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Hippity-Hoppity, Jackass On His Way

130

For your holiday weekend listening pleasure, here's 75 minutes of fresh Jackass, recorded yesterday in our A2A webinar format.

Among the items discussed over the course of the event:

  • the long-term significance of yuan-denominated crude oil futures
  • Fed policy and long-term interest rates
  • the US trade deficit and its impact
  • the possibility/likelihood of a Russian "silver ruble"
  • what impact de-dollarization may have upon US expats living abroad
  • the definition of the term "global reset"
  • and much, much more!

Thanks again to The Jackass for volunteering his time and sharing his wisdom.

TF

  130 Comments

matt_ · Mar 30, 2018 - 10:54am

chrtoo · Mar 30, 2018 - 10:58am

A coveted position, always!

Thanks Craig for making this an open post so that we can share with our friends.

CHR.

AgAuMan · Mar 30, 2018 - 11:01am

3

lnardozi · Mar 30, 2018 - 11:23am

of courfe.

· Mar 30, 2018 - 11:28am
SteveW · Mar 30, 2018 - 11:43am

"Tiangong-1 (天宫一号, Heavenly Palace 1) is China’s first space station... As per Aerospace Corporation, Tiangong-1 is currently predicted to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere around April 1st, 2018 14:00 UTC ± 16 hours."

14:00 UTC is 10 am EDT, but if it follows banker's rules we could see a 7 sigma event leaving it still up there next week. Map it at:

https://www.n2yo.com/?s=37820

RickshawETF · Mar 30, 2018 - 11:45am

Damn, missed it by that much . . .

If your LCS is open today, treat yourself to a "pet rock"! LOL

billhilly · Mar 30, 2018 - 12:08pm

AGXIIK · Mar 30, 2018 - 1:39pm

never heard of Flash mobs, Walmart and Black Friday

How they eat plasma TVs I've never know.

silverflower · Mar 30, 2018 - 1:42pm

https://medium[dot]com/[at]super[dot]crypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-can-it-be-burnt-no-way-c53de65c166a

silverflower · Mar 30, 2018 - 2:22pm

That’s a great article and I just tweeted it.

You know, it’s funny. Bitcoin HODLers just go bananas and get VERY defensive whenever I suggest that the drop that began with the initiation of the futures is related to The Banks and their schemes. It’s as if they know it could be true but are scared to death to admit that their alleged system-breaking cryptocurrency and blockchain might not be all it’s cracked up to be in terms of being beyond the reach of The Criminal Bankers.

I wrote this simple explanation back in February and I stand by its logic and reasoning in reposting it here:

matt_ · Mar 30, 2018 - 2:35pm

Why did the author choose 2011 as the year when the price of gold started to be suppressed? There were the same players in the gold market long before 2011.

matt_ · Mar 30, 2018 - 2:37pm

And I’m not saying that I agree with the entire article...but...as a tool for explaining Bank price manipulation to the crypto crowd, it does a nice job.

· Mar 30, 2018 - 2:48pm

And this is something with which the HODLers simply don't have experience.

We posted this uranium chart several times back in December in the run-up to the BTC futures. When uranium was priced solely upon physical supply and demand, the price skyrocketed. As soon as synthetic/digital supply was introduced to the market...well, you can see the long-term impact for yourself below:

BTC is only marginally different. Prior to 12/18/17, the primary fundamental affecting the price of Bitcoin was the supply and demand of the actual token. Now? Not so much.

NW VIEW · Mar 30, 2018 - 3:04pm

Yep, Resurrection Sunday is coming. Our favorite, life changing celebration, giving a Great hope for the future, for whosoever will. Jesus did not say that He had a bucket full or a box full or a pill that could be taken, when needed, for Resurrection. Nope, He said something else and it takes revelation to grasp it. He said that He Himself is "Resurrection"!

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

25 Jesus said to her, “I am the resurrection and the life. He who believes in Me, though he may die, he shall live. 26 And whoever lives and believes in Me shall never die. Do you believe this?”

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Therefore, he who has received Christ within, being the Temple of the Holy Spirit, carries Resurrection Life with themselves, 24 hours per day and forever.The Lord "is' the Resurrection and not One who just has a bag full of eternal Life, being something eternal as the believer is always prepared for whatever comes forth. Jim (Have a wonderful Resurrection Sunday with your family).

