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Thursday Conversation - Holiday Jackass

61

It's not a full holiday weekend as the US markets will be open on Friday. Regardless, it's tradition around here to check in with Jim Willie for a mid-summer update so here you go.

As usual, we mainly tried to discuss three, major themes...though, as usual, the conversation often veered off to cover other areas, as well. For this podcast, those themes are:

  1. The recent news of the EU's INSTEX system and how this is the next stage in the decline of the petrodollar. What is INSTEX? See here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2019/06/30/europe-circumvent...
  2. The global bond market. Will the entire world eventually move to zero or negative rates or will the "bond market bubble" finally burst?
  3. With gold finally breaking out of a six-year trading range, what should we expect next? And what about silver?

As always, major thanks to The Jackass for his willingness to share his valuable time. After all we've been through...and with where we are currently...there has never been a more important time to consider a subscription to The Hat Trick Letter. You can find out more information here:

Have a great day!

TF

  61 Comments

J Siefert
Jul 4, 2019 - 9:11am

Ha The Jackass

...at last

Jul 4, 2019 - 9:32am

Global bond market

As the global bond market is a key topic of this podcast, you should be sure to read this today: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-04/first-time-ever-german-bund-yi...

AgAuMan
Jul 4, 2019 - 9:42am

Silver

2nd

Harley
Jul 4, 2019 - 10:03am

3rd

I'll keep stacking

J Siefert
Jul 4, 2019 - 10:49am

With the wife in an old folks home for dementia patients

...I'm not exactly flush with cash but I can manage $50 for Jim.

Island Teal
Jul 4, 2019 - 10:52am

4th of July

Sorry Marcas. Had to take it.

NW VIEW
Jul 4, 2019 - 11:40am

Thankful on the fourth, field report:

We were taking our usual senior citizens walk yesterday. We noticed a man, near his mailbox and started up a conversation. It is just amazing to see how people open up when we do not have our eyes on our cell phone screens.

He just laid out his fears and concerns. We had never seen this man before. His wife had received the bad news in November that she had ALS. She had degenerated to being sick, weak and in a wheel chair. He said something like: "I am so depressed. I am her chore worker, doing the house work and the cooking, and cannot go to work." Then he starting to cry, right on the street corner.

Life is interesting! I fully see that we must keep our eyes open and also our ears. Opportunities unfold before us, every day, as we are given the blessing of standing in the gap for those in real need. Yes it is the forth, however, tomorrow is coming and he will be faced with another difficult day. Jim

AGXIIK
Jul 4, 2019 - 12:09pm

A friend's journey--Don't let the old man in--Costco

A few things happened in the last 2 days that put me in a reflective mood.

JSeifert, you got a tough road ahead with your wife with dementia in a home. I know you'll take care of her. That's your nature.

My friend started a project; to find all the men who went through OCS in 1969 He and another former Marine are putting together a 50th anniversary reunion. Those who completed this tough schooling went on to Vietnam as Ist Lieutenants. Of the 240 men of that class, half are gone. Many were killed in war and many more have since passed.

He told me it's been tough finding these men 50 years later but many are now invited to the reunion. The hardest part was finding out what happened to his fellow classmates and friends, whether they fell in battle or, after they came home, lived their lives and passed before their time due to the vagaries of age, wounds, accidents or other things that make us all mortal.

I told him he was part of a noble cause, making sure that after 50 years they were not forgotten by the men with whom they served

Being in a reminiscing mood I played the Toby Keith song 'Don't let the Old Man In' a couple of time. It's the last song on the movie The Mule, starring Clint Eastwood.

Rather than spoil that story, best that you watch the show to see how Clint, at 90, is still plugging along, he's damn well not letting the old man in. If you have a chance to listen to Keith's song, you might see how we men of a certain age can take heart in the song

Don't Let The Old Man In.

I'm not sure which is better; seeing Keith sing it at the Grand Old Opry House or the video montage of the movie with the song playing. Both are on You Tube. If the words and melody don't latch on to you in some deep way, best listen to it a couple more times. I think it's one of Toby Keith's best songs

Yesterday I was Costco and met a WWII vet. He was wearing a cap that said WWII Veteran 1941-1945. Airborne. Hunched over and using a cane, he might have been all of 4' 9"

I introduced myself, shook his hand, gave him a 70th Anniversary D Day silver coin and asked him a little about himself. He was there at D Day and way before that time too.

He joked that he used to be 5'10" but all those jumps took a toll. We both knew there are less and less of the men like him who served almost 80 years ago.

What struck me here was a man at least 95 years old, a bit weathered and worn, but getting along pretty darn well, willing to talk to a complete stranger, tell a few tales of his time in the service.

It was real clear that he never let the Old Man in.

When we finished our conversation, that member of the Greatest Generation and I walked our separate ways. I couldn't help but think about people like Capernick and Rapinoe, going on about the American Flag and how they get triggered by it because of all the bad stuff they thing is represented by the flag.

I feel kind of sorry for them They're The Clueless Generation.

Maybe one day they'll see someone like the veteran I met at Costco or a man who served in combat during the Korean or Vietnam war who'll take a few minutes to explain to them how their thinking is pretty off base; certainly a gross insult to sacrifice of those served and backhanded smack to the families of those service men and women

My wife and I will take a bit of time today to reflect on those people and not the ones who play kiddie ball games, thinking their miniscule abilities make it ok to trash people whose valor is incomprehensible. There's plenty of those around. Best ignore them

Cheers to everyone on this Fourth Of July

Can't wait to dig into a big ol' slab of juicy jackass

I wonder what Doc Willie's going to say today

Angry Chef
Jul 4, 2019 - 12:34pm

INSTEX is like a beautiful car without gasoline, Iran envoy says

We'll have to wait and see how INSTEX unfolds. Jim neglects to mention that most if not all of the European and Western leaders are compromised either thru bribery or extortion. And the CIA/MOSSAD who work for the Banksters have the photographs. This is why we have the corrupt money, political, and societal system we have today. Because all the good decent men and women get turned off and leave. All we're left is compromised swamp creatures.

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/437593/INSTEX-is-like-a-beautiful-car-w...

streber
Jul 4, 2019 - 12:41pm

CME, July Gold Deliveries continue Growing

above what went off the board on first notice day last week.
===

From Ed Steer...

The CME Preliminary Report for the Wednesday trading session showed that gold open interest in July actually rose by 7 contracts, leaving 88 left, minus the 21 mentioned a few paragraphs ago. Tuesday's Daily Delivery Report showed that 18 gold contracts were actually posted for delivery on Friday, so that means that 18+8=26 more gold contracts were just added to the July delivery month.
===

The two previous CME reports showed total of 120 additional deliveries.
So, with 26 more there have now been 146 add-ons to the July gold contract for first 3 days of July. July is an "off" month.

Apparently, there are entities who want phyz, not paper.

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

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Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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