Moving Forward with Marin Katusa

59

Late Friday, I had the opportunity to visit again with Marin Katusa, founder of Katusa Research and author of the best-selling book, "The Colder War". After the sharp correction in both the metals and miners, I think you'll find this podcast to be of great value.

With the HUI index down more than 30% from its August highs and the metals falling sharply last week, I jumped at the opportunity to visit with Marin again. Over the course of this call, we discuss:

  • the reasons and forces behind this recent correction
  • Marin's feelings about the mining sector as a whole after the pullback
  • why he still considers Brazil Resources to be his top pick in the sector
  • the current, dangerous status of The New Cold War between the US and Russia

As we await the re-opening of the "markets" in a few hours, I think you'll find this podcast to be an excellent use of your time.

TF

  59 Comments

ChaCha Mars
Oct 9, 2016 - 2:55pm
tyberious
Oct 9, 2016 - 3:06pm

Zerohedge

The fact is, [lik eth elast few years, when prices collapsed], China is closed for the week.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/theres-one-very-simple-reason-...

ChaCha Mars
Oct 9, 2016 - 3:15pm

Song for today: "For All That"

Here's Ed Miller singing Robert Burns' For All That* at Kennedy Center: <iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/%3Ca%20href%3D"https://www.youtube.com/embed/jd4zgSpCPbM" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/embed/jd4zgSpCPbM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Miller points out Burns had to write it anonymously given the tenor of those times three centuries ago -- but have they changed much? When Sheena Wellington sang it at the reopening of the Scottish Parliament in 1999, the MPs remained seated throughout, presumably in deference to the Queen in their midst. Good for Sheena for standing!\\

Is there for honest Poverty

That hings his head, an' a' that;

The coward slave-we pass him by,

We dare be poor for a' that!

For a' that, an' a' that.

Our toils obscure an' a' that,

The rank is but the guinea's stamp,

The Man's the gowd for a' that.

What though on hamely fare we dine,

Wear hodden grey, an' a that;

Gie fools their silks, and knaves their wine;

A Man's a Man for a' that:

For a' that, and a' that,

Their tinsel show, an' a' that;

The honest man, tho' e'er sae poor,

Is king o' men for a' that.

Ye see yon birkie, ca'd a lord,

Wha struts, an' stares, an' a' that;

Tho' hundreds worship at his word,

He's but a coof for a' that:

For a' that, an' a' that,

His ribband, star, an' a' that:

The man o' independent mind

He looks an' laughs at a' that.

A prince can mak a belted knight,

A marquis, duke, an' a' that;

But an honest man's abon his might,

Gude faith, he maunna fa' that!

For a' that, an' a' that,

Their dignities an' a' that;

The pith o' sense, an' pride o' worth,

Are higher rank than a' that.

Then let us pray that come it may,

(As come it will for a' that,)

That Sense and Worth, o'er a' the earth,

Shall bear the gree, an' a' that.

For a' that, an' a' that,

It's coming yet for a' that,

That Man to Man, the world o'er,

Shall brothers be for a' that.

James CrightonChaCha Mars
Oct 9, 2016 - 3:15pm

Thank you Cha Cha - 2:53pm post - for 'a that

Pathetic, is it not. The politicians in the UK, almost to a man / woman - are beholden to the "elite" - Jeremy Corbyn being a notable exception (explaining why the MSM here abhor him and make their feelings known in biased reporting). We, the people, are "subjects" - and most of us, sadly, are happy to remain in that state. Sheeple.

Nevertheless, we are encouraged by Samuel Adams' words: "It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men". "Die fighting rather than live on ones knees".

jc (still on the banks - resting - but, eyes open - ever-vigilant for the appearance of a bloated banker floating down the river .............. )

jackstar
Oct 9, 2016 - 3:37pm

Response to tedc

Excellent summary, thanks for posting. I've been thinking the same things regarding the pipeline issue for some time now, but I have to look really hard to find any mention of it in the media. Here's a solution to the Syrian problem that
I haven't heard from anybody: the U.S. is supposed to be the Saudi Arabia of natural gas. Why not build a couple of LNG facilities on each coast and supply Europe and the Far East with OUR gas? Do we really care about Qatar's gas? It's a free market solution. Then we can pull all of our troops out of the Syrian conflict and avoid a flashpoint that could escalate who knows how far.

