A Discussion of The Dollar, Gold and Chinese Liquidity with Paul Mylchresst

183

We've regularly published Paul Mylchreest's insightful analysis for about as long as there has been a TFMR. Whether his work is written independently or for his employer, ADM ISI in London, Paul consistently sees things that few others in the investment world notice and he writes with a clarity that everyone can understand. As you might imagine, it was a tremendous pleasure when, earlier this week, we finally had an opportunity to connect for a podcast.

First of all, let me just state that you are definitely going to want to listen to every minute of this discussion. In fact, many of you will likely end up listening to it more than once! Over the course of these forty minutes, Paul and I:

  • Begin by discussing gold
  • From there we transition into the close correlation we've seen between Comex Digital Gold and the USDJPY
  • We then discuss how and why this correlation exists
  • Which leads us to a discussion of the US dollar and its impact on the emerging markets
  • Paul then explains what a "global dollar shortage" is and how it comes about
  • Paul speculates that dollar liquidity may be the only remaining market force that the Central Banks cannot control
  • And from there, the conversation logically circles back around the USDJPY and Comex Digital Gold.

Again, I'm confident that you'll find this discussion to be as fascinating as it is educational. We thank Paul for so willingly sharing his time and expertise and we look forward to speaking with him again soon.

TF

  183 Comments

Old Howard
Jan 14, 2017 - 1:10pm

@ jsiefert

Sorry JS. Wasn't thinking. I'll use a different medium

next time. Thanks.

AIJ
Jan 14, 2017 - 1:20pm
AGAU tommy
Jan 14, 2017 - 2:18pm

RE Tommy pastor etc

They quit railing about interest about the same time those hook nosed Jews started charging interest!!,

AGAU
Jan 14, 2017 - 2:36pm

Cold weather wear

Went down to the fish market today I said to one of the ladies at the fish stall

"how are you ladies on this icy cold day ? Do you have red snappers."

she said

"No We do not "

"we wear two pairs of drawers on cold days like this thank you very much"

cyclemadman tommy
Jan 14, 2017 - 3:17pm

Interest is not forbiden in Christianity, Usury is

Have you ever read the Parable of the Talents? (Matthew 25:14-30)

Jesus used this parable as an example why some people have much and seem very blessed while others have less. The minimum the least capable servant should have done with his talent is invest it with the bankers and collect some interest.

Usury on the other hand is like these payday loan places. They are taking advantage of peoples bad situations/stupidity to charge outrageous interest.

Angry Chef
Jan 14, 2017 - 3:42pm

Interest vs Usury

My understanding of where interest was created goes back to ancient times. A wealthy merchant needed a ship, Captain, and crew to travel to Asia and bring back tea's, silk, herbs, spices etc...that could be sold in Europe. So when he hired said Captain and Crew they went into partnership. They each had a vested "interest" in seeing the journey through to success. There was "risk" involved. The ship could be taken down by a storm or pirates. In which case both parties would be losers. But if the journey was successful both parties would profit from the venture. So the word "interest" reflected exactly what "interest rates" today are supposed to reflect...."risk".

"Usury" on the other hand is different. A Bankster having the ability to loan at excessive interest without inheriting any "risk" in the transaction is "usury".

Today we see an even more hideous situation. A Bankster in Ancient times may be lending money at excessive "rates". But he would have to put up Gold/Silver for that right to charge excessive "rates" or "usury. Now they don't even have the Gold/Silver to lend. They sit on there asses providing nothing to society by creating digital money out of nothing. Then when there loans go bad they just move them off book. And if that goes bad they create things like QE, TARP, ZIRP, NIRP. All the while paying off our Politicians and Judges and Lawyers and Regulators with fictitious "currency" posing as "money.

That is "Usury" and it is inherently evil and in the end...disastrous for all parties. Especially the poor and elderly.

And that is why we refer to them as the E-Leech, Lamprey, Vampires, and or Blood sucking scum that need to be dragged out into the streets beaten, pissed upon, set afire and hung. You may choose what order you prefer.

infometron
Jan 14, 2017 - 3:49pm

Ahem (cont.)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-14/chinas-bitcoin-exchanges-suspe...

