TF's Contributions

TFMR "Podcast" - Wednesday, May 25

Wednesday, May 25, 2022 - 3:00pm

As you know, I'm traveling today and unable to record and post your daily podcast. Here's some content that will keep you busy in my absence.

Thanks again for your patience with my schedule this week as family obligations draw my time away from the site. I'll try to crank out a morning...

Comexpiration Day

Wednesday, May 25, 2022 - 10:03am

Today marks the final day of trading for the Jun22 Comex gold options. As usual, we're seeing shenanigans and, as usual, we all knew about it ahead of time.

And this is how you use "Manipulation Analysis" to your advantage. I'm not sure if anyone was considering the purchase of an...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, May 24

Tuesday, May 24, 2022 - 5:27pm

With the investing world slowly coming to terms with the idea that Powell Pivot II may be closer than most realize, the Comex PMS rallied again today on the back of falling interest rates and a lower POSX.

Tomorrow will be another day, though, with FOMC minutes and the latest update on...

Putting The Stag In Stagflation

Tuesday, May 24, 2022 - 10:40am

Today's US economic data is gloomy and points toward worsening conditions and eventual recession. The amount of time before Powell Pivot II kicks in just got shorter.

As discussed in yesterday's podcast, we already have Goons Bullard and Bostic starting to walk back rate hike...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, May 23

Monday, May 23, 2022 - 5:44pm

It was a quiet start to what will be a busy week. So let's put this day behind us so that we can focus upon where we go from here.

For today, there's not much news to discuss that wasn't covered this morning. The Comex PMs remained pressured through the session and only managed to eek...

Monkey See, Monkey Do

Monday, May 23, 2022 - 10:44am

The week begins with the usual Comex shenanigans but the bigger concern is with how it will end. There's a lot of economic data between now and then and an even longer list of potential unknowns, particularly with this Monkeypox stuff.

So welcome to Monday. I hope you had a nice...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 20

Friday, May 20, 2022 - 5:20pm

The week began with an early Monday smash in London. We had hoped at the time that those lows would be the worst of the week and, as it turned out, they were! So now we enter the final week of the month of May in the hope that we can build on this week's momentum.

But it's going to be...

No New News Here

Friday, May 20, 2022 - 10:32am

This seems strange. Every Friday has market-moving news whether it's a BLSBS or some sort of other economic datapoint. But today, there's nothing and, left to its own devices, CDG and CDS are going slowly melting away and taking with them any chance of a weekly close above $1840 or $22....

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, May 19

Thursday, May 19, 2022 - 4:35pm

What an interesting day. Bonds rallied and the POSX sold off sharply. This allowed for a nice bid in both CDG and CDS. And now we await tomorrow. Will the stonk market hold up? If it doesn't, how will the bond market react? It's going to be an interesting day.

For today, though, just a...

And Now For Something Completely Different

Thursday, May 19, 2022 - 10:40am

What's this? Bonds are up and the POSX is down?? When's the last time that happened??? And the TIP is up, too???? And the GDX is up over a full point????? Goodness me, how can that be?

OK, so maybe things haven't changed THAT much. After all, the 200-day moving...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, May 18

Wednesday, May 18, 2022 - 5:25pm

The stonk market sits again on the verge of collapse. However, on several occasions of late, it has immediately reversed and saved itself. Will it do so again tomorrow? If not, what will be the implications?

Time is short so let's get right to it. We discuss stonks, the eventual Powell...

Currency Convulsions

Wednesday, May 18, 2022 - 11:08am

It's just another day in the barrel for Comex precious metals so let's a couple of other items that have crossed my screen this morning.

First of all, welcome to all its glory. The POSX is up while bonds catch a safe haven bid as the S&P is down 70 points. Yeehaw....

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, May 17

Tuesday, May 17, 2022 - 5:28pm

Today may have finally pushed your host over the edge and into the sanatorium. I hope they have nice rooms there. Do you suppose they have ice cream? I really like ice cream.

OK, maybe I'm not ready to be institutionalized just yet...but...this past month has worn me out. So, for today...

To Recess or Not To Recess

Tuesday, May 17, 2022 - 10:24am

That is the question. For yours truly, the end result has always been stagflation and the US (and world) is definitely headed in that direction. But today's economic data seemed to forestall the recession talk for now and that has helped to drive the Comex metals backward...again.


TFMR Podcast - Monday, May 16

Monday, May 16, 2022 - 5:42pm

In what may go down as a trend change and reversal day, Comex Digital Gold fully recovered from an overnight London Monkey raid to post a high that was $41 above the low. Could it be that the lows for this brutal, four-week downtrend are in? Ask me again tomorrow at this time.

And why...

Tell Me Why

Monday, May 16, 2022 - 10:52am

I don't like Mondays. I want to shoot the whole day down.

Let's hope that this week will be different from last week...or the week before that...or the week before that. It didn't start out particularly well. Did you catch this little beauty overnight? Nothing to see here, of course....

TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 13

Friday, May 13, 2022 - 4:50pm

It was another dreadful and dreary week, making four weeks in a row where the Comex digital metals have been pounded lower. Some small glimmers of hope have begun to appear, however, so let's wrap up this week and begin to look forward.

No links today. No screenshots of tweets, either...

Aw, Screw It

Friday, May 13, 2022 - 10:46am

Don't you feel that way, too? I mean, come on. The Comex precious metals have done nothing but go straight freaking down for weeks and, at some point, you feel like none of it even matters anymore. Which is precisely why we are now likely at an intermediate low.

In fact, I wouldn't be...

Thursday Conversation - Larry Lepard

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - 3:34pm

Larry Lepard is a Boston-based money manager and sound money advocate. He's also a longtime member of this site, going back to The Watchtower days so I think it's safe to say that you're going to enjoy this podcast.

Larry's day job is a money manager at Equity Management Associates in...

Powell's Black Hole

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - 10:49am

Unwittingly or not, The Fed has created a black hole of rising nominal rates and a rising POSX and this beast is now consuming nearly all "markets".

I'm a little late getting started because I spent some time this morning watching a press conference where some astronomers and...