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TFMR Podcast - Monday, June 3 - A Visit With The Jackass

58

In lieu of a podcast today, here's an informal discussion of current events with our old friend, The Golden Jackass himself, Jim Willie.

This was meant to be a wide-ranging discussion where the conversation takes Jim and I to wherever we end up. And everything was fine...until...at about the 26:00 mark, my voice becomes Daffy Duck on helium, sped up to 78 rpm. I tried to edit and splice the rest of the call together but you'll definitely notice when it happens. You'll also get a kick out of the few moments of Daffy voice that were impossible to edit out.

Regardless, this is some solid, thought-provoking stuff from The Jackass and, with no regular podcast today, I think you'll enjoy listening.

TF

  58 Comments

AJwhiteshirt
Jun 3, 2019 - 9:11pm

Fukishima?

Always like to listen to Jim. The Fukishima connection for not using the U.S. Dollar caught me a bit off guard. The Japanese nuclear catastrophe was due to an underground earthquake right?

AJWhiteshirt

Belladonna
Jun 3, 2019 - 9:17pm

Outback

I think it’s time for you to consider a walk about. We’ll call you when it’s time to sell.


Jun 3, 2019 - 9:48pm

POSX

Lost it's 50-day today. If it doesn't almost immediately recover, it will soon test the 200-day.

mike97
Jun 3, 2019 - 10:01pm

Good day for the silver miners

Pretty good day for silver as well. I expect us to take out $15 in the next few days. My silver miners did well: FR (+ 5.36), PAAS (+4.84), SIL(+4.5), EXN(+11.11), MAG(+7.87), EDR(+7.92), and USA(+8.62). I bought back into SSRM (+2.27) but should have bought AXR (+12.68).


Jun 3, 2019 - 10:06pm

Jun 3, 2019 - 10:14pm

I will NEVER forget this

These protesters were mostly college students and I had just graduated from college a month earlier. I felt this deeply and will never forget nor forgive the Chicom bastards.

Island Teal AJwhiteshirt
Jun 3, 2019 - 11:26pm

Fukishima

As far as I know there was an earthquake, a tsunami, nuclear core meltdown, etc.....

never heard any connection to US Dollar

Blackwatersailor
Jun 4, 2019 - 12:42am

What I see in World Trade

The majority of the press has been misrepresenting the current trade tiff between the U.S. and China. They call it a "trade war". By doing so they hope to throw mud on the President. In reality he's simply trying to even the trade balance. For way too long the world has been allowing China to cheat on trade. 25% tariffs on all incoming trade to China. Heavy restrictions on any company trying to open in country coupled with heavy espionage and tech theft. It simply needs to stop. China and it's leaders need to understand and enforce contract law. Hell, law in general. The number one success of the U.S. and the west is it's adherence to contract law and law in general. When that is violated then trade breaks down.

We see on media that China is the upcoming power. I disagree. Until contract law becomes inviolate there is simply no chance in hell of China ever superceding the U.S. and the west. Otherwise India would have done it decades ago. Corruption in the political and legal system of both India and China will forever keep them from attaining first world status (both are doomed to follow the U.S.S.R. during the communist years). The same corruption has almost taken down the U.S. and is currently destroying the E.U.

I think that this is something that most people understand at a gut level but do not voice it.

AGXIIK
Jun 4, 2019 - 1:34am

This caused my eyebrows to raise

Another ZH article reported that Druckenmiller has liquidated his entire book and gone to 2 year treasuries. His thinking is that the market is untradable due algos and HFT I think he's just running his family office with his wife. He keeps a low profile overall. His annual return for decades is 30% and he learned his skills as a protege of Soros

The last time I traded into JNUG and juniors was right after Trump was elected.. I figured Trump would be good for gold. What I failed to see is that Druck exited his $300,000,000 position in GDX a few weeks before Soros did the same. I did not heed that trade to my loss in JNUG because gold and silver shit the bed.

Druck, Soros and others saw what would happen and played the market like Trump would not win but their insider knowledged based on their own presidential polling showed them Trump would win.

