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TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, December 19


Well, what a day that was! While on one hand it's completely normal to have the Comex metals jerked around on an FOMC day, to have it happen on a day that we'll look back upon as being so structurally positive is interesting, to say the least.

So, that's where we begin this podcast...with frustration at the usual bullshit but also some positive reinforcement that this day will soon be forgotten.

For example, in the massive bull run of 2016, did you ever pause to remember how awful it felt to get the crap kicked out of you on FOMC day in December of 2015? Probably not. However, that's exactly what happened! In the 24-hour aftermath of that first FOMC rate hike, Comex gold fell $27 and Comex silver fell 55¢. Keep THAT in mind tonight, tomorrow and Friday.

And then to the charts. First, the immediate reaction in CDG, CDS and the S&P:

You can certainly see the macro reaction to today's events by reviewing the daily charts of the S&P and POSX:

Here are your updated CDG, CDS and HUI charts...the HUI being particularly egregious after it had the audacity of breaking out above 160 yesterday.

And finally, if you're confused by all you saw and heard today and you simply want to know WHEN the Fed's QT will end and QE4 begins, perhaps all you need to watch is the S&P Financial Sector. Any breakdown through 340 ought to do it!

Thanks for listening. Hang in there. Dawn is breaking.




Dec 19, 2018 - 6:23pm

Mornin all

Aussie 1st today?

Yes, our miners are getting a pummeling also.

Dec 19, 2018 - 6:27pm


Yeah, baby. That's what I'm talkin' about!

Stack on!

Dec 19, 2018 - 6:30pm


Regarding the HUI, as many have said, miners are stocks.....stocks tanked.....baby got thrown out with the bath water. They'll go down in sympathy until gold regains it's safe haven status. That will happen in a flash, but until then, expect weakness as everyone searches for liquidity.

Dec 19, 2018 - 6:49pm

Big Swinging Dick

Great commentary from Yra Harris: Notes From Underground: The Umpire Strikes Back The Fed chairman is situated as the key arbiter of the economy and rules via its DUAL MANDATE. Given that it has a research staff of at least 500 economists the FED positions itself as ALL KNOWING, which is certainly okay as long as it accepts the consequences and lays aside the use of counterfactuals when its policies may turn out to be very misguided. On Wednesday, investors judged the FOMC statement as a tad more hawkish than the Street anticipated. More importantly, at the press conference Chairman Jerome Powell positioned the FED as being comfortable in forecasting that growth for the coming year would be more ROBUST than the current stock market behavior is suggesting. In my opinion, Powell’s answer to the very astute Washington Post question about the ongoing balance sheet unwind was the tipping point for a greater read into the FED sustaining its current monetary policy path. Powell followed the work of SOMA overlord Simon Potter by maintaining the runoff process was proceeding smoothly, even with the FED raising interest rates. The Fed Chairman sent a message to the markets that he is in fact the new Sherman McCoy: The Big Swinging Dick (see Bonfire of the Vanities by Tom Wolfe). The FED chairman let President Trump and his minions Larry Kudlow, Steve Mnuchin, Peter Navarro and others that he is charge of monetary policy. As discussed in Notes From Underground several months ago, Powell is on a mission to increase risk premiums on an assortment of assets in an effort to let the air out of elevated asset prices brought on by QE. The bottom line is that Powell doesn’t give a lick about sustaining what he believes are mispriced assets. More importantly, Powell sent a message to major Wall Street commentators Kevin Warsh and Larry Lindsey that their opinions are exactly that: their opinions. President Trump must be suffering a severe bout of agita that he didn’t select Kevin Warsh as FED Chair. The hawkish tone did what was expected: The yield curves flattened in response to the failure to present a dovish tone going into the New Year. The DOLLAR turned and rallied and the early strength in GOLD gave way as the flattening yield curves put a bid to the DOLLAR.
Dec 19, 2018 - 7:39pm

After playing strong and confident today...

