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TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, June 25 - A conversation with Ronni Stoeferle

37

If you have an interest in the precious metals, then the annual "In Gold We Trust" report from Incrementum AG is always a must read. As a follow-up, here's your chance to hear directly from one of the report's principal authors, our pal Ronald-Peter Stoeferle.

The compact version of this year's report is embedded below. If you'd like to download the full version, you can do so through this link: https://ingoldwetrust.report

For this podcast, Ronni and I discuss three themes that were primary topics in the 2019 report:

  • The concept of trust and the continuing loss of confidence in global institutions.
  • The notion that "the best track record for recession forecasts is found in the yield curve".
  • Has creative destruction in the mining sector set the stage for a bull market in the shares?

We also discuss these three charts that are taken from the report:

You're going to really enjoy this podcast. Thanks in advance for listening.

TF

  37 Comments

  Refresh
streber
Jun 25, 2019 - 4:51pm

Couple expose's. These people know what's best for you.

First - A retired Admiral on BoD of Raytheon, shredded by Jimmy Dore.
18 minutes (speed it up)

CBS News "War Expert" Is Being Paid By Raytheon
streber
Jun 25, 2019 - 4:48pm

Good Web Site

http://www.the92ers.com/

WHAT IS MEANT BY "THE 92ERS?"

When Harvard proposed eliminating the Dean’s List in October 2002, fully 92% of upperclassmen were on the Dean’s List! Of course, if 92% of eligible people merit some sort of achievement, it can’t be much of an achievement. The list of the fifty people most responsible for the crisis – i.e. the Confederacy of Dunces – is dominated by Ivy League graduates. As demonstrated by the common denominator of an Ivy League degree, the true root cause of the financial crisis was a purely human factor; the completely false sense of omnipotence, self-importance and entitlement among the country’s elite, as well as the nurturing of these beliefs at Ivy League colleges and other elite universities.

streberstreber
Jun 25, 2019 - 4:40pm

#2 Larry Summers Shredded by Peter Smith

Lawrence H. Summers - Archetypal Dunce Among the Confederacy of Dunces

Lawrence H. Summers is a walking, talking advertisement for this website. The basis of this website is provided by only two simple conclusions.

  1. The root cause of the financial crisis was a "purely human factor. This human factor is the completely false sense of omnipotence, self-importance and entitlement among the country's elite, as well as the nurturing of these beliefs at Ivy League colleges and other elite universities."
  2. Unless this purely human factor is addressed, "the US will be doomed to suffer other calamities every bit the equal of the financial crisis."

Recently, Lawrence Summers proved - beyond a shadow of a doubt - the veracity of these two conclusions.

The Financial Times published an article profiling President Trump's latest candidate for a position on the Federal Reserve, Judy Shelton, (1). Among the most conspicuous differences between Shelton and her potential future Fed colleagues is she is completely dubious of the Fed's ability to accurately set interest rates. In fact, she likens the entire notion of the Fed being as actively involved in the economy as it currently is, as being little different than Soviet-style central planning! A position I both wholeheartedly agree with and endorse!

However, in response to the Financial Times article, Summers tweeted, "Judy Shelton does what I would have not thought possible. She falls well below Cain or Moore as a potential Federal Reserve governor. Hers would be a dangerous appointment." (2) In this tweet, Summers captures the enormous psychological defects that nearly all of the Confederacy of Dunces have. Summers speaks as if he had nothing to do with what has been happening in the country for the past thirty years, or as if the Fed has some sort of unblemished record of success, and was thus beyond reproach. As the bursting of two enormous bubbles, and the apparent bursting of a third - even larger bubble now - clearly show, all sorts of economic assumptions and central banking practices need to be revisited. See the chart, which has been published on the site several times before, for visual evidence of the obvious economic defects the country has suffered through for decades.

http://www.the92ers.com/sites/default/files/Origami_II_0.png

Summers is both completely blind to the obvious need to redress some clearly faulty economic assumptions and his massive role in the promulgation of these incorrect assumptions. Moreover, if Summers had any academic or intellectual integrity - which he most certainly does not - he would realize that Judy Shelton is hardly alone in her criticism of today's Federal Reserve, and its fatal, post-1971, infatuation with central planning via its Open Market Committee. Here is just a brief sampling of some of the well-respect economists and financiers who were deeply skeptical of a central bank assuming even a small fraction of the power the Fed currently has;

  • Walter Bagehot, "In a crisis, a central bank can lend freely, but only against good collateral and only at high rates of interest."
  • Dr. Benjamin Anderson, "The first four sources of capital - direct capitalization, (consumer saving), business thrift and, finally, taxation for capital purposes, are all wholesome, sound and safe. They have never been overdone; no country has ever gone wrong in creating capital these ways. The great troubles of the 1920s grew out of a fifth source of capital, namely new bank credit for capital purposes." (3) (i.e. a central bank creating bank reserves out of thin air)
  • Wilhelm Ropke, "If in the production of goods the most important pedal is the accelerator, in the production of money it is the brake. To ensure that this break works automatically and independently of the whims of government and the pressure of parties and groups seeking 'easy money,' has been one of the main functions of the gold standard. That the liberal should prefer the automatic brake of gold to the whims of government in its role of trustee of a managed currency is understandable." (4)
  • Fischer Black (of Black-Scholes option pricing fame), "I believe that in a country like the US, with a smoothly working fianncial system, the government does not, cannot, and should not control the money stock in any significant way. The government does, can only, and should simply respond passively to shifts in the private sector's demand for money. Monetary policy is passive, can only be passive and should be passive. The pronouncements of the Federal Reserve Board on monetary policy are a charade." (5)

All the people quoted here are completely sympathetic to Judy Shelton's skepticism of not just the ability of the Fed to set interest rates, but the enormous dangers inherent with the Fed attempting to do so. Moreover, the dust still hasn't finished settling from the collapse of the housing bubble! Yet Summers can still haughtily claim it is Judy Shelton that is dangerous and the Fed isn't some sort of menace?

The facts surrounding all this are completely clear, and a psychologically healthy person would have no problem seeing them. In particular, the time has long since passed when all of the operating assumptions around the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee need to be revisited. That Lawrence Summers - with his degrees from Harvard and MIT, and his Wall Street millions - can't draw the correct conclusions from such obvious facts proves he is the danger, not Judy Shelton. He also proves the two foundational conclusions on my website are completely correct.

Peter Schmidt
Sugar Land, TX
June 02, 2019

http://www.the92ers.com/blog/lawrence-h-summers-archetypal-dunce-among-c...

Marcus
Jun 25, 2019 - 4:33pm

c'mon, silver!

Lone Ranger Opening Theme

or

The Lone Ranger Hi Ho Silver Johnny Depp
Jun 25, 2019 - 4:25pm

Good day

Good to work off some overboughtedness today without too much damage.

Also good to get Comex option expiry behind us. The rest of the week may remain challenging with LBMA and quarter end stuff Friday.

However, I remain optimistic that CDS will move some to "catch up" by early next week at the latest.

chrtoo
Jun 25, 2019 - 4:03pm

Ag!

Thanks Craig! Weird day!

CHR.

P.S. Thanks for the compact version of IGWT!

happycamper515
Jun 25, 2019 - 3:14pm

@mavens

You and your wife did something very few would do taking in OEW 13 years ago. I'm sure he had a much better life than he ever could have imagined. RIP OEW.

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10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
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10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
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10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
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9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
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Forum Discussion

by FrankMUQAQ, 2 hours 54 min ago
by HappyNow, 11 hours 33 min ago
by 11IMIX, Oct 28, 2020 - 8:49pm
randomness