A2A with Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics

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Our pal, DenverDave, stopped by today for a full hour of analysis and commentary. You should be sure to listen.

As always, this was a fun discussion with Dave and the hour flew by quickly. Among the topics covered:

  • the ponzi scheme financials of TSLA and AMZN
  • the eventual likelihood of a yuan-denominated crude oil contract
  • Dave's opinion of Novo Resources and the speculative boom in Australia
  • finding relative value in the mining sector
  • his outlook for price given the current CoT structure of both Comex metals
  • and a whole bunch of stuff in between

Again, this baby checks in at just over an hour but I think you'll find it a beneficial use of your time. Thanks again to Dave for spending some time with us.



boomer sooner's picture

Thanks Dave and Criag

For the A2A.  Dave, I visit investment research dynamics pretty much daily to see what common sense you have publushed.

As for trading the metals, watching the COTs (thanks canary!) for the low in commercials short position before hitting them again.  Up over 20% since May with only 2 trades in USLV (IRA acct).  Everything else goes on the house or in the lake (and the U of O, ouch).

Libero's picture

Who would of thunk... Big Brother

Big Brother not only watches, but determines what you watch/read.


EXK seemed to do an about face.  They really have some good projects in the pipeline.

billhilly's picture

Fantastic interview !

What a great hour you guys !  Thanks for the time and efforts.  I'll say it again because it deserves saying;  Craig you are one of the best interviewers I've ever listened to !!!  You are courteous, sincere, focused, intelligent, humble and more... I put you right up there with John Batchelor.  Keep up the most excellent work sir !

billhilly's picture

from ZH...

Friday, November 3

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, October (GS +325k, consensus +310k, last -33k); Private payroll employment, October (GS +310k, consensus +300k, last -40k); Average hourly earnings (mom), October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.5%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), October (GS +2.7%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.9%); Unemployment rate, October (GS 4.2%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rebounded 325k in October, following a 33k decline in September and compared to three- and six-month moving averages of 185k and 160k, respectively. Our forecast reflects a 150k boost from workers returning to their jobs after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which weighed heavily on September payrolls based on the state-level breakdown. Relatedly, we note that electricity usage in Florida and Texas had returned to normal levels by mid-September, several weeks before the October survey period. We also believe the underlying pace of job growth remains firm, as jobless claims fell to a 44-year low in the survey week and our service-sector employment tracker rose to a 2-year high in October. We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, as the two-tenths drop last month was not driven by unusual declines in hurricane-affected areas. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting neutral calendar effects.
  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, September (GS -$43.5bn, consensus -$43.3bn, last -$42.4bn): We estimate the trade deficit widened by $1.1bn in September. The Advance Economic Indicators report last week showed a wider goods trade deficit, and we also expect a pickup in services imports following lackluster growth in recent months.
  • 09:45 AM Markit US Services PMI, October (consensus 55.3, last 55.9)
  • 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing index, October (GS 59.0, consensus 58.5, last 59.8): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to move down 0.8pt to 59.0 in the October report, following a 4.5pt gain in September. A post-hurricane rebound in construction, mining, and retail is likely to offset some moderation following a big September boost. Overall, our non-manufacturing survey tracker decreased by 0.3pt to 56.7 in October.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, September (GS +1.4%, consensus +1.2%, last +1.2%); Durable goods orders, September final (last +2.2%); Durable goods orders ex transportation, September final (last +0.7%); Core capital goods orders, September final (last +1.3%); Core capital goods shipments, September final (last +0.7%): We estimate factory orders increased 1.4% in September following a 1.2% gain in August. Core measures in the September durable goods report were strong, with solid growth in core capital goods orders and shipments.
  • 12:15 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated Q&A session with Women in Housing and Finance in Washington. Audience Q&A is expected.
DenverDave's picture

I saw the story on the CLO's

They actually started making a comeback a couple years a ago. It's the same shit that torpedo'd the credit markets in 2008.  Dodd Frank was complete joke but the passage of it made America with blinders on feel "safer." 

I figured the Mongolian bonds were sketchy, thought that Government probably has a better real credit profile than Uncle Sam.  I looked at Russia's sovereign fundamentals back when the U.S. economic hitmen tried to shoot down the ruble.  Russia's sovereign debt to GDP is something 20% but the bonds were yielding 10%.  Plus Russia was buying shit-load of gold every month.  Low oil prices didn't seem to affect their finances.

