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TFMR Podcast - Thursday, January 31

This is a free public podcast. Given the circumstances, you should take time to listen.


It was a decent day as a follow-up to the fireworks of yesterday. And now we await the BLSBS tomorrow, aware of the fact that we've had a pretty nice 5-day run and we may be due for a brief pullback.

But for today, we simply assess where we've been, where we are and where we're heading. As to the latter, the biggest signal of future Fed policy is coming from the bond market, so that's where we begin the discussion today.

Though we don't want to overlook the importance of the POSX:

We check the updated charts of both CDG and CDS:

And we close with another check on the mining shares.

Thanks for listening and be ready for a very interesting end to the week tomorrow.


p.s. Due to the circumstances, I thought we'd make this a public podcast as an example of what we do here every day. Membership at TFMR is just $12/month or 40¢/day and a subscription in 2019 has never been more valuable. Therefore and for a limited time, all new subscribers have an opportunity to receive half off their first month subscription. Simply visit this page: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe and then enter the coupon code MAXOUT2019 at checkout. Now's the time to join us at TFMR. 2019 and 2020 are going to be terrific years for precious metal investors. Don't miss out on the fun!


Jan 31, 2019 - 8:57pm
Jan 31, 2019 - 9:06pm

How About That USD/CNY

You just never know when the dollar gets strong. And... gold goes down.

indiana rod
Jan 31, 2019 - 9:13pm


It appeared that something changed last Friday. Could one of the reasons be the news that, according to Goldseek, Central Banks bought more gold in 2018 than any year since 1967, 651.5 tonnes, 74 % more than 2017.

Jan 31, 2019 - 9:18pm

Sokoman Iron?

Does anyone know what happened with Sokoman Iron today? Looks like panic selling on a press release that raises some concern but not worthy of a full on panic. I'm beginning to think that maybe I missed something important and am now holding shares of hope after a 38% drop today? Sprott owns part of the company, did anyone hear anything from him?

Craig, would you be willing/able to ask his views in the Sprott Weekly Wrap-up tomorrow?


Jan 31, 2019 - 9:21pm
Jan 31, 2019 - 9:41pm

Pharmacy Math??????

I have worked hard to avoid any pills from my local doctor. He said, a few years ago: "Your to fat, lose some weight". So I did. He said: "Your a1c is too high, lose weight and watch the carbs ", and I did. He said :Your blood pressure is too high and I want to put you on some pills", and they almost killed me.

So, it took some time, off of all pills, except I keep a supply of blood pressure medication in case of an emergency. I needed a refill today for my old medication had expired last year. They are expensive, 30 little pills for $95, but worth having "if" I eat 3 pizzas, a large bowl of chili, and a full rack of BBQ ribs. Ha! So, I told the Dr., "I would like a pill cutter, only taking half of a pill if I need one". He said that sounded good.

I headed to the pharmacy, they gave me only 15 pills instead of 30 for the same $95. They said it was still a 30 day supply even though I was only using half a pill that I would need to cut. Now that is how the system works.

Jan 31, 2019 - 9:55pm

sokomon iron

I apologize to the board

I bought 20,000 shares this morning at 9:45

my streak in jr's continues

I guess capital losses can offset those future gains

oy vey


Jan 31, 2019 - 10:03pm

Google ads are definitely

Google ads are definitely based on other sites you have visited. It may be an indirect connection, but Google is certainly analyzing your site visits and making assumptions about other things you might like to see.

For example, I recently looked for a pair of shoes online. What am I seeing now? Ads for boots, jeans, sweaters, etc. They are making a guess that because I looked for shoes, I might be looking for other clothes.

Jan 31, 2019 - 10:04pm

Ah, but Google has already

Ah, but Google has already said the next major version of Chrome will block ad blockers. And I'm sure the others will follow suit.

Jan 31, 2019 - 10:21pm


Just ANOTHER violation of the @CMEGroup position limits.
As you know (I hope), the front/delivery month position limit in Comex gold is 3,000 contracts.
Below you can see that Goldman was short (and thus delivered) 4,005 contracts today.
Rules should apply to everyone! pic.twitter.com/Tr2gTJ0G8H

— TF Metals Report (@TFMetals) February 1, 2019

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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