I sure would like to hear @jc chime in on all of these developments in China. Can someone let him know his opinion on all matters bitcoin is greatly appreciated, despite his oversensitivity to pesky prescient questions?

AIJ
Jan 14, 2017 - 3:51pm

Clif on China BTC

Chinese authorities require exchanges 2b clean b4 authorities can embrace bitcoin. Criminal clean up underway!

SteveW
Jan 14, 2017 - 4:08pm

Fascinating discussion

I'm sure I've only understood part of the dollar liquidity issue that Paul presented but it triggered questions that I would like to see him answer next time.

It seems to me that the basis of the problem is the US$ being the reserve currency with domestic and Eurodollars. So how important is the possible impact of China going to a gold trade note as well as funding oil imports in RMB? Is a looming Chinese currency crisis going to expedite this change is global payments?

Angry Chef
Jan 14, 2017 - 5:18pm
Dr. P. Metals
Jan 14, 2017 - 5:29pm

Way OT

But this is called murder:

https://www.wnd.com/2017/01/religious-leaders-celebrate-abortion-clinics...

And if you also happen to find yourself in or near any of those so called "religions", your soul will also be condemned to hell.

tyberious
Jan 14, 2017 - 5:44pm

Debt that won't go away,, PBGC,,Pensions WILL go away

Debt that won't go away,, PBGC,,Pensions WILL go away

This is what Trump inherits; https://i0.wp.com/money.visualcapital...art.png?w=1360
"Back in 1979, the debt-to-GDP ratio was a modest 31.8%, and the federal government only had an outstanding tab of $826 billion. Fast forward to today, and the perpetual borrowing has added up.
The debt-to-GDP is now 104.2%, with the total debt burden nearing the $20 trillion mark." NOT including unfunded liabilities.
"On a “per person” basis, each person in the U.S. owes $61,300 – the second highest in the world. Per taxpayer, however, that amount balloons to $167,000."
Visualizing Donald Trump's $20 Trillion Problem | Zero Hedge

1/13 Trump will soon be begging the Fed for QE4 – CNBC It's NOT that simple.
"Next up is a redo and revamp of those economic systems, but that is not going to be easy, and may not get done at all. The resistance may be too strong, warfare -economic or physical- may seem like a way out, there are many unknowns. We could, ironically, get quite far in that redo if we simply cut all the waste for our economic processes, but then again, that would have us find out that much of the system runs entirely on wasting stuff, and wasting less kills the system."
"It’s not even complicated. This week there was a report from Elevate’s Center for the New Middle Class that concluded that half of Americans, 160 million people, can’t afford to have a broken arm treated (at $1,400). And sure, you can say that perhaps that number is a bit too high, but there have been many such reports, that for instance say the majority of Americans have less than $1000 in savings, and can’t even afford a car repair."
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...an-be-a-*****/

The Economist is the mouthpiece of the elites. They are all excited that inflation is returning. They are definitely out of touch. Inflation is on the way back in the rich world, and that is good news | The Economist
Here is something that is a more accurate portrayal. The Psychology of Soft Slavery : Waking Times

Multiemployer plans are insured by the US Federal Government’s Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). But PBGC is itself in danger of going broke.
"In the fiscal year 2015, PBGC paid out nearly $6 billion in benefits to participants of failed pension plans, increasing the agency’s deficit to $76 billion. The PBGC now has $164 billion in obligations and just $88 billion in assets.

When this was reported to Congress, it passed the Kline-Miller Multiemployer Pension Reform Act of 2014, allowing pension plans to ask permission to cut benefits to its plan participants."
They're not only cutting, they're actually taking back money that they paid out.
"The ripple effect could be enormous: PBGC is the ultimate backstop for some 22,000 single-employer pension plans and another 1,400 multi-employer pension plans covering 40 million participants."
Here is an important detail. "And this, remember, is happening at the tail end of a 30-year bull market in bonds and a 7-year bull market in stocks, which took the main asset classes held by pension funds to record valuation levels. So the rubber truly meets the road during the next recession when stocks will, if history is a reliable guide, drop by 20% or more (probably 50%). The current gaps in thousands of pension funds will become gaping holes"
https://dollarcollapse.com/pension-fu...ing-gets-real/

"Unfortunately, there is as yet no known cure to this virus. ‘The WHO therefore recommends complete avoidance of “Reality” as the only effective strategy for those wishing to remain as Mainstream Economists’, Dr Cahuc concluded."
https://www.elgaronline.com/view/jou...2017.01.08.xml

galen313
Jan 14, 2017 - 6:02pm

Opinions on thedailygold premium subscription?

