A2A with Steve Keen, author of "Debunking Economics"

116

What a terrific webinar today as economist Steve Keen made his first appearance as an A2A guest.

Really good stuff today as Steve addresses a number of topics, including:

  • If/how the world can avoid another financial crisis
  • Can China continue to support global debt growth
  • Whether QE has been good for the global economy and if it can ever be halted
  • Is there such a thing as "efficient markets"
  • How might a threatened trade war between the US and China might impact global trade and debt
  • And much, much more!

I think you're really going to enjoy this audio so please try to carve out some time to give it a thorough listen.

TF

  116 Comments

matt_
Feb 24, 2017 - 8:42am

Matt

Of course that's true. Think about it for a minute.


Feb 24, 2017 - 8:44am

German 2-yr

Today a new low at -0.95%. WOW!!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-24/german-2y-yield-plunges-record...

US Long Bond now 2.99%. It hit 3.21% in December.

US 10-yr now 2.35%. It hit 2.60% in December.

canary
Feb 24, 2017 - 8:46am

A red flag to me

When miners and Silver together go down (but it's a different story).

matt_
Feb 24, 2017 - 8:48am

@Turd

I know it is true in longer time frames. What I am questioning is: can you use metal price as an overnight predictor of share price the next day? I doubt it. Otherwise, you could just watch gold price move overnight and trade mining shares for a profit the next day. As soon as a bunch of people started doing that, the ability to make a profit would disappear.


Feb 24, 2017 - 8:54am

The divergence has been striking, however

And I have seen Steven B's data, so I am not under the illusion that this is a predictor of a metals price drop- what I am a bit baffled about is what is causing this divergence. And it is pretty striking over the past five days:

Sorry for the GLD being used, this is the only quick way I know to call up a comparison chart showing the miners vs. gold price. But if the shares are supposed to be a roughly 2.5x leverage on the movements of the price of gold up or down (and this typically works out pretty well- less for the larger ones, more for the juniors), then this is just strange.

Why the boycott of buyers for the shares all of a sudden? I follow JNUG very closely and calculate where it "should" be to calculate my stops and potential losses, since it is so easy to be smoked to the downside with 3x leverage- it should be in the mid 13's at a minimum this morning, based on the rise from 1235-1259. It will open around 11.50. I have no idea why, but this is quite unusual... are we missing something here?

canary
Feb 24, 2017 - 8:54am

Wasn't that Kyle Bass who lately suggested...

That the easiest trade was to go long German bonds?...Means shorting German yields?

simjojim
Feb 24, 2017 - 8:54am

Can we just stop the fight

here at 1260? Let's pack up early and go home for the weekend with a nice up week. No, oh well. It'd be nice for the weekend.

These criminals more often than not piss me off on a Friday laugh

LostMind
Feb 24, 2017 - 8:55am

Thank you Pining

I have been tracking that same disconnect. Last week it seemed that the miners disconnected and stayed stronger when Gold was weak. Now this week, miners are stymied...

Chiron
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:03am

Metals and miners

So everyday podcasts document the egregious capping of the paper markets in the metals. But somehow the mining shares are still a real "market", just your regular "walk on Wall Street"? So all markets are totally rigged, but yet the miners are freely traded? 


Feb 24, 2017 - 9:07am

And the irony is that everything else is looking great

Instead of gold potentially forming a double top, well whaddya know- the old Pig did instead! After failing twice at resistance, it's dropping off.

And TF called the break in the USD/JPY perfectly, once it got through 112.60, it also went south fast:

And like I posted yesterday, gold is looking tough- Above the 50 DMA which is above the 100, which is above the 200! Not much between us and 1307...

But what is the deal with the stinking shares... Infometron, I hope you're right! And yes it's possible this is some kind of capping action, but there are only so many fingers to plug in so many holes, so I kind of think they concentrate on the PM futures markets.

infometron
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:08am

@Pining

I pointed out yesterday, I think (time is becoming a blur), that junior mining investors have been anticipating an ~10% correction that typically precedes PDAC, and are just remaining cautious. That is why I think JNUG is trading at a discount, but that may also change bigly today if this latest upturn has legs.

If big sideliners come rushing in, we could have one of those JNUG up 30% days!

matt_
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:08am

@Chiron

Maybe you are right. If you are a small peanuts investor (like me), the market is stacked against you. However, if you are a small peanuts investor, you also can't move the market on your own or be much of a profitable target to squeeze alone. Can you estimate which way the market is going to be rigged and jump on for a ride? That is what I am trying to figure out right now.

