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TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, December 19

44

Well, what a day that was! While on one hand it's completely normal to have the Comex metals jerked around on an FOMC day, to have it happen on a day that we'll look back upon as being so structurally positive is interesting, to say the least.

So, that's where we begin this podcast...with frustration at the usual bullshit but also some positive reinforcement that this day will soon be forgotten.

For example, in the massive bull run of 2016, did you ever pause to remember how awful it felt to get the crap kicked out of you on FOMC day in December of 2015? Probably not. However, that's exactly what happened! In the 24-hour aftermath of that first FOMC rate hike, Comex gold fell $27 and Comex silver fell 55¢. Keep THAT in mind tonight, tomorrow and Friday.

And then to the charts. First, the immediate reaction in CDG, CDS and the S&P:

You can certainly see the macro reaction to today's events by reviewing the daily charts of the S&P and POSX:

Here are your updated CDG, CDS and HUI charts...the HUI being particularly egregious after it had the audacity of breaking out above 160 yesterday.

And finally, if you're confused by all you saw and heard today and you simply want to know WHEN the Fed's QT will end and QE4 begins, perhaps all you need to watch is the S&P Financial Sector. Any breakdown through 340 ought to do it!

Thanks for listening. Hang in there. Dawn is breaking.

TF

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  44 Comments

Craigo
Dec 19, 2018 - 6:23pm

Mornin all

Aussie 1st today?

Yes, our miners are getting a pummeling also.

RickshawETF
Dec 19, 2018 - 6:27pm

Silver!

Yeah, baby. That's what I'm talkin' about!

Stack on!

landplanner
Dec 19, 2018 - 6:30pm

HUI

Regarding the HUI, as many have said, miners are stocks.....stocks tanked.....baby got thrown out with the bath water. They'll go down in sympathy until gold regains it's safe haven status. That will happen in a flash, but until then, expect weakness as everyone searches for liquidity.

landplanner
Dec 19, 2018 - 6:49pm

Big Swinging Dick

Great commentary from Yra Harris: Notes From Underground: The Umpire Strikes Back The Fed chairman is situated as the key arbiter of the economy and rules via its DUAL MANDATE. Given that it has a research staff of at least 500 economists the FED positions itself as ALL KNOWING, which is certainly okay as long as it accepts the consequences and lays aside the use of counterfactuals when its policies may turn out to be very misguided. On Wednesday, investors judged the FOMC statement as a tad more hawkish than the Street anticipated. More importantly, at the press conference Chairman Jerome Powell positioned the FED as being comfortable in forecasting that growth for the coming year would be more ROBUST than the current stock market behavior is suggesting. In my opinion, Powell’s answer to the very astute Washington Post question about the ongoing balance sheet unwind was the tipping point for a greater read into the FED sustaining its current monetary policy path. Powell followed the work of SOMA overlord Simon Potter by maintaining the runoff process was proceeding smoothly, even with the FED raising interest rates. The Fed Chairman sent a message to the markets that he is in fact the new Sherman McCoy: The Big Swinging Dick (see Bonfire of the Vanities by Tom Wolfe). The FED chairman let President Trump and his minions Larry Kudlow, Steve Mnuchin, Peter Navarro and others that he is charge of monetary policy. As discussed in Notes From Underground several months ago, Powell is on a mission to increase risk premiums on an assortment of assets in an effort to let the air out of elevated asset prices brought on by QE. The bottom line is that Powell doesn’t give a lick about sustaining what he believes are mispriced assets. More importantly, Powell sent a message to major Wall Street commentators Kevin Warsh and Larry Lindsey that their opinions are exactly that: their opinions. President Trump must be suffering a severe bout of agita that he didn’t select Kevin Warsh as FED Chair. The hawkish tone did what was expected: The yield curves flattened in response to the failure to present a dovish tone going into the New Year. The DOLLAR turned and rallied and the early strength in GOLD gave way as the flattening yield curves put a bid to the DOLLAR.
canary
Dec 19, 2018 - 7:39pm

After playing strong and confident today...

I'd expect to see Powell's teammates painting more dovish Fed...to save markets and Powell's face for the March meeting.

As for miners...Turd is likely right...The selloff looks orchestrated, because some of the big producers were breaking out....GDX down 5.4%???

AGXIIK
Dec 19, 2018 - 7:41pm

Like I said to NW VIEW on the prior post

Rising rates crush all asset classes. If you hold an asset that's tied to rates, you will get crushed. Gold and silver are not totally immune but they are the only honest brokers in a world of bullshit and hurt.

karma polis
Dec 19, 2018 - 7:48pm

$21 TRILLION!?