They are the insider's insiders. Their play on gold was to trade out since they surmised correctly it drop in price but they also put it out there that they though gold price would rise after Trump was elected, thus suckering in the people who did not have the inside intel on Trump's affect on gold. They sold their positions with some exceptional profits to Muppets who did not have the intel that Trump would win.

Whether Trump was positive for gold is moot I think he was not because the stock market went straight up for nearly 2 years and gold has been in the stink hole since December 2016

Now he and others are fleeing the market Druck trades into 2 year treasuries because he's convinced the fed will drop rates 50-100 BPS.

Why?

Because they have to when the economy starts sucking pond water

That drop in 2 yr T's to ZIRP will make the 2.00% bonds worth a whole lot more. Safe and solid with a 2% yield, a great parking lot went the market slides and a good yield profit If Druckenmiller dives back into gold that will the bell ringer

While Druck didn't say he was reentering the gold trade yet, if he does I will pile on in earnest Druckenmiller knows his stuff like few do

Joseph Warren
Jun 4, 2019 - 5:06am

"It's the lousy money."

The parasite fiat 'money' system is at the root of the vast majority of America's problems. Protecting that system (owned privately) has been the driving motivation of American economic, political, and military policy since WW1. If one doubts this, consider the notion of the 'petro-dollar' and the military resources expended (and wars fought) by America in the Middle East in order to protect it.- - Similarly, modern China couldn't even feed their own population in the 1970s. They did not rise to become a world industrial and economic power on their own. The loss of purchasing power of the dollar over time made US industry and labor uncompetitive. (Americans needed more of them each year in order to survive). So, industry was off shored. In order to protect their export trade in the face of the long term destruction of dollar purchasing power, - which weakened the dollar over time in relation to the yuan, - the Chinese used their pile of earned dollars to buy US Treasuries. Between their cheap goods and impact on borrowing rates, China helped hide the long term destruction of dollar purchasing power caused by bankster parasite 'money'. Yes, the Chinese commit all types of crimes including stealing of intellectual property and counterfeiting of goods. But, in terms of harm, this is nothing in comparison to that caused by 'the lousy money' (a term used by David Stockman.) Blaming our problems on China reminds me of when Nixon blamed 'currency speculators' before reneging on redeeming paper fiat dollars for gold. Politicians always blame 'speculators' and other outside forces. When bankers ultimately put them in power, they know who not to blame.

The parasitic fiat 'money' system eventually kills its host. We are seeing this now. This is one reason we buy PMs. I am deeply saddened by what's happening to America. We could solve our problems if we aimed at its cause - the lousy money - but no one has done that since it was created more than a century ago.

https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2019/05/29/western-supremacy-is-on-its-...

bookers126
Jun 4, 2019 - 6:57am

90

GSR now over 90!

Ozymandias
Jun 4, 2019 - 8:31am

RE: Blackwatersailor--China Tariffs

I have not been able to find anything that says that China imposes 25% tariffs on products they import from the U. S. The following was apparently current in June 2015 and I can't find where they increased it across the board.

"In June 2015, China reduced a number of import tax rates for clothing, footwear, skincare products, diapers and other consumer goods to boost domestic consumption. The average reduction is more than 50 percent. Specifically, import tariffs for suits and fur garments will be reduced from 14–23 percent to 7–10 percent, import tariffs on shoes and sports shoes will be reduced from 22–24 percent to 12 percent, import tariffs for paper diapers will be reduced from 7.5 percent to only 2 percent, and import tariffs for skincare products will be reduced from 5 percent to 2 percent. "

https://www.export.gov/article?id=China-Import-Tariffs

AGXIIK
Jun 4, 2019 - 8:41am

GTSR at 90 bookers126 !? Warning warning Will Robinson

That's thrilling and frightening at the same time. One ounce of gold gets you 90 ounces of silver. Even with some trading friction, if one is able to sell 10 ounces gold at spot for $13,213 and buy silver $15.29, 59 cents over spot at some wholesale PM sites, you'd end up with maybe 865 ounces of silver. If you're a believer in silver being the premier moving in the precious metals world it's a no brainer trade.

The GTSR is my best indicator of recessionary trends and the ratio is screaming that the economy is going into a hard recession. The only indicator that says we are not is the manipulated GDP numbers that say the economy is still expanding.

