A2A with Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics

154

After a few weeks away, the award-winning webinar series "Access to Access" returns today with an update from our pal, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics.

It's always great to have Dave on as a guest and once again he did not disappoint. Over the course of this 54-minute call, Dave addresses a wide range of topics, including:

  • the developments today at Tahoe Resources
  • the current CoT structure and its implications for price
  • why Mother and her Goons are moving to raise the FF rate
  • possible gold and silver confiscation
  • how the mining shares may trade in a general equity bear market
  • and a whole lot more!

Please be sure to give this a listen and thanks again to Dave for all of his time.

TF

  154 Comments

silver66MoonShiv
Jul 6, 2017 - 5:39pm

Ann Arbor

There are a couple of us a few hours away in Canada

Silver66

brolgaboy
Jul 6, 2017 - 5:53pm

Had to shut it off

Craig, I have been here in TFMR for many years. This guy DK your guest today was probably incredibly well meaning but neither bright nor astute. Seriously, you're buying TAHO calls and have it featured as one of your holdings but neither know the legal issues at hand nor how much or what they produce? Pathetic!! ....and he just found out this morning??

You on the other hand Craig are one smart dude!

MoonShivsilver66
Jul 6, 2017 - 6:02pm

Silver66

Hey, thanks for reminding me of that; totally didn't think of that. yeah, windsor/hamilton even Toronto is not far away. Where are you? Also, do let me know if you are planning a stateside (united I mean) visit. I'll do the same. We can then meet up.

jchantel
Jul 6, 2017 - 6:11pm

Turdites in WA? OR? ID?

lets have coffee or lunch? I travel extensively through WA, OR and ID for my job and would love to meet some other Turd stackers. I don't post extensively but have been a member for a long time.

Let me know if your interest via Private message and I'll arrange a play date.

Clarkii Stomias
Jul 6, 2017 - 6:20pm

A Different Take on the Tahoe Resources Situation

(Long post: skip if you want, probably should have put this in the forums)

Let me first state that Tahoe has been my second favorite PM investment idea in the past half-decade. My favorite idea was Crocodile Gold which merged into New Market which was then bought by Kirkland Lake Gold (which I still hold). My best PM investment was SilverCrest which then became AG and a spun off new SilverCrest which I bought more of. (For the record, my worst was Canyon Resources which became Atna Resources which became a massive, flaming hole in my portfolio that still glares at me today.) But during all that time, I have observed with most envious eyes Tahoe and the world-class silver deposit it is sitting on in Guatemala. I have looked hard and almost bought it in moments of weakness on at least 3 separate occasions. From a purely investment-minded standpoint, it has all the attributes of a long term success that you spend all your late nights after-the-kids-are-in-bed researching. It is that diamond in the rough that you are just hoping to find first. But I never bought it. As I dug into it, it appeared to be a bit of a blood diamond. It has been my own internal battle with morality that has kept me from it.

A little background: I spent six weeks of a college Summer learning to speak Spanish in Guatemala. Beautiful people. In my research of Tahoe, using my now rusty Spanish, I came across more and more articles from Guatemala by the Guatemalans themselves referencing all the cases of people and villages getting sick from drinking the water below the mine. There have been stories that to stay was to get poisoned. For years they protested (and got shot on occasion) and made attempts to get Tahoe to clean up the water but from what I have been able to find, the water is still poisonous. Could it be a money grab by the locals? Sure. I'm sure there's some of that. But there also does seem to be something there, due to the years of strife and stories of whole villages uprooting.

This next part is my own conjecture, but based on what I've found, it seems like the Guatemalan people were going to try using this latest indigenous rights lawsuit angle to get Tahoe to finally clean up their operation the way the Feds went after Capone by using the tax laws: an end-around to achieve an ulterior objective. We will see if Tahoe responds to the real issue, or just tries instead to prevail by blunt-force law.

Look, I get it. This is mining. We know that this stuff happens. And I know the management is probably just doing what it thinks is best for it's shareholders. It's hard enough to get a mine even going. I also know that there's a difference between an accident and ongoing neglect. Because it's been so long in the making, to me this seems to be a case of the later. I know and lived among these people; therefore I could not in good conscience ever buy this stock. Today, I feel somewhat vindicated in that decision not to invest (though internally battled-with multiple times over the years).

All that said, I'll be watching to see if there are any concessions given by Tahoe to fix the water issue or if they decide it's just cheaper to battle it out in the courts and continue on unchanged. If they do the right thing by the Guatemalans, I will finally feel like I could invest in it freely. As it stands, the price drop today has the cold, calculating part of my brain doing cartwheels (what an entry point!), but the moral qualms still hold me back.

So I guess what I'm saying is, if you are a Gordon Gekko type and want to flip a coin on there being a favorable lawsuit outcome, today's your lucky day. If you have what bankers refer to as "conscience issues", I'd steer clear for a while.

NW VIEW
Jul 6, 2017 - 6:29pm

Lunch Field Update

We met with BIGNASTY at the Tacoma Mall for lunch today. You missed out again. Great lunch, BN is a hard working young man and we were able to talk about important topics. Our next visit with a poster will be in Post Falls, Idaho. Looking forward to that meal. Jim

joeblack
Jul 6, 2017 - 6:57pm

Craig how do I find the article on the site

you wrote on about the banks using the yen to hedge gold

search engines not seeing it

joeblack
Jul 6, 2017 - 7:04pm

Joe, I'm not sure if I've

Joe, I'm not sure if I've ever actually written a full, dedicated post about that specific theory. I've talked about it a lot but I'm not sure it has ever had its own post.

brolgaboy
Jul 6, 2017 - 7:05pm

re Dave

The dude's a trooper. If he seemed a bit off his game I'd chalk it up to his pending surgery tomorrow. He tore his Achilles earlier this week and it he only did this podcast today because the surgery was put off an extra day.

Jul 6, 2017 - 7:06pm

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