TFMR Podcast - Friday, February 17

275

CAUTION: This is one of those podcasts where your host vents his frustration through a tirade that includes the occasional profanity. Listener discretion is advised.

No sense messing around. Please just pour yourself your favorite adult beverage and have a listen as we discuss these five charts and the latest Commitment of Traders report.

I hope you have a nice weekend,

TF

  275 Comments

Wingy
Feb 17, 2017 - 4:48pm

First!

Number One

Going4it
Feb 17, 2017 - 4:49pm

1st?

Maybe....

Damn :-)

RickshawETF
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:06pm

Thurd

Well, they pushed CDS under $18, but it held nicely above its 200 day moving average.

Stack on!

Marchas45
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:07pm

Just Leaving The Office

4th??????? Keep Stacking

billhilly
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:10pm

on the lighter side...

I was surfing the net and came across what could be one of Marchas' baby pictures...

have a great weekend ALL!

heyJoe
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:14pm

Re: Ok this is important

Craig, you just don't understand common core math. (sarc)

Kuchek
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:19pm

Hell breaking loose behind scenes US District Attorney allegedly

Hell breaking loose behind scenes US District Attorney allegedly Advocates Charging Former President Obama With Treason: Dana Boente: “No one is above the law.”Lou Dobbs its sedition :Berkeley riots May have been ordered by President Obama himself.”

https://countdowntozerotime.com/2017/02/15/hell-breaking-loose-behind-scences-us-district-attorney-allegedly-advocates-charging-former-president-obama-with-treason-dana-boente-no-one-is-above-the-law-lou-dobbs-its-sedition/

2c piece
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:21pm

Hey Joe

I think you need to use a flow sheet. Or is it an overflow sheet.

Marcrward
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:21pm

Algorithm Simulation

Turdites, CDG and CDS are algorithm simulations designed to manipulate your desire to hold physical!

Our debt based currency is all psychological, of course the system will screw as many as possible! Don't trust any counterparties you canto wrap your hands around.

Henrik
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:24pm

Same old song

As long as this yen peg is in in place gold is not going anywhere. Something's gotta break for this to start moving.

Today the dollar weakened but then the banks started their pure manipulation instead.

Last Man Standing
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:30pm

To Much Pressure Can Cause A Fuse To Blow

Turd,

Take a deep breadth and go get a tall brew and put a nice steak on the grill and chill out my friend! This will run it's course and then we will all be bitching about inflation when this manipulation ends and fiat does what it does best.

Thanks For All Your Efforts

LMS

Mickey
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:46pm

the beer is chilled

and baby backs seasoned ready for grill.

Markedtofuture
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:48pm

TFMR Podcast - Friday, February 17

@turd - this would make a good public podcast.

onesong
Feb 17, 2017 - 5:52pm

What? Who?

Pic was when he was 18 years old... hehehe

Gold Standard Needed Now More Than Ever? - Alan Greenspan Comments


Friday February 17, 2017 11:32

(Kitco News) - It would be best not to be short-sighted when it comes to gold; at least that is what one former Fed chair says.

“[T]he risk of inflation is beginning to rise...Significant increases in inflation will ultimately increase the price of gold,” noted Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve chairman from 1987 to 2006, in an interview published in the World Gold Council’s Gold Investor February issue.

“Investment in gold now is insurance. It’s not for short-term gain, but for long-term protection.”

However, it is really the idea of returning to a gold standard that Greenspan focused on -- a gold standard that he said would help mitigate risks of an “unstable fiscal system” like the one we have today.

“Today, going back on to the gold standard would be perceived as an act of desperation. But if the gold standard were in place today, we would not have reached the situation in which we now find ourselves,” he said.

“We would never have reached this position of extreme indebtedness were we on the gold standard, because the gold standard is a way of ensuring that fiscal policy never gets out of line.”

To Greenspan, the reason why the gold standard hasn’t worked in the past actually has nothing to do with the metal itself.