Dr. P. Metals
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:12am

@Pining

re: "Not much between us and 1307"

...except continued and egregious fraud, greed, corruption, manipulation, naked shorting, propaganda, jawboning, lying, etc, etc by the Banksters 

Edit: and darn, I was so much looking forward to that nice fireside chat with the horse, what with his endearing and warm bedside manner and all. laugh

matt_
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:14am

Computer programming for fun and profit?

I have been polishing my Python skills for applying to finance and found this free course:

https://www.udacity.com/course/machine-learning-for-trading--ud501

It teaches how to use "pandas", a statistics/finance module originally developed by some hedge fund quant. It also discusses using machine learning to optimize the best trading strategies. I thought the course might be interesting to other computer nerds in Turdville.

Dingo Joseph Warren
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:15am

@Joseph Warren

Thanks for the PCR linked article. I agree totally about your comment regarding the lenses, that economists (and many others), look through. I would add that those lenses tend to fog out reality and only filter in propaganda. 

Michael Hudson, whilst brilliant, still doesn't entirely " get it" IMO. You don't have to be a genius to " get it". I'm more impressed with Farmer Brown type logic, common sense and be able to step back and look at things logically from a distance. I reckon this might describe you - JW and many other turdites!

infometron
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:16am

by the by, regarding crimex delivery

I came across this interesting little factoid in a zerohedge comment section of an otherwise abstruse and opaque article: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-23/lme-hands-gold-banks-license-print-money

"The Comex has classified all precious metals participants as either hedgers or speculators. The difference is speculators can only ask for delivery whereas hedgers can demand it. Amazing how few pundits are aware of that."

Sauce for the goose is evidently not sauce for the gander


Feb 24, 2017 - 9:17am

Morning Dr. P !!!

Thought of the day:

Dr. P. Metals
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:19am

If I weren't an optimist

I wouldn't be on here surprise

But I am actually a realist. 

Pining 4 the Fjords
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:20am

Pining

Just finished recording with Eric and he addressed this.

The big mining indices and funds are down because several big miners have reported poor earnings. The juniors are doing much better as evidenced by the GDXJ vs the GDX. He explains it very well. It's toward the end of the call.

GDX and GDXJ charts here from yesterday's thread: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/330966#comment-330966

As soon as I get the audio posted, I'll put the link here: https://soundcloud.com/sprottmoney/sprott-money-news-weekly-wrap-up-22417

infometron
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:24am

Head's up

FWIW, US Consumer sentiment to be released today at 10:00 am

Can't wait to listen to Craig's weekly with Eric!

canary
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:24am

The brainless algos

Will become our friends one day....Or, should I say, destroy the market all together....They better have good switches.

Mickey
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:26am

Divergence

also can attribute to miners far outperforming gold and silver for the last year.

AI repeat, AEM noted in its report that production exceeded sales by 30,000 ounces. Sinclair is an advocate of miners producing and storing gold and silver in expectation of higher prices. Makes th enear term P&L look bad, but if we get a pop to 1500 AEM looks genius.

Sinclair also posited that miners have true futures-metals in the ground.

JQuest
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:26am

The Morning Open...

USD Pump has started right on que...

Looks like it started four hours ago with 7.00%+ ramp of the VIX

It's magic I tell ya! laugh


Feb 24, 2017 - 9:26am

Awesome- thanks TF!

Looking forward to listening.

THIS is what we get for having a well-connected dude like Turd running this site! 

AIJ
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:28am

My 5 year old lost his first tooth

and the "Tooth Fairy" brought him an ASE

He asks me, " Dad, is that the Tooth Fairy on the coin? " 

" I said, Yes son, silver is magic"

Image result for american silver eagle photo

garth
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:34am

metals and miners

Another factor is that many fund managers aren't so bright. Plenty money doesn't necessarily mean plenty intelligence.

s1lverbullet
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:37am

Miners

If you combed through the earnings of companies like CDE and SSRI you'd know why the entire sector is underperforming right now. That hit in metals prices during Q4 of last year killed earnings for a lot of the majors. 

Dirt_Reynolds
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:37am

AIJ

Niiice. No BTC under the pillow? Toothfairy is behind the times. laugh

#keepstacking

AIJ Dirt_Reynolds
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:42am

Dirt

The Toothfairy is old school.....but I'm sure she has a few BTC under her wings...

s1lverbullet
Feb 24, 2017 - 9:48am

That's almost exactly what Eric said

He sifted through the earnings reports and saw the same thing.

But if prices keep rising, the "market" will begin to anticipate better earnings and the shares will respond.

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