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2018 In Review With Jim Willie

Jim Willie recaps 2018 and looks ahead to 2019.

126

In his own inimitable fashion, our old pal The Golden Jackass stopped by today to share his thoughts on the year that was and the year that soon will be.

This podcast can be broken into two segments. In the first, Jim lists nine events or topics that dominated 2018. Some of these you'll know and some of these will no doubt be items you may have overlooked. In the second segment, Jim looks ahead to 2019 and gives you five, key themes to closely monitor.

Thanks again to Jim for his time today. I hope you enjoy this podcast and then have a safe, relaxing pre-holiday weekend.

TF

  126 Comments

AKA AuAgforever AIJ
Dec 29, 2018 - 11:12am

Billhilly / 2019

2019 has potential to be phenomenal for the metals;

If things close where they are on Monday, then;

  • Gold seems to be the best performing asset this year at + 2%
  • Silver down -4%
  • Bitcoin down -77% ( NOTE: with a 2 year performance Bitcoin is still up + 67% )
  • The Dow down -6.5%

Asset diversification is always wise.

goldcom
Dec 29, 2018 - 11:23am

Billhilly

Your humor and thoughtfulness will be missed around here but dealing the evilness of the manipulation and management of perception of the PM markets is a difficult game to deal with.

Wishing you the best...

Marcus
Dec 29, 2018 - 11:41am

Billhilly

Conscientious to the last, you and your musings will be missed. You're a good man. Best wishes to you (and to all of us) in 2019 for health, prosperity, wisdom and humility (gonna miss seeing that handsome face of yours also!).


Dec 29, 2018 - 11:42am

Billhilly--hope you stop by regularly

Just being aware of the mechanics of the manipulation has helped me to dodge some of the most brutal beatings the past two years. We'd love to see you make acomment now and then on these public threads.

Perhaps Turd will consider your suggestion about making more content available to the public to some degree. I agree that this site has some of the best reading on the internet.

AGXIIK
Dec 29, 2018 - 12:02pm

What do these four things have in common?

TFMR subscribers

Gold

Silver

Rented Mules

All are beaten regularly. 

8 years of beatings might actually be coming to an end.  TIme for TFMR subscribers and mules to rise up and say

"I'm made as hell and I'm not going to take it any more"

Mules? 

It kind of comes out as Hee Haw Hee Haw  But you get the message

I'm looking forward to 2019 and plan to take more than a few swings at the markets and other annoyances.   Bat 'er up.

Golden Turtle
Dec 29, 2018 - 1:17pm
Landowner
Dec 29, 2018 - 1:35pm

@Landowner, you still have an

@Landowner, you still have an active subscription, and you are still using the subscription that we had from the old site.

You cannot sign up for a new subscription until the old one ends after 8:26pm US Eastern tonight.

There are no issues with renewals or storing a card on file. Please wait until the current subscription ends. Thanks.


Dec 29, 2018 - 1:46pm

One other comment about

One other comment about adding a card on file. Want to make sure it is clear the postal code needs to be added *twice*. The first time is the postal code for the billing address. The second time is the postal code for the credit card.

The reason this has to be added twice is there are people who have a billing address and credit card address that are not the same. Some have their credit card statements sent to a post office box, so it may have a different postal code than the actual billing address.

See the picture below. This can be accessed from the "Stored Cards" tab in your user profile.


Dec 29, 2018 - 2:00pm

@Landowner, one final comment

@Landowner, one final comment... I can confirm we have quite a few people who have signed up on the new site using Canadian postal codes, so there shouldn't be an issue if you're using a Canadian address.

RickshawETF
Dec 29, 2018 - 2:59pm

Billhilly

You will be missed, my friend.  Your musings, insights, and [often well-articulated] thoughts have added much to this site.

I suspect that there are many Turdites who are closer to their breaking point (whether philosophically, economically, or spiritually) than they'd care to admit.  I went "all-in" in early 2013, thinking the EOTGKE was imminent -- I have paid the price . . . 

Another year of "kicking the can down the road" (continued irrationality) will probably find me cut-and-pasting your farewell posting for my own!

Wishing you all the best.

