TF's Contributions

TFMR Podcast - Saturday, June 8

Saturday, June 8, 2019 - 9:41am

It was a wild week and a busy Friday. Please take some time this weekend to listen to this podcast so that you're ready to go come Monday.

The big news from late last evening was the "successful" end of the Trump-Mexico tariff stuff. This was likely being priced in on Friday and you...

Are You Gonna Go My Way?

Lenny might say that the train is leaving the station...

Friday, June 7, 2019 - 10:58am

If it's not completely clear by now, then here's another reminder. The year 2019 is playing out in a manner similar to 2010...and 2020 will get even more interesting. So here's Lenny to sharpen the point.

Here it is again for your review:...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, June 6

Thursday, June 6, 2019 - 5:11pm

The stage is set for a volatile day Friday and an interesting weekly close. Be sure to listen to this podcast for a primer.

We begin with a discussion of this link:


It's still a long way to Friday's close.

Thursday, June 6, 2019 - 10:37am

Comex digital precious metal prices are churning today as excess overboughtedness gets worked off and Spec algo resistance gets eaten away. It's all part of the process and tomorrow will be a much more interesting day.

But today is like so many others that we've seen of late. Contrary...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, June 5

Wednesday, June 5, 2019 - 5:02pm

As Comex gold works off some "overboughtedness", Comex silver is brushed back below its 50-day moving average. Oh well, it's just a day as events rapidly move in the direction of 2010+9.

For today, a lengthy general discussion of trading, the bond market and open...

Banks On Their Heels

However, you can be certain they'll fight back soon enough.

Wednesday, June 5, 2019 - 10:35am

Another solid rally today as CDG got within sniffing distance of $1350 before the clamps came down. Regardless, the underlying rationale for this price surge remains unbroken and our goals remain in sight.

The big news today was that the ADP jobs report came in lousy. This prompted...

A Discussion With Chris Martenson

It is well worth your time to give this a listen.

Tuesday, June 4, 2019 - 10:30pm

Last week, Chris Martenson and I recorded a podcast for his terrific website, Peak Prosperity. It was an informative, wide-ranging discussion so I thought it deserved its own thread.

Below is the source link with some text about our conversation. While you're there, you should be sure...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, June 4

Tuesday, June 4, 2019 - 5:29pm

It was just five trading days ago that Comex gold touched $1273. Today, it tapped $1334. Can this upside pace continue? Not a chance. But 2019 is unfolding on schedule and that's all that matters.

To that point, pleasebe sure to read this week's article for Sprott:...

CGP In Bloom

Hopeless, clueless or both?

Tuesday, June 4, 2019 - 10:53am

In the face of an obvious situation, CGP appeared at today's Fed conference and, in true Fed fashion, attempted to downplay said obvious.

Actually, CGP's speech is still ongoing as I type. However, it was released to the public before he began and some of the "highlights" were ticked...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, June 3 - A Visit With The Jackass

Monday, June 3, 2019 - 1:00pm

In lieu of a podcast today, here's an informal discussion of current events with our old friend, The Golden Jackass himself, Jim Willie.

This was meant to be a wide-ranging discussion where the conversation takes Jim and I to wherever we end up. And everything was

Busy Week Ahead

Monday, June 3, 2019 - 10:57am

Well, here we go with what should serve to be a rather consequential week. There are all sorts of economic datapoints as well as the latest BLSBS come Friday. So buckle in and look sharp.

Already today we've had to more dismal datapoints as both the ISM and Markit manufacturing PMIs...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 31

You might want to be sure to listen this weekend.

Friday, May 31, 2019 - 5:46pm

Wow, what an epic... almost historic The daily rallies in global fixed income markets are definitely telling us something. What that is, I'm not sure. Let's hope that it's only just a pending economic slowdown.

There was A LOT to cover today. So, after a lengthy...

It's On

Looks like your $12/month is working out OK...

Friday, May 31, 2019 - 10:43am

Well, here we go...Chaos reigns this morning as Trump expands his trade wars globally. Equity markets are crashing and, perhaps more importantly, fixed income markets are soaring. The Fed is falling rapidly behind and the TFMR Rate Cut likelihood is now 75% for June.

Again, you may...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, May 30

Thursday, May 30, 2019 - 5:11pm

Just one day to go before month end so we take today's podcast to look for levels to watch into tomorrow's close.

After a general discussion of interest rates, the Fed and CDG open interest, we churn through these charts:...

Time To Start Looking Ahead

Can we make some fiat from the next rally?

Thursday, May 30, 2019 - 10:33am

As we inch closer to a final bottom after nearly 100 days of this current downtrend, let's begin to look ahead at what we hope to accomplish in the next UP trend.

Again, here's the key as we move into June. With the yield curve fully inverted...and with the trade war worsening....and...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, May 29

Wednesday, May 29, 2019 - 6:19pm

As discussed yesterday and again this morning, the Comex precious metals are very near a final bottom and turn for this low. However, do not be surprised if tomorrow brings a test of the most recent lows.

After a lengthy general discussion that includes a recap of the days events and...

Batchelor and Cohen Return

Wednesday, May 29, 2019 - 11:49am

After a three-week hiatus, John and Steve returned last evening to bring us up-to-speed with the latest on the New Cold War and "Russiagate".

As always, please try to find time to listen.


Comex Silver OI Oh My

There is no doubt that another major low is near.

Wednesday, May 29, 2019 - 10:22am

As projected in yesterday's podcast, Comex silver open interest did indeed surge on yesterday's washout. This makes the likelihood of a bottom here VERY high and draws near the end of this long downtrend that dates back to February.

The final number is +6,027 to 217,605 contracts. Keep...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, May 28

Tuesday, May 28, 2019 - 4:41pm

It was a day of deliberate and overt precious metal price manipulation. But, in the end, that's OK. Let the Leghounds do their thing. Why? Because we are now VERY close to a bottom and the next move higher will take prices right to the break out point.

For today,...

Comex Option Expiration Day

Today's gold price manipulation is as bold as it is obvious.

Tuesday, May 28, 2019 - 10:37am

My elbow is slightly better after three days of no typing so, rather than the planned morning podcast, here's a morning post that's primarily typed left-handed!

All you need to know today is that it's Comex option expiration day for the front and "delivery" month of June. There are...