One point that was not mentioned: the Russians have a naval base in Syria and the U.S. would be able to deprive them of it if a pro-western puppet could be installed.

Just like to mention that the Russian air defense systems may not be as capable as the author would like us to believe. I suspect the U.S. military probably has some tricks up its sleeve in that area. Think of cheap, small drones that could imitate/spoof the signature of real fighters or bombers (maybe multiple), causing the defender to 1) emit (in the modern air battle, the first to emit betrays radar frequencies or frequency hopping schedules, which can be interfered with and 2) once they emit, their location is revealed, calling down U.S. missiles, also from far away, and 3) expend ordinance without effect, etc. Is this just armchair musing? Perhaps, but if you can imagine it, the U.S. military probably did it ten years ago.

Angry Chef
Oct 9, 2016 - 4:00pm

It's Not About Pipelines....

The pipelines are a big part of it but what is even bigger is what currency the Oil/Gas will be traded in and ultimately who's Banking system the transactions will clear thru. This is why I fear the worst. This Geo-Political situation between NATO/America, Russia, China, Israel, UK, Europe, Turkey, Iran is for all the marbles. It is ultimately the goal of Russia, China, and Iran to trade off the USD and bypass the SWIFT Banking system. This will throw back the Eleech a thousand years. If you think a Political solution is possible under these conditions I'd be more than happy to listen.

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

tyberious
Oct 9, 2016 - 4:05pm

Thanks, ty

Was just about to post that, too. Tells you all you need to know. Might be a good idea to remember for next year...

Fred Hayek
Oct 9, 2016 - 4:33pm

Can Deutsche Bank be saved behind the scenes?

In early December there will be a sort of a constitutional referendum vote in Italy. The present prime minister, Renzi, is completely behind it and says he'll resign if it fails. Beppe Grillo's 5 star movement is against it. The EU leviathan wants to see it pass. There are a lot of different aspects to the changes proposed in the referendum, from changing how the Italian senate is chosen, how many senators there are in their parliament, how judges are chosen and the prime minister as well. I don't profess to understand all the implications of it. But critics have said it would concentrate power in the Italian government. Whichever party won the most votes would get many additional seats in parliament thus leaving fewer checks on power.

The EU bureaucracy always likes more concentrated power. (Interestingly, when Aldous Huxley, the author of Brave New World, was asked what we should do to avoid the dystopia he portrayed, one of his answers was to decentralize power as much as possible.)

If the EU bails out Deutsche Bank before the vote in early December after essentially saying no to full bail outs of the biggest Italian banks then the Italian electorate will see it as the EU being rigged against them and this will work against the referendum vote that the EU wants. If more centralized power cannot be trusted then why vote to increasingly centralize power?

But if the EU does not bail out Deutsche Bank and it collapses then I suspect that the resulting crash will be seen as the fault of the status quo and also work against the referendum as the referendum is, to some degree, a vote of trust in giving more power to the status quo.

Can they hold Deutsche Bank together till early December?

lakedweller2
Oct 9, 2016 - 4:47pm

@zerohedge

Need a 3-peat starting Monday.

JQuest
Oct 9, 2016 - 4:55pm

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Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/24

2/25 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/26 10:00 ET New home sales
2/27 8:30 ET Q4 GDP second guess
2/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
2/27 11:30 ET Goon Evans speech
2/28 8:30 ET Pers Income and Spending
2/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
2/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/10

2/11 10:00 ET Job Openings
2/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
2/12 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
2/13 8:30 ET CPI
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
2/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/3

2/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/5 8:15 ET ADP Employment
2/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
2/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

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