Rickshaw

Angry Chef
Dec 29, 2018 - 3:38pm

BREAKING! - Hillary Detained? - "W" Interview

RogueNews - BREAKING! - Hillary Detained? - "W" Interview

Before anyone gets too excited. The claim of "W" in this interview does NOT state 100% that Hillary has been detained. Just that it looks and appears that she and Brennan and others have been detained. Are we soon to find out why GITMO needed a billion plus dollar reno ?

Angry Chef
Dec 29, 2018 - 3:45pm
onesong
Dec 29, 2018 - 3:49pm

Dear Billhilly,

My favorite poster of all time! I am so delighted  to hear of your departure. Finally, someone who cares so deeply as you, has made up his mind to not continue in the insanity of this financial system. I know all too well turning you back was a very long and painful journey and very hard to come to. I commend you on your decision.

I guess we both have been reading and feeling pretty much the same way. I too have been weaning myself off the lying, cheating and stealing but it’s almost like an addiction… I hate it, then here I am back at it again. Just today, after jumping back into the miners for the 1st quarter run up we get David Bradley expecting gold to pull back. As many times as I have said to myself “I’m done!” I lied... It’s not a healthy place to be.

You Sir have shown such care, compassion, integrity, honesty, deep thoughtfulness and understanding. Wonderful writer and just one hell of a soul in this universe! You take care of yourself up there in that gorgeous cabin view of yours and enjoy the miracle of your mind, body and soul… Godspeed Bill!

Angry Chef
Dec 29, 2018 - 3:58pm

The entrance to the Banque de France has been engulfed by...

...flames and other fires have also been started. Again, in Rouen

https://twitter.com/Jordan_SP1/status/1078994136907350016?ref_src=twsrc%...

Looks like some of the French are starting to figure out what we in Turdville have known for a long time. Central Banking and usury and the Political hacks that support it have to go ! Off with their heads !

silver10sguy
Dec 29, 2018 - 4:18pm

All the Best to You Billhilly

We can all appreciate the many years of manipulation and corruption taking a toll upon you.  I have enjoyed your thoughts and comments for many years.  Recently you expressed your decision to most likely step away.  This past week you were in my thoughts as it's very possible the Deep State crimes come into the LIGHT in January.   I truly believe aside from the arrests that gold and silver are soon to be released in 2019.  Several of President Trump's Executive Orders begin in early January.  One clue just happened in recent days as those notable on the DARK side like Hilary, Obama, Brennan, Comey, etc have NOT tweeted for several days.  Why are they so quiet at the same time?  Have they arrested?  We shall soon find out but I really hope for your sake Billhilly that truth, justice, and the end of gold and silver manipulation ALL come into the LIGHT in January 2019!

AngryCitizen
Dec 29, 2018 - 4:21pm

Turd, BH's Suggestion Could Be "Problematic"

As the more popular you get, the more likely you and your family would be targets of TPTB. (Maybe this has happened to Uncle Ted and crew?)

Education is a good thing, but the student must be ready for it, right?

Just my thoughts and concern for you and yours.

AngryCitizen
Dec 29, 2018 - 4:24pm

BillH

I urge you to stay informed from at least a semi reliable site & posters. I have, for years now, limited my exposure to "news" sites, don't watch main stream at all, and still manage to keep abreast of the essentials thru TFMR & posters comments while spending the majority of my free time with my family and friends. I have no regrets, and don't expect them. 

But you are right to "re-balance" for a bit if you find yourself oppressed, and media robbing your joy in life. That's a flag you should pay attention to. Life is short, and "suddenly you're not here anymore." But don't stop knowing how to prepare for the coming financial chaos, and don't stop "paying for insurance" to cover the inevitable, even tho it'd be good to stop thinking about getting rich over night, (which is a mistake, given the market riggers' control, resources and motivation).

All the best, and look forward to your check-ins.

AC

streber
Dec 29, 2018 - 4:29pm

billhilly et. al.

Hello Friends, Romans & Fellow PM'ers,

I just returned after a 2-month absence.
Sympathetic with billy but I am a follower of advice given by my friend & fellow Navy pilot Bob Moriarity; 

---
"Nobody Knows Anything: Investing Basics Learn to Ignore the Experts, the Gurus and other Fools"

This book is a contrarian's bible! Bob, provides a preponderance of historical empirical evidence of costly mistakes made by the dumb masses (Say that fast), time and time again because they follow followers rather than relying on their own intuition. This is an exceptional book on foundational, contrarian investing. If you are seeking to become a generational steward here is a book that will assist you in critical analysis and independent thinking on your endeavor. I found “Nobody Knows Anything” to be similar in theme to the “Richest Man In Babylon”.  Priceless wisdom.  Generational book.

