Putting Monday In The Books

It seems like I've got a whole bunch of stuff to cover with you but not much time to do it in. Let's get started.

First up...We've been waiting since Friday to get a peak at the open interest numbers. They were released on schedule this afternoon and below is a C&P of the summary I wrote in the comments section of the previous blog post. Always keep in mind that the OI data are 24 hours delayed so the numbers released today are as of the close Comex close back on Friday.

"Unlike the past couple of weeks, the numbers from Friday present a cloudy and confusing picture and they are going to require some guesswork on my part.
Let's start with silver because that was the number I was waiting for. Remember that Friday was a huge day in silver, up about $1.20 on the Comex and something like $1.60 by the close of the Globex. I was looking for a rise of just 500-1000 contracts because I felt the rally was primarily EE short-covering. If the rally was Sprott-induced, it should have been about 4000-5000 contracts. The actual number was 2350 as total OI rose from 102,055 to 104,406. Hmmm. What does this mean? Upon review and reflection, I think I am wrong and everyone else is right. 2350 is a lot of new open interest, particularly considering where OI is now versus April last year and taking into account the outrageous margin levels.
I think this implies a further rally in silver. A good rush of new money based upon the strong, Sprott fundamentals. $33 should only be a "speedbump" and silver should, instead, move toward $35 and onto the Battle Royale line near $37. Much more on this in the next blog post.
Now onto gold, which is even more strange. Gold was up almost $10 on Friday and had been seemingly capped and held below 1666 for about the 5th straight session. If this was indeed the case, we should have seen total gold OI continue to rise. Instead, total OI dropped by nearly 3000 contracts! This does smell like the short-covering I expected to see in silver. So what does this mean? Basically that Friday was an anomoly. The Cartel had indeed given up on holding the 1666 line and was intent on pulling back to a higher level. Thus we see the rise today that has outpaced silver and taken gold up toward 1680. From here, I expect a further rally on Happy Tuesday before The Cartel reasserts itself and attempts to stop gold dead in its tracks between 1690 and 1705."

So, why am I concerned about 1690-1705 in gold? The charts below will show you:

paper_1-23pmgoldd.jpgpaper_1-23pmgoldd2.jpg

Silver has its own resistance to deal with. However, if I'm right about the "Sprott Effect", silver should soon move decisively through 33 and head toward 35.50. From there it will tackle the main trendline connecting the April and September highs. Once/if it gets through there, its Katy bar the door!

paper_1-23pmsilvd.jpgpaper_1-23pmsilvd2.jpg

And, if anyone is wondering, lease rates continue to improve. The only negative rate now is the 1-month and all of the other rates are close to their 12-month highs. While not necessarily a short-term positive for gold, it definitely isn't a negative.

paper_1-23pmlease.jpg

Those looking/hoping for QE3 should continue to closely monitor the declining POSX and U.S. treasuries. Right now, both are beginning to give indications that overt QE may be coming sooner rather than later.

paper_1-23pm10yr.jpgpaper_1-23pm30yr.jpg

paper_1-23pmpig.jpg

OK, here are some important items for you to review in the overnight hours. First up, Ranting Andy wrote up a terrific summary for his daily email today. You should read the entire thing:

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=n7vdaxbab&v=0014hlzXZJE_jvBSAyuEIJSNosbfHBuimmsa3do4qs2LnusZ7a4eQKqgg2V8mkebZ9jAjil_gyR5j4SuPE5A4fJoPA-lZ-kpbu7PcKawsfrBUWKovaiiFkOvw%3D%3D

Our buddy, Jim Quinn, has filed another interesting article. It can be found here:

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=26210

We spent some time discussing the plunging Baltic Dry Index rate today. I suppose that every index has its nuances that effect how it changes over time...but...a drop of 50% in less than a month should get your attention, regardless. Also note that, at 860, the index is now at its lowest level since 2008.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Another item we covered in detail in the comments today was the story of India purchasing Iranian oil with gold instead of dollars. Here's another c&p of what I typed earlier:

Yes, Iran will likely exchange some of the gold for other things like gasoline. Some of the gold. Some. The main thing is this:

  • Less global demand for dollars. Less demand + more supply = downward price (gold positive)
  • India will certainly act to purchase gold to replenish supply "spent" on Iranian oil (gold positive)
  • Another step on the path toward dollar irrelevance as reserve currency (gold positive)

And here is the original story from debka. If you don't like debka as a source, this was first reported on ZH about a year ago.

http://www.debka.com/article/21673/

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/india-offers-pay-iran-oil-gold

ZH printed this chart earlier today. I think it's fantastic! Note where 1913 falls on the chart (if you can't tell, it's about right in the middle):

large_world_crises.jpg

Along those lines, a Turdite sent me this, which is pretty cool:

http://greshams-law.com/2012/01/22/a-century-of-b-s-fed/

And, lastly, our new buddy Jeff Nielson (I hope you enjoyed the podcast) just posted his latest missive on silver. You should be sure to take the time to read this, too.