DenverDave's picture

Not sure what juiced EXK today

Either good drilling results were leaked or its possible another newsletter put a strong buy on it.  It's a good story and management, as far as I could based on  my conversation with them, are straight-shooters and honest.

abundance's picture

ot..Charles Ortel w/Jason Goodman..extra Wed talk

at 1 hr 20 min mark talks about more revealing/unocvering

at the 50 min mark Charles Ortel really starts the 'meat'
of the discussion
he also covers Canada and their corruption

and repeats his Nov 15th warning to ttees of charitable fdns/non profits

Joseph Warren's picture

Norks - Trump's Primary Concern in Upcoming Trip to Asia

The following article is a little disjointed, but it gets the main point across -


JQuest's picture

I'm Worried...

Gold has been trading in a very tight $5 range for 2 days...

This is approximately .004% variation, it's obvious to me Gold is being capped hard.

I smell a Friday smash coming.

I hope I'm wrong...frown

Lemming's picture


From earlier post:

>>>>I do own both btc and silver, but keep wanting to sell my Ag to buy more btc, but am trying to think it all through.  Please comment if I'm just a conspiracy wackjob or this idea has merit.<<<< Braincramps.....

Fear & Greed Braincramps, fear & greed. I have now invested 1% of my funds into cryptos. Having started in 2016, I am of course up 400% without doing anything more than sitting on it. Do I now wish I had initially invested 10% of my funds? Of course! As a practical matter, I would never have done so. In fact, the amount that I now have in cryptos is more than I would ever entertain pulling out of my own pocket. I have sufficient belief in the crypto process to have not yet pulled out the amount of my original investment. My logic is that I have more riding on cryptos than is in probably 90% of the accounts out there. It is enough.

In terms of the FEAR component, the logic is this: what is the bottom for cryptos? Obviously it could very well be zero. What is the bottom for silver? Diesel has just risen another 10% while silver remains dormant and some here are questioning why the miners are quiescent? There is absolutely no downside risk to silver, it goes without saying. The upside for silver and cryptos? How far can the dollar go down if that is what you value your holdings in?

The real question is how much longer can the PTB continue to prop up the dollar? How long can you continue to run a bankrupt welfare state with tremendous deficits, trillions unaccounted for, scandals, corruption, and propaganda everywhere, by printing more trillions of unbacked confetti?

The end is nigh my friend. Diversification in finance is good, by all means keep a few crypto coins around. Keep the money you can't lose in silver........

Ronnie 666's picture

Bill Murphy

I listened to Bill on Silver Docs

I felt so sorry for him as he sounds like a man beaten and bashed over years by the Bullion Cartel. Then suddenly I thought why am I sorry for him - we in Turdville are the stackers I need to feel sorry for all Turdites including myself. We have all been smashed by the Cartel. Not only are we smashed but we are ridiculed by the general population all the time. Ever try and talk to someone about stacking. The curtain will come down in 10 seconds and you get this blank look. They are no longer listening. So today, I no longer feel sorry for myself I will get even and when this train smash occurs I will be there directing the masses to the poorhouse where they belong. Sorry a little anger arose when I see a good man like Bill smashed and trodden into the dirt. 

Blankone's picture


I too feel sorry for us.  Been caught up in the pms since 08 and taken a beating but still continue to stack and add on.  Setting myself up for a prolific beating or a incredible meteoric rise. I dont even think about it anymore on a day to day basis or I would go crazy. I truly believe in Turd and the direction of things but I just hope I live long enough to see it...Thanks to everyone on this site for their input and guidance...birds of a feather, flock together...

imfd's picture

McClellan forecast

I had this come upon my calendar the other day, i do not remember when I put it in there as a reminder, many months ago at least, but I thought I would share it.

"McClellan forecast 13 1/2 month gold cycle low in Nov/Dec time frame"


marchas45's picture

The Only Thing

I Have To Say Is Ronnie66, " KEEP STACKING "

Docdhj's picture

Jobs Number BS

Expected..... +310,000      Actual..... +261,000 

Birth Death BS ...... + 216,000 jobs

Watch the muppets on CNBS and Fox Business melt LIVE!

silver10sguy's picture

Jobs Report Weird

I was shocked to see the jobs report data come in and gold and silver did NOT get smashed.  That is a surprise!  

AlphaRob's picture

Investing.com gold and futures data seems stuck


AlphaRob's picture

Maybe time for some uvxy eod calls

if there is big spy qqq gap up open I'm buying

cavalier's picture


I disagree with Dave's analysis of Novo but appreciate his experience and thoughts.

He basically states that:

1. They just got nuggets in one place;

2. They don't know what is under the ground;

3. Course gold occurs a lot in Australia; and

4. Novo is overpriced when compared to other exploration companies.

My responses are:

1. Nuggets have been found at Purdy's Reward. Similar nuggets have been found on De Grey's property more than a 100 kilometers away. This suggests it could be a very large play. Novo has also found fine gain gold at Purdy's Reward as shown in yesterday's press release.