5 STARS! ! !

https://provenandprobable.com/nobody-knows-anything-book-review/

The above is not me, it is a private review of Bob's book. 
---(kinda sad my friend is vilified by some)---

The difficulty for many of us here (imo) is that once your eyes are opened to the fraud & mismanagement of our country for past decades (aided, abetted & facilitated by the Federal Rsv System) it is difficult to unsee the sham.
Easy to become a "True Believer" (wonderful book written by the "Longshoreman philosopher", Eric Hoffer).  

Owning apartment buildings in SoCal, I became a True Believer in MidWest farmland at the peak in 1980 and it hurt, for a while.  I bought more at the bottom in 1987 and continued doing so.
Last purchase was in 2006 at about the same prices I paid at the 1980 peak, $3500. (26 year hold) It's worth $10k now and I cleared out a lot of debt in 2013 when I sold some at $13k.
I never, ever thought about quitting or getting out.  Like PMs, prime farmland is real and one of the few vehicles that will take you safely thru the approaching wormhole.

Having said all that, I am a speculator in PMs and have been tossed around like everyone else in the sector.  I'm down 30k this year.  (Just gained back 20k on the recent rally.)  Made 70k in 2017, lost 70k the year before.  I booked $110k in 2012 then quit MFGlobal before everyone got "Corzined." Stayed out a couple years.  It has been a frustrating and unbelievable ride since I got back in the game. No one (because Nobody Knows Anything) predicted this, Moriarty included, who predicted earlier this year $1240 would be the bottom. 
The disastrous predictions made around here, myself included, bear witness to just how much anyone "knows."

Nevertheless, I think we are close to something massive on the PM upside as the Federal Fraud (at all levels) is revealed.
I want to do in PM speculating what what Richard Dennis did in the early 70s speculating in soybeans: "In the early 1970s, he borrowed $1,600 from family members and reportedly made $200 million in about ten years."

I value this site for two reasons:
Craig's summary of daily events and the first class members here who post news & stories of interest to me.
Predictive value here is zero.  

I mean no disrespect but here is Eric Sprott since 2014:

(from ZH) Today...

“Big Things Can Happen This Year.” Eric Sprott Looks Ahead To 2019

Now let's travel back in time...

Eric Sprott: It’s Not Going To Take Much From Here To Get To $1400 Gold

December 29, 2017 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Eric Sprott’s 2017 Outlook: Is A BIG Rally Ahead For Gold & Silver Prices?

December 11, 2016 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Eric Sprott – Physical Gold & Silver on Verge of Breaking Paper Markets…”I will be Right!”

March 13, 2015 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Anyone remember..."QE is forever/the Fed is trapped and can't taper" narrative? 

This one took the gold ribbon in the "WTF?!?" category...

Sprott’s Thoughts: ‘Tapering’ Is Good for Gold

June 26, 2014 
===

streber out
 

streber
Dec 29, 2018 - 4:40pm

BTW, One of the best features of trading futes...

Is that, if you win, even a one hour or one day trade is treated as 60% LT gain & 40% ST.
NW VIEW
Dec 29, 2018 - 4:53pm

I see a differing scenario and it has started!

Billhilly may live in a place that we may want to live near. There are so many events taking place, around the globe and all of them are destructive. Before this is over, our gold/silver and stocks will become worthless.  Look at Europe, the Muslim invasion, the hundreds of thousands in camps like at Jordan, the black uprisings in South Africa and even the thousands heading north again from Central America.  The rule of law is over, as millions want to invade this once blessed land.  

I stated before that one of my grand kids told me her college campus is no longer safe.  Snowflake protestors every day, students of color screaming everywhere, and she is unable to address the women who think there are 60 genders.    The markets are a fraud, government leaders, both former and present, have their own laws and the sheep suffer. The U.N. has no teeth, NATO is heading for conflicts that they cannot win and our state/city/elected officials have embraced socialism/communism/and have a stick in their hands to tax all into poverty.  They are at the point of moving grandma into the streets of the cities. 

