A2A with Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney

65

Alasdair Macleod has long been one of our favorite and most frequent podcast guests. As Head of Reserach at Goldmoney, few people are as fluent in the language of macroeconomics as Alasdair so, with the wildly-unpredictable 2017 upon us, there was no better time than the present to hear from Alasdair once again.

We covered a wide range of topics today from China, to Europe, to the emerging markets and to the US and the dollar. This baby checks in at nearly a full hour so you may need to carve it up into chunks but, regardless, I strongly encourage you to listen to every minute.

Great stuff from a good friend and we should all appreciate Alasdair's willingness to share so much of his time, wisdom and experience with us today.

TF

  65 Comments

Blaggers
Jan 12, 2017 - 10:58pm

Dr Copper....

.......had another good day. Up 2.34% to $2.67.

canary
Jan 12, 2017 - 10:58pm

Margins...

My understanding is that lower margins come with low volatility.....And the volatility's been low lately.

I don't know who benefits from margin cuts at this point.....Any way the trend goes, more money can be bet (either way) in that crooked casino.

AIJ
Jan 12, 2017 - 11:11pm

I was Scratching my head..

...when Alasdair said the US economy was improving....

Why Are Wal-Mart, Boeing, & Lowe's Laying Off Workers If The U.S. Economy Is In Such Great Shape?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-12/why-are-wal-mart-and-boeing-laying-workers-if-us-economy-such-great-shape

cnicocash
Jan 12, 2017 - 11:17pm

GOLD PRICE IN CHINA

A good friend of mine left for China last week, and I asked him check out what an ounce of gold in USD was going for. He went the local Chinese Bank and it was going for $1394 USD. Just like we all know the COMEX is a joke. It's not real!

SteveW
Jan 12, 2017 - 11:54pm

Improving US economy

If I recall correctly, Alasdair said that the amount of bank loans was increasing and he attributed this to Main Street planning capital investment.

Layoffs in the retail sector indicate a stressed consumer who is not part of the cohort that is increasing the size of bank loans.

This is how I make sense of two apparently divergent facts, but then I'm just a listener and in no way an economist.

SteveW
Jan 13, 2017 - 12:11am

Chinese retail gold

At a price of $1394 USD it seems to me that the bank is making a big profit.

Right now my LCS has $1226 USD for a 1 oz bar and $1252 for an Eagle and never had a problem getting gold.

CDG is $1193 and Shanghai gold is $1210. It seems my LCS would still be much cheaper even if its price was based on Shanghai.

Even Scotia advertises 1 oz bars at $1236 USD and Maples (sold out) at $1302.

rig

AlienEyes
Jan 13, 2017 - 1:12am

cnicocash

I wish you had asked how much gold was selling for.

canary
Jan 13, 2017 - 1:30am

Tea and no milk, please

I also noticed Alasdair's low enthusiasm for ABX and alternatives. It's a tough choice for the producers to operate without hedging, controlled by the cartel.

canary
Jan 13, 2017 - 1:43am

If I had to pick one financial analyst I respect the most

It would be Alasdair Macleod.... I like his style as well.

The way he explained the question about Japan unable to produce inflation (that bothered me for quite sometime) was more than satisfactory. Thanks Turd for passing that question. And here it is in short:

1. Peoples perception

2. Printed money stay in banks

3. Whatever goes to mainstream, flows mostly abroad through corporations located outside of Japan.

hindsight101
Jan 13, 2017 - 5:17am

PPP - thanks for the Peggy Lee - is that all there is?

Great song....thanks for posting.

Maybe we say that about the short raid on thursday....

cashonly
Jan 13, 2017 - 7:28am

Russia wants war (according to MSM)

I thought this guy was another nut job, wrong I was. Another great synopsis of what is going on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge_DuOy-CUM

Then again my buddy thinks TF Metals is full of nut jobs, me included. He loves the stock market, says he doesn't know why America is full of so many doomers when everything is so awesome. He told me if we can make 20T in debt why can't we make another 20T?? it's America for Krist's sake!!! He watches a lot of TV in his retirement and MSNBC is number 1 in his house. He supported Hillary because she could bring back the 1990's and Trump is a bad billionaire looking out for his "BUDDIES".

Everything looks like the deep state is going to hand WWIII to Trump on a platter.

garth
Jan 13, 2017 - 8:23am

drop

30 year bond yield. Drop!

murphy
Jan 13, 2017 - 8:32am

@cashonly

A few days ago this article was posted by Engdahl.

https://journal-neo.org/2017/01/09/is-trump-the-back-door-man-for-henry-...

Connecting the dots????

According to the Engdahl article, Kissinger/Globalists want to cozy up to Russia in order to square off against China/Iran. Now we have Trump in bed with Putie Putin, ( hopefully no golden shower).

The neo-con war hawk party of McCain/Graham, now joined by the neo-lib war hawk Clintonistas and NATO, who are moving thousands of troops to Poland's eastern border. By the way, German people are angry that they are moving these troops there and through their country.

The always liberal NY Times is now making a pivot against so called fake news. Up until now they have been publishing articles against them.

