.

There's a present-day echo with US's support/creation of ISIS and then sending Americans to die fighting ISIS.


some people thought that Yanukovych stole it(gold) when he fled the country?

  I googled and there were some such accusations ($20 billion missing)  just before GATA/ZH pushed the March 7 Iskra story:

And where does the indictment of the Ukraine central banker fit in?

Interesting times

Bohemian's picture

@Nick Elway

"I knew from Andrew Sutton that Wall Street (and Woodrow Wilson in particular)  supported the bolsheviks in the Russian revolution and caused Trotsky's release from Canada and gave Trotsky an American passport to get into Russia."

Yeah, that's another Wikipedia BS article. ;-))) I wrote about it here once, so -- let me have some fun with it, again. Check this article for the reasons why Wilson sent the Navy over there. There are 3 reasons, and here are two of them:

1) mounting an offensive to rescue the Czech Legion, which was stranded along the Trans-Siberian Railroad

They were not stranded. ;-) They took over the entire Trans-Siberian Railroad and controlled Siberia and the Far East, but they had no intention to continue the fighting, under the French and British command, because -- French confiscated some Tsar's gold from Kolchak, without sending the ammo and military material, as agreed. So, the tie with the French and British command was broken by the Czechoslovak leadership in the U.S. You see, T.G. Masaryk, the first President of Czechoslovakia, was in charge of the Czechoslovak Foreign Legions, and he was in the U.S. then, his wife was an American.

2) resurrecting the Eastern Front by defeating the Red Army with the assistance of the Czech Legion and an expanded anti-Bolshevik force drawn from the local citizenry - and in the process stopping the spread of communism and of the Bolshevik cause in Russia.

No, these guys were troops of the Czechoslovak (not just Czech) Foreign Legions, and there was no significant, or direct U.S. military confrontation with the Bolshevik Red army, just an assistance to the leaving Czechoslovak Legions. Some left with the U.S. Navy, some used confiscated Russian boats and went to Europe directly.

Now, you might wonder why...? Why would Wilson send the U.S. Navy to assist some Czechs and Slovaks to leave Russia? What was so special about the Czechoslovak Foreign Legions? Well, among other things, and based on what we do know, THEY had all the Russian Tsar's gold !!! ;-))) That's what we know for 100%, no doubt about it. And from here, it just disappeared. POOOF !!! And it was gone. And it never reached Europe, either. I think I know how it was used, but that's another story.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Vandals desecrate WWII Red Army graves in Poland’s Bialystok

WARSAW, December 3 /TASS/. Vandals have desecrated a war cemetery in Bialystok, a city in eastern Poland, where Red Army soldiers who died liberating Poland from fascist occupants are buried, local police said on Wednesday, adding that criminal proceedings have been launched.

The local police press secretary noted that unknown vandals had dug out 26 tombstones with red stars from the ground and scattered them all over the cemetery’s territory. He did not say when exactly the act of vandalism, which was reported quite recently, had been committed.

The city authorities have temporarily relocated the tombstones to a city cemetery promising to return them to their old places when the weather improves.

The war cemetery was founded in Bialystok in 1944. It has hundreds of graves, some of which can be collective.

Well, that should calm tempers.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Transit air routes bypass Russia because of closed east Ukraine

MOSCOW, December 3. /TASS/. The number of transit flights across Russia’s airspace decreased by 11% from April to October this year, the Russian federal air transport agency (Rosaviatsia) said in a report.

Airliners fly over Russia on transit flights with stops at Russian airports or nonstop. There are transpolar, cross-polar, trans-Siberian, Asian and trans-eastern routes in Russia’s airspace.

The number of transit flights began to decline in April 2014, from 2.3% to 8.5% in July and 16% in August. The decrease reached 20% in October as compared to October of 2013.

An 11% decline was reported for seven months from April to October.

They have diverted the routes to southern regions from Russia because the airspace over eastern Ukraine is closed.

A Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 crashed in eastern Ukraine in July this year. The airspace is closed at all altitudes over the region.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Eurasian Economic Union set to abandon dollar, euro

MOSCOW, December 2. /TASS/. Transactions in dollars and euros could be banned within the member-states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) — Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia, the Izvestia newspaper reported on Tuesday.

The EEU countries could switch to national currencies (ruble, Belarusian ruble, Kazakhstani tenge and Armenian dram) in mutual payments by 2025-2030, the chairman of the board of directors of Russia’s National Payment Council, Alexander Murychev told the newspaper.

“It is necessary to raise a question before the national banks of the member-states on excluding the US dollar and the euro from interstate payment transactions,” said Murychev, detailing a concept for the EEU development, which was unveiled during a meeting in Kazan on Friday.

Statistics shows that around a half of mutual payment operations between the EEU member-states account for the US and the euro, thus increasing the dependence of the trade bloc on the foreign countries’ economies.

The new concept envisages that the EEU member-states should create a joint payment space allowing carrying out transactions with due regard to the compatibility of national card systems, including BelCard (Belarus), Armenian Card (Armenia) and their Russian counterpart, which is currently under development.

Natalya Burykina, who chairs a committee on financial market of the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, said the initiative of switching to the national currencies makes sense as the idea is to create a single economic space in the framework of the EEU, according to the report.

Eurasian Economic Union

The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is a new integration association, which will start functioning from January 1, 2015 instead of the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), which officially ceased to exist on October 10. The EEU members are currently Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Kyrgyzstan is expected to join the union soon.

The EEU accounts for one fifth of the world’s gas reserves and around 15% of oil.

The Treaty on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union was signed by the presidents of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan on May 29, 2014 in Astana. The agreement is the basic document defining the accords between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan for creating the Eurasian Economic Union for the free movement of goods, services, capital and workforce and conducting coordinated, agreed or common policies in key sectors of the economy, such as energy, industry, agriculture and transport.

The post-Soviet trade bloc based on the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan is expected to embrace a financial system worth $3 trillion. EEU member states’ mutual investments grew by 14% in 2013 from the previous year to $1.9 billion.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Ukraine appoints three non-native ministers

Ukrainian parliament has approved the formation of a new government that includes three foreigners who had received Ukrainian nationality on the same day specially for the job.

Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's president, granted citizenship to Georgia-born Aleksandr Kvitashvili, US-national Natalie Jaresko and Lithuanian Aivaras Abromavicius on Tuesday, just hours before the vote.

"There are absolutely extraordinary challenges facing Ukraine - an extremely difficult economic situation, Russian aggression, the need for radical reform and the fight against corruption. All this requires innovative solutions in the government," Poroshenko said in statement.

"These decisions mean searching for candidates for the new government not only in Ukraine but also abroad," he said.

Kvitashvili was appointed as Ukraine's health minister after serving for the same role in Georgia during 2008 and 2010.

Jaresko will serve as the country's finance minister. She has worked in Ukraine for more than 20 years after holding various economic positions in the US State Department.

Meanwhile, Abromavicius will take on a role of economy minister. 

Ukraine has been offered billions of dollars in aid by international lenders if it implements a programme of economic reform and Poroshenko said the administration would benefit from international specialist input.

Challenges ahead

The cabinet will be headed by 40-year-old Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who has served as prime minister since February.

Five political blocs, including Yatsenyuk's Popular Front party, last month formed a parliamentary coalition that has vowed to enact an agenda of radical economic and political reform.

"We are prepared for the most radical and toughest changes in this country. This mission will be completed," Yatsenyuk said in a speech in parliament before the vote on the Cabinet.

Yatsenyuk said social assistance spending had been reduced by $300m this year and that the trend was set to continue.