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=23894:exposing-silver-mythology-part-i&catid=49:silver-commentary&Itemid=130

OK, that's probably enough for now. We made it through Monday. What will tomorrow bring? I can't wait to find out!!

TF

Comments

Thefreeman's picture

Portuguese Government Bond Market Halts Amid Uncertainty In Gree

Portuguese Government Bond Market Halts Amid Uncertainty In Greece

-- Trading in Portuguese government bonds dries up

-- ECB buying, liquidity injection for banks acts as only driver

-- Uncertainty over Greek restructuring package poses questions for Portugal

-- Portugal's CDS keep climbing to fresh records

By Nick Cawley and Art Patnaude Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Trading in Portuguese government bonds has virtually ground to a halt in recent days, as market participants await clarity on the Greek debt-restructuring deal for how it may effect Portugal's future funding costs.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120123-707044.html

ClinkinKY's picture

Not first

"Un uh, not gonna do it" (in Dana Carvey, impersonating Poppy Bush voice)

"Never mind " (in Gilda Radner -Emily Littela voice)

dgstage's picture

Max Keiser & Gonzalo Lira

If anyone has interest there is a interview of Gonzalo Lira on On The Edge.

alphamorph's picture

Euphoria

Keep a lid on the euphoria.  Yes, war is a game changer and yes, India/China/Russia trading directly with Iran (some in gold - none in US$) makes a HUGE difference but remember that
this is how things looked at the end of last week....
* Total commercial net short position increased by 1300 contracts, to 20,400 contracts, maybe more.
* The total commercial net short silver position increased for the third straight week, as prices rose (which is the norm).
* Over the past month, the concentrated net short position in COMEX silver futures of the 4 largest commercials has increased by 3500 contracts, or 12.5%, to 31,500 contracts, a cause for grave concern.
* The technical funds and other speculators, have mostly bought back shorts and have not added to longs so far.

They're still there... just like the boogey men/women they are.

ReachWest's picture

Acceleration?

Is it just me, or do things seem to be accelerating?

Great stuff Turd regarding the OI numbers. I wonder if this really is a "Sprott" (or similar) investor of size that is taking on the Cartel re Silver. I think it's risky for him to do so. (By that, I mean - would they really deliver?). Either way, though, it sounds bullish for price, and the lease rate data would appear to be pointing in the same direction. Acceleration??

Here is another Cartoon newscast. (In this episode, we talk about Davos, the FOMC meeting, Obama's State of the Union and the Iranian Central Bank.)

See video
bestever's picture

Would hate to be stuck in ZSL

Would hate to be stuck in ZSL for the move that's coming... 

IndigoStar7's picture

Thanks big yellow hatted one

Something out of the blue seems likely in this gold/silver market at some point soon. Just wait until PAGE or something along those lines opens up.

We seem overdue for some type of Chinese news. The Year of the Dragon seems like as good a time as any for something dramatic to come forth from China.  Something market rattling.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3172/daily-dphaze-news-machine

tniutnia's picture

where is HUI and the miners

where is HUI and the miners in all of this?

Thanks.

goldenbear's picture

ZH Article

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/india-offers-pay-iran-oil-gold

Actually I think its a year old. Same stuff though.

Bay of Pigs's picture

ZH article

No, that would be a year and two weeks ago.

Be Prepared's picture

EU to ban all trade in gold with Iran

Reuters report that the EU has agreed to freeze the assets of the Iranian central bank and ban all trade in gold and other precious metals with the Iranian Central Bank and other public bodies in Iran.

According to IMF data, at the last official count (in 1996), Iran had reserves of just over 168 tonnes of gold. The FT reported in March 2011 that Iran has bought large amounts of bullion on the international market to diversify away from the dollar, citing a senior Bank of England official.

Currency wars continue and are deepening.

I don't think this will stop India from sending 226 Metric Tonnes of Gold to Iran for oil......  China and the Asian Trading Block won't honor this "ban" as well.  It seems that we are really trying to kill the U.S. Dollar with more vigor this year.... Thanks, Prez. Obummer... you doin' a might fine job....

