A2A with John Titus

149

John Titus is the publisher of the YouTube channel, "Best Evidence". His recent works have included extraordinary documentaries on subjects such as The Financial Crisis and the lack of criminal prosecutions in the years since. His latest production, "All The Plenary's Men" will be released on Friday.

Most readers of TFMR are familiar with John's work. His documentaries have covered...

John's new production deals with the corruptive power held by the Bank of International Settlements and its agents. Its title is "All The Plenary's Men" and, once it's released on Friday, it will be embedded below.

Ahead of the release, it was great to visit directly with John about his work and I think you'll find this to be a fascinating and thought-provoking podcast.

TF

  149 Comments

  Refresh
JackPutter
Apr 28, 2017 - 4:00pm

TFM's theme song?

Lyrics could be adjusted.

Fred Dagg - We Don't Know How Lucky We Are
Fred Dagg - We Don't Know How Lucky We Are
human organism...ex-canary
Apr 28, 2017 - 3:35pm

VIX even more in red at the finish...0.61%

Anything to help the market.

infometron
Apr 28, 2017 - 1:49pm

All the Plenary's Men

Bwanksters! Accountable only to themselves. Actionable now?!

Crikey, that is astonishingly great work, John Titus!

All the Plenary's Men
infometron
Apr 28, 2017 - 11:43am

@Chiron

Excellent points. You're quite right, the global energy market is incredibly complex, very difficult to reduce to supply/demand simplicities. I can't say I fully understand EROI either. The best I can make of it is the way Steve puts it time and again. A century ago, 1 bbl of oil invested would get you 100 bbl return. Today, much less.

At the limit 1 bbl invested yielding 1 bbl return would be like digging a hole and filling it back in. Totally wasted effort. Hence, EROI has to be greater than 1. But what good is a bbl of oil if you can't do anything with it? EROI also requires energy invested in infrastructure, distribution, and the construction of equipment that can turn that energy into useful work, so in practice, EROI needs to be much greater than 1. Then, as Steve goes on to say, if we are to continue supporting social amenities, such as social security, healthcare, etc., EROI needs to be much much greater than 1.

Your question as to what was driving oil prices up in the '00's is a good one. Best I can figure is that with decreasing onshore discoveries to replenish supply, higher oil prices were required to justify, and indeed did justify expensive tight shale, tar sand, and further offshore oil exploration and development (with much less EROI).

Steve often points out that we are now borrowing big time from the future to offset the effects of ever decreasing EROI. Consequently, we are in such huge debt, we can no longer afford to continue subsidizing oil production. The industry is becoming less and less viable, and society has been adapting, lessening dependency on oil.

Okay, that is all well and good, but then why have oil prices gone down? Well, that is simple, because we have an excess supply of oil. Why is that? Well, demand is down. Why is demand down? Well, because the world economy isn't growing as fast as it was. But wait, the world economy is still growing, at least a little. So how can a decreasing growth rate account for such a massive oversupply?

Something else is at play. What could it be? Most likely, it seems to me, is the massive increase in oil development and production infrastructure in the decade of the '00's, especially in the U.S. (tight shale & offshore) and Canada (heavy oil & offshore).

The notion that SA and OPEC are responsible for the oil glut is pure propaganda. I've been pointing that out for years now. The oil glut is because of an at least 10% increase in supply from massive and expensive North American development and production infrastructure over the past 20 years.

That increase in supply forced SA and OPEC to cut prices to maintain market share.

That infrastructure was very costly, but now (for how long, I don't know) we have much more supply than we can consume (especially with decreasing economic growth), so price has gone down, and the multinationals that built all that infrastructure are losing money big time.

I'm not sure how Steve has been factoring the huge boom in NA infrastructure development, hence (temporary) oversupply, into his EROI projections though. We could benefit from low oil prices for quite some time so long as that infrastructure can be economically maintained and continues to produce.

abundanceinfometron
Apr 28, 2017 - 11:39am

Smith mentions how we are living in segregated

communities.

I live in a 99.9% dem county and really feel odd 'man' out

and think of moving to a better balanced (is there such a place)

community and then perhaps I stay to voice some critical

thinking that isn't found easily here

(fwiw, I am an independent and don't know why everyone isn't:))

Wizdum
Apr 28, 2017 - 11:17am

RV SPENDING

Everybody is moving into TRAILERS....
... GROWTH PHASE !!