· Mar 30, 2018 - 3:58pm

No wonder The Banks had such an easy time jamming price backward $30 Tuesday and Wednesday. The gold CoT is terrible. While it has no doubt improved since the survey, this is a bad CoT. All sorts of bullishness after the FOMC and The Banks just blew everyone right back out as Apr18 expiry led to OI reduction of 30,000 contracts Wed-Thu. No surprise then that price is also right back to where it was before the FOMC.

In Comex silver, the Commercial NET short position grew back to 7,300 contracts....only due to silver Small Specs rushing to add longs. HOWEVER, at just 7,352 net short, this would have qualified as the smallest net short position on record prior to last week.

And, surprisingly, the Large Specs actually moved even deeper NET short by covering 1,886 shorts but also dumping 3,027 longs. This brings their total NET short position to a new ALLTIME HIGH of 13,657.

Lastly, as we discussed in yesterday's podcast, note the OI and price changes since the Tuesday CoT cutoff. Price fell 27¢ Wed-Thu but total OI rose by 9,800 to a ridiculous 229,252 contracts.

So, a reasonable guess at the CoT structure as of today would be:

Large Specs NET short: 20,000 contracts

Small Specs NET long 20,000 contracts

Commercials: Completely neutral/flat and maybe even NET long for the first time in reported history.

Angry Chef · Mar 30, 2018 - 4:12pm

....Threatened an International Official

https://www.informationclearinghouse.info/49096.htm

And as an aside. GENIE Energy is the company stealing Syrian Oil from the Golan Heights and funding ISIS. And who is one of the Directors of GENIE Energy. The one and only Darth Cheney. You have the 2md Amendment for a reason. 

canary · Mar 30, 2018 - 4:19pm

canary · Mar 30, 2018 - 4:21pm

silver10sguy · Mar 30, 2018 - 4:27pm

Turd, always great to enjoy a long holiday weekend with Jim Willie. Fascinating interview and I had to listen a 2nd time to absorb the information. #1 Turdville was commenting the other day about the sharp rise in prices of corn and soybeans as noted on FINVIZ. Jim commented that the USA had lost 2 trade deals recently with China with regards to GRAIN and SOYBEANS. That must be a factor going forward for prices for some of these commodities. Are we going to see some shortages? I wonder, hmm...... #2 Interesting to hear Jim say the dollar devaluation probably won't happen in 2018 yet continue to weaken for a host of reasons including the yuan/oil/gold. My first thought was a gradually declining value of the dollar gives us more opportunity to prepare and also make some good trades on inflation including miners, etc. Also if the RESET is gradual then hoping there is less of a chance of nationalization of the mining companies. We want to get some leverage and profits one day. #3 Jim talked about a likely Russian silver ruble that could have some sort of "SAVINGS" implication. That would certainly wake up some of the sheeple that gold and silver are "REAL MONEY." With the dollar weakening, silver production declining, investment/savings demand in silver would then grow rapidly, stock market and bond market challenges, and the silver market being smaller than a garden hose accepting the ocean it ALL SPELLS PRICE EXPLOSION. At least I hope so for Turdville!

ned braden · Mar 30, 2018 - 4:42pm

"...This status has come up in court cases, where the district banks of the Federal Reserve have argued successfully that that they are not a government agency–instead being classified as “federally created instrumentalities.” (Scott v. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, No. 04-2357 (8th Circ. Ct of App, 2005)(available at https://media.ca8.uscourts.gov/opndir/05/04/042357P.pdf)). A cynical person might say that they are part of the Federal government where advantageous and separate when it is not. However, it is enough to say that the Federal Reserve has an complex, hybrid structure to it..."

https://constitution.solari.com/the-history-and-organization-of-the-federal-reserve-the-what-and-why-of-the-united-states-most-powerful-banking-organization/

https://constitution.solari.com/the-u-s-statutes-creating-modern-constit...

tedc · Mar 30, 2018 - 5:04pm

Someone bought 22k contracts yesterday (Thurs) of SLV April 16c's for approx $200k ($.08-$10). If SLV reaches $17 someone will end up with approx $1m profit!

Also Yesterday, 35K contracts SLV Apr 16.50c's for approx $140k ($.04) which will realize a $1.5m profit if SLV reaches $17!

We all know the Silver COT is bullish but combined with unusually large call options buying activity it has indicated in the past that the timing is very bullish too! It would be even more bullish if there was unusual option activity in Silver miners but unfortunately no signs of any yet. (I am assuming these contracts predominately increase open interest vs. decreasing open interest when reported Monday morning).