Turd, Catherine Austin Fits and Dr Mark Skidmore declare that $21t has vanished from the DoD. That's a BIG war-chest for the "Exchange Stabilisation Fund"! Assuming that that's where all that ink wound up. (Having read / watched Eric de Carbonel's masterpiece, "What I Have Been Afraid to Blog About" in Marketskeptics.com several times, I think it's a fair assumption). To my question: Can't these twats keep this game up ad infinitum? I mean, if you can STEAL $21t from the American people in such a way that virtually nobody knows about it.....

Montross515
Dec 19, 2018 - 8:37pm

Stealing 21 Trillion

The Entire Fed system which has been very carefully created so the public can not understand what is going on. It .is bigger than the 21 Trillion we are talking about.

We will not ever unravel the swaps, give aways and complex stuff the Fed has done and is doing today. They are a law unto themselves.

What we will come to understand is Weimar Republic inflation, as too much money lands in our national money system. Germany lost her empire after the First World War; these were the millions forced to use German Marks. All those Marks repatriated against Germany.

Guess who is losing their monetary slaves, like China, Russia, etc? Hang onto your seats, the ride of a lifetime is beginning.

Joseph Warren
Dec 19, 2018 - 9:15pm

The American Crisis

Dec 19, 1776 - Thomas Paine publishes ‘The American Crisis’. The new nation is in deep trouble at the time. It’s birth is in great danger. General Washington and his army were barely holding on. The enlistment period for many of the general’s troops would expire on the first of January. Would they all abandon their commander and the struggle ? On Dec 23 General Washington had Thomas Paine’s pamphlet read to all the troops. They would go on to cross the Delaware River and win a decisive victory over the Hessian mercenaries on Christmas. This would provide the boost in morale that would keep Americans in the fight for their freedom.

These are the famous words heard by those Americans back then. Given the grave threat to our republic and our Liberty today, we should remember these words & teach them to our young ones -

“ These are the times that try men’s souls; the summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”

AGXIIK
Dec 19, 2018 - 9:28pm

How can these games go on for 60 years

Going back to 1950s kiddie school we were told >what to think< not <how to think>. Brains filled with mushy nonsense, rewritten history and PC gobbledegook, fed to the children and all was good.

When kids tried <how to think>, the schools and administrators fed powerful drugs to the brightest most curious and thus most dangerous to the system kids, frog marched into jail school.

Drugs like Ritalin and Adderol dull their minds, turning 30% of the kids into brain damaged drones, psychopathic killers and useful idiots.

Not satisfied with that, FaCIAbook and social media were unleashed with the sole purpose of addicting kids and parents to a mind controlling time suck singularity that the Google Twins and Zuck admitted was the plan all along.

Today Facebook is being outted on that scam but damage is done. FaCIAbook is ubiquitous, inflicting its maximum BORGitude on 2.5 billion people worldwide.

The remaining kids were told "Do not think, it's against the law, against human nature and it's just not nice to be smarter and better educated than your peers. Just take your meds and vaccinations and behave". Thus the total eradication of educational standards was complete with Soma and Moroccan Synthmesc

Once this plan was done, anything was possible. Simpletons and morons walk the earth, simulacrums of humanity, awed by 3 card monte miracles and the deus ex machina of technology, media and financialization of everything, hell bent on creating something even more worthless from the dregs of something that used to have value. The crowd shouts its approval

I was brain dead until 2011 and then woke up to a wasteland.


Dec 19, 2018 - 9:48pm

fwiw


Dec 19, 2018 - 9:49pm

and this is terrific

mike97
Dec 19, 2018 - 9:54pm

Thanks for the positive attitude Turd

I appreciated your upbeat attitude in the podcast. I was feeling pretty fed up with the situation.

The HUI got hammered and my only good miners were: Irving (IRV) up 10.8% and White Gold (WGO) up 4.2%.


Dec 19, 2018 - 10:17pm

S&P futures

Back to their lows of the day...


Dec 19, 2018 - 10:23pm

One more thing

Forgot to add today's Sprott link: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-endless-war-on-gold-and-silver.html

The preliminary OI numbers for today will be out soon. Any guesses on how many new contracts were created and fed to The Specs today? 5,000? 10,000??

goldcom
Dec 19, 2018 - 11:57pm

It's all Bull Shit

Todays market moves are a full orchestration of a fake market that is so ridiculous it's almost comical. Worse yet it has become the norm.

Some others have posted the latest on the missing $21 trillion missing that grew from the official $6.5 trillion. If you haven't watched it you should.

