A2A with Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics

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After a few weeks away, the award-winning webinar series "Access to Access" returns today with an update from our pal, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics.

It's always great to have Dave on as a guest and once again he did not disappoint. Over the course of this 54-minute call, Dave addresses a wide range of topics, including:

  • the developments today at Tahoe Resources
  • the current CoT structure and its implications for price
  • why Mother and her Goons are moving to raise the FF rate
  • possible gold and silver confiscation
  • how the mining shares may trade in a general equity bear market
  • and a whole lot more!

Please be sure to give this a listen and thanks again to Dave for all of his time.

TF


154 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

one extra link

MODERATOR

This article, written in May of 2016, also gets brought up during the call: http://thenewsdoctors.com/did-the-fed-signal-the-inevitability-of-the-next-banking-system-collapse-dave-kranzler/

tfest's picture

Texas Turds

With all of this talk of meet ups I'm motivated to get together with Turdites in my neighborhood. If you live in South/Central Texas and are interested in meeting, shoot me a pm with your city and I'll put something together.

Dirt_Reynolds's picture

AG

Stack it!

#keepstacking #networking

Bob F.'s picture

My A to A comment

I wanted to say to the members that I think the Short Sellers Journal is a good subscription to have along with TFMR.  My experience is that one provides a pushing force and the other a pulling force for my portfolio at this time.

I see the crackup in the "Non Metals Markets" as a prelude to the boomng PM's and then both subscriptions can propel my portfolio together because if we just get the Crumbs from the stampeding herd to drop on us, I think we will be very satisfied.

I see that I can make money on the downside too.

Bob F.

Turd Ferguson's picture

For all Vault subscribers

MODERATOR

Please be sure to see this from the morning thread: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/623151#comment-623151

Turd Ferguson's picture

While not exactly in line with our thinking

MODERATOR

This is certainly close in its telling of how and why all "markets" are manipulated by the Central Bankers.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-06/how-fed-really-broke-gold-2012-along-everything-else

Jihk2431's picture

Thx Dave - you're one of the good guys

Appreciate the thoughts and time - I am a happy subscriber to both of your letters.  For $30/month, it's a steal!  Take care of the achilles.

MoonShiv's picture

Any Turdites in Ann Arbor, MI?

I did try to meet the Doc (Dave Janda) but he is too busy to meet a tiny Turd like myself. So any other Turdites in this area? Dying to meet at least one person who thinks like I do, with what being the "Republic of Ann Arbor".

matt_'s picture

VXN warning sign?

I was informed us this through John Murphy's blog post that I get access to as a member of stockcharts.com.  The VIX remains low, but the VXN (volatility of the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100) has surged recently.  The ratio of VXN:VIX is at a 10+ year high.  I created my own 10 year chart of the VXN:

At the top of the chart, you can see that the VXN:VIX ratio recently spiked.  The TRIX technical indicator is shown at the bottom.  The TRIX that I plotted is the rate of change of the triple 25 day exponential moving average.  The TRIX is also at a 10 year high.

Could this be the early warning sign that VIX will follow and spike higher?  A market crash could be coming your way soon.  That would probably bode well for gold...

imodelalot2's picture

Taho

All, really read the press release.  I have seen this many times before.  TAHO is taking a hit because it is a large producing mine of theirs.  This happened to Barrick while trying to get Pascu Lama up and running (currently on care and maintenance) and same thing with Pan American Silver's Navidad mine (currently on care and maintenance) and many others.

Just my two cents.

silver66's picture

Ann Arbor

There are a couple of us a few hours away in Canada

Silver66

Clarki Stomias's picture

A Different Take on the Tahoe Resources Situation

(Long post: skip if you want, probably should have put this in the forums)

Let me first state that Tahoe has been my second favorite PM investment idea in the past half-decade.  My favorite idea was Crocodile Gold which merged into New Market which was then bought by Kirkland Lake Gold (which I still hold). My best PM investment was SilverCrest which then became AG and a spun off new SilverCrest which I bought more of. (For the record, my worst was Canyon Resources which became Atna Resources which became a massive, flaming hole in my portfolio that still glares at me today.)  But during all that time, I have observed with most envious eyes Tahoe and the world-class silver deposit it is sitting on in Guatemala. I have looked hard and almost bought it in moments of weakness on at least 3 separate occasions. From a purely investment-minded standpoint, it has all the attributes of a long term success that you spend all your late nights after-the-kids-are-in-bed researching. It is that diamond in the rough that you are just hoping to find first. But I never bought it. As I dug into it, it appeared to be a bit of a blood diamond. It has been my own internal battle with morality that has kept me from it.

A little background: I spent six weeks of a college Summer learning to speak Spanish in Guatemala. Beautiful people. In my research of Tahoe, using my now rusty Spanish, I came across more and more articles from Guatemala by the Guatemalans themselves referencing all the cases of people and villages getting sick from drinking the water below the mine. There have been stories that to stay was to get poisoned. For years they protested (and got shot on occasion) and made attempts to get Tahoe to clean up the water but from what I have been able to find, the water is still poisonous. Could it be a money grab by the locals? Sure. I'm sure there's some of that.  But there also does seem to be something there, due to the years of strife and stories of whole villages uprooting. 