2. The conglomerate that hosts the gold mineralization daylights at Purdy's Reward. Therefore what they see is not the surface but rather what they will likely see under the ground where the conglomerate is underground. They have a good sense of the conglomerate based on their recent core drilling. The conglomerate is relatively thick and extensive. In July they did one bulk sample that had 67 grams per ton. Multiple gold nuggets are visible in the most recent trenching pictures. Recent grab samples indicate fine gold.

3. They have also found fine gain gold. The first bulk sample had a significant fine grain component. The recent grab samples have some fine gold.

4. The price of Novo is certainly very high when compared to conventional exploratory companies. But this could be big. That is one of the reasons Eric is involved. All of the information that has been coming out tends to support the theory that this gold precipitated from sea water. If this theory turns out to be true, this could be very big, the resource could be very extensive. The risk at this point is high, but seems to be less each day, but the possible reward is very high. We all await more information about grade which may not come out until late December early January. Infometron and others supply valuable information on the Pilbarra forum.

Thanks Turd for having Dave on. I always appreciate his views.

fluxplus's picture


Give them some time. They will smash PM today. Maybe after 9 am.

Turd Ferguson's picture

this week with Eric

Turd Ferguson's picture

no problem for the G-3


It's now as if the jobs report...with its dissolving labor force and flat wages...never happened.

flipper22's picture

De Grey Up 34%

Wow, De Grey is up 34% this morning. Wonder what's up?

Jihk2431's picture

De Grey - not very big volume Flipper, but

I've noticed that Artemis has also been jumping in recent days.  Both are very small market caps, so playing off of the Novo trade they are decent risk/reward bets.

Joseph Warren's picture

New etf

Ticker symbol =  LIES

Should be a guaranteed winner 

Jihk2431's picture

By the way, HIVE Blockchain is going nuts

Now @ $4.70/share.  Interesting play off the cryptos investing in an Ethereum based mining platform.

Jihk2431's picture

Cavalier, I agree re: Novo

I am a subscriber of Dave's letter and respect his work, but disagree with his simplistic take on Novo.  He didn't cover the theory of why this may be a big resource and the geological work supporting the theory to date.  There is still a lot of risk here on the grades here, so the value is ahead of itself.  That said, if grades are good, then this thing is going to be worth A LOT more than it is now.  

Docdhj's picture


Turdites..... this is yet another example of the scum who we are at war with!


Ex-Soros Trader Sued For Viciously Abusing Women In "Manhattan Sex Dungeon"

Tyler Durden's picture

by Tyler Durden

Nov 3, 2017 9:30 AM

Out of all the stories of harassment, abuse and victimization of women that have emerged since the Harvey Weinstein scandal broke last month, this one is possibly the most repugnant.

To wit, the New York Post reported Friday that a former portfolio manager at Soros Fund Management, a firm founded by Billionaire investor George Soros, sadistically abused and victimized women in a Manhattan penthouse sex dungeon - even beating one woman so brutally that one of her breast implants flipped.

Howie Rubin, 62, a former Bear Stearns trader who was featured in the best-selling Michael Lewis novels “Liar’s Poker” and “The Big Short,” was accused in a $27 million lawsuit filed in Brooklyn federal court of luring women to his sex dungeon, abusing them, then trying to silence them with settlements and NDAs.

Rubin reportedly rented a lavish Metropolitan Tower pad in Midtown to indulge in brutal sex with women whom he paid between $2000 and $5000 per session, according to the suit filed Thursday.

The three unidentified plaintiffs in the case - including two Playboy Playmates - claim the married father raped and beat them to the point that they needed extensive medical attention, court papers say.

After luring the women to the $8 million penthouse, they were shown to a side room with chains, and sex toys along with other BDSM equipment. There, they were gagged, tied up and viciously beaten by Rubin. One woman complained that he punched her in the head.

“I’m going to rape you like I rape my daughter,” Rubin allegedly barked during one of the purported beatings.

In one session, he beat one of the women’s “breasts so badly that her right implant flipped,” the papers state. The former Bear Stearns trader paid her $20,000 to repair the damage.

One plaintiff was tied up, gagged and shocked with a cattle prod in her groin before Rubin allegedly raped her, according to the filing.

Two unnamed female fixers and a lawyer abetted Rubin’s abusive sexual romps by coaxing women into signing NDAs.

The trio sought to “cover up Rubin’s sexual misconduct and criminal abuse of women and to serve as a cover for his wide-ranging human trafficking scheme,” wrote Balestriere.

A lawyer for one of the women blasted Rubin’s alleged conduct.

Libero's picture

Re: Novo

Probably a bit simplistic, but how long does it take to drill a few holes?  

H8Fiat's picture

Preaching to the choir

Can't begin to tell you how tired of this shit I am.  Remember, it's not illegal when the ESF does it.  Would assume that no 1200 position limit applies.


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