In one corner.... we have the Asian trading bloc.... and the other corner..... the fading Western bloc.... who will win?  Everyone knows but we're playing it like its not a fait accompli.

ReachWest's picture

@DPH

DrkPurpleHaze - Just wanted to let you know I'm enjoying checking your "Daily DPHaze News Machine" Forum. I don't know how you do it - but that's a phenomenal collection of the latest news and info, from a multitude of sources. 

It's part of my daily read list!

SuperLeggera's picture

GATA’s Bill Murphy, Chris Powell interviewed

Fresh from a packed presentation on “GATA’s Tremendous Year in 2011,” Chairman Bill Murphy and Secretary-Treasurer Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee answer some questions.

http://resourceclips.com/2012/01/23/no-more-tinfoil-hats/

Irene's picture

SilverSeek.com’s 3rd Virtual Silver Investment Conference

Tuesday • January 31 • Eastern Time Zone
10:00am David Morgan                10:30am Endeavour Silver
11:00am Extorre Gold Mines       11:30am James Turk
12:00pm First Majestic Silver      12:30pm Huldra Silver
  1:00pm   Julian Phillips                 1:30pm   BREAK
  2:00pm Eric Sprott
  3:00pm SilverCrest Mines            3:30pm Great Panther Silver

FREE you just need to pre-register

https://seek.6connex.com/portal/goldsilver/login

ClinkinKY's picture

In Other Words---"Yes"

 Carney Asked if ‘Saul Alinsky Portrait’ Is Hanging in the White House

 

Fox News Ed Henry Asks Jay Carney if Barack Obama Displays Saul Alinsky Portrait in White HouseDuring a White House press briefing on Monday, Fox News’ Ed Henry asked Press Secretary Jay Carney if the White House displays a portrait of Saul Alinsky for its staff to look up to. Carney’s answer was less than direct, and would seem to hint that there just might be something to the Alinsky portrait rumors.

“I wonder if you could clear something up,” Henry began.

“Newt Gingrich keeps saying on the campaign trail that the President’s vision comes from Saul Alinsky, the community organizer. I haven’t heard you asked about him but… Is there some kind of portrait of him hanging up in the White House that people look up to or is this BS?”

“Look,” Carney said. “The President’s background as a community organizer is well documented in his own books. His experience in that field contributed to who he is today. But his experiences abroad also included alot of other areas in his life. So I’ll just leave it at that.”

Nick Elway's picture

Wall Chart Financial Crises

I went searching for the full-size chart.  It is available as a 36 x 18 inch wall poster!

If you click on the poster image you can zoom in, pan,  and read everything.

https://www.historyshots.com/FinancialCrisis/index.cfm

Turdle GG's picture

Silver spot price anomaly

Thanks again Turd.

For about 20 minutes (maybe more), Bloomberg has been showing a spot silver price about 20c to 30c above my broker's feed price.  It fell down to the right price, jumped up again, and is now back to where it should be.

It may be nothing, but have never seen this before.

IndigoStar7's picture

Thanks ReachWest

Appreciate that! cool

See video
IndigoStar7's picture

When the Levee Breaks (in Au/Ag)

ClinkinKY's picture

Couldn't Resist:)

ClinkinKY's picture

Dodd Looking For A Hollywood "Waitress Sandwich"? (Google It)

 

Dodd's Disgrace: Shilling For SOPA

  •  

Christopher Dodd

Former Sen. Chris Dodd, now chairman of the Motion Picture Association of America, with Jim Gianopoulus, CEO of Fox Filmed Entertainment, in April 2011.

We plain people of Connecticut would be well advised to limit the activities of U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, simply because we cannot afford to have another current or former senator join the ranks of the intensely disliked.

The Lieberman Problem has been lavishly chronicled in this space. Last week, it was former Sen. Chris Dodd's turn to ooze, Jabba-like, into the spotlight and croak unpalatable nonsense while decent people looked on, horrified.

Dodd now pulls down $1.2 million as the front man for the lobbying arm of the movie industry. As Salon's Glenn Greenwald pointed out last week, this would seem to fly in the face of his 2010 avowal that he would do no lobbying.

http://www.courant.com/news/opinion/hc-op-mcenroe-dodds-fall-to-movie-industry-shill-0-20120122,0,3320032.column

IndigoStar7's picture

Clink

Lol!  I knew there must be some sort of reason.   

ClinkinKY's picture

Who knew?--My Senator is a "terrorist"

It's almost like Jay Carney expected this question and was reading from a script:)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

See video
Turd Ferguson's picture

Sorry about that

MODERATOR

Bad Turd. Turd moving too fast. Turd not taking two seconds to confirm date of ZH story. Turd dope.