This next part is my own conjecture, but based on what I've found, it seems like the Guatemalan people were going to try using this latest indigenous rights lawsuit angle to get Tahoe to finally clean up their operation the way the Feds went after Capone by using the tax laws: an end-around to achieve an ulterior objective. We will see if Tahoe responds to the real issue, or just tries instead to prevail by blunt-force law. 

Look, I get it. This is mining. We know that this stuff happens. And I know the management is probably just doing what it thinks is best for it's shareholders. It's hard enough to get a mine even going. I also know that there's a difference between an accident and ongoing neglect. Because it's been so long in the making, to me this seems to be a case of the later. I know and lived among these people; therefore I could not in good conscience ever buy this stock. Today, I feel somewhat vindicated in that decision not to invest (though internally battled-with multiple times over the years).   

All that said, I'll be watching to see if there are any concessions given by Tahoe to fix the water issue or if they decide it's just cheaper to battle it out in the courts and continue on unchanged. If they do the right thing by the Guatemalans, I will finally feel like I could invest in it freely. As it stands, the price drop today has the cold, calculating part of my brain doing cartwheels (what an entry point!), but the moral qualms still hold me back. 

So I guess what I'm saying is, if you are a Gordon Gekko type and want to flip a coin on there being a favorable lawsuit outcome, today's your lucky day.  If you have what bankers refer to as "conscience issues", I'd steer clear for a while.     

brolgaboy's picture

Had to shut it off

Craig, I have been here in TFMR for many years. This guy DK your guest today was probably incredibly well meaning but neither bright nor astute. Seriously, you're buying TAHO calls and have it featured as one of your holdings but neither know the legal issues at hand nor how much or what they produce? Pathetic!! ....and he just found out this morning??

You on the other hand Craig are one smart dude!

MoonShiv's picture

Silver66

Hey, thanks for reminding me of that; totally didn't think of that. yeah, windsor/hamilton even Toronto is not far away. Where are you? Also, do let me know if you are planning a stateside (united I mean) visit. I'll do the same. We can then meet up.

jchantel's picture

Turdites in WA? OR? ID?

lets have coffee or lunch? I travel extensively through WA, OR and ID for my job and would love to meet some other Turd stackers. I don't post extensively but have been a member for a long time. 

Let me know if your interest via Private message and I'll arrange a play date.

NW VIEW's picture

Lunch Field Update

We met with BIGNASTY at the Tacoma Mall for lunch today.  You missed out again.  Great lunch, BN is a hard working young man and we were able to talk about important topics.  Our next visit with a poster will be in Post Falls, Idaho. Looking forward to that meal.    Jim

joeblack's picture

Craig how do I find the article on the site

you wrote on about the banks using the yen to hedge gold

search engines not seeing it

Turd Ferguson's picture

Joe, I'm not sure if I've

MODERATOR

Joe, I'm not sure if I've ever actually written a full, dedicated post about that specific theory. I've talked about it a lot but I'm not sure it has ever had its own post. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

re Dave

MODERATOR

The dude's a trooper. If he seemed a bit off his game I'd chalk it up to his pending surgery tomorrow. He tore his Achilles earlier this week and it he only did this podcast today because the surgery was put off an extra day.

Response to: Had to shut it off
joeblack's picture

OK, thanks

maybe if was someone else's article you commented on 

sombody just dumped some silver

Verus nemo's picture

@joeblack

Do a search for Paul Mylcreest (not certain about spelling). He postulated in about 2014 or 15 (about the same time Craig first spoke about the emerging correlation between USD/JPY and gold) that a curious relationship involving the Yen, the NIKKEI and gold had developed. As I recall, he came up with a hypothetical short gold/long NIKKEI theory. It was more complicated/sophisticated than that but that is what my aging mind remembers.

Paul was a guest of Craig's on two occasions that I remember. One was merely an excellent guest post (written) and the other an audio interview. Hopefully Craig will weigh-in soon, correct my butchering of the Brit's surname and point you to where you can further read/listen.

EDIT: Whoops. I guess I misunderstood what it was that you were in search of and Craig already has supplied your answer. Can you tell that I type as slow as molasses flows? :-)

AGXIIK's picture

TURDITES IN THE RENO OR CARSON CITY AREA

Three of us meet at a restaurant semi regularly.   It's fun and entertaining.  Can any others make it to Reno?

AGXIIK's picture

TURDITES IN THE RENO OR CARSON CITY AREA

Three of us meet at a restaurant semi regularly.   It's fun and entertaining.  Can any others make it to Reno?

AgstAger's picture

I'm seeing a silver spike

I'm seeing a silver spike down below $14.50 a couple of minutes ago and then right back up. Is that for real or is my live chart wacked?

legerde's picture

Kitco chart?

14.70?  WTF was that? 

joeblack's picture

Silver spike

I have 14.34 for september silver, 5,000 contracts in one minute 

should have had a stink bid in

Wizdum's picture

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

omg
 

djr66's picture

Looks like its real

I see a $14.34 low.  Must be a flash crash.  Gold dropped a little too.

AgstAger's picture

Volume on silver spike was

Volume on silver spike was negligible. It doesn't make any sense. 

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