Checking in with Ken Lewis, CEO of APMEX and OneGold

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In lieu of a regular podcast update today, please take time to listen to this insightful discussion with Ken Lewis, CEO of APMEX and OneGold.

Over the course of this call, Ken and I discuss a wide range of topics, including:

  • a reminder of the the benefits of using OneGold
  • current retail demand trends for physical gold and silver
  • Ken's thoughts on where prices head from here
  • and what Ken expects in terms of retail supply (long-term investors liquidating metal) in the months ahead.

This was a very interesting and timely discussion and I think you're going to find it quite helpful. And please be sure to check out OneGold. I'm a very satisfied customer and I think you will be, too.

TF

  42 Comments

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SilverSpec
Sep 10, 2019 - 8:33am

Hi Mr. Lewis

Could you please elaborate on the ways your One Gold product is superior to your competitors (i.e. Coughlin's Kinesis and Sebag's GoldMoney)?

ratioarbitrage
Sep 10, 2019 - 3:40am

Quick update

Just in the hour or so since I mentioned that the basis was tighter, price has been up almost 1% but the basis has unfortunately already responded, during Shanghai opening hours. To me this means that metal was available for sale in Shanghai due to the lower prices - in China speculators also trade with physical metal rather than just with contracts, as far as I can work out. So rather than stop running you get a flood of metal.

Generally China does not dip as far into the physical floor as the USA, because there price formation and the physical market are more tightly linked - as we all very well know. London has an intermediate status.

Practically what this means is that after 9.5% down, on the fourth down day, with prices now at bargain levels for this bull, there is the prospect of either further falls during London or USA opening OR a value-driven contract-driven bounce. I.e. the signal from earlier today was immediately validated with a small bounce but has now become worthless due to the factors mentioned - so now anything could happen.

That is why I prefer HODL - there are periods when the market gives you no useful information for the short term. In the long term we all know the bull will complete and that phys demand will rise as price rises for several months, and eventually a craze will develop. You cannot stay in to benefit from this without taking the downs along the way, because if you try to time it, you always fail to get back in (well at least I do...) so hodling merrily and blindly...

ratioarbitrage
Sep 10, 2019 - 1:56am

Spread indicates additional tightness

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/SIY00/technical-chart?plot=LINE&...

The premium on December silver over cash silver has fallen from around 11 cents to around 9 cents as shown here (only the centre of the fuzzy chart is meaningful; outliers both up and down mean that one of the prices did not update in that minute).

What is interesting is that throughout the $1.65 fall from $19.65 to $18.00 the basis was unaffected. The additional 20 cents this morning down to $17.80 has made much more of a difference. This is what I call the physical floor. There is a time lag between the price formation mechanisms and the physical feedback mechanism, so a spike can occur *into* the physical floor, but it cannot stay for long below that level.

I also knew from historical comparisons that every major intermediate down wave in silver (in the middle of a 6-12 bull market) is above its bottom until the end of the fourth day - today is the fourth day. For full disclosure, generally at some point (a few days later) the bottom formed on the fourth day is tested and fails, but only by around 1% or so. That is then the intermediate bottom.

As stated before, I am travelling very happily up and down with this price, even with leverage, because I know from strong historical correlates that the bull is unlikely to end until it has achieved 80-110% above its starting price of $14.35. The situation in 2016 with an interruption at around 50% appears to me to be anomalous, partly perhaps due to a long metal overhang from higher prices in 2012-2013. All other bulls in the 21st century have achieved 80-110%, usually in 6-12 months (2010 was the exception; it was achieved in just the first 3-4 months).

bmorrowLoblolly Pine
Sep 10, 2019 - 1:23am

Shout Out to JP

Absolutely! Right on....

bmorrowklewis92
Sep 10, 2019 - 1:20am

$50 Silver No More?

That was a stupid thing to say Ken. As you admit, you are certainly not an analyst.

bmorrowJPMoargain
Sep 10, 2019 - 1:13am

Silver Over Mined?

Who is this guy??? Sounds flaky to me! And hey Turd...why didn't you call him out for making stupid statements? Better yet, why put the piece on at all???

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

RickshawETFAgstAger
Sep 10, 2019 - 12:57am

@AgstAger

Personal Experience! The shares are still sitting in my Schwab Rollover IRA acct.

Today's "Market Value": $116.15

This was a "Buy & Hold" [until Armageddon] strategy . . .

happycamper515
Sep 10, 2019 - 12:15am

When I think about

We've all been in a deeper shithole than this over the past 6 years so what's a little pullback after a good 3-month run. Doesn't feel good now but what really changed in the past week? Trump is still going to tweet BS day in day out and do what ever he has to to keep the stock market afloat. China is going to talk tough and do jack shit. Like everything else this will pass.

ReachWest
Sep 10, 2019 - 12:04am

OneGold

Meant to add in my previous comment earlier today that I am a OneGold client too and really like the product.

ReachWestTF
Sep 10, 2019 - 12:02am

Bounce Here?

So it kinda looks that we're close to or at Turd's blue lines on those charts. Hope we hold/bounce from there. Fingers-crossed, but it sure doesn't feel great right now. We'll see.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

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