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For Auld Lang Jackass


Our old pal Jim Willie, The Golden Jackass, stops by today for his annual year-in-review and look ahead. If you can find some time over the holiday, you should be sure to have a listen.

As usual, Jim is full of valuable information. Over the course of this podcast, just a few of the topics discussed are:

  • the ongoing REPO/QE crisis
  • central bank and media tricks and semantics
  • the growing alliances against the US$
  • how gold will be central to the next monetary system
  • the US treasury bond as the new global contagion
  • and, as you might imagine, a whole lot more

Thanks again to Jim for his time and willingness to share his insights with all of us at TFMR. It is going to be a volatile and unpredictable 2020. Listen to this podcast and begin to mentally prepare for what's ahead.



Dec 31, 2019 - 9:50pm

Glad you're still here!

Happy New Decade, Charlie!


Dec 31, 2019 - 9:39pm
Dec 31, 2019 - 8:37pm

Gammon time

FDIC: You'll Lose Your Life Savings (UNLESS YOU DO THIS)

Note: I do not sell CDs!

Dec 31, 2019 - 8:10pm

Alhambra podcast and chartbook

All-Stars #85 Jeff Snider: U.S. Dollar Year End Review & 2020 Outlook


Dec 31, 2019 - 8:06pm

zman, I think it's a race...

What do the bankers know that nobody else does?? Probably that the meeting between Mnuchin, Trump and Powell back in the early fall was to hatch a pretend repo crisis to flood the banks and primary dealers with cash to assure the continued moonshot of the stock market. I bet Repo ends the day after the next Presidential deception day come November. But, I'd argue that these bankers are already the walking dead. Comex is a perfect example of this. Used to be, they shorted gold contracts in support of the US Dollar per the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (Reagan EO 1988) but, even backed by the ESF, the bankers have still been done in by their own debt exposure. "Repo to Infinity" is the systemic answer to resisting the next 2008 collapse as well as Trump's reelection. Whether it's HSBC or others, the liquidity crisis is still fulminant in the bankig system. They have no choice but to double-down upon double-down and pray until the clock runs out. They've already lost!!! The game now is to simply stalling the arrival of the hangman and the greedy reaper!

If you are right and a global stock market rally does ensue, it will be a continuation of the result of the excess liquidity the Central Banks pump into it, just as Repo is now, and it will be no more real than what we've seen already. The real question is when the Crisis in Confidence comes and what happens then. either way, I truly don't think the bankers win this one. History is, in the long run, quite ruthless in this regard.

Dec 31, 2019 - 7:43pm

Missing by a "phantom inch"

RickshawETF, this game is FAR from over! All that synthetic supply represented with paper contracts backed by nothing was created from nothing to absorb the increasing demand for gold -- paper or otherwise. Remember, the real thing DOES NOT EXIST!! However, the demand DOES.

I view the necessity for the bullion banks to create short contracts as a massive validation demonstrating that people are beginning to regard that 'barbarous relic' as something far more valuable than Kitco, the World Gold Council, and Warren Buffet would like us to think. And THAT makes me bullish as hell for the longer term.

I liken this to the Repo Crisis. There is a liquidity crisis with the banks so they have to bolster their cash positions with fiat paper just to stay in the game. Like the "Voice" says, ALL the western banks are in RUINS.

Comex has a liquidity crisis in gold. They have to bolster their positions with fiat contracts just to stay in the game. I'd argue the forces fronting through Comex (Bullion Banks) Again, like the "Voice" says, the bullion banks are the same disasters, at least from a balance sheet perspective where those short contracts appear.

The demand represented by the other side of those Comex contracts is, however, VERY REAL! And it is not going away.

Dec 31, 2019 - 7:31pm

sexysilver... re: retracted Trump stories

I think the only Trump story that was false and retracted was that he was a "stable genius".

Happy, healthy, and safe New Year to all of turdistan.

Dec 31, 2019 - 7:28pm

@"Remember, we are record level open interest"

Yes, but I believe we're also at record level net short positions (340k) from the Bankers. When has that ever worked out very well in the past for the bulls?

I guess the better question is, what do the Bankers know that nobody else does at this point? I'm assuming they're not going to lose and ultimately cover at much lower prices like they always have in the past. The Bankers sometimes hold these positions for a decent period of time and many times they are in the red, but at the end of the day they never lose money.

