A2A with Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital

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We were fortunate to have Brent Johnson join us for this week's A2A. Though we had to battle through some significant technical issues, Brent was still able to supply some valuable information.

If you haven't yet, please stop now and take the time to review Brent's latest presentation as it's the basis for much of today's discussion. You can find it here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8114/guest-post-don-yuan-brent-johnson-santiago-capital

As we look forward into 2017, we at TFMR are of the opinion that this will be a "year of uncertainty". As you'll learn from this podcast, even within Brent's forecast of higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, much uncertainty remains as variables and unforeseen consequences interact. So, please carve out some time to give this a listen.

Again, I apologize for the technical issues that seemed to emanate from GoToWebinar, itself. This forced us to cobble together what we recorded before the service went out with some additional audio we were able to record via Skpye. The result isn't as slick and seamless as your usual A2A but the information is compelling, nonetheless.

Thanks for your patience and understanding,

TF


49 Comments

silver66's picture

first- yeah that's right

My lucky day, my 4th ,1st this year. I am buying a lottery ticket (not) tonight

silver66

Turd Ferguson's picture

Today's KER audio

MODERATOR
LostMind's picture

Thurd,. Errr silver i mean!!

Mudding through the pit 

ArtL's picture

Bronze

go now Marchas!

marchas45's picture

Let's Try For

4th Again, Keep Stacking

Great Listen Turd and sounded great.

    

cobber1212's picture

WHAT THE???

??

Kuchek's picture

ANONYMOUS This Will Set You Free From Slavery

ANONYMOUS This Will Set You Free From Slavery

2Hrs

RickshawETF's picture

Seventh

Got my [usual] seventh . . .

Can't wait for my "machine parts" order from yesterday's purchase to arrive!  No idea what the delivery guy thinks, since I don't have a machine shop! wink

tvend's picture

No Brent

I don't agree with him, it's just too detached for me. To say that these rate hikes which will cause credit tightness, are going to be an economic boom... That's odd. 

But then to say that in the face of interest rates raises, which will strengthen the dollar, then to say that a CNY devalue (which should be viewed as absolutely inevitable to that scenario) then I just don't understand this shaky set of variables that Brent thinks carries his view forward. 

DON'T AGREE! 

tvend's picture

No again

No, the "Volcker shock" of an interest rate goose, will destroy the ability to roll the debt over at increasingly lower rates. This will commence the end game. 

I just think it's kinda not seeing the whole picture here, on his part. 

tvend's picture

Forced malinvestment

Great, again someone doesn't agree with how business are spending or not spending their bank reserves. So let's force malinvestment on the business community with a punitive rate or some other velocity creator.  This dude is shooting from the hip too much in my opinion.

tvend's picture

Forth post in a row's a charm

RickshawETF's picture

@tvend

Nothing good has ever come from drinking less . . .

lakedweller2's picture

@tvenf

You've got to get your mind wrapped around crowd size.

RickshawETF's picture

@Turd

You opened the recording with a reference to "San Fran".  Not done. (I'm shocked that Brent didn't "correct" you, even if he's only been out there 16 years!)

Anybody who's ever spent any significant time in San Francisco knows better than to ever, under any circumstances, shorten "San Francisco" when referring to Baghdad by the Bay.  At the least, said out loud in public, it will earn you disapproving stares (and possibly a head shake) -- at the worst, you could be sporting a shiner . . .

Just sayin'

ps -- The way to spot a Southern Californian is whenever reference to a highway number is preceded by "the" (i.e. the 405), which is never, ever done in Northern California (i.e. "I traveled down Highway 101") . . .

Chancey's picture

Yen Manipulation

AlienEyes's picture

Looks like it's almost....

buying time again !  laugh

canary's picture

Perfect Storm

1. BOJ buys more bonds (weaker jpy)

2. Chinese out, enjoying their favorite cocktails

3. FOMC...Yellen and company playing their favorite board games (sinking battleships)

4. OTC/LBMA options expary.

5. Payroll

If gold/silver survive that week....Should be quite telling....."IF".

Next Friday may be our best day ...MAYBE.

canary's picture

Who on Earth drinks that?

                  Image result for favorite chinese drink images

                 Part of me says 'erase the pick'...another part says 'keep it'.....Well, just blame one part of me.

Edit...I found that picture looking for a favorite Chinese drink .....But I'm not sure about China, because it's tequila.