Tasks to be completed by the incoming government before year's end include bringing in laws to give more budget-raising powers to local authorities and reducing the number of taxes, Yatsenyuk said.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Western sanctions, ruble crash hit Russians hard

MOSCOW (AP) — Oyster Bar built a thriving business serving mollusks to well-heeled Muscovites. Then came Western sanctions, and the restaurant was forced to rechristen itself this fall. Today, it serves up burgers and pizza under a new name: No Oyster Bar.

Co-owner Ilya Sokhin said a Russian ban on European oyster imports hit hard, and the average check at his restaurant — a sleek new building in the famous Gorky Park — has more than halved.

Russia's economy has been battered this year by uncertainty over the conflict in Ukraine, the falling price of oil, Western sanctions and retaliatory Russian import bans. Poor and middle-class Russians are increasingly challenging government insistence that a 40 percent drop in the value of the ruble — now worth a record low of 54 to the dollar — will affect mainly the rich.

Approval ratings have so far remained high for President Vladimir Putin, who has staked the reputation on Russia's reemergence as an economic powerhouse after the turbulent 1990s. But Putin, who will give his annual state of the nation address on Thursday, faces growing anger from middle-class families and even poorer Russians as their quality of life declines.

Mikhail Antonov, a 27-year-old manager at a children's goods store, had saved up this year to drive with friends from Moscow to Germany, and spend a week visiting Christmas markets and the countryside. But the 30,000 rubles he has saved up have gone from being worth 670 euros ($830) at the start of the year to less than 450 euros ($560) today, and he has canceled the trip.

"This would have been my first trip abroad and my girlfriend and I had saved up," he said. "Now because of the situation in Europe and Ukraine, everything has gotten more expensive and our savings have been reduced to nothing."

According to Vladimir Kantorovich, vice president of Russia's Tour Operator Association, travel abroad for the winter holidays is down 30 percent, and trips to Europe have fallen about 50 percent. On Wednesday, Russia's flagship airline, Aeroflot, hiked its ruble-denominated prices by 15 percent.

Olga Kupriyanova, a 35-year-old law professor at Moscow State University, says her family of four feels the pinch particularly when it comes to putting food on the table. Inflation is estimated to reach 10 percent by early next year, and food is rising fastest. According to the Federal Statistics Service, chicken costs 27 percent more than it did last year, pork 25 percent, and the beloved staple of buckwheat 48 percent. Russians on average spend about 30 percent of their income on food, compared with 6.7 percent in the United States.

"We've started to economize on food, but nonetheless because of rising prices our expenses have grown by about 10 percent," said Kupriyanova, who has replaced red meat with chicken and cut most cheese and fish out of the family's diet.

Russia's economic woes stem from a trifecta of problems. First, oil and gas exports, which finance half of Russia's budget, have been hit by the plummet in world markets: the global price of crude oil has fallen some 25 percent since the summer. Renaissance Capital analyst Oleg Kouzmin says if prices stay there, Russia could see its economy shrink by 3 percent next year.

Second, Russia's banks, which were slapped with sanctions this summer as a response to Moscow's role in Ukraine, have to pay off $90 billion in external debt before the end of 2015, which is becoming harder by the day as the ruble loses value. The central bank had tried to support the ruble but after spending $29 billion in October alone it gave up and floated the currency last month.

Finally, Russia banned Western meat, dairy, vegetables and fruit this summer in response to the sanctions, helping drive the steep spike in prices.

On Tuesday, Russia's economic development ministry revised its economic forecast for 2015, predicting a drop of 0.8 percent instead of 1.2 percent growth. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said the sanctions are costing Russia $40 billion a year, and falling oil prices another $90-$100 billion.

Politicians and state-run television have pushed a narrative that only the rich will be affected by the depreciation of the ruble. But slowing growth and rising inflation have affected average Russians like Kupriyanova and Antonov, who both earn less than the average Moscow salary of 50,000 rubles a month, now worth about $925.

