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TFMR Podcast - Monday, June 3 - A Visit With The Jackass


In lieu of a podcast today, here's an informal discussion of current events with our old friend, The Golden Jackass himself, Jim Willie.

This was meant to be a wide-ranging discussion where the conversation takes Jim and I to wherever we end up. And everything was fine...until...at about the 26:00 mark, my voice becomes Daffy Duck on helium, sped up to 78 rpm. I tried to edit and splice the rest of the call together but you'll definitely notice when it happens. You'll also get a kick out of the few moments of Daffy voice that were impossible to edit out.

Regardless, this is some solid, thought-provoking stuff from The Jackass and, with no regular podcast today, I think you'll enjoy listening.



Jun 4, 2019 - 10:06pm

India hoovers up 16.6 million oz....

..of silver last half. {from bentlys post,earlier}

That is a huge increase in their demand,over the previous half year period. Good for us....eventually. Probably mostly jewelery demand? Any members on the ground in India,i wondered.........but more closer to home ..what about those beautiful "runaway gaps' on the gdx and gdxj i am finally seeing interest in my miners. Silver one resources spiked 57%......gave back a little today.........

Jun 4, 2019 - 3:56pm


Love me some Jackass on a Tuesday as a surprise.

Thanks Turd,

Jun 4, 2019 - 12:09pm


Jim gets a little woo woo at times. He refers to his belief that the Deep State has the ability to control the weather and initiate natural disasters.

Jun 4, 2019 - 11:55am

The news hawks claim China is always in it for the long game

Aw horse shit!!

That might have worked when pundits repeated that China thinks in centuries when the west thinks in quarters and annual time periods. That long term thinking might have worked well 100 year ago, maybe even 50, when Mao was running the show. China thought in centuries when dynasties ruled for 500 years.

The problem then was 75,000,000 or more Chinese died due to the disasterous policies of Mao called the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward. Both were deadly disasters. Thinking that a century would fix things didn't exactly work out so well for the chairman

Century long thinking gets a country into the pattern of trying to move forward over decades or centuries when the world is moving forward at light speed. Some of this forward movement is good as poverty is reduced, incomes rise and standards of living grow exponentially. People live long healthier lives

Fast forward movement, particularly when it involved hundreds of trillions in unpayable debt, overleveraged banks, shaky economic foundations, hollow economies, billions of people who've yet to enjoy the new economic age, devastating ecological damage, weather changes that last decades and unforeseen problems that can crush a country in a quarter means the long waiting game played by China and President Xi will not work out well at all. Xi will see his head on a pike if the people grow unhappy with his presidency for life rule.

As Blackwatersailor has made clear China is not the all powerful country. It's problems are manifold and include a very fragile economy with twice the amount of bank leverage and loan structures that we have. The western world is somewhere between 50 and 100% greater leverage today than 2008.

China is an order or magnitude larger. If China and Xi think they can wait a century for China to overcome present problems and become the preeminent global power, they could also find their country set back 3 decades when their financing and banking system implodes.

They have no system to save themselves when their economy implodes due to failing banks, collapse of real estate values, delinquent loans totalling in the trillions, collateral calls on state run enterprises and an interior collapse of their economy because we, the western world have our own recession and stop buying their products.

I'd say we can live without their Chinese products more than they can live without a multi trillion dollar global market that supports their weak economy that might not be growing at all in the present day.

Tariffs exacerbate the problem and it will hit China far worse than the US. But all will be hurt by this in the short term.

Keynes said in 100 years we all will be dead. Central planning over a century time period is just high sounding bullshit that shortens lives.

It's like trying to predict how the USG will handle the 100% depletion of that phony accounting of the social security trust fund. It's as fake as Charles Ponzi or Bernie Madoff's period statements of financial health.


The USG, the Fed and a new set of overpaid ignert idgit jackoffs in the Congress and WH will eff it up like they eff up everything else that has a dollar sign in front of it

It matters not what will happen in 100 years. It does matter what will happen in a year or even a month for that matter.

Hell, the average Joe doesn't have enough saved to pay for a new set of tires or a month's rent if it came to that fiscal Waterloo. One year means exactly dick.

10 years in this world of everything fake that can possibly be faked means China is believing it's own press releases just as Joe believes the tripe shoveled from his boob tube or smart phone on to his Melmac dinner ware. Bon appetit!

If you're old enough to remember Melmac dinner ware it's what Leave It To Beaver's June Cleaver used to serve dinner on.