I've read that in China, Vietnam and Koreas a vine with venomous snake is pricey...The more venomous, the more expensive....I will stick with pure vodka....actually rum is my favorite....PURE!

JQuest's picture

@ Who on Earth drinks that?

I do....

My neighbor's Lao and he's like a brother for 17 yrs....

The snakes look a little small, yes I see the bigger ones in the back... wink

Blythesshrink's picture

https://twitter.com/Jan_Reute

https://twitter.com/Jan_ReutersGold/status/824643575313027072

" Swiss gold exports to China hit highest on record at 158 T in December, 442.2 T in 2016-Reuters "

That's 158 more tonnes that's gone for good.

Blythesshrink's picture

Prelim Comex data looks like

Prelim Comex data looks like we've lost around 30k open interest since Tuesday - I'd like to think the COT report on 3rd Feb will be pretty bullish - when we eventually get there.

James Crighton's picture

Off for a while

Ladies and Gentlemen (and Alien Eyes and Angry Chef ! )

I need a rest so you won't see me around for a while.  I'm sure I'll be back when my jaded soul has healed - once this foul manipulation has come to an end.  I had hoped it would cease on the 20th (of January) - it did not.  I'm tired and need a rest.

Stay well - you are a wonderful bunch.

jc (going to sleep on the banks for a while)

AlienEyes's picture

James Crighton

Stay well, JC. I do hope you aren't ill. It's enough to make you sick.

marchas45's picture

JC Take Care

I took a rest myself but just couldn't stay away. Keep Stacking My Friend

aomegaa's picture

Me Also

At Newark boarding a plane fo CR. Going for a month. Praying there will be some clarity when I return. 

goldcom's picture

This morning Dollar Rally Gold Smash cuz Hildabeast cleared

I don't f##king believe it. The world is just overjoyed because the FBI found no criminality again.

US Dollar, Asian Stocks Rise as FBI Clears Clinton Again

cee01460-eaa6-11e4-8fa1-b3efff37d3ec_vec

David Cottle

DailyFXNovember 6, 2016

DailyFX.com -

Talking points:

  • The US Dollar gained sharply on news that the FBI had again cleared Hilary Clinton of criminality in its email probe.
  • Asian stock markets also took the news well, with big early gains for the ASX and Nikkei
  • The reopening of the FBI’s investigation just last week roiled the Clinton campaign.

The US Dollar and US stock futures gained on Monday in Asia on news that the Federal Bureau of Investigation confirmed that Hilary Clinton committed no criminal acts in relation to a private email server.

The FBI reached a similar conclusion in July but opted to reopen its investigation just last week, roiling the Clinton election campaign with just days to go before the vote.

The agency now says it has found no evidence of criminality in a new batch of Clinton’s emails.

Director James Comey told Congress that his agency's review had found nothing to alter its original conclusion.

Reached in July, that conclusion was that Clinton had been careless but not criminal in handling sensitive material on her private email server when she was Secretary of State.

The US Dollar climbed over 1% against the Yen and the Swiss Franc after the story broke, with the overall Dollar Index – an average of the currency’s value against its major counterparts – climbing sharply. The Euro slipped by a similar amount against the greenback.

One exception to USD strength was the Mexican Peso. It rose nearly 2% against the US currency in Asian trade after the Clinton news broke.

Clinton is seen by markets as the “status quo” candidate for the US and the global economy, and more of a known quantity in office than rival Donald Trump.

Stock markets and stock futures also posted gains. Australia’s ASX benchmark rose 0.8% after the news, having been down 0.5% or so beforehand. The Nikkei started a new week with some vigor, too, rising 1.3%

S&P 500 index futures opened up by more than 1% in the US on Sunday.

USD Index jumps sharply on news that Hilary Clinton has again been cleared by the FBI

US Dollar, Asian Stocks Rise as FBI Clears Clinton Again

US Dollar, Asian Stocks Rise as FBI Clears Clinton Again

Chart created with TradingView

Turd Ferguson's picture

Maybe I'm just getting old

MODERATOR

When I lived there...it was 1989 so it was a LONG time ago..."San Fran" was OK. What you never wanted to call it was "Frisco". That was always a bad form.

Response to: @Turd
Turd Ferguson's picture

Hmmmmmmm......

MODERATOR

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