What is the end result of the NYT article. Liberals who hate Trump, have to give him some slack because he has been harmed by fake news. As well as giving Putin/Russia the benefit of the doubt as well.

Which brings everyone understanding closer ties to Russia are okay.

Or, I could be pissing into the wind. Seems to be the meme of the day!

JustnCase
Jan 13, 2017 - 9:00am

reatail sales disappointing

The retail sales are disappointing and yet they spin it, "Despite the weak data, the US is bouncing from the lows... perhaps markets think that it could have been worse."

What a load of horseshiiit. It looks like they are gonna try and continue with yesterday afternoon's take down of the metals but I don't know - i suk bad at predicting price movements.

Watching the manipulation, most days i feel like I'm caught up in an epic battle of good vs evil. There is no real truth anymore, just war - a war on any and everything that a human being needs to stay sane and survive. Fork every last one of em

jaw777
Jan 13, 2017 - 9:23am

Margins

I'm not sure margins have much impact any more. If I can short you into oblivion why do I care if my margin requirement is lower. If I had to guess it may help a little on the long side because the non-banks actually have to use the margin and play by the rules.

I am sure the goal is to lure more large and small specs into a higher volatility environment with lower margin requirements so they can fleece them.

LostMind
Jan 13, 2017 - 9:23am

Oh look

Another ramp job just in time for opening...

Still looking for the good news.

silver10sguy
Jan 13, 2017 - 9:24am

US Economy Improving?

I am with you AIJ as I certainly don't see the economy improving. There are way too many clues and examples that the economy is all smoke and mirrors and hidden by manipulated data and the media.

Corporate America has been using all their money for stock buybacks and I sure don't see much money being spent on new jobs and capital expenditures.

Back in the 1970's one of the pranks by teenagers was filling a paper bag with excrement and lighting it on fire on the front porch of a homeowner's property. The American economy is that bag on fire that is flashy for the moment but will soon be discovered to be a steaming pile of poop.

matt_
Jan 13, 2017 - 9:31am

10 year chart of the HUI priced in gold

I've been fooling around with charts again this morning. The long term weekly chart of the HUI priced in gold is interesting to me. Some conclusions that I can draw:

1) The HUI has been an awful investment for an awfully long time.

2) Resistance at ~0.21 means a HUI of ~250 with the current gold price.

3) The HUI:GOLD ratio broke through a long term down trend in 2016 and now appears to be riding this as support.

4) A return to the HUI:GOLD ratio of ~0.5 to 0.55 seen for all of 2006 and 2007 would mean a HUI of ~600 with the current gold price. I could pay off my mortgage if the HUI:GOLD ratio jumped back up to 0.55 today.

Disclaimer: I don't really know if this chart means anything.

trx16
Jan 13, 2017 - 9:36am

War drum beats louder.

All this propaganda just getting intensified. 7 days until Trump.. lucky Friday: let's see what new allegations or events will be started. Will be an interesting week.

Turd have a good round of golf today.


Jan 13, 2017 - 9:40am
NUGTCALL
Jan 13, 2017 - 9:40am
matt_
Jan 13, 2017 - 10:06am

I predict digital gold price bottom by 10:45 am!

Based on previous examples of chart symmetry, I predict the gold price bottoms before 10:45 am and reverses course a bit today. If things play out as before, the green line should continue to roughly parallel the blue line. We'll see if I am right.

Disclaimer: Luckily I don't have money riding on my predictions. I'm wrong more often than Dennis Gartman.

trx16
Jan 13, 2017 - 10:18am

Crazy USDJPY

Some super pumping if you ask me.

mavens matt_
Jan 13, 2017 - 10:41am

@Matt_

You forgot #BOIYOIYOIYOIYOIYOIYOIYOIYOIYNNNNGGGGG!!!!!

LOL

Good call... so far, so good!

Angry Chef
Jan 13, 2017 - 11:08am

Siver10sguy...Bag of Poop

How'd you know ? I didn't think anybody saw me !

joeblack
Jan 13, 2017 - 11:10am
Angry Chef
Jan 13, 2017 - 11:30am

Israeli Jets Bomb Damascus Military Airport; Syria Vows It Will

....Respond To "Flagrant Attack"

When I saw Infometron's post about the attack there was no link. Thanks Info...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-12/israeli-jets-bomb-damascus-military-airport-syria-vows-it-will-respond-flagrant-atta

It’s not there fault that God has chosen them. They’re special and beyond reproach. When Israel wakes up in the morning they have to kill someone. Otherwise they’re having a bad day....Weren't peace talks scheduled to start this weekend. I guess someone doesn't want peace. They appear to want to drag all of us into a confrontation. As I have said in the past. Que Bono ( who benefits ) from a War between Christians and Muslims ?

infometron
Jan 13, 2017 - 11:47am

Brandon Smith interview

https://www.alt-market.com/articles/3104-lift-the-veil-interviews-brando...

@Angry Chef, sorry for the oversight, thanks for posting the link...

onesong
Jan 13, 2017 - 12:44pm

I'll second trx16...

good round of golf for Turd... but will he shoot under 90?

onesong
Jan 13, 2017 - 12:53pm

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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)

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