Cheap and tacky. But you can still buy a complete set of this crap on E Bay for $127 with free shipping

I cringe when I recall eating off this nasty tacky dinnerware, even recalling the clacking sound of fork and knife on the plastic. Arghhhhh!

What made me so pissy this AM? Gold is up $50. I should be giddy

Oh yeah, Goon Powell belched; the market went up and PMs went down.

Jun 4, 2019 - 10:36am

You Sir are Correct

Oz, yup I was wrong about the overall tariff. I didn't fact check after a long discussion with a buddy and 2 twofours of beer last night. I have yet to figure out how to lock my computer away from my alcoholic dark side.


Here is a list of the new tariffs.


There is a number of problems for western companies trying to enter the Chinese market. One is called guanxi . Really it means social connections with obligations. Kinda like "we only do business with people we know/are part of our group". This means you have to hire extra people you didn't account for and may end up being a lump on your ass you can't get rid of. A second is Government Controlled companies. If there is a government run company in the sector you want to work in you can pretty much forget about it. Officials will show up on your doorstep and demand explanations of your "secret sauce recipe" which will show up next month at said Government run company. Good luck competing with that albatros around your neck. Third is balant pay offs. Pay off the wrong guy and watch your company get closed or your product sit in customs forever. Which has been happening on and off. Yes, pay offs are a regular thing. They come in many forms. "Investments" in other companies is the new catch-phrase.


Try to open a competing company against the nephew of the Trade dept Head and watch everything crash and burn. This "corruption" is another major hurdle which is invisible and damn hard to account for.

This does not happen in the west. Once again the rule of law in china is tied and run by the Political side. I contend that until this is fixed. China will never be a ruling power in the world.

I formally admit that I now owe Oz one beer. To be redeemed when he shows up in my town.



Jun 4, 2019 - 10:10am
Jun 4, 2019 - 10:08am

U.S. silver exports to India EXPLODE over past 6 months

517 metric tons September-February, 2019 vs 2 metric tons from March-August, 2019.

SRS Rocco notes that while (many) Americans use discretionary income to buy things they throw away, Indians use it to purchase silver (and gold) for investments

Jun 4, 2019 - 10:05am

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Jun 4, 2019 - 10:01am

if interested

LIVE: Jerome Powell says the Fed is "closely monitoring" the trade situation at a Chicago conference. Watch ▶️https://t.co/EYmHTvbi73 pic.twitter.com/1TM101HSbZ

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) June 4, 2019
Jun 4, 2019 - 9:56am

CDG up $5 on CGP

And that's in just the first minute. Still climbing.

And then back down...

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Key Economic Events Week of 3/1

3/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 1:00 ET Goon Brainard
3/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
3/3 12:00 ET Goon Bostic
3/3 2:00 ET Goon Evans
3/4 8:30 ET Unit Labor Costs
3/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/4 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell
3/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 2/22

2/22 10:00 ET LEIII
2/23 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/23 10:00 ET CGP at US Senate
2/24 10:00 ET CGP at US House
2/24 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
2/25 8:30 ET Jobless claims
2/25 8:30 ET Durable goods
2/25 10:30 ET Goon Bullard
2/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
2/26 8:30 ET Core inflation
2/26 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/26 10:00 ET UMich sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/15

2/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/17 8:30 ET PPI
2/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
2/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
2/17 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/18 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/18 8:30 ET Import price index
2/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/19 9:45 ET Markit Feb flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/8

2/8 12:00 ET Goon Mester speech
2/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
2/10 8:30 ET CPI
2/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
2/10 2:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
2/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/1

2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
2/3 8:15 ET ADP employment report
2/3 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
2/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
2/4 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/4 10:00 ET Factory orders
2/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 1/25

1/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/26 1:30 ET Comex option expiration
1/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/27 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
1/27 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
1/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
1/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
1/20 12:00 ET POTUS Inauguration
1/21 ECB meeting and rate decision
1/21 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
1/22 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 1/11

1/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
1/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
1/13 8:30 ET CPI
1/13 1:00 ET Goon Brainard speech
1/13 2:00 ET Beige Book
1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/4

1/4 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
1/4 10:00 ET Construction Spending
1/5 Georgia U.S. Senate election
1/5 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
1/6 US election certification
1/6 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
1/6 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
1/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/8 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
12/22 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/22 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
12/23 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/23 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
12/23 8:30 ET Core Inflation

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