Also, as pointed out by another Turdite, On Wednesday, someone also bought over 30k contracts (which did increase open interest) of SLV Jun 15.50 at approx .47 = $1.4m+ which would be close to a $3m profit if SLV hit's $17 by expiration!

The icing on the cake is Marshall Swings recent post. Marshall has made some remarkable calls and has been "hot" recently!

https://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/marshall-swing-tip-off-the-bottom-for-silver-is-in/

billhilly · Mar 30, 2018 - 5:40pm

...might have to consider trimming the final four down to a single question when speaking with JW though ! Yeesh.

Just funnin with ya Jim !

fluxplus · Mar 30, 2018 - 5:46pm

This was going on for last two days between 15 and 17 strikes. The most was at 16. Not a big lots but steady buying at ask price. Even bigger buying for last three days of June SLV calls.

TF Metals fan · Mar 30, 2018 - 5:48pm

The deterioration of the gold COT seems to be very high, which easily is observed in the graphs added by Canary. I do not know if this still holds when observed for a longer period but if this is indeed exceptional what could be the possible cause? Only the strong determination to push price down? Or do we also have to consider the increase in longs of the large specs? 

Angry Chef · Mar 30, 2018 - 6:17pm

...CAUSING AUTISM!

https://inshapetoday.com/now-official-fda-announced-vaccines-causing-aut...

So what exactly IS the agenda here ?

Angry Chef · Mar 30, 2018 - 6:19pm

...Fusion Reactor

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2018/03/28/fusion-reactor-power-lockheed-mar...

Yup...fusion doesn't exist.....

fluxplus · Mar 30, 2018 - 6:20pm

I posted this on other tread already. I smell rat in this COT. How can we have such a great silver COT with such disastrous gold COT? Maybe some commercial banks are hiding their positions on speculators side with some off shore trading accounts? Gold COT implies we may go down to $1280-$1300 while silver would move north. Don't see it happening that way. So WTF is going on here?

fluxplus · Mar 30, 2018 - 6:43pm

Thanksgiving table talks brought huge rally in BTC. All people who bought after those talks are under water now if they didn't sell yet. It would be interesting to see Eastern table talks reaction.

modus.tollens · Mar 30, 2018 - 6:51pm

Reviewed all Large Spec Ratios in Silver dating back to 2000. Isolated all periods where the Ratio was less then 2 and averaged them together for a given period. Also averaged the price of Silver during the same period. 

As you can see below, since 12/5/17 we have averaged a ratio of 1.28 @ averaged price of $16.58. There is only one time in the last 18 years we have averaged a lower ratio over a given period. Between 3/18/03 and 4/29/03 (5 weeks) ratio was 1.21 @ averaged price of Silver of $4.50. One year later on 4/5/04 price of Silver was $8.14 or 81% higher.

Projecting a 81% increase from today's price would get us to $29.98 a year from today. Something tells me we are going to be much higher then that given that we have averaged a ratio of 1.28 for 4 months NOT ONLY 4 weeks as we did in 2003.

Don't give up now. As Turd says we are living in interesting times. Now is the time to pay closer attention then ever before. Future contracts are telling us what comes next in Silver, the interesting part will be hearing MSM BS narrative for why the price exploded.

Ratio Price

2/29/00 - 12/18/01 1.55 $4.61

8/27/02 - 12/3/02 1.76 $4.49

3/18/03 - 4/29/03 1.21 $4.50 (4/5/04 Price was $8.14 or 81% higher)

8/30/05 - 9/13/05 1.51 $7.07

8/28/07 - 9/18/07 1.67 $12.63

10/18/11 - 10/25/11 1.85 $31.50

12/20/11 - 1/10/12 1.53 $29.10

5/8/12 - 8/14/12 1.58 $28.15

3/5/13 - 6/17/14 1.56 $21.58

8/9/14 - 12/9/14 1.38 $17.51

3/10/15 - 9/25/15 1.83 $15.65

11/17/15 - 1/19/16 1.47 $14.04

5/16/17 - 8/22/17 1.81 $16.70

12/5/17 - 3/27/18 1.28 $16.58 (81% increase = $29.98) 

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/12

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Key Economic Events week of 11/5

11/5 9:45 ET PMI Services
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11/6 US Mid-term Election Day
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