“[T]here is a widespread view that the 19th Century gold standard didn’t work. I think that’s like wearing the wrong size shoes and saying the shoes are uncomfortable!” he said. “It wasn’t the gold standard that failed; it was politics.”

Texas Sandman
Feb 17, 2017 - 6:03pm

Equanimity is the word.

It's all good.

Two weeks ago, I declared a new MACD uptrend on the weekly silver. This is a longer term trend that should work for a year or two.

Here is how it's progressed. You can see we've slowed down at the 200 week MA. It's still just an uptrend that's run into resistance, at least until proven otherwise. No big deal. JMHO.

Ned Braden
Feb 17, 2017 - 6:08pm
streber
Feb 17, 2017 - 6:19pm

Check the weeklies on Au & Ag

stockcharts.com
enter:
$gold .. $silver

Ag up 8 weeks in a row
Au up 7 of 8 weeks

ag4me
Feb 17, 2017 - 6:31pm

and

that back of the envelope calculation includes none of the melting snow....

dangerkitty
Feb 17, 2017 - 6:39pm

A barn burner, for sure!!

Well Turd, you correctly vocalized and articulated in todays pod-cast what many of us have thought while watching the metal (markets) manipulations.

I was right next to you vicariously during the rant, so thank you, have a good weekend away.

canary
Feb 17, 2017 - 6:41pm

Chuck Butler (Daily Pfennig)...Debt

“The total amount of debt held by American households climbed in 2016 by the most in a decade, driven by broad and steady increases in credit card debt, auto and student loans, and a fourth-quarter surge to the highest amount of mortgage originations since before the financial crisis.

Total household debt climbed by $226 billion in the final three months of 2016, according to a report Thursday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Total household debts are now just $99 billion shy of the all-time peak of $12.7 trillion set in the third quarter of 2008 just as the banking system began crashing down. The New York Fed estimates that debt is highly likely to set a new record in 2017.

“Debt held by Americans is approaching its previous peak, yet its composition today is vastly different as the growth in balances has been driven by non-housing debt,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, an economist at the New York Fed.”

Chuck again.. the web page this story is on, has a graph of the different household debts.. Student Loans, Credit Card, Auto Loan, and other.. You should see the size of the Auto Loan debt category! OMG! But then I’ve warned you about car loans for a couple of years now.."

jaw777
Feb 17, 2017 - 6:42pm

Turd - Oroville

As someone who has modeled storms and flows into and out of lakes through primary and overflow spillways I can tell you it is difficult to draw a straight line comparison between rainfall and lake levels. They have complex rainfall/runoff models that will consider the path of the storm and the storage in the watershed and lake. It has been a long time since I have done this and I never did anything comparable to the Oroville Dam, but the larger the watershed and dam the less impact a rainfall like the one you are looking at is likely to trigger a major event. The movement of the storm can have as much of an impact as the volume. If the storm path starts at the top if the watershed and moves down towards the lake and the water from the upper reaches hits the lake at the same time as the water near the dam then the peak flow is going to be much greater than if it starts at the lake and moves its way up the watershed because the initial rainfall will have already passed through the lake by the time the water from the upper reaches arrives.

Furthermore, whenever a dam uses the emergency spillway it is generally accepted that it is going to be an ugly event. By ugly I mean erosion and lots of repairs. When they "tested" the emergency overflow for the Hoover Dam, the concrete in the emergency spillways failed. Lake Mead is currently well below emergency levels, but I can assure you if there is an emergency overflow event that concrete is going to fail also and it won't be pretty.

There is no way I can say that the Oroville Dam won't fail, but I would bet my stack against it for a chance to double it. I am not saying that it is impossible, just less than 50/50. And I have no inside knowledge other than an understanding of the design process. That being said, only a damn fool wouldn't evacuate the area below the dam in case something else is failing that we are not aware of. Engineers often make the mistake of being overly confident of their designs when tested by Mother Nature. And eventually there will be a major dam failure in the United States. There is what we call the 10,000 year event. It is something like twice the annual rainfall in a 24 hour period depending upon which part of the country you are from. I can assure you that if the engineer who designed this is still alive, his butt was puckering last Sunday as he tried to remember what assumptions he made when he designed it.