The only thing that expanding is the bullshit econometric stats that say the GDP is still positive.

How does the economy crash?
Slowly at first, and then very fast.

I don't need more silver even if an ounce of gold gets me 86 ounces of gold but it's a heck of a trade

-SilverIsMoney-
Jun 4, 2019 - 9:04am

Man that...

Makes me wanna play the GSR!

I haven't bought any metal in 4years but damn if it isn't tempting to go trade in a gold oz right now for 90oz.

There's no way that ratio can last. We should end up back at 70 soon enough at which point id trade my silver back into gold. Not a bad way to pocket a roll of silver coins.


Jun 4, 2019 - 9:06am

Heads up...CGP speech

Chief Goon Powell is giving a speech at that Fed conference today.

The text of his speech will be released at 9:55 ET...in about 50 minutes.


Jun 4, 2019 - 9:18am

CGP

Love that Acronym.

When has CGP spoken and gold not been monkey-hammered? Here's to hopin' that he hints at cutting rates.

I'm currently long JNUG wishing I had not bought more last night. Thinking of getting out and staying on high ground at this point.

lakedweller2
Jun 4, 2019 - 9:28am

@KA Fitts

She mentioned that our current Repubs, Dems and Executive Branch passed FASB 56 (Approval of major, secretive accounting fraud) while they had the rest of us arguing about the Kavanaugh appointment. Be sure and get your Deep State right as this was an intentional criminal act by our “current leaders” to continue to steal without the permission of the people, the wealth of of our nation.

It emphasizes the continuing real threat to the country is Central Banking, dark banking/expenditures and transfer of wealth. We have to look down the Right hole.

EKW
Jun 4, 2019 - 9:31am

Jun 4, 2019 - 9:56am

CDG up $5 on CGP

And that's in just the first minute. Still climbing.

And then back down...


Jun 4, 2019 - 10:01am

if interested


Jun 4, 2019 - 10:05am
bently
Jun 4, 2019 - 10:08am

U.S. silver exports to India EXPLODE over past 6 months

517 metric tons September-February, 2019 vs 2 metric tons from March-August, 2019.

SRS Rocco notes that while (many) Americans use discretionary income to buy things they throw away, Indians use it to purchase silver (and gold) for investments

bently
Jun 4, 2019 - 10:10am
Blackwatersailor Ozymandias
Jun 4, 2019 - 10:36am

You Sir are Correct

Oz, yup I was wrong about the overall tariff. I didn't fact check after a long discussion with a buddy and 2 twofours of beer last night. I have yet to figure out how to lock my computer away from my alcoholic dark side.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–United_States_trade_war

Here is a list of the new tariffs.

https://www.universallogistics.ca/p/en/clientcare-trade-war-new-tariffs-...

There is a number of problems for western companies trying to enter the Chinese market. One is called guanxi . Really it means social connections with obligations. Kinda like "we only do business with people we know/are part of our group". This means you have to hire extra people you didn't account for and may end up being a lump on your ass you can't get rid of. A second is Government Controlled companies. If there is a government run company in the sector you want to work in you can pretty much forget about it. Officials will show up on your doorstep and demand explanations of your "secret sauce recipe" which will show up next month at said Government run company. Good luck competing with that albatros around your neck. Third is balant pay offs. Pay off the wrong guy and watch your company get closed or your product sit in customs forever. Which has been happening on and off. Yes, pay offs are a regular thing. They come in many forms. "Investments" in other companies is the new catch-phrase.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/27/china-us-business-1074184

Try to open a competing company against the nephew of the Trade dept Head and watch everything crash and burn. This "corruption" is another major hurdle which is invisible and damn hard to account for.

This does not happen in the west. Once again the rule of law in china is tied and run by the Political side. I contend that until this is fixed. China will never be a ruling power in the world.

I formally admit that I now owe Oz one beer. To be redeemed when he shows up in my town.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5053143/china-canada-canola-import-evidence/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/07/we-cant-tell-if-chinese-firms-work-...

AGXIIK
Jun 4, 2019 - 11:55am

The news hawks claim China is always in it for the long game

Aw horse shit!!