Dr Mark Skidmore is a professor of economics and a straight shooter and explains how after his graduate students went over the data of the government files and numbers what they found and soon after that the files were removed. K A Fitts did retain all that data at her Solari Report website.

Then in a Congressional hearing a DoD comptroller was questioned about the official $6.5trillion missing and discussed some $160 billion of double counted properties and was not asked further questions by our dip shit congress members who seemed to be satisfied.

Next the GAO and other government investigation took place and released their findings that all the numbers were redacted for National security purposes but just before the release a new committee has been appointed that determines if there are national security concerns and HAS THE POWER TO CHANGE WHAT IS NEEDED so we may after 10 years of absence get a Federal budget report that may add up but is complete bull shit.

No transparency, no credibility and certainly no apologies from our Congress and this is the new norm of how our government fixes things.

The word fleeced comes to my mind and should it surprise us that the largest defense contractor Lockheed Martin is also responsible for the accounting system for DoD. You just can't make this shit up.

The Pentagon's Missing Trillions: What You Need to Know
Libero
Dec 20, 2018 - 12:55am

Perspective

Sorry folks but I cannot share in the misery I am reading here tonite. Blame this, blame that, as if any of this is news to anyone who has been in turdville for a while. So much drama.

I for one, am not blaming what the fed did today, -I do blame them for keeping interest rates so low for so long, but then I can forgive that because this was done because we were on the brink of the final solution depression. Do we forget that? Should we have embraced a total collapse of the economy? This is what is done to stave off the collapse of a debt ridden economy that has grown out of control and can only feed on itself.

I blame Reagan for starting a military bloat with the Soviet Union and going over the line in deficit spending (just ask David Stockman).

I blame the waste of for profit health care spending and pharmas that have made health care unaffordable to most.

I blame Bush senior for not finishing off Saddam when he could, but then I suppose Bush 2 would have found another scape goat to shake up the rats nest called the Middle east. I blame Cheney, probably the most evil man of our age (can't wait to see the movie). All this debt of war, war has brought us to this point of explosion. If we go under, wouldn't it have been better if we had spent trillions on bridges, instead of war (and waste of human life).

I blame the puke in the white house and repubes in Congress for doing a stupid tax cut impetus program in the middle of a rising economy. What is left for stimulus when it will really be needed? Of course, more deficit spending.

So the "fed" will lower the interest rates they have just raised, and this will get the gubmint/citizenry to feel better about borrowing more and spending more beyond their means -cause they got credit and real estate is where the common man can get rich. Will turdville feel better with lower interest rates, of course.... but didn't many complain when interest rates were "artificially low" that seniors and savers were being robbed of their interest income? So which is it, high interest rates of low rates?

And where do precious metals fit into all this? I know we here are "wishing" "hoping" that we will be saved by the sudden interest in gold and silver by the masses. We don't need the common man to go out and buy the PMs. All we need is the same scenario that saw gold reach $1900 and silver $48. And what was that scenario? I don't really remember the catalyst that set those bulls runs. Alls I know is that it was "time" for these to rise, for the miners to rise, that they had suffered enough. And I get that same feeling right now.

So we don't need no Re-set, or manipulation blame game, or Fed Watch ad nauseum. It will happen, but please don't get all giddy greedy with hopes of $10,000 ounce gold or $300 ounce silver. I certainly hope not to see these prices in my lifetime (but I'm older than most and this talk sort of reminds me of bitcoin to the moon hoopla). Anyways... I guess I should proof read this and see if any of it makes sense. Better days a coming, be happy.

Golden Turtle
Dec 20, 2018 - 2:34am

Keep up the faith. She’s got a ticket to ride😎

The Beatles - Ticket To Ride

It looks very much like the pig is about to roll over 96. If the pig rolls over, wow get ready, get set, let’s go.

Powell is gonna make a very nice Xmas for everyone.

Silver is about to go nuts it feels. I got three mini futures at 14.64 with tight stops. I felt the dollar was going higher so I doubled down on a winning hand and lost when it dropped from 96.50 to 96.15 very rapidly. That is a sign to me it’s going to roll over... I could be wrong... but...

It looks like SHE has a ticket to ride!

Thomas More
Dec 20, 2018 - 4:37am

keeping my sanity

thank you Turd, AGX, et al for the humorous posts - may as well laugh about our situation. Meanwhile (dawn over here) Gold is climbing back out of the gutter - and maybe we should too! Have a "Wake up and smell the coffee" moment, kiss your wifey, telephone Bill Hilly, go out Christmas Caroling ... Cause the Grinch is not going to steal my joy! The Satanists are playing a losing hand:

Crude Oil touching new lows this morning, stocks on their backsides - I have a hard time seeing the good that this move will provide other than killing the bond shorts - perhaps draining the derivative market of its excesses.