JQuest Henrik
Feb 17, 2017 - 6:43pm

@ Same old song

Henrik ,

"banks started their pure manipulation instead."

I've nick named it "Brute Force" manipulation when they do specialized custom manipulation outside their regular ALGO driven ones..

Generally it shows up how Turd's chart showed it when things that usually track together suddenly and abruptly diverge from each other.

chocolatechiphorses
Feb 17, 2017 - 7:00pm
lakedweller2
Feb 17, 2017 - 7:09pm

Trump Supporters and Others

Criminals: What To Do.

Since we have a new President (and new AG, SEC, CFTC, possibly a Congressman or Senator and a refreshed FBI head), it is time to unload calls and letters on our new motivated and Honest politicians, explaining precious metals market manipulation and its' impact. Be sure and contact the White House and emphasize how much you are relying on the ethical and powerful qualities of the new President and his need to prove all other modern day Presidents scumbags in comparison.

In otherwise, a new group of leaders in DC. Ask them all to do their jobs.

NUGTCALL
Feb 17, 2017 - 7:15pm

I am sure that will work

Problem Solved

The Wetback Surgeon
Feb 17, 2017 - 7:20pm

Bravo

one of your best podcasts - all time.

regarding the dam, stop using math! you will give yourself a stroke.

take an aspirin, and a scotch...

this too shall pass

Dirt_Reynolds
Feb 17, 2017 - 7:24pm

Greatest scam ever.

Hmmm. WTI maybe bigger. I did have to shake my head in agreement with you when you said it. Tough to argue, when the price hits the moon.

o7

#keepstacking

Boing_Snap jaw777
Feb 17, 2017 - 7:30pm

@Turd - Oroville

Great input jaw777,

What was interesting about the flows on the topping event was that it wasn't raining, it was warm and sunny. If you look at vid from the topping events it was brilliant sunshine, rain the days previous. I'm assuming that the snow melt had just as much to do with the input as the rain.

These storms are coming in warmer than projected, the rain will be more intense, but cloudy days mostly. So after the storms have passed and the snow given a good soaking, it'll be interesting to see the effect of another warm sunny day directly afterward.

The weather looks like rain up to Wed., then sunshine up to 57F for the next few days, forecast for Berry Creek in the mountain watershed

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USCA0088:1:US

Mickey
Feb 17, 2017 - 7:31pm

Stick a fork in it

If you watch the news, we see days off for immigrant protests, the womans day off next month, boycotts of businesses, etc. For various reasons people are whining because their person is not in WH. We are losing control fast. If democrats win next, what do you think the "losers" will do then? I think we are in a hard decline.

I see a teacher on TV saying passionately that we cannot separate children from parents (which I agree with so send the kids and parents-who broke the law- back; and I know of illegal immigrants with 7-8 people living in a small apartment and there are more than a few "families" living like this putting stress on local schools because the schools were not built for 4-5 kids coming from each apartment) . By the way, their employers are usually smaller family owned companies who have hired the illegal immigrants, breaking the laws but not because they want to be nice to these illegal immigrants, but to save payroll.

One problem is Mexico does not want them back. Has anybody asked why?

Here is the set up we all have known would occur and another reason why we are in metals. The majority is going to be able to vote in whatever welfare benefits they want. And we cannot afford it.

When my grandparents came from Europe, they were children fleeing a real problem, and were literally on their own when they left Ellis Island. But the did it the right way.

Now a good number of immigrants come here for jobs, the welfare (think, if someone comes here age 50 and works 10 years they qualify for medicare and social security) of just for a better life. Some of that is ok. But here is the problem.

We are broke and we cannot handle everybody thats coming here. We have not thought out what happens to everybody as automation keeps growing.