If the Salvation Army, local food banks, and outreach programs run out of funds, riots will be like the streets of Paris today. Even locally, in Olympia, hundreds of homeless are camped out in city provided tents and the downtown businesses are under attack. Thousands of rentals are being built to house the many who are selling their homes. A Christian cannot refuse to bake a cake for perverts without losing everything. 

Thousands of blinded denominations are all preaching their blinded view of the "Way of Life" and they seek the funds that are left over after our taxes, to build more buildings. (I will not go into this as deeply as I would like).

The planet is in a state of change. Volcanoes, earthquakes, rising tides, glacier melts, 120 degree temps in Australia, and not a true prophet to be found on the evening news.  Dreams and visions abound, few in agreement, and Hollywood/Disney still making films of witchcraft for our children. What could go wrong? 

I have been watching for a long season and what I see coming would frighten the strongest. The pattern has not changed, we are seen as fools, blinded by religion and lack of evidence. That will change in time. There is a famine in the land and it is not for food, yet.  The Jews, riding in the trains, were heading for a shower in WW2 and found out too late that a gas chamber awaited them.    There are cycles of time, set up by more than a "big bang" and we are seeing it unfold.      jmo          Jim     

Orange
Dec 29, 2018 - 5:50pm

Billhilly

Listen to your radio station and you will feel better.

https://www.pandora.com/station/play/4150444108628017325

Edit, now I have got to figure how to overcome billhiily's anxieties as well as just turning 60! WOW!

edit edit. The music helps

canary
Dec 29, 2018 - 6:52pm
canary
Dec 29, 2018 - 7:39pm

My prediction for the price of gold in December of 2019

                       smiley $2019 smiley

lakedweller2 canary
Dec 29, 2018 - 8:02pm

2019 Prediction

I hope your prediction is conservative.

garth
Dec 30, 2018 - 12:27am

jnug

Are you guys drinking too much rum n eggnog?  You don't hold jnug over the long-term!!!  I'm as bullish on the miners as anyone and I bought some jnug the other day - but it's not a long-term hold.  Remember how it turned out last time Dave Kranzler recommended that - he regrets that terrible advice.  jnug can work over a short-term - but will turn to nothing over the long-term - no matter how well miners do.  Good miners that care about the share structure you can hold over the long-term.  There are miners that are super-leveraged or extremely low priced because of tax-loss selling or capitulation right now that can go up up up without the decay of jnug.    

tommy
Dec 30, 2018 - 4:08am

Garth=absolutely right

Garth=absolutely right

Ozymandias
Dec 30, 2018 - 7:48am

Art Bell's prediction's for the New Year

Last night on Coast to Coast AM they re-broadcast Art Bell's program from 12/29/2001 where listeners called in  with their predictions for 2002. If you didn't know that it was recorded 17 years ago you could have easily believed it was being recorded 12/29/2018. The more things change, the more they remain the same. Perhaps the 25.1% increase in the price of gold during 2002 will be repeated this year although I feel that we will see more.

Keep stacking and a prosperous New Year for all.

canary
Dec 30, 2018 - 10:13am
canary
Dec 30, 2018 - 10:57am

I love rum n eggnog...

I agree with Garth on everything he wrote with the exception that JNUG will be a bad investment over the long term - no matter how the miners do. 

I consider one year to be a long term. 

1. If GDXJ is in downturn, holding JNUG will bring a disaster.

2. If GDXJ is relatively stable (zigzagging up and down), JNUG will go down in price, slow.

3. If GDXJ is in steady or strong uptrend, JNUG will go higher in price.... Still trading recommended on overbought conditions or COT (imo).

My personal plan for next year is to accumulate an hold miners...and trade JNUG and USLV.

Durop50
Dec 30, 2018 - 12:01pm

vaccine conspiracy

Jim has no idea what he is talking about when it comes to vaccines. I'm hearing nothing but nonsense conspiracy theory. Ask yourself what ever happened ot Polio, Small Pox, Measles, and multiple other horrible diseases; the answer is VACCINES! It makes me call into question the validity of everything else he has to say.

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