"Politicians are trying to make the best of the situation, but this attacks low-income households more than middle- and high-income households," said Konstantin Sonin, an economist at Moscow's Higher School of Economics. "They spend more on consumption and food, and they are the most vulnerable."

Putin's ratings remain high, with a recent poll by the independent Levada Center showing over 50 percent of Russians would vote for him if elections were held tomorrow. But he is coming under increasing pressure to act.

One joke making the rounds on Russian social media: "What do Putin, the price of oil, and the ruble have in common? They'll all hit 63 next year."

ivars's picture

Would not a war be a great

Would not a war be a great think for bankers in terms of creating inflationary environment for limited period of time where lending can happen again. It goes approx like this:

Would not then a great war help; war accomplishes following :

1) it produces weapons and wages are paid to labor but there are no goods produced that labor can buy. That creates more money less goods= inflation in prices

2) War reduces number of people- reduces unemployment- pressure on salaries= inflation

3) World destroys assets like real estate, infrastructure, productive assets, labor. The more there are destroyed ( that is the reasons allies bombed German cities into the ground. Imagine Saudi oil infrastructure destroyed. Both inflationary and incredible opportunity to lend into rebuilding.

4) So..the only question is how big war moves deflation away for how much time. As money supply grows exponentially, destruction must also grow exponentially. Say WWII provided inflationary environment for about 50 years before problems began and need for bubbles appeared. 

I know only human costs, but asset destruction can also be found. So this how Rocks and Roths see the picture:

a) in WWI - 12 million dead, 20 million wounded, 15 years of inflation ( up to 1930) 
b) in WWII- 73 million dead, possibly 100 million wounded, 50 years of inflation ( up to say 1995 when problems with lending started so Attack on Yugoslavia wa initiated as well as NATO expansion) 
c) WWIII in planning stages - for 20 years of inflation should be around >250 million dead. And that will only give 20 years. I may be mistaken, but definitely not less then 250 million which means around 400 million wounded to get inflationary environment where lending creates growth again. From ashes. The more dead there are, plus of course asset destruction, the longer inflationary PEACE period will continue. And of course it will be the warring nations who will pay the bill, also interest on new lending. So the USA will stay out of WWIII as long as possible after having initiated this. I anm 100% sure USA will not fight neither in Europe nor in China. Middle East though is different as soon as Israel gets involved. But that should be in latter stages of conflict. 

So planning has happened how to achieve this, and now is execution phase. 

mfields111's picture

Russia pivots East

It is the above comment by Stephen Cohen which stands out in this podcast.  The west is starving while the Eurasian zone is consolidating. The US policies are causing this shift in Russia which will make any consideration of rebuilding the West impossible for fifty years or more and antagonizing Russia in order to prevent the decline of the West by a few days or weeks will make the rebuilding later almost impossible.  These leaders in the government are doing everything in their power to make our children's lives worse than they would otherwise have to be.  They are thinking that they will start a war as a way out of their economic crisis but based upon the clearly deliberate careful policies of the Eurasian zone countries especially China and Russia, they are not succeeding at getting even that accomplished .  No, Putin is not going to be goaded into a war in Ukraine, no there is no war coming out of the Middle East and now even the attempts to set up a military state in the United States are turning against these incompetent leaders.  All they are doing is dissembling the credibility of government in the US as they are seen by the people in this country and in the world as incompetent, cruel and self serving.  As Dr Cohen has said:' I wish we could have a dialogue amongst different viewpoints here but we can't. ' As the leaders fight to retain power they give up all that power everyday by their thoughtlessness.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

WWIII May Have Just Started In Vienna

Once again: Vienna at heart of global crisis


In this editorial, The Local's Paul Gillingwater argues that a new great European war may have just indirectly been triggered by events at OPEC in Austria - for the third time.

Delegates to the latest round of talks by the OPEC oil cartel regularly visit Vienna to discuss setting price levels and production quotas for its twelve member countries - but they are likely to have missed the geopolitical implications of their decision to keep levels unchanged.