I've got a stack going but can't resist the gold/silver stocks. I need guidance so was considering thedailygold with Jordan Roy-Brynne or Zeal intelligence. Any recommendations from turdville? I need guidance instead of picking on my own.

Dr. P. Metals
Jan 14, 2017 - 6:15pm

@AIJ

re Bix, yes I agree he has provided some good info, and he seems one of the good guys, but he doesn't need the worthless "to the moon" shill stuff, that has been proven to be wrong now for 8 years. He "may" be right some day, maybe. But it's diminishing the value of his other advice, imho, by putting that out there into the mix.

indiana rod
Jan 14, 2017 - 6:22pm

galen313

My dear wife told me to not give financial advice but if you buy First Majestic and put it away you can't go wrong.

CDE, EXK. SLW, GPL,FSM have also been good to me.

Dr. P. Metals
Jan 14, 2017 - 6:33pm

@galen

This isn't advice: the compuwiz guy who posts here, $10/mo...he has had some very nice picks and info, imho.

Fatso
Jan 14, 2017 - 6:59pm

Clif High's latest publication (halfpasthuman.com), I bought one

In spite of criticism leveled at his predictions, I enjoyed the read and thought that it was worth 15$US!

Ag027
Jan 14, 2017 - 7:05pm

Fantastic Interview

Turd,

One of the best interview. very informative. Please invite him for A2A. Cheers....!!!!

galen313
Jan 14, 2017 - 7:12pm

Thanks for the advice Dr P, Indiana rod and fatso!

It's tough to know which "expert" to trust. Any other turdville members make real $ following a newsletter?

Benitho
Jan 14, 2017 - 7:37pm

galen313

Nothing but winners with CaseyResearch here, most recent ones are Fission Uranium and Columbus Gold.

B.

AIJ Dr. P. Metals
Jan 14, 2017 - 7:39pm

DR P / Predictions

No one knows the future save an old testament prophet (who if wrong once was stoned to death) and I gather no one today could meet the requirements and live. That being said Clif has been rather accurate on his BTC predictions and I take the moonshot pm predictions with a grain of salt. TPTB seem intent on managing this mess till the last possible moment almost insuring a moonshot moment. Still I read and chuckle and pick and choose. What else can you do?

canary
Jan 14, 2017 - 7:40pm

Yellen will discuss the economy with lawmakers

This Wed. 3PM and Th. 8PM.....The popular topic of Fed members lately (Bullard, Kaplan, Harker) was about unwinding the Fed Balance Sheet (more than $4 Trillion).

Bullard: "We're in a better position to do it now...To end the reinvestment".

Doubt, they talk about selling bonds...since that would risk of jumping yields....What they likely talk is not buying new bonds, when the bonds mature.

galen313 Dr. P. Metals
Jan 14, 2017 - 8:21pm
DeGraives
Jan 14, 2017 - 8:22pm

Bo Speaks,,,, Again

THE END... Friday the 13th! | Bo Polny
Old Howard
Jan 14, 2017 - 8:34pm

@way OT

"But Rabbi Namath, arguing for abortion, said that in Jewish tradition, making healthful decisions about one’s body is a way to honor God."

A perfect dichotomy. The obvious question. Who speaks

for the little one. Complete insanity!

Yukajub
Jan 14, 2017 - 8:42pm
Doople
Jan 14, 2017 - 9:00pm

Galen313

I like Goldstockdata.com. Newager123 is the publisher and a subscriber here.

Dr. P. Metals
Jan 14, 2017 - 9:11pm

He posts here

just PM him or look through a couple recent threads.

Captain Caveman
Jan 14, 2017 - 9:15pm

galen

Don Durrett's

Goldstockdata.com

He's also a member here

ArtL
Jan 14, 2017 - 9:34pm

OT space X launch

this rates a WOW! especially the first stage recovery.

SpaceX launch: Falcon9 successfully lands on drone ship in the Pacific (Streamed live)

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