A2A with Rob Kirby

85

What great timing to have Rob Kirby back for an A2A webinar. Rob's vast experience provides a unique perspective on the failure of The Generally Accepted Narrative for 2017 as well as some wisdom on where we are headed from here.

Among the topics discussed today:

  • Rob's thoughts on how The Fed was able to institute ZIRP and why rates remain historically low.
  • Why the POSX is falling so rapidly in 2017.
  • What message could be gleaned from Terry Duffy's appearance on FBN two weeks ago.
  • Why Rob prefers physical gold and silver to owning the mining shares.
  • And much, much more!

This was an incredibly informative presentation and we should all be grateful that Rob so generously shared his time today. Please try to carve out some time to give this podcast a thorough listen.

TF

  85 Comments

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Mickey
Aug 4, 2017 - 11:27am

for those of us in metal back early 2011

or in nasdaq early 2000 or in stocks in 2007-8, where learned how appropriate it is to be humble.

It can happen to cryptos.

Mickey
Aug 4, 2017 - 11:21am

birth death model

it assumes there are job losses for one reason or another including companies dying.

When someone loses that job, the BD model assumes he or she opens a business or gets a new jobs, Why. Because back when it was created they were understating jobs because when somebody lost a job that was reflected but getting a new job took a few weeks due to paperork etc. So they did a fix. .

In addition I recall the process works that if I started a mattress store, I also hired one person

So now 1 person loses a job-its assumed that person is employed and hires another person, so in theory, if 75k lose jobs its assumed 150k jobs are created.

There is no way of knowing how many are employed now. Some people are paid under the table. The Treasury could look at the detail of withheld taxes and glean something. But that would require work to analyze and in the end that would be gamed too.

When BD started in 1998 I believe, thus Clinton's years, it started at 2,000 jobs a month. It was a small adjustement until somebody figured it could be gamed big time.

goldcom
Aug 4, 2017 - 11:21am

Turd asked them to stop

Turd asked them to stop but we have a few fuckheads on this board that insist blathering about their cryptos on days like today. I have some bitcoin but don't feel this site is where to talk about them. I have been fucked with for so long with these despicable markets that are designed to fuck with your head as much as your pocket book so the bankster types can secure your miner positions for themselves knowing well they will take off like scalded dogs when the boot comes off the price cap of metals.

Yet here on a metals site we have these cryto fucktoids blathering on regardless. Sorry but today is one of those days it is fucking with my head and it really bugs me this crap continues. I really like it here at TFMR but being beat down so long perhaps me and my LIMITED FUNDS should seek out a site that talks miners. I have my phyz and a little cryptos just need to reset my miners.

scoremore
Aug 4, 2017 - 11:03am

BLSBS saves the world...

Just freaking amazing what one gamed release can do.

canary
Aug 4, 2017 - 10:58am

The commercials likely added a lot of new shorts lately...

They need to cover them at lower prices....Wouldn't surprise me to see new Low in commercial net short position soon....In few months they will win again, as always.

silver10sguy
Aug 4, 2017 - 10:57am

RE: It's Not Meaningless (GREAT REMINDER)

Well explained Turd. Great post!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

silver10sguy
Aug 4, 2017 - 10:52am

First Majestic Down 14%

I just noticed that First Majestic is down 14.45% and sitting around $6.58. It hit a 52 week low this morning at $6.53. So far 5 million shares have been traded.

happycamper515
Aug 4, 2017 - 10:48am

Another dagger

Right in the heart. This one hurt a lot because things seemed to be turning in our favor.

canary
Aug 4, 2017 - 10:33am

Euro...The commercial bet strongly on bounce in USD/EURO

And surprisingly...they win again.They always win..it just takes time.

bookers126
Aug 4, 2017 - 10:32am

Silver Slam

Silver slammed down over half a buck an hit 16.20, GSR soaring to over 77.40.

These f'ing maniacs are gonna rig the GSR back up to 85 again.

A t this point we have manipulations of an already manipulated market. I think this is called accelerated manipulation, because the manipulation is always present at a constant rate, but then you have accelerated manipulation like today.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

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