Two charts this morning for your perusal: we often forget that Gold is not an "American" USD asset- Gold has been doing quite well thank you in EUR currency. The other is CDE which has been one of my wasting assets has shown some life recently - chart watching has a tendency of taking on similar formations in different stocks and indices.

Mickey
Dec 20, 2018 - 5:27am

Middle of night wake up

wife forgot to turn down heat after a late majjong game. So i was too warm.

and due to how much my paper account was up in am and down in pm.

but i just woke up ans saw gold at 1256 and had to check a different site then different ipad to make certain. Now i hope it lasts till after nyse open as late yesterday i bought a lot of jnug 8.50 call expiring friday.. i was regretting buying those wednesday, so was very pissed at myself.

looks like Powell might have screwed things up unless he did this intentionally . And for a right reason as we do have too much excess in the syste.

I see usd down, oil down, spx futures only a little down, although lately thing are in a very fast market.

higher rates gonna be tough on all the companies with negative tangible net worth due to leveraging their buybacks. And the economy thus if market continues to sell, pensions and insurance companies and banks, the big boys with big portfolios and esp the banks with leveraged ones.

just my early rantings, 4:25 here now, too early to work out.

Golden Turtle
Dec 20, 2018 - 5:41am

When I made that call two hours ago, dollar was hovering at 96.1

96.15ish. Damn look how fast it crashed through 96! The ONLY way this could have happened is intentionally, thus Powell and team deserve the praise I guess.

I for one want the whole shenanigans to crash.... BUT if this keeps going down, huge gold and silver numbers are com8ng.

Mickey
Dec 20, 2018 - 6:08am

Prices

When i woke up, gold showed on kitco as up 13.30, investing.com up 3.45.

Kitco resets at 6 PM eastern each day and investing.com at comex close.

i use gld and slv during the day as they are reset at nyse close and so is my portfolio.

I wish they all used nyse close for daily reset.

Mickey
Dec 20, 2018 - 6:13am

Furthermore

When i say too much excess, i mean a combo of things like leverage, misleading accounting and financial engineering, too many promisses we cannot pay off. If the fed over the past decades allowed survival of the fittest, the system would have been cleansed long ago and reguarly. If congress actually had a fiscal policy including something close to a balanced budget, that would have been nice. All this nonsense of even having a debt ceiling.

Libero, we unfortunately will see multiples in gold and silver since we have too many issues which can be solved but now at a very high price. If we do not solve them ourselves the overall market will eventually kick in and do it. When debt is extinguished, it either by payment or write off. And the system at almost all levels will preclude payment.

when i say write off i mean default, and the creditor losses, and how many losses can a creditor take before that entity starts defaulting.

we will likely see a lot of that in deleveraging with many entities going bye bye and individuals starting all over.

governments like illinois and its pensioneers will learn that nothing is guaranteed.


Dec 20, 2018 - 7:23am

No London Monkeys

That's a very nice overnight rally.

Orange
Dec 20, 2018 - 7:30am

Christmas present? don't forget Q+ = POTUS

Q !!mG7VJxZNCI ID: 0365ff No.4381420
Dec 19 2018 18:23:03 (EST)

[D] Day, Patriots.
We will have our Country back!
Q+

Mickey
Dec 20, 2018 - 8:43am

Yesterdays highs

An observation.

gold is back at yesterdays highs, but miners not even back at tuesdays close

Thomas More
Dec 20, 2018 - 8:47am

Mickey

you must have tired yourself out - the stock market hasn't opened yet (officially).

Thomas More
Dec 20, 2018 - 8:57am

from Craig

"This is from August when The Banks were short the dollar, long bonds, longish gold and long the VIX. They went 3 for 4 and the dollar decline is pending." So if the Fed has an "innocent hand" then of course their actions should be for the benefit of everyone - short the dollar check, long bonds check, longish gold check, long VIX check. Nothing to see here, n'est-ce pas?
kaiserwongze
Dec 20, 2018 - 9:22am

Pretty Major

I mentioned this late yesterday that the overall movement wasn't all that bad, just felt in the miners and not confirmed by the action in the metals.

If we can close above the highs of yesterday's relatively high volatility day, 1300 should come pretty quickly.


Dec 20, 2018 - 9:29am

CDG $1265

Apparently "the market" is grasping the logic laid out in this podcast.

Am waiting to board. IF there's WiFi, I'll have a new post by 11:00 ET or so.

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