Thanks for keeping me on the ball!

Response to: ZH Article
Be Prepared's picture

Police Use of GPS Devices Limited by U.S. Supreme Court

Police Use of GPS Devices Limited by U.S. Supreme Court

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Supreme Court for the first time limited police power to track people using GPS devices, ruling in a case that will shape the privacy rights Americans should expect from a new generation of wireless electronics.

Today's decision addresses the unprecedented power that technology is giving police to peer into Americans' day-to-day activities. The ruling, which centered on a global-positioning system device officers attached to a drug suspect's car, may also affect mobile phones and other technologies.

The decision means that police in many cases will need a warrant to track suspects using GPS, even as the court's divided reasoning left the exact parameters of that constitutional requirement unclear. The justices unanimously overturned the conviction of Antoine Jones, who was found guilty of running a narcotics trafficking operation out of his nightclub in Washington. They splintered into three camps in their reasoning.

"Law enforcement is now on notice that almost any use of GPS electronic surveillance of a citizen's movement will be legally questionable unless a warrant is obtained in advance," said Walter Dellinger, a Washington lawyer who represented Jones in the case.

Five justices faulted police for the act of attaching the GPS to Jones' car without a valid warrant. Writing for the group, Justice Antonin Scalia said officers "encroached on a protected area," when they "physically occupied private property for the purpose of obtaining information." <Article Here>

NOW, if only the U.S. Supreme Court would strike down NDAA and Patriot Act provisions which nullify our Constitutional Rights!

SRV - ES339's picture

Tragically Hip

Thanks for the video DrkPurpleHaze!

Never could understand how this great Canadian band never caught on in the rest of the world... btw, for those not aware, New Orleans is Sinking was recorded a few years before Katrina... kinda spooky but a great tune!

IndigoStar7's picture

Rock & Stock Stats

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/industrial-mans-gold

Rock & Stock Stats Last One Month Ago One Year Ago
Gold 1,655.00 1,598.00 1,372.00
Silver 30.79 28.78 29.32
Copper 3.79 3.30 4.36
Oil 100.39 93.88 90.85
Gold Producers (GDX) 52.15 51.17 55.47
Gold Junior Stocks (GDXJ) 26.70 24.84 35.76
Silver Stocks (SIL) 22.42 20.55 23.30
TSX  (Toronto Stock Exchange) 12,380.69 11,539.70 13,439.04
TSX Venture 1,554.20 1,407.39 2,285.02
Be Prepared's picture

Obama to Use Pension Funds of Ordinary Americans

Obama to Use Pension Funds of Ordinary Americans to Pay for Bank Mortgage “Settlement”

Obama’s latest housing market chicanery should come as no surprise. As we discuss below, he will use the State of the Union address to announce a mortgage “settlement” by Federal regulators, and at least some state attorneys general. It’s yet another gambit designed to generate a campaign talking point while making the underlying problem worse.

The president seems to labor under the misapprehension that crimes by members of the elite must be swept under the rug because prosecuting them would destablize the system. What he misses is that we are well past the point where coverups will work, and they may even blow up before the November elections. If nothing else, his settlement pact has a non-trivial Constitutional problem which the Republicans, if they are smart, will use to undermine the deal and discredit the Administration.

To add insult to injury, Obama is apparently going to present his belated Christmas present to the banking industry as a boon to ordinary citizens. He refused to appoint a real middle class advocate, Elizabeth Warren, to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, but he’s not above stealing her talking points.

We and other commentators have discussed how the mortgage settlement negotiations nominally led by Iowa attorney general Tom Miller had descended into farce. Almost nothing the Miller camp said was believable. They were presented as “attorney general” discussions when the Administration was pulling the strings. They’ve described a deal as weeks away for over a year. They kept claiming that they had undertaken investigations when not a single subpoena was issued by the AGs still involved in the negotiations. They’ve argued from the get go that a pact will be good for homeowners when the deal reached by under-resourced Nevada attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto with a single servicer, Saxon, resulted in a payout that is 10 to 20 times what the Administration is calling a victory. And that assumes that the banks will live up to their side of the deal when past settlements of servicing abuses have shown that they don’t.

