Thursday Conversation - Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney

Please be sure to listen to this FREE, PUBLIC podcast.

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Yes, I realize that it's Friday but this week's schedule is such that this podcast could not be posted on Thursday. Additionally, this discussion with Alasdair is so valuable that I wanted to post it at the top of the TFMR homepage and leave it there all weekend.

My purpose in reaching out to my old friend, Alasdair, was to discuss these two recent research pieces. As gold and silver are progressing higher in our 2010+9 scenario (https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/9151/2010-9), it's important to consider the potential ramifications of both:

Many thanks to Alasdair for the generous donation of his time. Please be sure to listen and give this podcast your thorough consideration.

TF

  71 Comments

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Mickey
Aug 19, 2019 - 7:38am

This morning

This sunday night, premarket sell off will lead to GDXJ and GDX to decline below the prior consolidation area, and thats a rule for me to lighten up. I think. Not sure whether i want to linger on selling or not or just hedge. Caught now in no mans land.

that said, we are in August end of summer light trading time frame, so i will be cautious of what I sell and ready to pull trigger to buy more. This can change in a hurry.

Last year we had a similar sell off mid august so when i get to pc will have to look at charts to see what happenned next

Angry Chef
Aug 19, 2019 - 5:02am
Gasivs Buttoxmike97
Aug 19, 2019 - 12:42am

I suspect you're right

I know that some of you were bolstered by the relatively strong finish for bullion on Friday.

The miners however, were not joining the party and from past experience, deteriorating miners right up to and including the final minutes on a Friday, does not bode well for Monday's HUI. The only thing that could've turned this around this weekend was something really nasty occurring in HK and that didn't happen (which is a good thing for the people in HK).

I for one, will trim my core position first thing Monday (depending on just how steep the overnight decline is) and hope for an opportunity to buy it back later in the week or if need be, the week after that.
I've never been comfortable in using futures to offset risk but selling and buying in and out of my core position as I do involves tremendous risk in itself. I'm constantly faced with the double challenge of picking the right time to sell (which is hard enough) but then following that up by buying it back at the right time without being overly greedy. Of course, I could always just hang on and weather any pullback but more than 6 years of relentless declines in PMs has proved that this can be a very expensive way to do things.

In years past, I've tried using stops to avoid serious losses but found with uncanny regularity, I succeeded in setting them at values very nearly at the bottom of a pullback. How depressing to see positions erode from 10,000 shares to 9,000, then 8,000 as I would struggle to regain as much of my core position as possible with remaining funds.

Has anyone else experienced this? Surely I can't be alone in trading this way.

Please understand, I'm not really complaining here. I've done extraordinarily well on some occasions. It's just those occasions when it's gone the other way that makes me want to bang my head against a wall.

matt_mike97
Aug 18, 2019 - 10:28pm

Predictions work until they don't

Curious to see if you are right. I would love to find a predictable pattern, but I don't believe a profitable one exists that won't become unprofitable at some point.

I actually spent many hours doing computational analysis of trading data. I taught myself the basics of machine learning and tried using a variety of standard and custom technical indicators to predict market direction. Sometimes predictable patterns emerge, but then they disappear. The problem is that everyone is trying to do the same thing.

NUGTCALLTF
Aug 18, 2019 - 9:48pm

Xi is playing

Chinese torture with Trump and the US by ever so slowly weakening their currency. Drip drip drip.

https://tenor.com/view/mymoney-owe-loan-gif-10559999

mike97
Aug 18, 2019 - 9:22pm

You may be right

That's a mischaracterization.

What's not true is the notion that the metals follow the next day after a miner decline.

After days, who knows what might happen.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

eastofwest
Aug 18, 2019 - 9:21pm

Oh for crying out loud ...

in-n-out is not a 'burger joint' ...

Aug 18, 2019 - 9:20pm

Monday yuan fix

Weakest yet at 7.0365 vs Friday 7.0312

lakedweller2
Aug 18, 2019 - 9:02pm

American Swamp

On now, MSNBC.

goldcom
Aug 18, 2019 - 8:47pm

Sunday evening price pressure on PM's

According to Gregory Mannarino Trump came out a second time of the week after Friday market close with more concessions to China trade. Evidently the algos have picked up on that and are having their way with the market.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

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