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Starting Over

Monday, September 9, 2024 - 9:53am
By
11

Last week was a long week and it sure felt good to make it to Friday. But now, after just two short days of rest, we are right back at it and starting a new week that will be full of surprises. It is what it is so we might as well just jump right in and get started.

I hope you enjoyed...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, September 6

Friday, September 6, 2024 - 5:30pm
11

What a crazy day this was. A horrible BLSBS. Truly horrible. All part-time jobs and no jobs for any native-born US citizens. Terrible. But that wasn't what drove the markets today. Instead, it was the growing realization (finally) that Jerry isn't (and never was) going to start his cuts with a...

Another BLSBS Friday

Friday, September 6, 2024 - 9:28am
By
17

The long-awaited August jobs report is in and it shows a continuation of the worsening trend of the past few months (and years). Was it enough to make Jerry panic into a 50 basis point fed funds rate cut in two weeks? Maybe.

But make no bones about it, this was another terrible report...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, September 5

Thursday, September 5, 2024 - 5:32pm
15

Both Comex precious metals bounced back today and both are now slightly green on the week. That's nice. It's also meaningless when you consider that tomorrow is another BLSBS Friday and the fate of how sizable Jerry's first rate cut will be hangs in the balance.

For today, just simple...

A Busy Bouncy Day

Thursday, September 5, 2024 - 10:12am
By
10

The Comex PMs are bouncing today after a steady stream of positive news since the JOLTS report of yesterday. Will this bounce continue through today's service sector PMIs and tomorrow's BLSBS? Maybe. IF it does, we'll be looking at finally breaking through that $2560 cap.

To begin...

The Jackass Cometh

Wednesday, September 4, 2024 - 2:00pm
With
20

Due to our semi-monthly Beer with TF happy hour, I was unable to bring you some fresh Jackass for your holiday weekend. We fix that issue today with an hour if full-on Jackass that is sure to please his most ardent supporters.

Of course, some of you are not big fans of these podcasts...

Ready For A JOLT

Wednesday, September 4, 2024 - 9:45am
By
11

It's a very busy week for data and the hots continue later this morning with the latest update on job openings and quits....the JOLTS. Will the news at 10:00 ET be enough to turn CDG back into the green? We'll know soon enough.

And there's not much else going on today, otherwise. Most...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, September 3

Tuesday, September 3, 2024 - 5:51pm
15

The week got off to a late start but it didn't hesitate in bringing the volatility as a note from Goldman Sachs hammered the commodities while weakness in AI and tech led to a sharp selloff in stonks. What happens next? Come on in and let's talk about it.

For today, we begin with a...

An Inauspicious Start

Tuesday, September 3, 2024 - 10:43am
By
18

If you were able to listen to Friday's BwT audio, you may have noticed my concern for how this month might play out. I'm not expecting a crash or even a significant decline. However, after six consecutive green monthly candles, don't be surprised if September ends in the red.

And we're...

BwT - August 2024

21

Please try to join us later today for another Happy Hour and Cocktail Party.

It was back during Covid when we first started hosting these Zoom calls. It was a fun outlet back then and a reason to get together for some camaraderie and laughs. We've slowed the pace over the years and now...

August Ends

Friday, August 30, 2024 - 10:12am
By
15

The trading month comes to a close today. We have the final PM Fux of the month as well as monthly close for both CDG and CDS. As I type, we're on track for green monthly candles in both but there's still plenty of day left to worry about.

The big and primary news of the day was the...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, August 29

Thursday, August 29, 2024 - 5:22pm
13

One day to go for the week, one day to go for the month. And it's going to be a busy day, too, with the latest PCE, the final PM Fux and monthly chart painting. So don't go starting your weekend early. Let's persevere and fight for another 24 hours or so in the hope of painting another big...

Q2 GDP Revised Higher

Thursday, August 29, 2024 - 10:21am
By
15

Seriously. A number that was already way above expectations got revised even higher this morning! LOLOL! But, whatever. It is what it is and, with that, we've successfully navigated the drilling down of expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut next month. That's now behind us so we can move...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, August 28

Wednesday, August 28, 2024 - 5:27pm
14

It was another frustrating day in the Comex PMs as an oversold/dead cat bounce in the POSX led to liquidations across the commodity sector. It was also another frustrating day at Turdfork as my internet service remains OUT.

But we're working to improve both. Tomorrow brings the second...

A Sea Of Red

Wednesday, August 28, 2024 - 10:54am
By
12

A bounce from those 13-month lows in the POSX had led to a selloff across the commodity sector today and the entire board is red. Is this the start of a rally in the POSX and sustained pullback in commodities? Probably not. It's likely just a bounce. But this does make the reaction to Friday's...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, August 27

Tuesday, August 27, 2024 - 6:58pm
With
13

Well, at least Comex option expiration is behind us for another month and tomorrow is scheduled for a quiet news day. Whether or not it turns out that way is another matter.

My apologies for the delay in publishing this podcast. The internet repair guy is supposed to be here tomorrow...

August Comex Option Expiration Day

Tuesday, August 27, 2024 - 10:59am
By
11

Yes, it's that time of the month again. Today is the day that August options on Comex price and expire and Thursday is the day that the front month Sep24 silver goes off the board and into "delivery". As with every Comex option expiration day, you must expect price management into the pricing...

Finally Back At Turdfork

Monday, August 26, 2024 - 8:34pm
By

It has been a long day but it ended with good news and a return to Turdfork. In the end, I didn't miss much but here's a new thread with a quick update of the charts.

The best news of the day is that LT#2 is officially out of the hospital and feeling great. This, of course, is a great...

Toward Month End

Monday, August 26, 2024 - 10:16am
By
11

They say that, as you get older, time flies so quickly. As a rapidly aging 58-year old, I'm quite certain that "they" are correct. Case in point, this week brings another round of Comex expirations and end-of-the-month chart painting? Didn't we just do this a week or two ago?

Not only...

TFMR Podcast - Saturday, August 24

Saturday, August 24, 2024 - 11:35am
16

It was a busy week for the Comex PMs but it was also a very constructive week as CDG found support at the old resistance line and CDS continued its bounce from the lows of two weeks ago. Next week will be busy, too, with Comex option expiration and more economic data so please give this podcast...

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