The administration has finally woken up to the fact that the housing mess is almost certain to get worse before it gets better, and Obama must therefore be armed with better propaganda. The Miller-led talks have become a bit of an embarrassment and needed to be put out of their misery. So Team Obama and Federal banking regulators have agreed on terms and as we discussed last Friday, are upping the pressure on state attorneys general to fall into line. As reported by Shahien Nasiripour of the Financial Times:

Banks and government negotiators have cleared a big hurdle in efforts to resolve allegations of widespread mortgage-related misdeeds, agreeing on terms for a settlement that are being circulated to the 50 US states for approval, state officials and a bank representative say.

The proposed pact would potentially reduce mortgage balances and monthly payments by more than $25bn for distressed US homeowners…

State prosecutors have already received a set of documents detailing new mortgage servicing standards that the banks and the government negotiators have agreed to. The states were also being sent documents detailing other main components of the deal, such as the liability release for the banks, the so-called “menu” of options describing the various forms of aid to be given to borrowers, as well as the precise language of the so-called “most favoured nation” clause, which spells out how participating states in the deal would be eligible to receive more advantageous terms should a holdout state strike a more favourable deal on its own with the five targeted banks.

The story did not outline terms, but previous leaks have indicated that the bulk of the supposed settlement would come not in actual monies paid by the banks (the cash portion has been rumored at under $5 billion) but in credits given for mortgage modifications for principal modifications. There are numerous reasons why that stinks. The biggest is that servicers will be able to count modifying first mortgages that were securitized toward the total. Since one of the cardinal rules of finance is to use other people’s money rather than your own, this provision virtually guarantees that investor-owned mortgages will be the ones to be restructured. Why is this a bad idea? The banks are NOT required to write down the second mortgages that they have on their books. This reverses the contractual hierarchy that junior lienholders take losses before senior lenders. So this deal amounts to a transfer from pension funds and other fixed income investors to the banks, at the Administration’s instigation.  <Rest of the Article>

IndigoStar7's picture

Tim Thomas

I'm glad I took the time to read that.

I like Thomas as a goaltender and I really like him know as a person. Way to go Tim!

Someone might want to tweet him (or whatever) about TMFR.  It sounds like he'd probably respond.

thesandbox's picture

Fannie/Freddy come clean with QE $ number....$750B?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46090589/

"The regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac told lawmakers that forcing the two mortgage firms to write down loan principal would require more than $100 billion in fresh taxpayer funds....

About 22 percent of U.S. homes have negative equity totaling about $750 billion, according to CoreLogic."

seems that would be the number needed to pump back in just to get back to even...let alone the inflated numbers used for all those home equity loans that propped up the GDP.

coindeals's picture

Game ON

It is interesting to watch people watch a world-wide financial crisis unfold and take no action whatsoever to protect themselves from what they know is coming and the outcome which is so crystal clear. I am always surprised at how much people are aware of the crises and the issues, yet hope someone else will fix it.

Whenever a discussion arises about the economic malaise arises it quickly evolves into blaming the Republicans and Bush or the Democrats and Obama or the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the political push to expand home ownership under Clinton or Greenspan or Bernanke or Trichet or Hu or (I would name the leader of Japan but it would fill 8 pages to list them all for the last decade). No one takes responsibility themselves or wonders about where the legendary can kicked down the road winds up or what it means for them.

We all know that Greece cannot pay the debts that have been accumulated. Nor can Portugal. Nor can Ireland. Nor can Hungary (which along with Argentina are at the forefront of governments who have seized their citizens pension funds setting a precedent for predatory bureaucrats world-wide). Nor can Spain. Nor can France. Nor can the United States. Nor can Japan.  The reason the debts in Greek have not been restructured is because no one can agree on the percentage that the holders of the debt will accept “voluntarily”. The 50% default agreed upon only drops Greek debt to 120% of GDP from 180%, both levels of which are unsustainable, so the write-down must be much larger to drop to a level where the debt can be paid and the interest as well. A number as high as 70% has been suggested. The catch is that the debt-holders won’t accept it and if the default then becomes involuntary it triggers Credit Default Swaps and other derivatives which then become the responsibility of the parties that underwrote the debt instruments to begin with.

No one will advance Greece any more money (sic!) until this issue has been settled. With huge numbers of Euro coming due in the near future, the cradle of democracy must receive this funding to roll-over the debt and negate the deflationary contractions to the balance sheets of the holders. If you hold the debt, your gamble is that if the “insurance, the hedge, the safety-net” is triggered that the party who sold you the coverage (and collect the premiums for that protection and took it as income) can pay. The reason you would not trigger this clause is because if they cannot your write-off goes to 100%, not limited to whatever number is agreed upon. You have figured out how to live with 50%, more becomes a problem for your balance sheet. You also know the CDS are worthless-the major banks of Germany, France and the UK are holding this debt and HFT hedge funds  bursting in and out trying to make a short-term, highly-leveraged .1% are all players-and add the major US gamblers with customer deposits who hold the vast majority of the $707 trillion in nominal derivatives all trying to squeeze fees and trading profits out of the circumstances on the premise that the US Government, the Fed , the ECB, the Water district of Poughkeepsie will absorb the paper and make them whole (logical, because this is how it has worked so far).