If I were to have to guess, I think 2020 will consist of a very large global stock market rally after a solid 2 year consolidation period. I can also see a temporary rally in the commodity market as well, as fears of global recession come to an end. As a result, money might flow out of PM's and therefore enable the Bankers to cover at lower prices. Again, this is just my guess of what might happen.

AGXIIKAngry Chef
Dec 31, 2019 - 7:18pm


When I read that DOLE GEEZERS get another 18 months before the RMD forces us Boomers to start taking from our retirement plans, it seemed like a good idea.

Wifey and I were starting to look at her RMD coming up in 2020 and mine in 2021. One thing we did not want to do is crack open that nest egg until we absolutely had to. 'Absolutely' had to means this:

We needed distributions from our SDIRA to cover personal overhead after I decide to close the business and stop working. Closing the business is not in the cards right now.

I'd like to put off the RMD by a few more years to avoid extra income and the extra taxes resulting from the RMD. All it does for us is kick us into a higher tax bracket and we do not need that agita at present. But I gotta take the cash or suffer a 50% penalty Bummer dude!

Even though the IRS tables for RMD starts at around 3.6% of the IRA balance based on an estimated life span of 27.6 years (pretty generous given that the IRS thinks you'll live to 98 ), and for conversation sake if you and your spouse are both entering your first year of RMD and your collective IRA balance is $400,000, you'll be forced to withdraw $14,500

DYODD to get more exact numbers and check to see longevity chart for RMD draws at 72. Figure that the IRS subtracts the 1.5 extra years from 27.5 before RMD starts and you're at 26 years of life for this calculation

Back to the future and the same IRA has grown to $450,000. That's only 8% per annual growth.

Now you're going to have to take the first draw based on 26 years divided into $450,000 or $17,300. Chaching.

Here is another problem with these RMDs.

If you fail to take any RMD in any one year and miss the timing of the withdrawal to the day and date specified in the IRS regulations you get penalized---

wait for it---

50% of the RMD due that year

Miss the date and you get to pay the IRS $8,650 in penalties

I call that a 50% tax rate. And I think you also have to pay taxes on everything you withdraw to boot. For heaven's sake get professional advice on this matter and make sure you carve, in stone and lights, the date your RMD is due!!!

But it gets worse.

Since your heirs have to withdraw the entire core of the IRA in 10 years, and for conversation sake that IRA has grown by 50% before you and your wife hop the twig, your heirs will be forced to take maybe 10% of $750,000 or $75000 a year. That could easily jack the heirs into a much higher tax bracket

But it gets worse.

By that I mean the failure for any heir to meet the RMD withdrawal time period subjects the heir to the same 50% penalty. Do the math and you can see that while the heirs receive an inheritance that's essentially found money, they are forced to rapidly and very expensively draw down what I call legacy or generational wealth.

I am pretty sure of something else. The 1% wealthiest have enough accountants and legal counsel to find ways of parking or securing their huge inherited wealth sans this RMD BS. Of that I am certain.

Another thing I am certain of is that making the first RMD date at 70.5 or 72 years there would be substantial percentage of people who failed to calculate their required date of withdrawal.

The IRS already figured this into the tax revenue stream and, with a leering grin, licking their chops, they tell the politicians that when Ma and Pa Kettle f**k up the government gets another $XXXXXXXXXXX dollars.

Chaching. 50% penalty

From what I have read in my tax letters and circulars even dementia will not mitigate the penalty. Miss the date and you are screwed. Memo to self. Don't forget the date

Another thing that I am certain of is that when the IRS and government tax writers conceived of and put into law this IRA boon along with its many snares and entanglements they knew many things.

The first thing they knew is that the vultures managing retirement account would harvest 50 to 150 BPS in fees per annum. Those vultures helped write the law, guarantying their rake and toke would be in the trillions.

The people who invested in IRAs are unlikely to have seen the best returns or yields for their investments. Those top tier investments are reserved for the elite and those with access of the best advisors money could buy. The steerage class investor got mediocre returns as well as the highest management incomes.

I haven't done the hard number crunching to see the impact on our IRAs, both of which are combined at mid6 figures but I am certain of 2 things

When we do the first RMD in around 3 years I'll be hopping mad to get the tax bill for our RMA

And if gold doubles I'll be twice as pissed.

Another thing I know for certain that since we have no kids or heirs our IRAs will immediately rotate to our chosen charities. Bang zoom, the IRAs are outta here and into the hands of good people who will use the capital to do good deeds. And the government gets nothing

Dec 31, 2019 - 6:55pm

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/3

5/3 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
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5/5 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
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