Lettuce picking in California is already being automated, the rest of the produce process will be automated. Where will the jobs be?

I watched Mark Cuban on O Reilly the other night and Cuban tried telling O Reilly about technology and O Reilly did not get it did not understand it and fought the line of discussion. O Reilly thought we can educate people to work on the computers etc when Cuban is talking about lights out factories. I saw my first lights out factory at Northwestern Univ 25-30 years ago when it was a concept. We have that and wil have automated almost everything else in a few years. People wil really begin to understand this in a few years with driverless cars. The CEO of Ford, which expects to be selling its first driverless cars before 2020, also said Ford and the industry will be selling fewer cars because it wil be easier to share cars within a family. driverless trucks, buses, subways, driverless Ubers and Lyft, Fewer police wil be needed, auto insurance will almost be eliminated and so will brokers and adjusters. No more ambulance chasers. Hardly any need for workers compensation insurance and all the people that employees.

When I take the time to think this through, its frightening.

Shopping? You order on line and send your driverless car to a location to pick up what you ordered and it brings your purchases to your door or garage. That will take care of all the UPS and Fedex drivers.

We have a multitude of problems and issues and absolutely zero easy fixes but that's ok as nobody is really working on fixes.

And there is no common sense in process.

So let me restate the problem:

We are adding population from outside the country in addition to birth rates (which are down because our kids cannot find enough jobs as is) when the number of jobs available is in decline. In theory a growing population facilitates a growing economy. But what if we automate the hell out of jobs (and pretty soon robots will be making the automated machines) and keep on perfecting it?

Who will have money to spend and how will they get it, and will we really need more population, or will that drag us down faster?

The only answer I can see is going to extreme welfare. Paying people to sweep streets will not work. We will have driverless street cleaners as well as lawn mowing. So we wil actually give away money (got gold?).

Let the mind go wild, Artificial Intelligence will eliminate professional jobs. Algos will eliminate portfolio managers. As ron popeil would say (about his showtime BBQ) set it and forget it.

Lawyers in general--you get a legal complaint via e mail, forward it to atty, and they run it thru a program and it comes out and tells you what to do--staff at law firms go away. Research is done at same time and the AI spits it out as well as a response to the lawsuit, Just needs proofing.

I saw an article the other day about having sex with a robot--there goes the worlds oldest profession.

Let your minds run wild on this--I am in the middle of it and society as we know it, globally, is in trouble.

I fail to see how things improve. This is going to be difficult to predict but this is not going to be easy change to take. Make sure your kids either own a company thats making a necessity or has a career where they are essential and cannot be automated-but everybody wil be thinking in those terms.

Now--just how do we plan for this. I am old, but it is going to affect me (unless I "check out" in the next few years). at least with driverless cars I wil be able to go out--where, I have no idea.

Smile folks while we ponder this. Is your job, profession career at risk?

The funny part now is the real future is just around the corner.

Kuchek
Feb 17, 2017 - 7:33pm

State Dept. carries out layoffs under Rex Tillerson

State Dept. carries out layoffs under Rex Tillerson

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/state-dept-layoffs-under-rex-tillerson-being-carried-out/

Secretary of State Tillerson FIRES the deep state ‘shadow government/7th floor’ traitors from State! IT’S HAPPENING!

https://investmentwatchblog.com/secretary-of-state-tillerson-fires-the-deep-state-shadow-government7th-floor-traitors-from-state-its-happening/

Heads rolling.Webbot hit?

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Key Economic Events Week of 2/11

2/12 12:45 ET GCP speaks
2/13 8:30 ET CPI and three Goon speeches
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales (December)
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2/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
2/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 2/4

2/5 8:30 ET Trade Balance
2/5 9:45 ET Service PMIs
2/5 9:00 pm ET Trump SOTU
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
2/6 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
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2/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/28

1/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
1/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
1/31 8:30 ET Personal Inc, Cons. Spending and Core Inflation
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
2/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending

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