This story will play-out in each of the crises mentioned and more besides which are awaiting their 15 minutes of fame. Each of these stories have their  happy-endings predicated on their economies growing at a faster rate than their interest costs are rising, without adding any new debt or growing the principle amount owed on which the interest can be paid, so that tax revenues (and collections) can increase to reverse the spiral.  Reinhardt and Rogoff have chronicled how this turns out in This Time It’s Different and have shown that the serial defaulters seem to be able to repeat this performance every 30-60 years. The debt  is always “paid” by default.

In Currency Wars, James Rickards has detailed how every government seeks to find growth through exports and how each government than seeks to protect their own markets while seeking access to others. Neither of these brief synopses do justice to the depth, breadth and insights of these two books, which are really essential reading for investors hoping to survive.  An insight repeated frequently in Currency Wars is that when your currency becomes worthless, the assets held in that currency become valueless as well.

Let’s now make you a citizen in Athens, deposits in a Greek bank-the rising tide of sentiment now seems to be that Greece will default, withdraw from the Euro, and reinstitute the drachma-immediately converting all the Euro debts to drachma and “pay off” the debts with the new currency. Your Euros when converted to drachma will have a small fraction of their current purchasing power. Do you just sit there and wait for this to happen? Multiply this by the number of crises and the number of people who will be seeking safe-haven and think about what a safe-haven is in the context of devaluing currencies.

Let’s bring this closer to home-foreign holdings (read primarily China and Japan) of US Treasuries are dropping every month. The supposed safest entity in the world, and an increasingly risky world, and fewer are being held by those who own the most. The debt is being financed by the Federal Reserve and computer blips. China has just worked out deals with Japan so that the trade will be done in yen and renmimbi instead of the Reserve Currency of World, the US Dollar. China has eliminated the dollar in trade with Iran (one of their key oil suppliers). Iran and Russia have eliminated the dollar. The drop in usage for the dollar drops the demand which lowers the value which increases your cost at the gas pump. It also puts and keeps those dollars in circulation.

Other countries that have positive balances of trade, and , consequently, pile up dollars are finding means to protect themselves against the policies, regardless of administration, which lead to a cheaper dollar to get that doubling of exports in 5 years that President Obama is striving for, and diminish the value of their holdings.

Central banks are buying gold..this is all easily documented by country and trends plotted..and buying with increasing frequency and in increasing amounts and buying them with dollars..which puts the dollars back into circulation.

The expansion of the money supply has been astronomical-when the velocity of turnover begins to grow-and it will-because the longer you hold the more you lose in purchasing power, the falsified low-inflation numbers, will explode-and the velocity will increase as people convert to real assets. This will have the effect of doubling, tripling, quadrupling the supply and the rapid loss of its value to the extent that growth exceeds the growth of production. This will seem like it happened overnight.

Rickards has a really interesting matrix showing how when a certain number of people do a certain things, it triggers another group doing the same, which triggers another group, each exponentially larger-think of the housing bubble, the tech stocks in 1999-2000 for real-world experiences. In essence, every one wakes up on the same day with the same conclusion.

Dollars are being dumped for hard assets by central banks and government. All governments have a policy of debasing their currencies for competitive reasons. The velocity of expanding money supplies is going to increase. Everyone will wake up on the same day and want to own precious metals to protect their personal assets. Everyone knows in their heart that this is true.

Be Prepared's picture

Obama: TSA Trumps the Constitution

Obama: TSA Trumps the Constitution

The Obama administration has released a statement supporting the actions of the Transportation Security Administration today regarding the detainment of Senator Rand Paul in Nashville, TN. Article I, Section 6 of the United States Constitution is clear on detaining any Senator or Representative “in going to and returning from” Congressional sessions.

Article I, Section 6 of the Constitution of the United States

The Senators and Representatives shall receive a Compensation for their Services, to be ascertained by Law, and paid out of the Treasury of the United States. They shall in all Cases, except Treason, Felony and Breach of the Peace, be privileged from Arrest during their Attendance at the Session of their respective Houses, and in going to and returning from the same; and for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place. No Senator or Representative shall, during the Time for which he was elected, be appointed to any civil Office under the Authority of the United States, which shall have been created, or the Emoluments whereof shall have been encreased during such time; and no Person holding any Office under the United States, shall be a Member of either House during his Continuance in Office.