I'd expect to see Powell's teammates painting more dovish Fed...to save markets and Powell's face for the March meeting.

As for miners...Turd is likely right...The selloff looks orchestrated, because some of the big producers were breaking out....GDX down 5.4%???

Dec 19, 2018 - 7:41pm

Like I said to NW VIEW on the prior post

Rising rates crush all asset classes. If you hold an asset that's tied to rates, you will get crushed. Gold and silver are not totally immune but they are the only honest brokers in a world of bullshit and hurt.

karma polis
Dec 19, 2018 - 7:48pm


Turd, Catherine Austin Fits and Dr Mark Skidmore declare that $21t has vanished from the DoD. That's a BIG war-chest for the "Exchange Stabilisation Fund"! Assuming that that's where all that ink wound up. (Having read / watched Eric de Carbonel's masterpiece, "What I Have Been Afraid to Blog About" in Marketskeptics.com several times, I think it's a fair assumption). To my question: Can't these twats keep this game up ad infinitum? I mean, if you can STEAL $21t from the American people in such a way that virtually nobody knows about it.....

Dec 19, 2018 - 8:37pm

Stealing 21 Trillion

The Entire Fed system which has been very carefully created so the public can not understand what is going on. It .is bigger than the 21 Trillion we are talking about.

We will not ever unravel the swaps, give aways and complex stuff the Fed has done and is doing today. They are a law unto themselves.

What we will come to understand is Weimar Republic inflation, as too much money lands in our national money system. Germany lost her empire after the First World War; these were the millions forced to use German Marks. All those Marks repatriated against Germany.

Guess who is losing their monetary slaves, like China, Russia, etc? Hang onto your seats, the ride of a lifetime is beginning.

Joseph Warren
Dec 19, 2018 - 9:15pm

The American Crisis

Dec 19, 1776 - Thomas Paine publishes ‘The American Crisis’. The new nation is in deep trouble at the time. It’s birth is in great danger. General Washington and his army were barely holding on. The enlistment period for many of the general’s troops would expire on the first of January. Would they all abandon their commander and the struggle ? On Dec 23 General Washington had Thomas Paine’s pamphlet read to all the troops. They would go on to cross the Delaware River and win a decisive victory over the Hessian mercenaries on Christmas. This would provide the boost in morale that would keep Americans in the fight for their freedom.

These are the famous words heard by those Americans back then. Given the grave threat to our republic and our Liberty today, we should remember these words & teach them to our young ones -

“ These are the times that try men’s souls; the summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”

Dec 19, 2018 - 9:28pm

How can these games go on for 60 years

Going back to 1950s kiddie school we were told >what to think< not <how to think>. Brains filled with mushy nonsense, rewritten history and PC gobbledegook, fed to the children and all was good.

When kids tried <how to think>, the schools and administrators fed powerful drugs to the brightest most curious and thus most dangerous to the system kids, frog marched into jail school.

Drugs like Ritalin and Adderol dull their minds, turning 30% of the kids into brain damaged drones, psychopathic killers and useful idiots.

Not satisfied with that, FaCIAbook and social media were unleashed with the sole purpose of addicting kids and parents to a mind controlling time suck singularity that the Google Twins and Zuck admitted was the plan all along.

Today Facebook is being outted on that scam but damage is done. FaCIAbook is ubiquitous, inflicting its maximum BORGitude on 2.5 billion people worldwide.

The remaining kids were told "Do not think, it's against the law, against human nature and it's just not nice to be smarter and better educated than your peers. Just take your meds and vaccinations and behave". Thus the total eradication of educational standards was complete with Soma and Moroccan Synthmesc

Once this plan was done, anything was possible. Simpletons and morons walk the earth, simulacrums of humanity, awed by 3 card monte miracles and the deus ex machina of technology, media and financialization of everything, hell bent on creating something even more worthless from the dregs of something that used to have value. The crowd shouts its approval

I was brain dead until 2011 and then woke up to a wasteland.

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Forum Discussion

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