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TFMR Podcast - Monday, June 3 - A Visit With The Jackass


In lieu of a podcast today, here's an informal discussion of current events with our old friend, The Golden Jackass himself, Jim Willie.

This was meant to be a wide-ranging discussion where the conversation takes Jim and I to wherever we end up. And everything was fine...until...at about the 26:00 mark, my voice becomes Daffy Duck on helium, sped up to 78 rpm. I tried to edit and splice the rest of the call together but you'll definitely notice when it happens. You'll also get a kick out of the few moments of Daffy voice that were impossible to edit out.

Regardless, this is some solid, thought-provoking stuff from The Jackass and, with no regular podcast today, I think you'll enjoy listening.



Jun 4, 2019 - 10:06pm

India hoovers up 16.6 million oz....

..of silver last half. {from bentlys post,earlier}

That is a huge increase in their demand,over the previous half year period. Good for us....eventually. Probably mostly jewelery demand? Any members on the ground in India,i wondered.........but more closer to home ..what about those beautiful "runaway gaps' on the gdx and gdxj i am finally seeing interest in my miners. Silver one resources spiked 57%......gave back a little today.........

Jun 4, 2019 - 3:56pm


Love me some Jackass on a Tuesday as a surprise.

Thanks Turd,

Jun 4, 2019 - 12:09pm


Jim gets a little woo woo at times. He refers to his belief that the Deep State has the ability to control the weather and initiate natural disasters.

Jun 4, 2019 - 11:55am

The news hawks claim China is always in it for the long game

Aw horse shit!!

That might have worked when pundits repeated that China thinks in centuries when the west thinks in quarters and annual time periods. That long term thinking might have worked well 100 year ago, maybe even 50, when Mao was running the show. China thought in centuries when dynasties ruled for 500 years.

The problem then was 75,000,000 or more Chinese died due to the disasterous policies of Mao called the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward. Both were deadly disasters. Thinking that a century would fix things didn't exactly work out so well for the chairman

Century long thinking gets a country into the pattern of trying to move forward over decades or centuries when the world is moving forward at light speed. Some of this forward movement is good as poverty is reduced, incomes rise and standards of living grow exponentially. People live long healthier lives

Fast forward movement, particularly when it involved hundreds of trillions in unpayable debt, overleveraged banks, shaky economic foundations, hollow economies, billions of people who've yet to enjoy the new economic age, devastating ecological damage, weather changes that last decades and unforeseen problems that can crush a country in a quarter means the long waiting game played by China and President Xi will not work out well at all. Xi will see his head on a pike if the people grow unhappy with his presidency for life rule.

As Blackwatersailor has made clear China is not the all powerful country. It's problems are manifold and include a very fragile economy with twice the amount of bank leverage and loan structures that we have. The western world is somewhere between 50 and 100% greater leverage today than 2008.

China is an order or magnitude larger. If China and Xi think they can wait a century for China to overcome present problems and become the preeminent global power, they could also find their country set back 3 decades when their financing and banking system implodes.

They have no system to save themselves when their economy implodes due to failing banks, collapse of real estate values, delinquent loans totalling in the trillions, collateral calls on state run enterprises and an interior collapse of their economy because we, the western world have our own recession and stop buying their products.

I'd say we can live without their Chinese products more than they can live without a multi trillion dollar global market that supports their weak economy that might not be growing at all in the present day.

Tariffs exacerbate the problem and it will hit China far worse than the US. But all will be hurt by this in the short term.

Keynes said in 100 years we all will be dead. Central planning over a century time period is just high sounding bullshit that shortens lives.

It's like trying to predict how the USG will handle the 100% depletion of that phony accounting of the social security trust fund. It's as fake as Charles Ponzi or Bernie Madoff's period statements of financial health.


The USG, the Fed and a new set of overpaid ignert idgit jackoffs in the Congress and WH will eff it up like they eff up everything else that has a dollar sign in front of it

It matters not what will happen in 100 years. It does matter what will happen in a year or even a month for that matter.

Hell, the average Joe doesn't have enough saved to pay for a new set of tires or a month's rent if it came to that fiscal Waterloo. One year means exactly dick.

10 years in this world of everything fake that can possibly be faked means China is believing it's own press releases just as Joe believes the tripe shoveled from his boob tube or smart phone on to his Melmac dinner ware. Bon appetit!

If you're old enough to remember Melmac dinner ware it's what Leave It To Beaver's June Cleaver used to serve dinner on.

Cheap and tacky. But you can still buy a complete set of this crap on E Bay for $127 with free shipping

I cringe when I recall eating off this nasty tacky dinnerware, even recalling the clacking sound of fork and knife on the plastic. Arghhhhh!

What made me so pissy this AM? Gold is up $50. I should be giddy

Oh yeah, Goon Powell belched; the market went up and PMs went down.

Jun 4, 2019 - 10:36am

You Sir are Correct

Oz, yup I was wrong about the overall tariff. I didn't fact check after a long discussion with a buddy and 2 twofours of beer last night. I have yet to figure out how to lock my computer away from my alcoholic dark side.


Here is a list of the new tariffs.


There is a number of problems for western companies trying to enter the Chinese market. One is called guanxi . Really it means social connections with obligations. Kinda like "we only do business with people we know/are part of our group". This means you have to hire extra people you didn't account for and may end up being a lump on your ass you can't get rid of. A second is Government Controlled companies. If there is a government run company in the sector you want to work in you can pretty much forget about it. Officials will show up on your doorstep and demand explanations of your "secret sauce recipe" which will show up next month at said Government run company. Good luck competing with that albatros around your neck. Third is balant pay offs. Pay off the wrong guy and watch your company get closed or your product sit in customs forever. Which has been happening on and off. Yes, pay offs are a regular thing. They come in many forms. "Investments" in other companies is the new catch-phrase.


Try to open a competing company against the nephew of the Trade dept Head and watch everything crash and burn. This "corruption" is another major hurdle which is invisible and damn hard to account for.

This does not happen in the west. Once again the rule of law in china is tied and run by the Political side. I contend that until this is fixed. China will never be a ruling power in the world.

I formally admit that I now owe Oz one beer. To be redeemed when he shows up in my town.



Jun 4, 2019 - 10:10am
Jun 4, 2019 - 10:08am

U.S. silver exports to India EXPLODE over past 6 months

517 metric tons September-February, 2019 vs 2 metric tons from March-August, 2019.

SRS Rocco notes that while (many) Americans use discretionary income to buy things they throw away, Indians use it to purchase silver (and gold) for investments

Jun 4, 2019 - 10:05am

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Jun 4, 2019 - 10:01am

if interested

LIVE: Jerome Powell says the Fed is "closely monitoring" the trade situation at a Chicago conference. Watch ▶️https://t.co/EYmHTvbi73 pic.twitter.com/1TM101HSbZ

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) June 4, 2019
Jun 4, 2019 - 9:56am

CDG up $5 on CGP

And that's in just the first minute. Still climbing.

And then back down...

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

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