That might have worked when pundits repeated that China thinks in centuries when the west thinks in quarters and annual time periods. That long term thinking might have worked well 100 year ago, maybe even 50, when Mao was running the show. China thought in centuries when dynasties ruled for 500 years.

The problem then was 75,000,000 or more Chinese died due to the disasterous policies of Mao called the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward. Both were deadly disasters. Thinking that a century would fix things didn't exactly work out so well for the chairman

Century long thinking gets a country into the pattern of trying to move forward over decades or centuries when the world is moving forward at light speed. Some of this forward movement is good as poverty is reduced, incomes rise and standards of living grow exponentially. People live long healthier lives

Fast forward movement, particularly when it involved hundreds of trillions in unpayable debt, overleveraged banks, shaky economic foundations, hollow economies, billions of people who've yet to enjoy the new economic age, devastating ecological damage, weather changes that last decades and unforeseen problems that can crush a country in a quarter means the long waiting game played by China and President Xi will not work out well at all. Xi will see his head on a pike if the people grow unhappy with his presidency for life rule.

As Blackwatersailor has made clear China is not the all powerful country. It's problems are manifold and include a very fragile economy with twice the amount of bank leverage and loan structures that we have. The western world is somewhere between 50 and 100% greater leverage today than 2008.

China is an order or magnitude larger. If China and Xi think they can wait a century for China to overcome present problems and become the preeminent global power, they could also find their country set back 3 decades when their financing and banking system implodes.

They have no system to save themselves when their economy implodes due to failing banks, collapse of real estate values, delinquent loans totalling in the trillions, collateral calls on state run enterprises and an interior collapse of their economy because we, the western world have our own recession and stop buying their products.

I'd say we can live without their Chinese products more than they can live without a multi trillion dollar global market that supports their weak economy that might not be growing at all in the present day.

Tariffs exacerbate the problem and it will hit China far worse than the US. But all will be hurt by this in the short term.

Keynes said in 100 years we all will be dead. Central planning over a century time period is just high sounding bullshit that shortens lives.

It's like trying to predict how the USG will handle the 100% depletion of that phony accounting of the social security trust fund. It's as fake as Charles Ponzi or Bernie Madoff's period statements of financial health.

Fake.

The USG, the Fed and a new set of overpaid ignert idgit jackoffs in the Congress and WH will eff it up like they eff up everything else that has a dollar sign in front of it

It matters not what will happen in 100 years. It does matter what will happen in a year or even a month for that matter.

Hell, the average Joe doesn't have enough saved to pay for a new set of tires or a month's rent if it came to that fiscal Waterloo. One year means exactly dick.

10 years in this world of everything fake that can possibly be faked means China is believing it's own press releases just as Joe believes the tripe shoveled from his boob tube or smart phone on to his Melmac dinner ware. Bon appetit!

If you're old enough to remember Melmac dinner ware it's what Leave It To Beaver's June Cleaver used to serve dinner on.

Cheap and tacky. But you can still buy a complete set of this crap on E Bay for $127 with free shipping

I cringe when I recall eating off this nasty tacky dinnerware, even recalling the clacking sound of fork and knife on the plastic. Arghhhhh!

What made me so pissy this AM? Gold is up $50. I should be giddy

Oh yeah, Goon Powell belched; the market went up and PMs went down.

gf AJwhiteshirt
Jun 4, 2019 - 12:09pm

Fukishima

Jim gets a little woo woo at times. He refers to his belief that the Deep State has the ability to control the weather and initiate natural disasters.

Pashq11
Jun 4, 2019 - 3:56pm

JACKASS!!

Love me some Jackass on a Tuesday as a surprise.

Thanks Turd,

willsilvaa
Jun 4, 2019 - 10:06pm

India hoovers up 16.6 million oz....

..of silver last half. {from bentlys post,earlier}

That is a huge increase in their demand,over the previous half year period. Good for us....eventually. Probably mostly jewelery demand? Any members on the ground in India,i wondered.........but more closer to home ..what about those beautiful "runaway gaps' on the gdx and gdxj i am finally seeing interest in my miners. Silver one resources spiked 57%......gave back a little today.........

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