It's been 100 years since the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the imperial throne of the Austro-Hungarian empire in Sarajevo, which triggered an unfortunate series of events that led to the first of two devastating wars in the 20th century.

The plan behind the assassination, carried out by Serbian nationalists, was to break away the South-Slav provinces of Austria into a greater Yugoslavia.

Otto von Bismarck, the great statesman who united Germany in 1871, said towards the end of his life that "One day, the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans."  He was right.

A generation later, after millions of deaths, another Austrian led the united Germany and Austria into the second Great World War, leaving even more millions dead.  

Pundits have suggested Hitler's rejection from an art school in Vienna might have indirectly contributed to his rise as a leader, although the punishing sanctions and reparations against Germany may have had something to do with it.

And this month in Vienna, nearly 70 years after the end of that war, Austria was again the backdrop for a decision which may in time lead to the next great European war, one which is already simmering in Ukraine and occupied Crimea.

Oil prices plummet

OPEC, the largely middle-East oil cartel made the decision last week to maintain its oil production at current levels.  On the surface, this seems like an innocuous bureaucratic action, but certain factors suggest otherwise.

The current conflict in Ukraine, in which a civil war is apparently being fueled by 'holidaying' soldiers from Russia, is stirring nationalistic feelings across greater Europe, and especially in the former Soviet Union.

Most of the OPEC members who left the table were unhappy with the result. Maintaining the current production level among OPEC members of 30 million barrels per day, coupled with the increasing shale-oil production originating from the US, as well as falling demand means that oil prices are plummeting.

OPEC’s ultimately misguided attempts to take back control of the market are doomed to failure, as the US sees a clear strategic aim in collapsing prices.  

Possibly in consultation with its close ally Saudi Arabia, which also benefits indirectly from soft prices, the US is essentially using the global oil price as a stick to beat Russia, as punishment for its engagement in the Ukrainian adventure, likely hoping to curtail President Putin’s return to an imperialist mindset.

Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia will most likely be hardest hit, as the price of oil, which has dropped more than 30 percent since June, is well below the sustainable break-even point for each country, with Russia needing $107 per barrel to maintain a balanced budget moving into 2015.

Sanctions begin to bite

The announcement this week that Putin sees no future in the planned Southern Stream pipeline, which would bring Russian gas to central and western Europe via a route that bypasses troubled Ukraine, is a clear sign that Russia is being confronted on several levels. 

With Russia’s economy flagging in the face of tough European and US economic sanctions, and having burned through billions of currency reserves trying to prop up its collapsing currency, many western states see this as an appropriate response to put pressure on Putin to curb his Ukrainian adventurism, and thereby hope to bring peace to a newly troubled Europe.

In my view, this is a mistake, and a dangerous miscalculation.

Bear trap

Placing the Russian bear into such a trap, where a beleaguered Putin is cornered by oligarchs concerned at the loss of their wealth, and a deeply dissatisfied populace fed up with a collapsing economy, is a strategy doomed to fail.

Nationalism will trump economics, as Russia will place the blame for its flagging economy on the oil war which is winding up the economic tension.  Echoes of the reparations against a post-World-War-I Germany will be heard as the drum beat of increasing sanctions against a more belligerent Russia is heard across Europe.

As a master of judo, Putin knows how to use the strength of his adversaries against themselves.  Without knowing the specifics, it is apparent to many that Russia’s response to this apparent Western aggression will not be as European bureaucrats and President Obama’s inept foreign policy pundits are hoping.

Eventually, this action may lead to a series of escalations, and possibly provocations - as we see daily tests of European defenses by Russian military aircraft - which could lead inexorably into a third great European War.

If Bismarck was alive today, he may well chide OPEC for performing this century’s “damned foolish thing” - with Austria once again in the eye of the storm.

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