TF's Contributions

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, August 13

Thursday, August 13, 2020 - 5:17pm

A great day was sidetracked by a truly lousy 30-year Long Bond auction. Though Comex metal prices have since recovered some of the losses that followed, the damage to some of the charts that we follow is noteworthy so please be sure to listen to this podcast today.

Here's the ZH...

Krazy Kudlow Komes Klean

Thursday, August 13, 2020 - 10:57am

The Comex metals were already moving higher this morning when Krazy Kudlow appeared on CNBC and announced that much more federal spending was on the way. Not that that's a big surprise to anyone here but it did spark an inspired bid for Comex digital metal.

Here's a tweet that I sent...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, August 12

Wednesday, August 12, 2020 - 5:49pm

It was a very frustrating day for your host...for various reasons outlined in this podcast. And then, to top it all off, there's a background hiss to this audio caused by a short in my microphone cord. So my apologies in advance for the static and the agitation.

For today, once again...

Bouncing Along

Wednesday, August 12, 2020 - 10:41am

The Comex precious metals bounced hard overnight as expected. Now we wait, however, to see if the bounces can extend higher and through the end of the week. It's going to be very difficult to paint green weekly candles but we can at least hope for Friday closes back above key support.


On Again With Greg Hunter

This was recorded late yesterday afternoon.

Wednesday, August 12, 2020 - 9:44am

Late yesterday, following the massive smash in the precious metals, was a terrific time to visit again with Greg Hunter of USA Watchdog.

I was on with Greg back in early July and we discussed the Comex delivery stress and how this is likely to impact JPM's ability to manage the price...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, August 11

Tuesday, August 11, 2020 - 5:47pm

Knowing the events of today required immediate attention, MrsF and I wrapped up things with LT#2 ahead of schedule so that I could get back to Turdfork and record this podcast ASAP.

And what a day it was. There's an old axiom among precious metals enthusiasts...Gold takes the escalator...

A Rush For The Exits

Tuesday, August 11, 2020 - 10:33am

Though a pullback and consolidation has been expected, the rush for the exits today by the momo-chasing hot money is likely presenting an opportunity.

Yes, nominal rates are up. In fact, they're up a full ten basis points (20%!) in just two days:...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, August 10

Monday, August 10, 2020 - 5:05pm

It has been a busy day with just a few minutes to pull together and record a podcast. So let's get right to it.

I've been out of the loop all day so I don't have extra links or talking points. Just a general discussion followed by a review of these charts....

Another Long Day

Monday, August 10, 2020 - 9:28am

The Covid Crisis has been many things. It has brought death and sadness but it has also brought some unexpected happiness. For example, I thought that my days of having both LT#1 and LT#2 under my roof for an extended period of time had passed. Instead, from March to June, here they were. Well...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, August 7

Friday, August 7, 2020 - 5:43pm

Though it's always frustrating to see the Comex metals fall on a BLSBS Friday, you might want to relax this weekend and remind yourself that, for the week (Comex close 7/31 to Comex close today), Comex Digital Gold was up $42 and Comex Digital Silver was up $3.32.

And everything was...

Misunderstanding the BLSBS

It's not always bearish anymore.

Friday, August 7, 2020 - 10:58am

For years, we've been conditioned to believe that a "good" jobs report is "bad" for Comex gold and silver. Why? Because it almost always was. But it's critical for you understand that, going forward, things have changed.

Now you might think...whaddayamean? The Comex metals are down...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, August 6

Thursday, August 6, 2020 - 5:15pm

Well, hmmmm. You're either going to love or hate this podcast. But it is what it is and it's time for a little "Come To Turd" meeting. And I must warn you...there is the occasional use of adult language. So, if you have sensitive ears or are otherwise easily-offended, you might want to fast...

The Underlying Trend Continues

Don't fight The Fed.

Thursday, August 6, 2020 - 10:59am

It would be a massive mistake to assume that this is easy and simple. It never is. However, since June 5...and particularly since July 17...the trend in real interest rates has been sharply lower and, as such, the trend in the precious metals has been sharply higher. For the short-term, these...

Thursday Conversation - Marin Katusa

Wednesday, August 5, 2020 - 2:00pm

I know, I know. It's only Wednesday. But my afternoon is such that this audio needs to be posted today, instead. Additionally, this just means that we'll have a regular podcast tomorrow.

So I was able to track down Marin Katusa yesterday. Many of you had been suggesting that I bring...

It's Coming. It's Most Definitely Coming.

Please be certain to read this post today.

Wednesday, August 5, 2020 - 10:11am

As you know, this current run in the precious metals was kicked off on July 17 with the publication by Bloomberg of a Fed policy trial balloon on July 17. And now another similar balloon has been floated today by CNBC. The time has come to stop calling these "balloons" or "suggestions". These...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, August 4

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 - 5:49pm

As expected, it was an extraordinarily busy day...and a lot of fun, too. But now I'm fighting time as I'm trying to get this podcast posted before the Globex trading re-opens at 6:00 pm ET. If I hurry, I might just make it.

And why is the Globex trading so important this evening? As...

On With SilverDoctors

A free, public video.

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 - 5:30pm

I had the pleasure of visiting again today with Paul at SilverDoctors. Since this was such a significant day in the precious metals...and since I was full of caffeine and more lucid than usual...I thought that this would make an excellent public thread for all to listen.

So, if you...

Yields Back to Record Lows

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 - 10:09am

So far today, U.S. treasury yields are pushing back toward the all-time lows seen last week. If this trend continues, it will most likely lead to even lower inflation-adjusted or "real" rates...and this will lead to even higher prices for both CDG and CDS.

Even ZH is already out with a...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, August 3

Monday, August 3, 2020 - 5:50pm

The day began weak but ended with a flourish as nominal and real rates both fell. This sets up a very interesting overnight and Tuesday trade.

Could we be on the verge of a breakout above $2000 in Dec20 CDG? Maybe. If anything, it sure likes we're going to take another crack at it this...

A Weak Start To The Week

But it's not how you begin the week that matters...

Monday, August 3, 2020 - 10:42am

A number of items discussed in Saturday's podcast are playing out today...a reversal and surge in the POSX, CDG capped at $2000 in the Dec20 and CDS shoved backward from $25 again. But hold on. For the first time in weeks, we are seeing early weakness and you know that, with Friday a long way...