Toby Keith - Trailerhood
Liberohuman organism...ex-canary
Apr 28, 2017 - 11:03am

Canary re: competition... and perspective

yeah, but I bet they can't outsprint a bear.

Re: 0 K Obama speaking fee. I agree, it is obscene but not close to the trumpster's extravagant costs at taxpayer expenses:

"However, more than anything, his trips have cost taxpayers big time. CBS News reports American taxpayers spend more than $3 million each time Trump heads to the “Winter White House.”

phoenixphoenixChiron
Apr 28, 2017 - 10:48am

Thesis on Oil

Chiron, dont worry about (meant in a sanguine manner), Srsrocco might be right might be wrong, stick to stacking..

In critical and baffling situations, it is always best to return to first principle and simple action.
~ Winston Churchill ~

Chiron
Apr 28, 2017 - 10:31am

Infometron

I have tried to think about SRSrocco's thesis about EROI on oil and I can not understand it. There are so many undercurrents having to do with the price of oil that it is incredibly complex. When I read that article, I interpreted it as an extension of his major thesis concerning oil. I just don't understand it, but I do not think the whole commodity complex can be so simplified.

Banks are on the hook for a ton of loans that are tied to the price of oil. It makes sense to me that the price would be "pushed" up to ease their pain. But the supply/demand complexity of oil is weighing on that. They can push the price up, but then distressed drillers pump more oil, supply builds rapidly, and the global economy can't support the higher price.

I still can not find an answer as to why the price of oil shot up after 2003. It is almost as if that was a "crack up" boom of some sorts and something broke. I understand that the timing coincided with the invasion of Iraq, but there were wars before that and the price did not skyrocket like that.

Just trying to find some answers in all of this mess and I am at a loss as to where to turn. Thanks for your response. Your insight is always appreciated.

infometron
Apr 28, 2017 - 10:15am

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Become member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 2/22

2/22 10:00 ET LEIII
2/23 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/23 10:00 ET CGP at US Senate
2/24 10:00 ET CGP at US House
2/24 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
2/25 8:30 ET Jobless claims
2/25 8:30 ET Durable goods
2/25 10:30 ET Goon Bullard
2/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
2/26 8:30 ET Core inflation
2/26 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/26 10:00 ET UMich sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/15

2/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/17 8:30 ET PPI
2/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
2/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
2/17 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/18 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/18 8:30 ET Import price index
2/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/19 9:45 ET Markit Feb flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/8

2/8 12:00 ET Goon Mester speech
2/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
2/10 8:30 ET CPI
2/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
2/10 2:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
2/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/1

2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
2/3 8:15 ET ADP employment report
2/3 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
2/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
2/4 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/4 10:00 ET Factory orders
2/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 1/25

1/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/26 1:30 ET Comex option expiration
1/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/27 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
1/27 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
1/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
1/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
1/20 12:00 ET POTUS Inauguration
1/21 ECB meeting and rate decision
1/21 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
1/22 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 1/11

1/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
1/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
1/13 8:30 ET CPI
1/13 1:00 ET Goon Brainard speech
1/13 2:00 ET Beige Book
1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/4

1/4 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
1/4 10:00 ET Construction Spending
1/5 Georgia U.S. Senate election
1/5 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
1/6 US election certification
1/6 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
1/6 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
1/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/8 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
12/22 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/22 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
12/23 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/23 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
12/23 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/14

12/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/15 8:30 ET Empire State Index
12/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/16 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
12/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/18 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
12/18 10:00 ET LEIII

Recent Comments

by chrtoo, 32 min 23 sec ago
by human organism...ex-canary, 36 min 43 sec ago
by H8Fiat, 38 min 35 sec ago
by uni59, 40 min 43 sec ago
by Boswell, 48 min 32 sec ago

Forum Discussion

by Pete, 3 hours 52 min ago
by argentus maximus, 12 hours 46 min ago
by Solsson, 14 hours 6 min ago
by Pete, Feb 27, 2021 - 1:49am
by kmac153, Feb 26, 2021 - 5:42am