Vigilance is a word that is not generally used in our country too often but it was commonly used by our forefathers and statesmen to warn us of the consequences of a tyrannical government. Here is one quote that America needs to remember:

The battle, sir, is not to the strong alone; it is to the vigilant, the active, the brave.

Patrick Henry

Sen. Paul made a decision today that will be discussed in the media but will not change anything for us. The point that must not be overlooked is that We the People do not have this privilege. Benjamin Franklin explains the consequences of this action:

They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.

Does it Surprise you that the President sides with the TSA over the Constitution which bars the interference of our Representatives except for a very limited range of specific charges.  

Check out the Article over at thehill.com Here

silverstax's picture

Tragically Hip

I saw them in concert in Ottawa around 1995 - the best concert I've ever seen, to date!

Funny thing - I remember everyone looking exactly like DarkPurpleHaze's avatar! ;-)

Planters's picture

Spin the wheel , where does the QE land ?

2012 FOMC Meetings
January 24-25      
March 13      
April 24-25      
June 19-20      
July 31      
September 12      
October 23-24      
December 11
iceman321_2k2's picture

Currency Wars...

coming to a currency near you!

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/gold/currency-wars-are-driving-gold-and-silv...

Although the oil sector is a large target, there is another important sector being targeted by the sanctions.  EU governments also agreed to freeze the assets of Iran’s central bank.  More importantly, it placed a ban on all trade in gold and other precious metals with Iran’s central bank and public entities.  “Today’s decisions target the sources of the finance for the nuclear program, complementing already existing sanctions,” the EU explained.  While the sanctions may be targeted at Iran’s nuclear financing, the move serves as a reminder to investors that precious metals are alternative reserve currencies used in the absence of the U.S. dollar.  Recent data shows that Russia and China are likely to continue business with Iran outside of the U.S. dollar, which will help support gold and silver prices.  In addition to trade agreements, Russia has reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings over 50 percent from October 2010, while China has reduced their holdings to the lowest level in over a year.

gbend's picture

Tonight's Harvey Organ

blogspot has info about Fukushima that is scary.  No zeolight, no sulfer, just more layers of lies.

Also he posted a big section of the latest Hat Trick Letter.

GenXer's picture

Jeb Bush for POTUS

A few days ago someone posted about a secret report where Henry Kissenger assured the Chinese that Jeb Bush will be the next POTUS. The post said that the Republican primaries were going to end in a stalemate opening the door for the third Bush to get the surprise nomination.

I didn't pay much attention to this due to the tinfoil hat factor. But today after watching the Florida debate (Ron Paul was there somewhere, not that they showed him much) I am thinking there is something to this.

In the wrap up one of the NBC talking heads mentioned in passing the thought of Jeb becoming the nominee. If TPTB can pull that off they can do anything.

Senseosensei's picture

Coindeals

Excellent summary sir, a big hat tip from me.

One thing i would like to add: The politicians in Europe act like their citizens, voters, currently do not exist. For the last few years nobody of my government of the Netherlands has asked me, via polls, referenda, or otherwise, if i agreed to bailouts for Greece, and all these other countries. Or if i agreed to the haircut deals currently being worked out by banks. Or if i agreed to make Europe even more of a feudalistic entity than today.

Our finance minister, Jan Kees de Jager, first told us that the loans to Greece would not only not cost us a dime, no we would be making profits big time from the interest Greece had to pay.

Then we got the first cracks in the egg shell, we had to pay even more to keep Greece a float.

And last i checked, in his latest interview, he suggested that we might lose most of the bailout money, as he didn't rule out a Greek default any longer. Still a lie, since we will lose all and more before this is over.

What does all this mean for the political game in my country? Well, The party of Jan Kees de Jager has been dropping big time in the polls, from 21 to 13 members in parliament (150 total in parliament, 76 for a majority). A huge drop of 40%. The party that gains votes big time at the moment, the SP, advocates more socialism, less austerity for the poor and huge tax increases for the rich. If we would have elections coming month, it would mean a political landslide.

And this picture can be seen throughout Europe, where the ruling parties are decimated or face huge electoral losses, in favor of parties that advocate less austerity, less Europe, less banks and less establishment.

In other words, you can only ignore your voters for so long before they turn on you. Something that Merkel or Sarkozy, or all the others, will find out rather sooner than later.

Senseosensei's picture

I have been

reading the columns of Andy, Gonzalo, Jim and Jeff with great pleasure. 4 men that get it, totally.

this sentence basically said it all for me : 

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” - Upton Sinclair

Boswell's picture

Fukushima Daiichi

Saw a documentary on NHK over the weekend (can't find a link?) where they showed the back-up, back-up, back-up cooling system had defective gauges and nobody was trained to go up and turn the valve! DOH!

Boswell's picture

Jeb Bush?

Found this from Jan 18th?

http://www.thetotalcollapse.com/kissinger-vows-to-china-jeb-bush-will-be...

From there...

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/china/2012-01/18/content_14471730.htm

Kissinger and his delegation came to Beijing for the third meeting of the China-US Track Two High-Level Dialogue, a gathering for dozens of retired prominent diplomats and officials from both countries.

Just what is Kissinger's "Official" position? Meddler???

boatman's picture

MACRO ECON n QE pineada

my dart at bens forehead on QE roulette

QE---not tomorrow   [but maybe a hint of upping  inflation target?......]

i'll take april maybe march.

------------------------------------------------------------

gold/silver slide down as its alittle move to 'risk off/inflation off' on siemens reporting 1/3 down so DAX down so dow down........euro contagion fears back some, on renewed fear of portugeese insolvency n greece/private bombholders mexican stand off....oops if there ever was a freudian slip that was one.....

easing on Indian bank reserves bouys sensec but not much help for 'risk on' over here.

gold on 15 min looks like its rolling over....BUT we are WELL in our january UP channel!.

where'sGroaner's  chart lifting pessism when u need it?

we could do worse than jeb bush...he was great for florida.....4 hurricanes in one year and  great emergency response...no katrina debacle here....smartest n most articulate  of the family........but  i know he has that last name.....

if its not ron paul than its the lesser of evils......n its not ron paul til after the great reset......wish he was younger.  

Ant's picture

Help!!!!

Precious metals virgin here. I am standing right on the edge of the diving board re purchasing some gold here in Oz. I was just reading elsewhere that the Euro crisis may actually push gold lower in the not-too-distant future, as Euro investors flee the Euro and convert into USD. Meaning there could be a further dip, before a take-off when the US is revealed to be in equal trouble. So for someone entering the market, hold off or go for it now? Accept the full disclaimer on investor's own decision/risk etc, but just wanted the thoughts of people more knowledgable than me. Heck, I wouldn't mind an opinion on whether anyone thinks the AUD might escape any looming apocalypse, as some have described AUD as a safe haven currency.

Any comments greatly appreciated. Considering I am looking at pulling the trigger tomorrow! 

ClinkinKY's picture

Morning Toons

ClinkinKY's picture

More Chains and "Change"

ClinkinKY's picture

Campaigner in Chief

ClinkinKY's picture

And finally...

DaddyO's picture

More Telegraphing...

by the PTB.

I wrote a similar entry in the last thread about the Oligarchs/PTB/EE/Cartel, etc. telegraphing their intentions. Here is one of the kingpins giving us his thoughts on what lies ahead.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/01/22/george-soros-on-the-com...

DaddyO

Lumpy's picture

Silver Miner CEO's

Was thinking about this last night.

Who will lose the most money when silver gets whacked?  I'm not 100% sure one this, but I bet the miners lose MILLIONS.  Now if I was a CEO of XYZ Silver Mining CO. I would be quite upset when I see the price of silver down 15% in a few days.  I would know that I've been ROBBED by certain entities that remain nameless.  I sure the hell would want to know names.   

So what should I do?  There's not much argument that the private sector is much more efficient than the public sector.  I know the CFTC, SEC don't do what they are supposed to do.  So maybe as a CEO of XYZ  I should call up my fellow Silver miner CEO's and put up some cash to take it to the PRIVATE sector.

Higher an army of private investigators.  Higher some high powered, ruthless, expensive, big-time lawyers.   Put an ad in the Wall Street Journal stating you will pay for any information that will help put an end to the Silver Price Manipulation.

Take it to your share holders and float the idea of a stock offering to raise money to help you stop losing money to whomever these nameless bastards are.

Make it as public as possible and get the word out that your tired of being bent over every few years for millions.

The private sector would probably get the job done where the public sector fails.

Why don't they just take the fight to them?   I know the money would be there if they made their minds up to go on the offensive.

Why do they just sit back and take it??????

Do they think silver is fairly valued?  Maybe they don't believe silver is being manipulated.  

I haven't heard of any miners going after the JP Morgan or whoever is responsible.  The will must be there.  Why don't they go after them?

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